Estac Troyes vs Paris FC prediction & probabilities (2026-08-22)

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Estac Troyes vs Paris FC: model prediction

Ligue 1
Estac Troyes
Sat, 22 Aug 202619:45UK
Paris FC

WLWLW

Model’s top convictions

77%

Over 1.5 goals

71%

Draw or Paris FC

60%

Over 8.5 corners

No bet

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Paris FCWin probability
45.4%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals76.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.30
Draw or Paris FC71.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.40
Over 8.5 corners59.7%Good chancePays @ 1.68

Model read

▾

"45% on Paris FC is a measurement, not a promise." The model leans Paris FC at 45% when Estac Troyes host Paris FC in the Ligue 1 on 22 August 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. Totals sit close to the fence: 52% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 56%. Estac Troyes are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The engine passes here; discipline beats action.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Paris FC win45.4%@ 2.20
Over 10.5 corners38.6%@ 2.59
Medium risk

Both teams to score56.0%@ 1.79
Estac Troyes or draw54.6%@ 1.83
Over 2.5 goals52.1%@ 1.92
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.5%@ 8.01
0-1 correct score9.1%@ 10.94
1-2 correct score9.1%@ 10.95

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Estac Troyes

28.7%

Draw

25.9%

Paris FC

45.4%

Model

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.576.8%

Strong chance

Over 2.552.1%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes56.0%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.559.7%

Good chance

Over 9.548.9%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.538.6%

Toss-up

Over 11.529.5%

Low chance

Most cornersEstac Troyes 60.6% · Paris FC 29.1%

Totals line guide

0.5·1.576.8%2.552.1%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.576.8%

Discipline: NO_ODDS.

Form & head-to-head

Paris FCWLWLW

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Luca KoleoshoParis FC · key player
To score17.0%

@ 5.88

1+ on target46.5%

@ 2.15

2+ shots28.7%

@ 3.48

Shots/90 2.96SoT/90 1.74Goals/90 0.52
Jean-Phillipe KrassoParis FC · in form
To score7.8%

@ 12.82

1+ on target32.9%

@ 3.04

2+ shots29.4%

@ 3.40

Shots/90 2.25SoT/90 0.83Goals/90 0.17
Marshall MunetsiParis FC · in form
To score23.7%

@ 4.22

1+ on target45.0%

@ 2.22

2+ shots36.2%

@ 2.76

Shots/90 1.74SoT/90 0.82Goals/90 0.37

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Estac Troyes win3.36
Draw3.80
Paris FC win2.28
Both teams to score1.79

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.30
Over 2.5 goals1.92
Over 3.5 goals3.34
Estac Troyes most3.36
Paris FC most2.28

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.36
Over 8.5 corners1.61
Over 9.5 corners2.00
Over 10.5 corners2.60
Estac Troyes most1.65
Paris FC most3.43

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.41
Over 3.5 cards1.99
Over 4.5 cards3.23
Over 5.5 cards5.97
Estac Troyes most3.51
Paris FC most1.98

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.37
Over 7.5 SoT1.65
Over 8.5 SoT2.08
Over 9.5 SoT2.76
Estac Troyes most1.83
Paris FC most3.03

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.65
Over 24.5 shots2.08
Over 26.5 shots2.79
Over 28.5 shots3.97
Estac Troyes most1.61
Paris FC most3.15

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.59
Over 22.5 fouls2.07
Over 24.5 fouls2.93
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 72.9% Over 7.5 60.7% Over 8.5 48.1% Over 9.5 36.2%
Most: Estac Troyes 54.6% Most: Paris FC 33.0%
Estac Troyes Over 4.2 49.9% Paris FC Over 4.2 34.3%

Cards

Over 2.5 71.2% Over 3.5 50.2% Over 4.5 30.9%
Most: Estac Troyes 28.5% Most: Paris FC 50.6%
Estac Troyes Over 1.8 46.3% Paris FC Over 1.8 62.5%

Paris FC: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Luca Koleosho 2.96 1.74 0.52 46.5% 28.7% 17.0%
Jean-Phillipe Krasso 2.25 0.83 0.17 32.9% 29.4% 7.8%
Marshall Munetsi 1.74 0.82 0.37 45.0% 36.2% 23.7%
Ilan Kebbal 2 0.8 0.36 49.8% 51.4% 26.7%
Willem Geubbels 2.67 0.8 0.44 31.3% 35.6% 18.6%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 29.8% draw 26.3% away 43.9%
double_chance
1X 56.1% 12 73.7% X2 70.2%
dnb
home 40.4% away 59.6%
btts
yes 56.0% no 44.0%
clean_sheet
home 21.5% away 29.4%
win_to_nil
home 14.6% away 22.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1 17.1% home_by_2 8.5% home_by_3plus 4.2%
away_by_1 21.6% away_by_2 13.4% away_by_3plus 8.9%
correct_score
0-0 6.9% 0-1 9.1% 0-2 7.5%
0-3 3.8% 0-4 1.5% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 7.1% 1-1 12.5% 1-2 9.1%
1-3 4.7% 1-4 1.8% 1-5 0.5%
2-0 4.7% 2-1 7.3% 2-2 5.6%
2-3 2.9% 2-4 1.1% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 1.9% 3-1 3.0% 3-2 2.3%
3-3 1.2% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.6% 4-1 0.9% 4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.1% under_0.5 6.9% over_1.5 76.8%
under_1.5 23.2% over_2.5 52.1% under_2.5 47.9%
over_3.5 29.9% under_3.5 70.1% over_4.5 14.6%
under_4.5 85.4% over_5.5 6.2% under_5.5 93.8%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 70.6% under_0.5 29.4% over_1.5 34.6%
under_1.5 65.4% over_2.5 12.6% under_2.5 87.4%
team_away
over_0.5 78.5% under_0.5 21.5% over_1.5 45.4%
under_1.5 54.6% over_2.5 20.0% under_2.5 80.0%
most
home 29.8% draw 26.3% away 43.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 4.2% away_+2.5 95.9% home_-1.5 12.7%
away_+1.5 87.3% home_-0.5 29.8% away_+0.5 70.2%
home_+0.5 56.1% away_-0.5 43.9% home_+1.5 77.7%
away_-1.5 22.3% home_+2.5 91.1% away_-2.5 8.9%
total_exact
exact_0 6.9% exact_1 16.3% exact_2 24.7%
exact_3 22.2% exact_4 15.3% exact_5 8.4%
exact_6 3.9% exact_7plus 2.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 28.5% draw 42.4% away 29.2%
total
over_0.5 69.3% under_0.5 30.7% over_1.5 33.1%
under_1.5 66.9% over_2.5 11.7% under_2.5 88.3%
btts
yes 19.9% no 80.1%
total_exact
exact_0 30.7% exact_1 36.3% exact_2 21.4%
exact_3 8.4% exact_4plus 3.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 38.8% draw 34.7% away 26.4%
total
over_0.5 80.2% under_0.5 19.8% over_1.5 48.2%
under_1.5 51.8% over_2.5 22.2% under_2.5 77.8%
btts
yes 30.3% no 69.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 22.4% H/D 4.4% H/A 1.7%
D/H 16.5% D/D 14.7% D/A 11.2%
A/H 3.3% A/D 6.0% A/A 19.9%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 73.5% under_7.5 26.5% over_8.5 62.1%
under_8.5 37.9% over_9.5 50.0% under_9.5 50.0%
over_10.5 38.4% under_10.5 61.6% over_11.5 28.1%
under_11.5 71.9% over_12.5 19.6% under_12.5 80.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.2% under_3.5 22.8% over_4.5 62.9%
under_4.5 37.1% over_5.5 47.9% under_5.5 52.1%
team_away
over_3.5 56.1% under_3.5 43.9% over_4.5 38.7%
under_4.5 61.3% over_5.5 24.5% under_5.5 75.5%
most
home 60.7% draw 10.1% away 29.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 29.2% away_+3.5 70.8% home_-1.5 49.9%
away_+1.5 50.1% home_-0.5 60.7% away_+0.5 39.3%
home_+0.5 70.9% away_-0.5 29.1% home_+1.5 79.6%
away_-1.5 20.4% home_+3.5 91.5% away_-3.5 8.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 60.8% under_22.5 39.2% over_24.5 48.0%
under_24.5 52.0% over_26.5 35.9% under_26.5 64.1%
over_28.5 25.2% under_28.5 74.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 72.2% under_10.5 27.8% over_12.5 55.6%
under_12.5 44.4% over_14.5 39.0% under_14.5 61.0%
team_away
over_10.5 51.8% under_10.5 48.2% over_12.5 33.6%
under_12.5 66.4% over_14.5 19.5% under_14.5 80.5%
most
home 62.2% draw 6.0% away 31.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.8% away_+4.5 63.2% home_-2.5 49.5%
away_+2.5 50.5% home_-0.5 62.2% away_+0.5 37.8%
home_+0.5 68.2% away_-0.5 31.8% home_+2.5 78.8%
away_-2.5 21.2% home_+4.5 86.9% away_-4.5 13.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 72.9% under_6.5 27.1% over_7.5 60.8%
under_7.5 39.3% over_8.5 48.1% under_8.5 51.9%
over_9.5 36.2% under_9.5 63.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 67.0% under_3.5 33.0% over_4.5 49.9%
under_4.5 50.1% over_5.5 34.1% under_5.5 65.9%
team_away
over_3.5 52.3% under_3.5 47.7% over_4.5 34.3%
under_4.5 65.7% over_5.5 20.4% under_5.5 79.6%
most
home 54.6% draw 12.4% away 33.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 29.9% away_+2.5 70.1% home_-0.5 54.6%
away_+0.5 45.5% home_+0.5 67.0% away_-0.5 33.0%
home_+2.5 86.1% away_-2.5 13.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 71.2% under_2.5 28.8% over_3.5 50.2%
under_3.5 49.8% over_4.5 31.0% under_4.5 69.1%
over_5.5 16.8% under_5.5 83.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 46.3% under_1.5 53.7% over_2.5 20.7%
under_2.5 79.3%
team_away
over_1.5 62.5% under_1.5 37.5% over_2.5 35.6%
under_2.5 64.4%
most
home 28.5% draw 20.9% away 50.6%
handicap
home_-1.5 13.3% away_+1.5 86.7% home_-0.5 28.5%
away_+0.5 71.5% home_+0.5 49.4% away_-0.5 50.6%
home_+1.5 70.1% away_-1.5 29.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 63.1% under_20.5 37.0% over_22.5 48.2%
under_22.5 51.8% over_24.5 34.1% under_24.5 65.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 65.6% under_9.5 34.4% over_11.5 44.6%
under_11.5 55.4% over_13.5 26.2% under_13.5 73.9%
team_away
over_9.5 66.0% under_9.5 34.0% over_11.5 45.0%
under_11.5 55.0% over_13.5 26.5% under_13.5 73.5%
most
home 46.0% draw 7.5% away 46.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.3% away_+3.5 74.7% home_-0.5 46.0%
away_+0.5 54.0% home_+2.5 67.9% away_-2.5 32.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 18.5% no 81.5%
home
yes 6.2% no 93.8%
away
yes 13.1% no 86.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Estac Troyes predictions · Paris FC predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Ligue 1Estac TroyesParis FCTrack record