Porto vs Benfica: model prediction
Primeira Liga
PortoWWWWW
BenficaWWWWW
Over 1.5 goals
Porto or draw
Draw or Benfica
Fairly pricedConservative EV -0.015 <= 0.
Win probability · fair 2.54
Top signals
Model read
The probabilities barely separate Porto and Benfica on 20 September 2026: Porto nose ahead at 39%. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Notably, the model is warmer on Porto than the market (35%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. 2) No strong lean on goals (48% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Porto, 2 draws and 2 for Benfica, averaging 3.8 goals a game. The run in: Porto arrive W6 D0 L0, Benfica W5 D1 L0. Discipline says sit it out: conservative EV -0.015 <= 0.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
Model vs market
39.3%+4.3%
27.6%-0.1%
33.1%-4.1%
conservative EV -0.015 <= 0
Goals
Corners
Shots
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
Discipline: Fairly priced. Conservative EV -0.015 <= 0.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Porto 1 · 2 draws · Benfica 2 · 3.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
PortoBenfica50.0%100.0%
33.3%50.0%
66.7%50.0%
League averages this season: 2.87 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 59% · BTTS in 53%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 57.4% | Over 24.5 | 45.3% | Over 26.5 | 33.9% | Over 28.5 | 24.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Porto | 55.7% | Most: Benfica | 38.3% | ||||
| Porto Over 13.2 | 41.1% | Benfica Over 13.2 | 29.1% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 70.5% | Over 7.5 | 57.9% | Over 8.5 | 45.0% | Over 9.5 | 33.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Porto | 48.1% | Most: Benfica | 38.8% | ||||
| Porto Over 4.2 | 43.4% | Benfica Over 4.2 | 36.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 83.3% | Over 3.5 | 66.7% | Over 4.5 | 47.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Porto | 39.5% | Most: Benfica | 41.2% | ||
| Porto Over 1.8 | 65.9% | Benfica Over 1.8 | 66.9% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
| Porto clean sheet | 29.2% |
|---|---|
| Benfica clean sheet | 25.5% |
| Porto win to nil | 21.1% |
| Benfica win to nil | 17.4% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 39.3% | draw | 27.6% | away | 33.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 66.9% | 12 | 72.4% | X2 | 60.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 54.3% | away | 45.7% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 53.3% | no | 46.7% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 29.2% | away | 25.6% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 21.1% | away | 17.5% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 20.9% | home_by_2 | 11.8% | home_by_3plus | 6.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 18.8% | away_by_2 | 9.6% | away_by_3plus | 4.8% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.1% | 0-1 | 8.6% | 0-2 | 5.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.3% | 0-4 | 0.7% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 9.6% | 1-1 | 13.2% | 1-2 | 7.7% |
| 1-3 | 3.2% | 1-4 | 1.0% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 7.0% | 2-1 | 8.6% | 2-2 | 5.3% |
| 2-3 | 2.2% | 2-4 | 0.7% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 3.2% | 3-1 | 3.9% | 3-2 | 2.4% |
| 3-3 | 1.0% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.1% | 4-1 | 1.3% | 4-2 | 0.8% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.3% | 5-1 | 0.4% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.9% | under_0.5 | 8.1% | over_1.5 | 73.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 26.2% | over_2.5 | 48.0% | under_2.5 | 52.0% |
| over_3.5 | 26.3% | under_3.5 | 73.7% | over_4.5 | 12.2% |
| under_4.5 | 87.8% | over_5.5 | 4.9% | under_5.5 | 95.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 74.4% | under_0.5 | 25.6% | over_1.5 | 39.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.4% | over_2.5 | 15.8% | under_2.5 | 84.2% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 70.8% | under_0.5 | 29.2% | over_1.5 | 34.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.2% | over_2.5 | 12.7% | under_2.5 | 87.3% |
most
| home | 39.3% | draw | 27.6% | away | 33.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 6.7% | away_+2.5 | 93.3% | home_-1.5 | 18.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 81.5% | home_-0.5 | 39.3% | away_+0.5 | 60.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.9% | away_-0.5 | 33.1% | home_+1.5 | 85.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 14.3% | home_+2.5 | 95.3% | away_-2.5 | 4.8% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.1% | exact_1 | 18.1% | exact_2 | 25.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.7% | exact_4 | 14.1% | exact_5 | 7.3% |
| exact_6 | 3.2% | exact_7plus | 1.7% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 27.9% | draw | 44.9% | away | 27.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 65.6% | under_0.5 | 34.4% | over_1.5 | 28.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 71.2% | over_2.5 | 9.3% | under_2.5 | 90.7% |
btts
| yes | 17.1% | no | 82.9% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 34.4% | exact_1 | 36.7% | exact_2 | 19.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 7.0% | exact_4plus | 2.3% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 36.1% | draw | 36.8% | away | 27.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 77.4% | under_0.5 | 22.7% | over_1.5 | 43.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 56.3% | over_2.5 | 18.7% | under_2.5 | 81.3% |
btts
| yes | 27.2% | no | 72.8% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 21.7% | H/D | 4.5% | H/A | 1.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 16.2% | D/D | 16.5% | D/A | 12.2% |
| A/H | 2.7% | A/D | 5.5% | A/A | 19.0% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 69.7% | under_7.5 | 30.3% | over_8.5 | 58.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 41.6% | over_9.5 | 47.1% | under_9.5 | 52.9% |
| over_10.5 | 36.4% | under_10.5 | 63.7% | over_11.5 | 27.0% |
| under_11.5 | 73.0% | over_12.5 | 19.3% | under_12.5 | 80.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 66.7% | under_3.5 | 33.3% | over_4.5 | 51.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 48.5% | over_5.5 | 37.4% | under_5.5 | 62.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 62.0% | under_3.5 | 38.0% | over_4.5 | 46.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 53.8% | over_5.5 | 32.4% | under_5.5 | 67.6% |
most
| home | 48.3% | draw | 10.3% | away | 41.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 20.9% | away_+3.5 | 79.1% | home_-1.5 | 38.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 61.8% | home_-0.5 | 48.3% | away_+0.5 | 51.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 58.6% | away_-0.5 | 41.4% | home_+1.5 | 68.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 31.7% | home_+3.5 | 83.8% | away_-3.5 | 16.2% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 57.4% | under_22.5 | 42.6% | over_24.5 | 45.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 54.7% | over_26.5 | 33.9% | under_26.5 | 66.1% |
| over_28.5 | 24.1% | under_28.5 | 75.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 65.6% | under_10.5 | 34.4% | over_12.5 | 49.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 51.0% | over_14.5 | 33.7% | under_14.5 | 66.3% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 53.8% | under_10.5 | 46.2% | over_12.5 | 36.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 63.4% | over_14.5 | 22.7% | under_14.5 | 77.3% |
most
| home | 55.7% | draw | 6.0% | away | 38.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 31.7% | away_+4.5 | 68.3% | home_-2.5 | 43.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 56.6% | home_-0.5 | 55.7% | away_+0.5 | 44.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.7% | away_-0.5 | 38.3% | home_+2.5 | 72.9% |
| away_-2.5 | 27.1% | home_+4.5 | 82.1% | away_-4.5 | 17.9% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 70.5% | under_6.5 | 29.5% | over_7.5 | 57.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 42.1% | over_8.5 | 45.0% | under_8.5 | 55.0% |
| over_9.5 | 33.2% | under_9.5 | 66.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 61.3% | under_3.5 | 38.7% | over_4.5 | 43.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.6% | over_5.5 | 28.0% | under_5.5 | 72.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 54.9% | under_3.5 | 45.1% | over_4.5 | 36.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 63.2% | over_5.5 | 22.3% | under_5.5 | 77.7% |
most
| home | 48.1% | draw | 13.1% | away | 38.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 24.1% | away_+2.5 | 75.9% | home_-0.5 | 48.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 51.9% | home_+0.5 | 61.2% | away_-0.5 | 38.8% |
| home_+2.5 | 82.7% | away_-2.5 | 17.3% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 83.3% | under_2.5 | 16.7% | over_3.5 | 66.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 33.3% | over_4.5 | 47.9% | under_4.5 | 52.1% |
| over_5.5 | 30.7% | under_5.5 | 69.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 65.9% | under_1.5 | 34.1% | over_2.5 | 39.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 60.8% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 66.9% | under_1.5 | 33.1% | over_2.5 | 40.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 59.6% |
most
| home | 39.5% | draw | 19.3% | away | 41.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 22.7% | away_+1.5 | 77.3% | home_-0.5 | 39.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 60.5% | home_+0.5 | 58.8% | away_-0.5 | 41.2% |
| home_+1.5 | 76.0% | away_-1.5 | 24.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 81.6% | under_20.5 | 18.4% | over_22.5 | 71.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 29.0% | over_24.5 | 58.7% | under_24.5 | 41.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 85.4% | under_9.5 | 14.6% | over_11.5 | 71.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 28.4% | over_13.5 | 54.8% | under_13.5 | 45.2% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 69.1% | under_9.5 | 30.9% | over_11.5 | 49.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 50.1% | over_13.5 | 31.9% | under_13.5 | 68.1% |
most
| home | 62.9% | draw | 6.0% | away | 31.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 43.6% | away_+3.5 | 56.4% | home_-0.5 | 62.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 37.1% | home_+2.5 | 79.4% | away_-2.5 | 20.6% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 18.7% | no | 81.3% |
|---|
home
| yes | 10.4% | no | 89.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 9.3% | no | 90.8% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).
More: Porto predictions · Benfica predictions · Primeira Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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