Torino vs Milan prediction & probabilities (2026-08-23)

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Torino vs Milan: model prediction

Serie A
Torino

DLWLD

Sun, 23 Aug 202619:45UK
Milan

DLLWL

Model’s top convictions

75%

Over 1.5 goals

73%

Draw or Milan

53%

Both teams to score

No bet

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
MilanWin probability
47.5%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals74.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.34
Draw or Milan73.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.37
Both teams to score53.1%Good chancePays @ 1.88

Model read

▾

The model leans Milan at 48% when Torino host Milan in the Serie A on 23 August 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. Three angles decide this preview: 1) No strong lean on goals (49% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 2) The run in: Torino arrive W1 D3 L2, Milan W2 D1 L3. 3) History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Torino, 1 draws and 2 for Milan at 4.2 goals per match. Duván Zapata drives the home shot volume, 1.2 on target per 90. Verdict: no bet. The numbers do not clear our bar.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Milan win47.5%@ 2.10
Over 9.5 corners40.2%@ 2.49
Over 10.5 corners31.4%@ 3.18
Medium risk

Torino or draw52.5%@ 1.91
Under 2.5 goals51.0%@ 1.96
Over 8.5 corners49.9%@ 2.00
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.8%@ 7.84
0-1 correct score10.3%@ 9.73
1-2 correct score9.2%@ 10.85

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Torino

26.9%

Draw

25.6%

Milan

47.5%

Model

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.574.5%

Strong chance

Over 2.549.0%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes53.1%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.549.9%

Reasonable chance

Over 9.540.2%

Toss-up

Over 10.531.4%

Toss-up

Over 11.524.0%

Low chance

Most cornersTorino 51.5% · Milan 37.8%

Totals line guide

0.5·1.574.5%2.549.0%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.574.5%

Discipline: NO_ODDS.

Form & head-to-head

TorinoDLWLD
MilanDLLWL

Last 5 meetings: Torino 2 · 1 draws · Milan 2 · 4.2 goals/game.

2026-03-21Milan 3-2 Torino
2025-12-08Torino 2-3 Milan
2025-02-22Torino 2-1 Milan
2024-08-17Milan 2-2 Torino
2024-05-18Torino 3-1 Milan

Season stats

Season 2025/26, real results only

TorinoMilan
League position#13 of 20#5 of 20
Record W-D-L12-9-1720-10-8
Current streakD1L1
Points per game1.181.84
Record, home vs away8-4-711-5-3
PPG, home vs away1.472.00
Goals scored per game1.161.39
Goals conceded per game1.660.92
Scored, home vs away1.421.47
Conceded, home vs away1.530.74
1st half goals per game0.450.53
2nd half goals per game0.710.87
Corners won per game3.84.3
Cards per game1.91.8
Fouls per game14.010.1
Red cards this season13
Shots on target per game4.04.3
xG for per game1.361.71
xG against per game1.591.21
Over 2.5 rate

63.2%44.7%

BTTS rate

50.0%47.4%

Clean sheets

31.6%39.5%

Rates this season:TorinoMilan

League averages this season: 2.43 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 46% · BTTS in 45%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Duván ZapataTorino · key player
To score15.7%

@ 6.37

1+ on target46.8%

@ 2.14

2+ shots46.6%

@ 2.15

Shots/90 2.94SoT/90 1.18Goals/90 0.32
Alieu NjieTorino · in form
To score6.3%

@ 15.87

1+ on target22.8%

@ 4.39

2+ shots7.6%

@ 13.16

Shots/90 2.01SoT/90 1.15Goals/90 0.29
Giovanni SimeoneTorino · in form
To score29.3%

@ 3.41

1+ on target58.4%

@ 1.71

2+ shots70.0%

@ 1.43

Shots/90 3.09SoT/90 1.11Goals/90 0.44

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Torino win3.66
Draw3.74
Milan win2.18
Both teams to score1.88

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.34
Over 2.5 goals2.04
Over 3.5 goals3.68
Torino most3.66
Milan most2.18

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.61
Over 8.5 corners1.96
Over 9.5 corners2.48
Over 10.5 corners3.26
Torino most1.94
Milan most2.64

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.46
Over 3.5 cards2.10
Over 4.5 cards3.45
Over 5.5 cards6.42
Torino most2.50
Milan most2.61

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.57
Over 7.5 SoT1.93
Over 8.5 SoT2.46
Over 9.5 SoT3.26
Torino most2.32
Milan most2.24

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.72
Over 24.5 shots2.17
Over 26.5 shots2.89
Over 28.5 shots4.04
Torino most1.80
Milan most2.61

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.55
Over 22.5 fouls1.97
Over 24.5 fouls2.69
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 63.7% Over 7.5 51.9% Over 8.5 40.7% Over 9.5 30.6%
Most: Torino 43.1% Most: Milan 44.7%
Torino Over 4.2 36.3% Milan Over 4.2 37.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 68.7% Over 3.5 47.7% Over 4.5 29.0%
Most: Torino 39.9% Most: Milan 38.3%
Torino Over 1.8 53.5% Milan Over 1.8 52.2%

Torino: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Duván Zapata 2.94 1.18 0.32 46.8% 46.6% 15.7%
Alieu Njie 2.01 1.15 0.29 22.8% 7.6% 6.3%
Giovanni Simeone 3.09 1.11 0.44 58.4% 70.0% 29.3%
Cyril Ngonge 2.19 1.09 0.09 45.0% 33.8% 4.8%
Che Adams 2.31 0.87 0.3 47.1% 50.4% 19.7%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 27.3% draw 26.8% away 45.9%
double_chance
1X 54.1% 12 73.2% X2 72.7%
dnb
home 37.3% away 62.7%
btts
yes 53.1% no 46.9%
clean_sheet
home 21.9% away 32.8%
win_to_nil
home 14.1% away 25.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 16.4% home_by_2 7.6% home_by_3plus 3.3%
away_by_1 22.5% away_by_2 14.0% away_by_3plus 9.4%
correct_score
0-0 7.8% 0-1 10.3% 0-2 8.3%
0-3 4.2% 0-4 1.6% 0-5 0.5%
1-0 7.4% 1-1 12.8% 1-2 9.2%
1-3 4.7% 1-4 1.8% 1-5 0.5%
2-0 4.5% 2-1 6.8% 2-2 5.1%
2-3 2.6% 2-4 1.0% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 1.7% 3-1 2.5% 3-2 1.9%
3-3 1.0% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.5% 4-1 0.7% 4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.6%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.2% under_0.5 7.8% over_1.5 74.5%
under_1.5 25.5% over_2.5 49.0% under_2.5 51.0%
over_3.5 27.2% under_3.5 72.9% over_4.5 12.8%
under_4.5 87.3% over_5.5 5.2% under_5.5 94.8%
odd_even
odd 48.5% even 51.5%
team_home
over_0.5 67.2% under_0.5 32.8% over_1.5 30.7%
under_1.5 69.3% over_2.5 10.3% under_2.5 89.7%
team_away
over_0.5 78.1% under_0.5 21.9% over_1.5 44.8%
under_1.5 55.2% over_2.5 19.6% under_2.5 80.4%
most
home 27.3% draw 26.8% away 45.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 3.3% away_+2.5 96.7% home_-1.5 10.9%
away_+1.5 89.1% home_-0.5 27.3% away_+0.5 72.7%
home_+0.5 54.1% away_-0.5 45.9% home_+1.5 76.6%
away_-1.5 23.4% home_+2.5 90.6% away_-2.5 9.4%
total_exact
exact_0 7.8% exact_1 17.7% exact_2 25.5%
exact_3 21.9% exact_4 14.4% exact_5 7.6%
exact_6 3.3% exact_7plus 1.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 20.7% draw 44.0% away 35.3%
total
over_0.5 66.2% under_0.5 33.8% over_1.5 29.6%
under_1.5 70.4% over_2.5 9.7% under_2.5 90.3%
btts
yes 16.8% no 83.2%
total_exact
exact_0 33.8% exact_1 36.7% exact_2 19.9%
exact_3 7.2% exact_4plus 2.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 24.2% draw 35.9% away 39.9%
total
over_0.5 78.2% under_0.5 21.8% over_1.5 45.0%
under_1.5 55.0% over_2.5 19.7% under_2.5 80.3%
btts
yes 27.5% no 72.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 13.5% H/D 4.7% H/A 2.5%
D/H 10.6% D/D 15.8% D/A 17.5%
A/H 1.7% A/D 5.0% A/A 28.7%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 62.3% under_7.5 37.8% over_8.5 51.1%
under_8.5 48.9% over_9.5 40.3% under_9.5 59.7%
over_10.5 30.7% under_10.5 69.3% over_11.5 22.6%
under_11.5 77.4% over_12.5 16.1% under_12.5 83.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 63.8% under_3.5 36.2% over_4.5 49.0%
under_4.5 51.0% over_5.5 35.7% under_5.5 64.3%
team_away
over_3.5 54.1% under_3.5 45.9% over_4.5 38.7%
under_4.5 61.3% over_5.5 26.1% under_5.5 73.9%
most
home 51.6% draw 10.5% away 37.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.0% away_+3.5 77.0% home_-1.5 41.1%
away_+1.5 58.9% home_-0.5 51.6% away_+0.5 48.4%
home_+0.5 62.1% away_-0.5 37.9% home_+1.5 71.7%
away_-1.5 28.3% home_+3.5 86.3% away_-3.5 13.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 58.0% under_22.5 42.0% over_24.5 46.0%
under_24.5 54.0% over_26.5 34.6% under_26.5 65.4%
over_28.5 24.7% under_28.5 75.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 65.9% under_10.5 34.1% over_12.5 49.5%
under_12.5 50.5% over_14.5 34.2% under_14.5 65.8%
team_away
over_10.5 54.2% under_10.5 45.8% over_12.5 37.1%
under_12.5 62.9% over_14.5 23.2% under_14.5 76.8%
most
home 55.6% draw 6.0% away 38.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 31.8% away_+4.5 68.2% home_-2.5 43.4%
away_+2.5 56.6% home_-0.5 55.6% away_+0.5 44.4%
home_+0.5 61.6% away_-0.5 38.4% home_+2.5 72.7%
away_-2.5 27.3% home_+4.5 81.9% away_-4.5 18.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 63.7% under_6.5 36.3% over_7.5 51.9%
under_7.5 48.1% over_8.5 40.7% under_8.5 59.3%
over_9.5 30.7% under_9.5 69.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 52.1% under_3.5 47.9% over_4.5 36.3%
under_4.5 63.7% over_5.5 23.8% under_5.5 76.2%
team_away
over_3.5 53.2% under_3.5 46.8% over_4.5 37.5%
under_4.5 62.5% over_5.5 24.8% under_5.5 75.2%
most
home 43.1% draw 12.2% away 44.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 21.9% away_+2.5 78.1% home_-0.5 43.1%
away_+0.5 56.9% home_+0.5 55.3% away_-0.5 44.7%
home_+2.5 76.8% away_-2.5 23.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 68.7% under_2.5 31.3% over_3.5 47.7%
under_3.5 52.3% over_4.5 29.0% under_4.5 71.0%
over_5.5 15.6% under_5.5 84.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 53.5% under_1.5 46.5% over_2.5 27.2%
under_2.5 72.8%
team_away
over_1.5 52.3% under_1.5 47.8% over_2.5 26.1%
under_2.5 73.9%
most
home 39.9% draw 21.8% away 38.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 21.3% away_+1.5 78.7% home_-0.5 39.9%
away_+0.5 60.1% home_+0.5 61.7% away_-0.5 38.3%
home_+1.5 79.9% away_-1.5 20.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 64.6% under_20.5 35.4% over_22.5 50.7%
under_22.5 49.3% over_24.5 37.2% under_24.5 62.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 73.0% under_9.5 27.0% over_11.5 54.4%
under_11.5 45.6% over_13.5 36.1% under_13.5 63.9%
team_away
over_9.5 58.7% under_9.5 41.3% over_11.5 38.2%
under_11.5 61.8% over_13.5 21.8% under_13.5 78.2%
most
home 57.9% draw 6.8% away 35.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 36.9% away_+3.5 63.1% home_-0.5 57.9%
away_+0.5 42.2% home_+2.5 76.8% away_-2.5 23.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 4.4% no 95.6%
home
yes 1.8% no 98.2%
away
yes 2.7% no 97.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Torino predictions · Milan predictions · Serie A

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Serie ATorinoMilanTrack record