Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Fulham40.8%
Win probability · fair 2.45
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsLikely74.1%Fair 1.35
Draw or FulhamLikely68.6%Fair 1.46
Over 8.5 cornersLikely60.1%Fair 1.66
Model read
▾
Little between these two in the data. Fulham at 41% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 10 October 2026. The numbers that frame it: • No strong lean on goals (48% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • Recent form reads W2 D0 L4 for Ipswich against W1 D2 L3 for Fulham. • History adds colour: across the last 2 meetings it is 0 wins for Ipswich, 2 draws and 0 for Fulham at 3.0 goals per match. As a promoted side, Ipswich carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Chuba Akpom drives the home shot volume, 1.5 on target per 90. Team news worth noting: Fulham have McNally ruled out, Cairney ruled out, De Fougerolles ruled out, Kevin, Kenny Tete ruled out. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Fulham win40.8%@ 2.45
Over 10.5 corners40.2%@ 2.49
Over 11.5 corners31.5%@ 3.17
Medium risk
Ipswich or draw59.2%@ 1.69
Both teams to score53.6%@ 1.87
Under 2.5 goals51.5%@ 1.94
Random finds
1-1 correct score13.1%@ 7.65
0-1 correct score9.5%@ 10.49
1-2 correct score8.6%@ 11.59
Model vs market
Ipswich
31.4%
Draw
27.8%
Fulham
40.8%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely74.1%Fair 1.35
Over 2.5Close call48.5%Fair 2.06
BTTS · YesClose call53.6%Fair 1.87
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely60.1%Fair 1.66
Over 9.5 cornersClose call49.9%Fair 2.00
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely40.2%Fair 2.49
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely31.5%Fair 3.17
Most cornersIpswich49.4%Fulham40.1%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely63.1%Fair 1.58
Over 24.5 shotsClose call51.6%Fair 1.94
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely40.2%Fair 2.49
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot29.8%Fair 3.36
Recent shot volume
Ipswich12.0 taken16.0 faced
Fulham15.5 taken15.0 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Ipswich (5 games)
6.0 / 5.8
Fulham (5 games)
7.2 / 7.2
Totals line guide
0.5·1.574.1%2.548.5%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.574.1%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
IpswichWLLWL
FulhamLLLDD
Last 2 meetings: Ipswich 0 · 2 draws · Fulham 0 · 3.0 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Chuba AkpomIpswich · key player
To score20.9%4.78
1+ on target50.6%1.98
2+ shots37.1%2.70
Shots/90 2.81SoT/90 1.53Goals/90 0.51
Rodrigo MunizFulham · key player
To score16.1%6.21
1+ on target33.9%2.95
2+ shots34.3%2.92
Shots/90 3.32SoT/90 1.13Goals/90 0.48
Julio EncisoIpswich · in form
To score8.9%11.24
1+ on target58.2%1.72
2+ shots68.6%1.46
Shots/90 3.32SoT/90 1.22Goals/90 0.13
KevinFulham · in form
To score3.1%32.26
1+ on target30.6%3.27
2+ shots22.7%4.41
Shots/90 2.29SoT/90 0.93Goals/90 0.08
Zian FlemmingIpswich · in form
To score31.1%3.22
1+ on target52.8%1.89
2+ shots53.2%1.88
Shots/90 2.78SoT/90 1.17Goals/90 0.58
Joshua KingFulham · in form
To score6.6%15.15
1+ on target31.5%3.17
2+ shots24.7%4.05
Shots/90 2.09SoT/90 0.83Goals/90 0.15
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Ipswich win3.07
Draw3.64
Fulham win2.50
Both teams to score1.86
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.35
Over 2.5 goals2.06
Over 3.5 goals3.74
Ipswich most3.07
Fulham most2.50
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.34
Over 8.5 corners1.58
Over 9.5 corners1.94
Over 10.5 corners2.48
Ipswich most2.02
Fulham most2.49
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.44
Over 3.5 cards2.08
Over 4.5 cards3.45
Over 5.5 cards6.53
Ipswich most3.49
Fulham most2.00
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.43
Over 7.5 SoT1.73
Over 8.5 SoT2.19
Over 9.5 SoT2.91
Ipswich most2.03
Fulham most2.61
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.58
Over 24.5 shots1.94
Over 26.5 shots2.49
Over 28.5 shots3.36
Ipswich most1.75
Fulham most2.70
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.94
Over 22.5 fouls2.84
Over 24.5 fouls4.59
Team news
Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.
McNallyFulhamOut0% to play
CairneyFulhamOut0% to play
De FougerollesFulhamOut0% to play
Kevin, Kenny TeteFulhamOut
What the absences carry
Share of the squad’s total expected goal involvement (xG + xA) this season. It is a measure of what the team is missing, not a prediction of the result: we do not publish a re-run win probability, because estimating who replaces him is a model change that has to be validated first.
Kenny TeteFulham2.6%3.0 xG+xA in 3,171 min
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
63.1%
Over 24.5
51.6%
Over 26.5
40.2%
Over 28.5
29.8%
Most: Ipswich
57.3%
Most: Fulham
37.0%
Ipswich Over 13.2
46.7%
Fulham Over 13.2
32.4%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
69.7%
Over 7.5
57.7%
Over 8.5
45.6%
Over 9.5
34.4%
Most: Ipswich
49.3%
Most: Fulham
38.3%
Ipswich Over 4.2
44.3%
Fulham Over 4.2
36.5%
Cards
Over 2.5
69.4%
Over 3.5
48.1%
Over 4.5
29.0%
Most: Ipswich
28.7%
Most: Fulham
50.1%
Ipswich Over 1.8
45.0%
Fulham Over 1.8
60.9%
Ipswich: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Chuba Akpom
2.81
1.53
0.51
50.6%
37.1%
20.9%
Julio Enciso
3.32
1.22
0.13
58.2%
68.6%
8.9%
Zian Flemming
2.78
1.17
0.58
52.8%
53.2%
31.1%
Emersonn
2.92
1.12
0.44
51.3%
56.0%
24.6%
Kasey McAteer
1.32
0.81
0.1
35.8%
16.3%
5.3%
Fulham: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Rodrigo Muniz
3.32
1.13
0.48
33.9%
34.3%
16.1%
Kevin
2.29
0.93
0.08
30.6%
22.7%
3.1%
Joshua King
2.09
0.83
0.15
31.5%
24.7%
6.6%
Gonzalo García
2.38
0.71
0.45
25.2%
25.4%
16.8%
Alex Iwobi
1.72
0.66
0.2
45.1%
46.4%
16.6%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Ipswich clean sheet
25.0%
Fulham clean sheet
29.2%
Ipswich win to nil
17.0%
Fulham win to nil
21.3%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
32.6%
draw
27.5%
away
39.9%
double_chance
1X
60.1%
12
72.5%
X2
67.4%
dnb
home
44.9%
away
55.1%
btts
yes
53.6%
no
46.4%
clean_sheet
home
25.0%
away
29.3%
win_to_nil
home
17.1%
away
21.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1
18.5%
home_by_2
9.4%
home_by_3plus
4.7%
away_by_1
21.0%
away_by_2
12.0%
away_by_3plus
7.0%
correct_score
0-0
8.0%
0-1
9.5%
0-2
7.0%
0-3
3.3%
0-4
1.1%
0-5
0.3%
1-0
8.4%
1-1
13.1%
1-2
8.6%
1-3
4.0%
1-4
1.4%
1-5
0.4%
2-0
5.5%
2-1
7.6%
2-2
5.3%
2-3
2.5%
2-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-0
2.3%
3-1
3.1%
3-2
2.2%
3-3
1.0%
3-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
0.7%
4-1
1.0%
4-2
0.7%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.2%
5-1
0.2%
5-2
0.2%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.5%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
13.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
92.0%
under_0.5
8.0%
over_1.5
74.1%
under_1.5
25.9%
over_2.5
48.5%
under_2.5
51.5%
over_3.5
26.7%
under_3.5
73.3%
over_4.5
12.5%
under_4.5
87.5%
over_5.5
5.0%
under_5.5
95.0%
odd_even
odd
48.5%
even
51.5%
team_home
over_0.5
70.7%
under_0.5
29.3%
over_1.5
34.8%
under_1.5
65.2%
over_2.5
12.7%
under_2.5
87.3%
team_away
over_0.5
75.0%
under_0.5
25.0%
over_1.5
40.3%
under_1.5
59.7%
over_2.5
16.3%
under_2.5
83.7%
most
home
32.6%
draw
27.5%
away
39.9%
handicap
home_-2.5
4.7%
away_+2.5
95.3%
home_-1.5
14.1%
away_+1.5
85.9%
home_-0.5
32.6%
away_+0.5
67.4%
home_+0.5
60.1%
away_-0.5
39.9%
home_+1.5
81.1%
away_-1.5
19.0%
home_+2.5
93.0%
away_-2.5
7.0%
total_exact
exact_0
8.0%
exact_1
17.9%
exact_2
25.6%
exact_3
21.8%
exact_4
14.2%
exact_5
7.4%
exact_6
3.3%
exact_7plus
1.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
33.8%
draw
37.8%
away
28.4%
total
over_0.5
76.0%
under_0.5
24.0%
over_1.5
41.8%
under_1.5
58.2%
over_2.5
17.3%
under_2.5
82.7%
btts
yes
25.9%
no
74.1%
total_exact
exact_0
24.0%
exact_1
34.3%
exact_2
24.4%
exact_3
11.6%
exact_4plus
5.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
25.9%
draw
37.3%
away
36.7%
total
over_0.5
76.4%
under_0.5
23.6%
over_1.5
42.4%
under_1.5
57.6%
over_2.5
17.8%
under_2.5
82.3%
btts
yes
26.1%
no
73.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
24.2%
H/D
6.5%
H/A
3.1%
D/H
9.8%
D/D
14.1%
D/A
13.9%
A/H
1.5%
A/D
4.3%
A/A
22.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
74.4%
under_7.5
25.6%
over_8.5
63.4%
under_8.5
36.6%
over_9.5
51.7%
under_9.5
48.3%
over_10.5
40.3%
under_10.5
59.8%
over_11.5
30.0%
under_11.5
70.0%
over_12.5
21.4%
under_12.5
78.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
70.8%
under_3.5
29.2%
over_4.5
55.7%
under_4.5
44.3%
over_5.5
41.1%
under_5.5
58.9%
team_away
over_3.5
64.6%
under_3.5
35.4%
over_4.5
48.6%
under_4.5
51.4%
over_5.5
34.0%
under_5.5
66.0%
most
home
49.6%
draw
10.2%
away
40.2%
handicap
home_-3.5
21.9%
away_+3.5
78.1%
home_-1.5
39.5%
away_+1.5
60.5%
home_-0.5
49.6%
away_+0.5
50.4%
home_+0.5
59.8%
away_-0.5
40.2%
home_+1.5
69.3%
away_-1.5
30.7%
home_+3.5
84.5%
away_-3.5
15.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
63.1%
under_22.5
36.9%
over_24.5
51.6%
under_24.5
48.4%
over_26.5
40.2%
under_26.5
59.8%
over_28.5
29.8%
under_28.5
70.2%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
70.0%
under_10.5
30.0%
over_12.5
54.5%
under_12.5
45.5%
over_14.5
39.3%
under_14.5
60.7%
team_away
over_10.5
56.6%
under_10.5
43.4%
over_12.5
39.9%
under_12.5
60.1%
over_14.5
25.8%
under_14.5
74.2%
most
home
57.3%
draw
5.7%
away
37.0%
handicap
home_-4.5
34.1%
away_+4.5
65.9%
home_-2.5
45.5%
away_+2.5
54.5%
home_-0.5
57.3%
away_+0.5
42.7%
home_+0.5
63.0%
away_-0.5
37.0%
home_+2.5
73.5%
away_-2.5
26.5%
home_+4.5
82.2%
away_-4.5
17.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
69.8%
under_6.5
30.3%
over_7.5
57.7%
under_7.5
42.3%
over_8.5
45.6%
under_8.5
54.4%
over_9.5
34.4%
under_9.5
65.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
61.2%
under_3.5
38.9%
over_4.5
44.3%
under_4.5
55.7%
over_5.5
29.8%
under_5.5
70.3%
team_away
over_3.5
53.6%
under_3.5
46.4%
over_4.5
36.5%
under_4.5
63.5%
over_5.5
22.9%
under_5.5
77.1%
most
home
49.3%
draw
12.4%
away
38.3%
handicap
home_-2.5
26.1%
away_+2.5
73.9%
home_-0.5
49.3%
away_+0.5
50.7%
home_+0.5
61.7%
away_-0.5
38.3%
home_+2.5
82.2%
away_-2.5
17.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
69.4%
under_2.5
30.6%
over_3.5
48.1%
under_3.5
51.9%
over_4.5
29.0%
under_4.5
71.0%
over_5.5
15.3%
under_5.5
84.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
45.0%
under_1.5
55.0%
over_2.5
19.7%
under_2.5
80.3%
team_away
over_1.5
60.9%
under_1.5
39.1%
over_2.5
33.9%
under_2.5
66.1%
most
home
28.7%
draw
21.3%
away
50.1%
handicap
home_-1.5
13.2%
away_+1.5
86.8%
home_-0.5
28.7%
away_+0.5
71.3%
home_+0.5
50.0%
away_-0.5
50.1%
home_+1.5
70.8%
away_-1.5
29.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
51.4%
under_20.5
48.6%
over_22.5
35.3%
under_22.5
64.7%
over_24.5
21.8%
under_24.5
78.2%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
55.4%
under_9.5
44.6%
over_11.5
32.3%
under_11.5
67.7%
over_13.5
15.5%
under_13.5
84.5%
team_away
over_9.5
62.1%
under_9.5
38.0%
over_11.5
39.0%
under_11.5
61.0%
over_13.5
20.3%
under_13.5
79.7%
most
home
40.9%
draw
8.4%
away
50.7%
handicap
home_-3.5
19.4%
away_+3.5
80.6%
home_-0.5
40.9%
away_+0.5
59.1%
home_+2.5
65.8%
away_-2.5
34.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
20.4%
no
79.6%
home
yes
14.4%
no
85.6%
away
yes
7.0%
no
93.0%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Premier League
Ipswich
Fulham