Colchester vs Cheltenham: model prediction
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
League TwoOver 1.5 goals
Colchester or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Full time3 of 4 calls right
Our most likely call was Colchester at 50.6%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 54.2% and it missed (2 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 78.2% and it landed (2 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 68.2% and it landed (2 goals). We called Yes at 56.1% and it landed.
Win probability · fair 1.98
Top signals
Model read
The numbers leave little room for romance here: Colchester at 51% against Cheltenham, League Two, 19 September 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) The market broadly agrees, pricing Colchester at 50%. 2) Totals sit close to the fence: 54% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 56%. 3) Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 3 wins for Colchester, 0 draws and 2 for Cheltenham, averaging 2.4 goals a game. Recent form reads W2 D2 L2 for Colchester against W3 D2 L1 for Cheltenham. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.009 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
Model vs market
50.6%+0.1%
25.0%-0.8%
24.5%+0.9%
value_gap +0.009 <= 0.03
Goals
Corners
Shots
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Colchester 3 · 0 draws · Cheltenham 2 · 2.4 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
42.9%100.0%
71.4%100.0%
14.3%0.0%
League averages this season: 2.65 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 49% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 57.5% | Over 24.5 | 44.7% | Over 26.5 | 32.7% | Over 28.5 | 22.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Colchester | 63.1% | Most: Cheltenham | 30.9% | ||||
| Colchester Over 13.2 | 45.4% | Cheltenham Over 13.2 | 23.4% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 64.4% | Over 7.5 | 51.5% | Over 8.5 | 39.2% | Over 9.5 | 28.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Colchester | 57.1% | Most: Cheltenham | 30.4% | ||||
| Colchester Over 4.2 | 45.3% | Cheltenham Over 4.2 | 26.4% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 70.3% | Over 3.5 | 49.1% | Over 4.5 | 29.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Colchester | 30.9% | Most: Cheltenham | 47.7% | ||
| Colchester Over 1.8 | 47.7% | Cheltenham Over 1.8 | 60.1% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
| Colchester clean sheet | 32.1% |
|---|---|
| Cheltenham clean sheet | 17.9% |
| Colchester win to nil | 25.7% |
| Cheltenham win to nil | 11.6% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 50.6% | draw | 25.0% | away | 24.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 75.5% | 12 | 75.0% | X2 | 49.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 67.4% | away | 32.6% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 56.1% | no | 43.9% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 32.3% | away | 18.0% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 26.0% | away | 11.6% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.8% | home_by_2 | 15.6% | home_by_3plus | 12.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 14.8% | away_by_2 | 6.8% | away_by_3plus | 2.9% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 6.4% | 0-1 | 6.0% | 0-2 | 3.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.4% | 0-4 | 0.4% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 9.4% | 1-1 | 11.8% | 1-2 | 6.4% |
| 1-3 | 2.4% | 1-4 | 0.7% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 8.6% | 2-1 | 9.7% | 2-2 | 5.5% |
| 2-3 | 2.1% | 2-4 | 0.6% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 4.9% | 3-1 | 5.5% | 3-2 | 3.1% |
| 3-3 | 1.2% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 2.1% | 4-1 | 2.4% | 4-2 | 1.3% |
| 4-3 | 0.5% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.7% | 5-1 | 0.8% | 5-2 | 0.5% |
| 5-3 | 0.2% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.0% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 11.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 93.6% | under_0.5 | 6.4% | over_1.5 | 78.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 21.8% | over_2.5 | 54.2% | under_2.5 | 45.8% |
| over_3.5 | 31.9% | under_3.5 | 68.2% | over_4.5 | 16.0% |
| under_4.5 | 84.0% | over_5.5 | 6.9% | under_5.5 | 93.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.7% | even | 51.3% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 82.0% | under_0.5 | 18.0% | over_1.5 | 51.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 48.8% | over_2.5 | 24.7% | under_2.5 | 75.3% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 67.7% | under_0.5 | 32.3% | over_1.5 | 31.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 68.8% | over_2.5 | 10.6% | under_2.5 | 89.4% |
most
| home | 50.6% | draw | 25.0% | away | 24.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 12.2% | away_+2.5 | 87.8% | home_-1.5 | 27.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 72.2% | home_-0.5 | 50.6% | away_+0.5 | 49.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 75.5% | away_-0.5 | 24.5% | home_+1.5 | 90.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 9.7% | home_+2.5 | 97.1% | away_-2.5 | 2.9% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 6.4% | exact_1 | 15.4% | exact_2 | 24.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.3% | exact_4 | 15.9% | exact_5 | 9.0% |
| exact_6 | 4.3% | exact_7plus | 2.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 42.6% | draw | 40.1% | away | 17.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 70.5% | under_0.5 | 29.5% | over_1.5 | 34.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.5% | over_2.5 | 12.5% | under_2.5 | 87.5% |
btts
| yes | 18.6% | no | 81.4% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 29.5% | exact_1 | 36.0% | exact_2 | 22.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 9.0% | exact_4plus | 3.6% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 37.6% | draw | 34.5% | away | 27.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 80.8% | under_0.5 | 19.2% | over_1.5 | 49.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 50.9% | over_2.5 | 23.0% | under_2.5 | 77.0% |
btts
| yes | 31.3% | no | 68.8% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 33.8% | H/D | 6.3% | H/A | 2.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 15.1% | D/D | 13.8% | D/A | 11.2% |
| A/H | 2.0% | A/D | 3.7% | A/A | 11.6% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 71.7% | under_7.5 | 28.3% | over_8.5 | 60.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 39.9% | over_9.5 | 48.2% | under_9.5 | 51.8% |
| over_10.5 | 36.9% | under_10.5 | 63.1% | over_11.5 | 27.0% |
| under_11.5 | 73.0% | over_12.5 | 18.9% | under_12.5 | 81.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 74.7% | under_3.5 | 25.3% | over_4.5 | 59.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 40.1% | over_5.5 | 44.9% | under_5.5 | 55.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 56.9% | under_3.5 | 43.1% | over_4.5 | 39.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.3% | over_5.5 | 25.5% | under_5.5 | 74.5% |
most
| home | 58.1% | draw | 10.5% | away | 31.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.8% | away_+3.5 | 73.2% | home_-1.5 | 47.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 52.9% | home_-0.5 | 58.1% | away_+0.5 | 41.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.6% | away_-0.5 | 31.4% | home_+1.5 | 77.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 22.3% | home_+3.5 | 90.6% | away_-3.5 | 9.5% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 57.5% | under_22.5 | 42.5% | over_24.5 | 44.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 55.4% | over_26.5 | 32.7% | under_26.5 | 67.3% |
| over_28.5 | 22.5% | under_28.5 | 77.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 70.7% | under_10.5 | 29.3% | over_12.5 | 53.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 46.1% | over_14.5 | 37.4% | under_14.5 | 62.6% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 48.6% | under_10.5 | 51.4% | over_12.5 | 30.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 69.3% | over_14.5 | 17.3% | under_14.5 | 82.7% |
most
| home | 63.1% | draw | 6.0% | away | 30.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 37.5% | away_+4.5 | 62.5% | home_-2.5 | 50.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 49.7% | home_-0.5 | 63.1% | away_+0.5 | 36.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 69.1% | away_-0.5 | 30.9% | home_+2.5 | 79.6% |
| away_-2.5 | 20.4% | home_+4.5 | 87.6% | away_-4.5 | 12.4% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 64.4% | under_6.5 | 35.6% | over_7.5 | 51.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 48.5% | over_8.5 | 39.2% | under_8.5 | 60.8% |
| over_9.5 | 28.3% | under_9.5 | 71.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 62.3% | under_3.5 | 37.7% | over_4.5 | 45.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 54.7% | over_5.5 | 30.5% | under_5.5 | 69.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 43.1% | under_3.5 | 56.9% | over_4.5 | 26.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 73.6% | over_5.5 | 14.8% | under_5.5 | 85.2% |
most
| home | 57.1% | draw | 12.5% | away | 30.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 31.7% | away_+2.5 | 68.3% | home_-0.5 | 57.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 42.9% | home_+0.5 | 69.6% | away_-0.5 | 30.4% |
| home_+2.5 | 88.0% | away_-2.5 | 12.0% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 70.3% | under_2.5 | 29.7% | over_3.5 | 49.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 50.9% | over_4.5 | 29.9% | under_4.5 | 70.1% |
| over_5.5 | 16.0% | under_5.5 | 84.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 47.7% | under_1.5 | 52.3% | over_2.5 | 21.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 78.2% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 60.1% | under_1.5 | 39.9% | over_2.5 | 33.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 67.0% |
most
| home | 30.9% | draw | 21.4% | away | 47.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 14.8% | away_+1.5 | 85.2% | home_-0.5 | 30.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 69.1% | home_+0.5 | 52.3% | away_-0.5 | 47.7% |
| home_+1.5 | 72.6% | away_-1.5 | 27.4% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 70.4% | under_20.5 | 29.6% | over_22.5 | 55.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 44.5% | over_24.5 | 40.4% | under_24.5 | 59.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 58.2% | under_9.5 | 41.8% | over_11.5 | 35.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 64.4% | over_13.5 | 18.1% | under_13.5 | 81.9% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 81.5% | under_9.5 | 18.6% | over_11.5 | 63.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 36.7% | over_13.5 | 42.9% | under_13.5 | 57.1% |
most
| home | 27.5% | draw | 6.9% | away | 65.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 11.9% | away_+3.5 | 88.1% | home_-0.5 | 27.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 72.5% | home_+2.5 | 49.5% | away_-2.5 | 50.5% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 10.7% | no | 89.3% |
|---|
home
| yes | 1.4% | no | 98.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 9.4% | no | 90.6% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).
More: Colchester predictions · Cheltenham predictions · League Two
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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