Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar: model prediction
EredivisieOver 1.5 goals
Utrecht or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Utrecht at 43.4%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 55.2% and it landed (5 goals). We called Yes at 58.5% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
A measured edge to Utrecht: 43% is the model's line for this Eredivisie meeting on 15 August 2026. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Our number sits above the market's 35% for Utrecht. The gap itself is information. 2) No strong lean on goals (55% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) The recent series reads 2 wins for Utrecht, 2 draws and 1 for AZ Alkmaar over 5 games, 3.2 goals on average. Form guide over the last six: Utrecht W4 D0 L2, AZ Alkmaar W2 D4 L0. Discipline says sit it out: outside trust zone (model prob 0.43, zone (0.45, 0.7)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
43.4%+8.7%
25.7%+0.6%
31.0%-9.2%
outside trust zone (model prob 0.43, zone (0.45, 0.7))
Goals markets
High probability
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Utrecht 2 · 2 draws · AZ Alkmaar 1 · 3.2 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Utrecht
AZ Alkmaar100.0%0.0%
100.0%0.0%
0.0%100.0%
League averages this season: 2.78 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 56% · BTTS in 44%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 82.0% | Over 7.5 | 72.8% | Over 8.5 | 62.3% | Over 9.5 | 51.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Utrecht | 50.5% | Most: AZ Alkmaar | 38.4% | ||||
| Utrecht Over 4.2 | 56.7% | AZ Alkmaar Over 4.2 | 48.1% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 59.1% | Over 3.5 | 36.7% | Over 4.5 | 19.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Utrecht | 29.9% | Most: AZ Alkmaar | 46.6% | ||
| Utrecht Over 1.8 | 38.7% | AZ Alkmaar Over 1.8 | 51.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Utrecht clean sheet | 26.9% |
|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar clean sheet | 20.5% |
| Utrecht win to nil | 20.8% |
| AZ Alkmaar win to nil | 14.3% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 43.4% | draw | 25.7% | away | 31.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 69.0% | 12 | 74.3% | X2 | 56.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 58.3% | away | 41.7% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 58.5% | no | 41.5% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 27.1% | away | 20.5% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 21.0% | away | 14.4% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 21.1% | home_by_2 | 13.2% | home_by_3plus | 9.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 17.3% | away_by_2 | 9.0% | away_by_3plus | 4.7% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 6.1% | 0-1 | 6.7% | 0-2 | 4.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.1% | 0-4 | 0.7% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 8.2% | 1-1 | 12.0% | 1-2 | 7.5% |
| 1-3 | 3.3% | 1-4 | 1.1% | 1-5 | 0.3% |
| 2-0 | 7.0% | 2-1 | 9.1% | 2-2 | 5.9% |
| 2-3 | 2.6% | 2-4 | 0.9% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 3.7% | 3-1 | 4.8% | 3-2 | 3.1% |
| 3-3 | 1.4% | 3-4 | 0.4% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.5% | 4-1 | 1.9% | 4-2 | 1.2% |
| 4-3 | 0.5% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 0.5% | 5-1 | 0.6% | 5-2 | 0.4% |
| 5-3 | 0.2% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.8% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 93.9% | under_0.5 | 6.1% | over_1.5 | 79.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 21.0% | over_2.5 | 55.2% | under_2.5 | 44.8% |
| over_3.5 | 32.9% | under_3.5 | 67.1% | over_4.5 | 16.7% |
| under_4.5 | 83.3% | over_5.5 | 7.4% | under_5.5 | 92.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.7% | even | 51.3% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 79.5% | under_0.5 | 20.5% | over_1.5 | 47.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 53.0% | over_2.5 | 21.3% | under_2.5 | 78.7% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 72.9% | under_0.5 | 27.1% | over_1.5 | 37.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 62.4% | over_2.5 | 14.5% | under_2.5 | 85.5% |
most
| home | 43.4% | draw | 25.7% | away | 31.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 9.1% | away_+2.5 | 90.9% | home_-1.5 | 22.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 77.7% | home_-0.5 | 43.4% | away_+0.5 | 56.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 69.0% | away_-0.5 | 31.0% | home_+1.5 | 86.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 13.7% | home_+2.5 | 95.3% | away_-2.5 | 4.7% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 6.1% | exact_1 | 14.9% | exact_2 | 23.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.4% | exact_4 | 16.2% | exact_5 | 9.4% |
| exact_6 | 4.5% | exact_7plus | 2.8% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 33.6% | draw | 41.3% | away | 25.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 70.6% | under_0.5 | 29.4% | over_1.5 | 34.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.4% | over_2.5 | 12.6% | under_2.5 | 87.5% |
btts
| yes | 20.7% | no | 79.3% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 29.4% | exact_1 | 36.0% | exact_2 | 22.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 9.0% | exact_4plus | 3.6% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 39.2% | draw | 34.6% | away | 26.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 80.4% | under_0.5 | 19.7% | over_1.5 | 48.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 51.6% | over_2.5 | 22.4% | under_2.5 | 77.6% |
btts
| yes | 30.4% | no | 69.6% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 26.7% | H/D | 5.0% | H/A | 1.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 16.2% | D/D | 14.3% | D/A | 10.8% |
| A/H | 2.9% | A/D | 5.3% | A/A | 16.8% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 78.8% | under_7.5 | 21.2% | over_8.5 | 68.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 31.5% | over_9.5 | 57.1% | under_9.5 | 42.9% |
| over_10.5 | 45.5% | under_10.5 | 54.5% | over_11.5 | 34.7% |
| under_11.5 | 65.3% | over_12.5 | 25.3% | under_12.5 | 74.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 74.3% | under_3.5 | 25.7% | over_4.5 | 59.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 40.1% | over_5.5 | 45.3% | under_5.5 | 54.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 67.2% | under_3.5 | 32.9% | over_4.5 | 51.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 48.7% | over_5.5 | 36.6% | under_5.5 | 63.4% |
most
| home | 50.7% | draw | 9.8% | away | 39.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 23.4% | away_+3.5 | 76.6% | home_-1.5 | 40.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 59.2% | home_-0.5 | 50.7% | away_+0.5 | 49.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 60.6% | away_-0.5 | 39.5% | home_+1.5 | 69.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 30.3% | home_+3.5 | 84.4% | away_-3.5 | 15.6% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 71.9% | under_22.5 | 28.1% | over_24.5 | 61.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 38.5% | over_26.5 | 50.5% | under_26.5 | 49.5% |
| over_28.5 | 39.7% | under_28.5 | 60.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 76.1% | under_10.5 | 23.9% | over_12.5 | 62.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 37.7% | over_14.5 | 47.7% | under_14.5 | 52.3% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 62.3% | under_10.5 | 37.7% | over_12.5 | 46.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 53.8% | over_14.5 | 31.8% | under_14.5 | 68.3% |
most
| home | 58.6% | draw | 5.4% | away | 36.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 36.5% | away_+4.5 | 63.5% | home_-2.5 | 47.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 52.5% | home_-0.5 | 58.6% | away_+0.5 | 41.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.9% | away_-0.5 | 36.1% | home_+2.5 | 73.8% |
| away_-2.5 | 26.2% | home_+4.5 | 82.0% | away_-4.5 | 18.0% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 82.0% | under_6.5 | 18.0% | over_7.5 | 72.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 27.2% | over_8.5 | 62.3% | under_8.5 | 37.7% |
| over_9.5 | 51.3% | under_9.5 | 48.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 71.8% | under_3.5 | 28.2% | over_4.5 | 56.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 43.3% | over_5.5 | 41.9% | under_5.5 | 58.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 64.4% | under_3.5 | 35.6% | over_4.5 | 48.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 51.9% | over_5.5 | 33.4% | under_5.5 | 66.6% |
most
| home | 50.5% | draw | 11.1% | away | 38.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 29.4% | away_+2.5 | 70.6% | home_-0.5 | 50.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 49.5% | home_+0.5 | 61.6% | away_-0.5 | 38.4% |
| home_+2.5 | 80.3% | away_-2.5 | 19.7% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 59.1% | under_2.5 | 40.9% | over_3.5 | 36.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 63.3% | over_4.5 | 19.6% | under_4.5 | 80.4% |
| over_5.5 | 9.1% | under_5.5 | 90.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.9% | even | 50.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 38.7% | under_1.5 | 61.3% | over_2.5 | 15.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 84.8% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 51.5% | under_1.5 | 48.5% | over_2.5 | 25.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 75.0% |
most
| home | 29.9% | draw | 23.5% | away | 46.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 13.0% | away_+1.5 | 87.0% | home_-0.5 | 29.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 70.1% | home_+0.5 | 53.4% | away_-0.5 | 46.6% |
| home_+1.5 | 75.1% | away_-1.5 | 24.9% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 55.8% | under_20.5 | 44.2% | over_22.5 | 40.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 59.6% | over_24.5 | 26.9% | under_24.5 | 73.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 60.0% | under_9.5 | 40.0% | over_11.5 | 38.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 61.7% | over_13.5 | 20.8% | under_13.5 | 79.2% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 62.0% | under_9.5 | 38.0% | over_11.5 | 40.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 59.7% | over_13.5 | 22.4% | under_13.5 | 77.6% |
most
| home | 44.6% | draw | 7.8% | away | 47.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 23.5% | away_+3.5 | 76.6% | home_-0.5 | 44.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 55.4% | home_+2.5 | 67.5% | away_-2.5 | 32.5% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 10.0% | no | 90.0% |
|---|
home
| yes | 4.0% | no | 96.0% |
|---|
away
| yes | 6.2% | no | 93.8% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Utrecht predictions · AZ Alkmaar predictions · Eredivisie
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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