Betis vs Getafe prediction & probabilities (2026-09-17)

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Betis vs Getafe: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 15 Sep 2026

La Liga
Betis

WWLWW

Thu, 17 Sep 202618:00UK29°C · Cloudy
Getafe

LWLDD

Model’s top convictions

83%

Betis or draw

67%

Over 1.5 goals

60%

Under 2.5 goals

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.23).

Model pick

Betis55.0%

Win probability · fair 1.82

Top signals

Betis or drawVery likely82.8%Fair 1.21
Over 1.5 goalsLikely66.8%Fair 1.50
Under 2.5 goalsLikely60.3%Fair 1.66

Model read

The numbers leave little room for romance here: Betis at 55% against Getafe, La Liga, 17 September 2026. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Betis higher (61%) than our model does. The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 40% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 43%. The forecast adds a wrinkle: 29 degrees of heat. Antony drives the home shot volume, 1.3 on target per 90. The run in: Betis arrive W5 D0 L1, Getafe W2 D2 L2. The recent series reads 3 wins for Betis, 1 draws and 1 for Getafe over 5 games, 2.8 goals on average. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.23).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners47.3%@ 2.11
Draw or Getafe45.0%@ 2.22
Over 2.5 goals39.7%@ 2.52
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners58.3%@ 1.72
Not both teams to score56.9%@ 1.76
Random finds

1-0 correct score14.5%@ 6.87
1-1 correct score12.7%@ 7.86
2-0 correct score11.1%@ 8.99

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Betis

55.0%-6.2%

Draw

27.7%+4.6%

Getafe

17.2%+1.6%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.23)

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely66.8%Fair 1.50
Over 2.5Unlikely39.7%Fair 2.52
BTTS · YesUnlikely43.1%Fair 2.32

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersClose call58.3%Fair 1.72
Over 9.5 cornersClose call47.3%Fair 2.11
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely37.0%Fair 2.70
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot28.0%Fair 3.57
Most cornersBetis53.9%Getafe35.1%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely61.4%Fair 1.63
Over 24.5 shotsClose call48.7%Fair 2.05
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely36.5%Fair 2.74
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot25.7%Fair 3.89

Recent shot volume

Betis17.8 taken15.5 faced
Getafe10.0 taken11.8 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Betis (5 games)

8.6 / 9.2

Getafe (5 games)

5.2 / 5.6

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.566.8%2.539.7%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.566.8%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.23).

Form & head-to-head

BetisWWLWW
GetafeLWLDD

Last 5 meetings: Betis 3 · 1 draws · Getafe 1 · 2.8 goals/game.

2026-03-08Getafe 2-0 Betis
2025-12-21Betis 4-0 Getafe
2025-02-23Getafe 1-2 Betis
2024-09-18Betis 2-1 Getafe
2024-02-04Betis 1-1 Getafe

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

BetisGetafe
League position#3 of 20#14 of 20
Record W-D-L4-0-11-2-2
Current streakW2D2
Points per game2.401.00
Record, home vs away2-0-00-0-2
Goals scored per game1.400.60
Goals conceded per game1.201.20
1st half goals per game0.800.20
2nd half goals per game0.600.40
Corners won per game4.84.0
Cards per game1.63.4
Fouls per game9.212.6
Red cards this season02
Shots per game17.810.8
Shots faced per game15.612.0
Shots on target per game6.62.0
1st half shots per game8.65.2
2nd half shots per game9.25.6
xG for per game1.910.96
xG against per game2.101.50
Over 2.5 rate

40.0%20.0%

BTTS rate

40.0%40.0%

Clean sheets

60.0%20.0%

Rates this season:BetisGetafe

League averages this season: 2.98 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 55% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

AntonyBetis · key player
To score19.3%5.18
1+ on target64.4%1.55
2+ shots74.4%1.34
Shots/90 3.35SoT/90 1.3Goals/90 0.27
Enes ÜnalGetafe · key player
To score9.0%11.11
1+ on target18.9%5.29
2+ shots23.0%4.35
Shots/90 4.15SoT/90 0.96Goals/90 0.43
Pablo GarcíaBetis · in form
To score8.4%11.90
1+ on target29.3%3.41
2+ shots24.8%4.03
Shots/90 3.47SoT/90 1.26Goals/90 0.32
Martín SatrianoGetafe · in form
To score20.6%4.85
1+ on target44.4%2.25
2+ shots50.4%1.98
Shots/90 2.13SoT/90 0.74Goals/90 0.29
Abdessamad EzzalzouliBetis · in form
To score17.1%5.85
1+ on target55.7%1.80
2+ shots63.8%1.57
Shots/90 2.77SoT/90 1.04Goals/90 0.24
Borja MayoralGetafe · in form
To score19.3%5.18
1+ on target31.5%3.17
2+ shots20.3%4.93
Shots/90 1.47SoT/90 0.67Goals/90 0.38

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Betis win1.571.82
Draw4.003.61
Getafe win5.755.80
Over 2.5 goals2.202.52
Under 2.5 goals1.671.66

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Betis win1.91
Draw3.60
Getafe win5.05
Both teams to score2.32

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.12
Over 1.5 goals1.50
Over 2.5 goals2.52
Over 3.5 goals5.11
Betis most1.91
Getafe most5.05

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.38
Over 8.5 corners1.65
Over 9.5 corners2.07
Over 10.5 corners2.73
Betis most1.85
Getafe most2.84

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.17
Over 3.5 cards1.42
Over 4.5 cards1.88
Over 5.5 cards2.76
Betis most3.45
Getafe most1.86

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.38
Over 7.5 SoT1.67
Over 8.5 SoT2.13
Over 9.5 SoT2.88
Betis most1.62
Getafe most3.82

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.63
Over 24.5 shots2.05
Over 26.5 shots2.74
Over 28.5 shots3.89
Betis most1.55
Getafe most3.38

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.23
Over 22.5 fouls1.43
Over 24.5 fouls1.75
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 61.4% Over 24.5 48.7% Over 26.5 36.5% Over 28.5 25.7%
Most: Betis 64.6% Most: Getafe 29.6%
Betis Over 13.2 49.3% Getafe Over 13.2 24.8%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 72.3% Over 7.5 59.8% Over 8.5 46.9% Over 9.5 34.8%
Most: Betis 61.9% Most: Getafe 26.2%
Betis Over 4.2 54.1% Getafe Over 4.2 28.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 85.4% Over 3.5 70.6% Over 4.5 53.1%
Most: Betis 29.0% Most: Getafe 53.7%
Betis Over 1.8 60.2% Getafe Over 1.8 75.7%

Betis: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Antony 3.35 1.3 0.27 64.4% 74.4% 19.3%
Pablo García 3.47 1.26 0.32 29.3% 24.8% 8.4%
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli 2.77 1.04 0.24 55.7% 63.8% 17.1%
Giovani Lo Celso 2.05 0.96 0.32 45.8% 37.6% 18.5%
Juan Camilo Hernández 3.02 0.89 0.37 54.5% 74.6% 27.9%

Getafe: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Enes Ünal 4.15 0.96 0.43 18.9% 23.0% 9.0%
Martín Satriano 2.13 0.74 0.29 44.4% 50.4% 20.6%
Borja Mayoral 1.47 0.67 0.38 31.5% 20.3% 19.3%
Ramón Terrats 1.64 0.48 0.19 23.1% 22.6% 9.9%
Mario Martín 1.23 0.42 0.04 25.2% 20.9% 2.7%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Betis clean sheet 44.7%
Getafe clean sheet 23.0%
Betis win to nil 33.7%
Getafe win to nil 12.0%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 52.4% draw 27.8% away 19.8%
double_chance
1X 80.2% 12 72.2% X2 47.6%
dnb
home 72.5% away 27.4%
btts
yes 43.1% no 56.9%
clean_sheet
home 44.9% away 23.0%
win_to_nil
home 33.9% away 12.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 25.4% home_by_2 16.2% home_by_3plus 10.8%
away_by_1 13.6% away_by_2 4.8% away_by_3plus 1.4%
correct_score
0-0 11.0% 0-1 7.6% 0-2 3.3%
0-3 0.9% 0-4 0.2% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 14.5% 1-1 12.7% 1-2 4.9%
1-3 1.3% 1-4 0.3% 1-5 0.0%
2-0 11.1% 2-1 8.9% 2-2 3.6%
2-3 1.0% 2-4 0.2% 2-5 0.0%
3-0 5.5% 3-1 4.4% 3-2 1.8%
3-3 0.5% 3-4 0.1% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 2.0% 4-1 1.6% 4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.0% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.6% 5-1 0.5% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 0.0% p 14.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 89.0% under_0.5 11.0% over_1.5 66.8%
under_1.5 33.2% over_2.5 39.7% under_2.5 60.3%
over_3.5 19.6% under_3.5 80.4% over_4.5 8.1%
under_4.5 91.9% over_5.5 2.9% under_5.5 97.1%
odd_even
odd 48.2% even 51.8%
team_home
over_0.5 77.0% under_0.5 23.0% over_1.5 43.2%
under_1.5 56.8% over_2.5 18.4% under_2.5 81.6%
team_away
over_0.5 55.1% under_0.5 44.9% over_1.5 19.2%
under_1.5 80.8% over_2.5 4.8% under_2.5 95.2%
most
home 52.4% draw 27.8% away 19.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 10.8% away_+2.5 89.2% home_-1.5 27.0%
away_+1.5 73.0% home_-0.5 52.4% away_+0.5 47.6%
home_+0.5 80.2% away_-0.5 19.8% home_+1.5 93.8%
away_-1.5 6.3% home_+2.5 98.6% away_-2.5 1.4%
total_exact
exact_0 11.0% exact_1 22.2% exact_2 27.1%
exact_3 20.1% exact_4 11.5% exact_5 5.2%
exact_6 2.0% exact_7plus 0.9%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.3% draw 47.6% away 20.1%
total
over_0.5 61.3% under_0.5 38.7% over_1.5 24.5%
under_1.5 75.5% over_2.5 7.1% under_2.5 92.9%
btts
yes 13.8% no 86.2%
total_exact
exact_0 38.7% exact_1 36.7% exact_2 17.4%
exact_3 5.5% exact_4plus 1.6%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 43.2% draw 41.2% away 15.6%
total
over_0.5 68.4% under_0.5 31.6% over_1.5 32.0%
under_1.5 68.0% over_2.5 11.0% under_2.5 89.0%
btts
yes 16.5% no 83.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 28.4% H/D 3.3% H/A 0.6%
D/H 20.6% D/D 19.6% D/A 7.4%
A/H 2.5% A/D 5.1% A/A 12.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 72.4% under_7.5 27.6% over_8.5 60.6%
under_8.5 39.4% over_9.5 48.3% under_9.5 51.7%
over_10.5 36.6% under_10.5 63.4% over_11.5 26.4%
under_11.5 73.7% over_12.5 18.1% under_12.5 81.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.9% under_3.5 27.1% over_4.5 57.4%
under_4.5 42.6% over_5.5 42.0% under_5.5 58.0%
team_away
over_3.5 60.4% under_3.5 39.6% over_4.5 43.1%
under_4.5 56.9% over_5.5 28.2% under_5.5 71.8%
most
home 54.0% draw 10.8% away 35.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.3% away_+3.5 76.7% home_-1.5 42.9%
away_+1.5 57.1% home_-0.5 54.0% away_+0.5 46.0%
home_+0.5 64.8% away_-0.5 35.2% home_+1.5 74.5%
away_-1.5 25.5% home_+3.5 88.7% away_-3.5 11.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 61.4% under_22.5 38.6% over_24.5 48.7%
under_24.5 51.3% over_26.5 36.5% under_26.5 63.5%
over_28.5 25.7% under_28.5 74.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 73.9% under_10.5 26.1% over_12.5 57.7%
under_12.5 42.3% over_14.5 41.2% under_14.5 58.8%
team_away
over_10.5 50.3% under_10.5 49.7% over_12.5 32.3%
under_12.5 67.7% over_14.5 18.5% under_14.5 81.5%
most
home 64.6% draw 5.8% away 29.6%
handicap
home_-4.5 39.3% away_+4.5 60.7% home_-2.5 52.0%
away_+2.5 48.0% home_-0.5 64.6% away_+0.5 35.4%
home_+0.5 70.4% away_-0.5 29.6% home_+2.5 80.5%
away_-2.5 19.5% home_+4.5 88.1% away_-4.5 11.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 72.3% under_6.5 27.7% over_7.5 59.8%
under_7.5 40.2% over_8.5 46.9% under_8.5 53.1%
over_9.5 34.8% under_9.5 65.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 70.9% under_3.5 29.1% over_4.5 54.1%
under_4.5 45.9% over_5.5 37.8% under_5.5 62.2%
team_away
over_3.5 45.9% under_3.5 54.1% over_4.5 28.1%
under_4.5 71.9% over_5.5 15.4% under_5.5 84.6%
most
home 61.9% draw 11.9% away 26.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 36.0% away_+2.5 64.0% home_-0.5 61.9%
away_+0.5 38.1% home_+0.5 73.8% away_-0.5 26.2%
home_+2.5 90.4% away_-2.5 9.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 85.4% under_2.5 14.6% over_3.5 70.6%
under_3.5 29.4% over_4.5 53.1% under_4.5 46.9%
over_5.5 36.2% under_5.5 63.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 60.2% under_1.5 39.8% over_2.5 34.0%
under_2.5 66.0%
team_away
over_1.5 75.7% under_1.5 24.3% over_2.5 52.4%
under_2.5 47.6%
most
home 29.0% draw 17.3% away 53.7%
handicap
home_-1.5 15.6% away_+1.5 84.4% home_-0.5 29.0%
away_+0.5 71.0% home_+0.5 46.3% away_-0.5 53.7%
home_+1.5 64.1% away_-1.5 35.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 81.3% under_20.5 18.7% over_22.5 70.1%
under_22.5 29.9% over_24.5 57.1% under_24.5 42.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 72.8% under_9.5 27.2% over_11.5 53.4%
under_11.5 46.6% over_13.5 34.5% under_13.5 65.5%
team_away
over_9.5 83.3% under_9.5 16.8% over_11.5 67.6%
under_11.5 32.4% over_13.5 49.4% under_13.5 50.6%
most
home 36.3% draw 6.6% away 57.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 19.4% away_+3.5 80.6% home_-0.5 36.3%
away_+0.5 63.7% home_+2.5 56.4% away_-2.5 43.6%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 21.0% no 79.0%
home
yes 7.1% no 92.9%
away
yes 15.0% no 85.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Betis predictions · Getafe predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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