Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Napoli64.1%
Win probability · fair 1.56
Top signals
Napoli or drawVery likely87.3%Fair 1.15
Over 1.5 goalsLikely73.0%Fair 1.37
Not both teams to scoreClose call54.3%Fair 1.84
Model read
▾
"64% on Napoli is a measurement, not a promise." Napoli go into this Serie A meeting with Frosinone on 10 October 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 64%. Totals sit close to the fence: 47% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 46%. Form guide over the last six: Napoli W3 D1 L2, Frosinone W3 D1 L2. Alisson Santos drives the home shot volume, 1.5 on target per 90. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 4 wins for Napoli, 1 draws and 0 for Frosinone at 3.6 goals per match. Frosinone are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 2.5 goals47.1%@ 2.12
Over 9.5 corners43.8%@ 2.28
Draw or Frosinone35.9%@ 2.79
Medium risk
Over 8.5 corners53.6%@ 1.87
Under 2.5 goals52.9%@ 1.89
Random finds
1-0 correct score13.2%@ 7.58
2-0 correct score12.2%@ 8.22
1-1 correct score11.3%@ 8.83
Model vs market
Napoli
64.1%
Draw
23.1%
Frosinone
12.7%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely73.0%Fair 1.37
Over 2.5Close call47.1%Fair 2.12
BTTS · YesClose call45.7%Fair 2.19
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call53.6%Fair 1.87
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely43.8%Fair 2.28
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely34.8%Fair 2.87
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot27.0%Fair 3.70
Most cornersNapoli59.2%Frosinone30.8%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely65.3%Fair 1.53
Over 24.5 shotsClose call53.5%Fair 1.87
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely41.7%Fair 2.40
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely30.9%Fair 3.24
Recent shot volume
Napoli13.8 taken15.5 faced
Frosinone17.5 taken19.0 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Napoli (5 games)
5.0 / 9.0
Frosinone (5 games)
6.8 / 9.8
Totals line guide
0.5·1.573.0%2.547.1%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.573.0%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
NapoliWLLWD
FrosinoneLWWDW
Last 5 meetings: Napoli 4 · 1 draws · Frosinone 0 · 3.6 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Alisson SantosNapoli · key player
To score20.7%4.83
1+ on target63.3%1.58
2+ shots64.0%1.56
Shots/90 3.28SoT/90 1.51Goals/90 0.35
Romano SchmidFrosinone · key player
To score12.8%7.81
1+ on target40.9%2.44
2+ shots45.9%2.18
Shots/90 1.59SoT/90 0.54Goals/90 0.14
Lorenzo LuccaNapoli · in form
To score19.9%5.03
1+ on target43.7%2.29
2+ shots44.9%2.23
Shots/90 2.81SoT/90 1.06Goals/90 0.41
Alessio ZerbinFrosinone · in form
To score1.9%52.63
1+ on target22.2%4.50
2+ shots16.1%6.21
Shots/90 1.11SoT/90 0.39Goals/90 0.03
Scott McTominayNapoli · in form
To score27.8%3.60
1+ on target63.2%1.58
2+ shots74.4%1.34
Shots/90 2.77SoT/90 1.04Goals/90 0.34
Florian GrillitschFrosinone · in form
To score0.0%·
1+ on target14.0%7.14
2+ shots4.9%20.41
Shots/90 0.58SoT/90 0.25Goals/90 0
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Napoli win1.66
Draw4.17
Frosinone win6.39
Both teams to score2.19
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.37
Over 2.5 goals2.12
Over 3.5 goals3.92
Napoli most1.66
Frosinone most6.39
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.51
Over 8.5 corners1.81
Over 9.5 corners2.25
Over 10.5 corners2.91
Napoli most1.68
Frosinone most3.24
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.48
Over 3.5 cards2.14
Over 4.5 cards3.51
Over 5.5 cards6.47
Napoli most3.20
Frosinone most2.11
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.47
Over 7.5 SoT1.78
Over 8.5 SoT2.23
Over 9.5 SoT2.91
Napoli most1.89
Frosinone most2.83
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.53
Over 24.5 shots1.87
Over 26.5 shots2.40
Over 28.5 shots3.24
Napoli most1.63
Frosinone most3.04
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.41
Over 22.5 fouls1.73
Over 24.5 fouls2.25
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
65.3%
Over 24.5
53.5%
Over 26.5
41.7%
Over 28.5
30.9%
Most: Napoli
61.4%
Most: Frosinone
32.9%
Napoli Over 13.2
50.8%
Frosinone Over 13.2
30.5%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
67.9%
Over 7.5
56.3%
Over 8.5
44.8%
Over 9.5
34.3%
Most: Napoli
53.0%
Most: Frosinone
35.3%
Napoli Over 4.2
46.1%
Frosinone Over 4.2
33.4%
Cards
Over 2.5
67.5%
Over 3.5
46.7%
Over 4.5
28.5%
Most: Napoli
31.2%
Most: Frosinone
47.5%
Napoli Over 1.8
45.6%
Frosinone Over 1.8
57.6%
Napoli: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Alisson Santos
3.28
1.51
0.35
63.3%
64.0%
20.7%
Lorenzo Lucca
2.81
1.06
0.41
43.7%
44.9%
19.9%
Scott McTominay
2.77
1.04
0.34
63.2%
74.4%
27.8%
Kevin De Bruyne
2.43
0.78
0.29
40.1%
47.4%
17.3%
Rasmus Højlund
1.74
0.71
0.33
44.7%
42.5%
24.1%
Frosinone: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Romano Schmid
1.59
0.54
0.14
40.9%
45.9%
12.8%
Alessio Zerbin
1.11
0.39
0.03
22.2%
16.1%
1.9%
Florian Grillitsch
0.58
0.25
0
14.0%
4.9%
0.0%
Patrizio Masini
0.82
0.14
0.03
8.3%
9.3%
1.8%
Lorenzo Palmisani
0
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Napoli clean sheet
45.2%
Frosinone clean sheet
17.0%
Napoli win to nil
36.9%
Frosinone win to nil
8.7%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
60.3%
draw
24.0%
away
15.7%
double_chance
1X
84.3%
12
76.0%
X2
39.7%
dnb
home
79.4%
away
20.6%
btts
yes
45.7%
no
54.3%
clean_sheet
home
45.6%
away
17.0%
win_to_nil
home
37.3%
away
8.7%
winning_margin
home_by_1
25.2%
home_by_2
18.9%
home_by_3plus
16.2%
away_by_1
10.9%
away_by_2
3.7%
away_by_3plus
1.1%
correct_score
0-0
8.3%
0-1
5.6%
0-2
2.4%
0-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
0-5
0.0%
1-0
13.2%
1-1
11.3%
1-2
4.2%
1-3
1.1%
1-4
0.2%
1-5
0.0%
2-0
12.2%
2-1
9.6%
2-2
3.8%
2-3
1.0%
2-4
0.2%
2-5
0.0%
3-0
7.2%
3-1
5.7%
3-2
2.2%
3-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
3-5
0.0%
4-0
3.2%
4-1
2.5%
4-2
1.0%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
1.1%
5-1
0.9%
5-2
0.4%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
1.0%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
0.0%
p
13.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
91.7%
under_0.5
8.3%
over_1.5
73.0%
under_1.5
27.0%
over_2.5
47.1%
under_2.5
52.9%
over_3.5
25.5%
under_3.5
74.5%
over_4.5
11.7%
under_4.5
88.3%
over_5.5
4.6%
under_5.5
95.4%
odd_even
odd
48.6%
even
51.4%
team_home
over_0.5
83.0%
under_0.5
17.0%
over_1.5
52.9%
under_1.5
47.1%
over_2.5
26.2%
under_2.5
73.8%
team_away
over_0.5
54.4%
under_0.5
45.6%
over_1.5
18.6%
under_1.5
81.4%
over_2.5
4.5%
under_2.5
95.5%
most
home
60.3%
draw
24.0%
away
15.7%
handicap
home_-2.5
16.2%
away_+2.5
83.8%
home_-1.5
35.1%
away_+1.5
64.9%
home_-0.5
60.3%
away_+0.5
39.7%
home_+0.5
84.3%
away_-0.5
15.7%
home_+1.5
95.2%
away_-1.5
4.8%
home_+2.5
98.9%
away_-2.5
1.1%
total_exact
exact_0
8.3%
exact_1
18.7%
exact_2
25.9%
exact_3
21.6%
exact_4
13.8%
exact_5
7.1%
exact_6
3.0%
exact_7plus
1.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
25.7%
draw
41.2%
away
33.1%
total
over_0.5
70.9%
under_0.5
29.1%
over_1.5
35.0%
under_1.5
65.0%
over_2.5
12.8%
under_2.5
87.2%
btts
yes
21.0%
no
79.0%
total_exact
exact_0
29.1%
exact_1
35.9%
exact_2
22.2%
exact_3
9.1%
exact_4plus
3.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
39.0%
draw
40.9%
away
20.1%
total
over_0.5
70.3%
under_0.5
29.7%
over_1.5
34.2%
under_1.5
65.8%
over_2.5
12.3%
under_2.5
87.7%
btts
yes
19.5%
no
80.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
21.6%
H/D
3.3%
H/A
0.8%
D/H
16.0%
D/D
16.8%
D/A
8.3%
A/H
3.2%
A/D
7.0%
A/A
23.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
66.2%
under_7.5
33.8%
over_8.5
55.2%
under_8.5
44.8%
over_9.5
44.4%
under_9.5
55.6%
over_10.5
34.4%
under_10.5
65.6%
over_11.5
25.7%
under_11.5
74.3%
over_12.5
18.6%
under_12.5
81.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
70.9%
under_3.5
29.1%
over_4.5
57.1%
under_4.5
42.9%
over_5.5
43.7%
under_5.5
56.3%
team_away
over_3.5
50.9%
under_3.5
49.1%
over_4.5
35.3%
under_4.5
64.7%
over_5.5
23.0%
under_5.5
77.0%
most
home
59.4%
draw
9.7%
away
30.9%
handicap
home_-3.5
29.9%
away_+3.5
70.1%
home_-1.5
49.1%
away_+1.5
50.9%
home_-0.5
59.4%
away_+0.5
40.6%
home_+0.5
69.1%
away_-0.5
30.9%
home_+1.5
77.7%
away_-1.5
22.3%
home_+3.5
89.9%
away_-3.5
10.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
65.3%
under_22.5
34.7%
over_24.5
53.5%
under_24.5
46.5%
over_26.5
41.7%
under_26.5
58.3%
over_28.5
30.9%
under_28.5
69.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
74.0%
under_10.5
26.0%
over_12.5
58.7%
under_12.5
41.3%
over_14.5
43.1%
under_14.5
56.9%
team_away
over_10.5
55.4%
under_10.5
44.6%
over_12.5
38.1%
under_12.5
61.9%
over_14.5
23.8%
under_14.5
76.2%
most
home
61.4%
draw
5.7%
away
32.9%
handicap
home_-4.5
37.6%
away_+4.5
62.4%
home_-2.5
49.5%
away_+2.5
50.5%
home_-0.5
61.4%
away_+0.5
38.6%
home_+0.5
67.1%
away_-0.5
32.9%
home_+2.5
77.2%
away_-2.5
22.8%
home_+4.5
85.2%
away_-4.5
14.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
67.9%
under_6.5
32.1%
over_7.5
56.3%
under_7.5
43.7%
over_8.5
44.9%
under_8.5
55.2%
over_9.5
34.3%
under_9.5
65.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
61.8%
under_3.5
38.2%
over_4.5
46.1%
under_4.5
53.9%
over_5.5
32.3%
under_5.5
67.7%
team_away
over_3.5
49.5%
under_3.5
50.5%
over_4.5
33.4%
under_4.5
66.6%
over_5.5
21.0%
under_5.5
79.0%
most
home
53.0%
draw
11.8%
away
35.3%
handicap
home_-2.5
30.1%
away_+2.5
69.9%
home_-0.5
53.0%
away_+0.5
47.0%
home_+0.5
64.7%
away_-0.5
35.3%
home_+2.5
83.6%
away_-2.5
16.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
67.5%
under_2.5
32.5%
over_3.5
46.7%
under_3.5
53.3%
over_4.5
28.5%
under_4.5
71.5%
over_5.5
15.5%
under_5.5
84.5%
odd_even
odd
49.9%
even
50.1%
team_home
over_1.5
45.6%
under_1.5
54.4%
over_2.5
21.0%
under_2.5
79.0%
team_away
over_1.5
57.6%
under_1.5
42.4%
over_2.5
31.7%
under_2.5
68.3%
most
home
31.2%
draw
21.3%
away
47.5%
handicap
home_-1.5
15.2%
away_+1.5
84.8%
home_-0.5
31.2%
away_+0.5
68.8%
home_+0.5
52.5%
away_-0.5
47.5%
home_+1.5
72.5%
away_-1.5
27.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
70.8%
under_20.5
29.2%
over_22.5
57.9%
under_22.5
42.1%
over_24.5
44.5%
under_24.5
55.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
65.2%
under_9.5
34.8%
over_11.5
45.5%
under_11.5
54.5%
over_13.5
28.2%
under_13.5
71.8%
team_away
over_9.5
75.2%
under_9.5
24.8%
over_11.5
57.5%
under_11.5
42.5%
over_13.5
39.4%
under_13.5
60.6%
most
home
38.3%
draw
6.6%
away
55.0%
handicap
home_-3.5
21.0%
away_+3.5
79.0%
home_-0.5
38.3%
away_+0.5
61.7%
home_+2.5
58.5%
away_-2.5
41.6%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
10.4%
no
89.6%
home
yes
6.4%
no
93.6%
away
yes
4.3%
no
95.8%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Serie A
Napoli
Frosinone