Shots
| Over 22.5 |
65.0% |
Over 24.5 |
52.6% |
Over 26.5 |
40.4% |
Over 28.5 |
29.2% |
| Most: Sheffield United |
60.8% |
Most: Wolves |
33.2% |
| Sheffield United Over 13.2 |
49.4% |
Wolves Over 13.2 |
29.9% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 |
70.4% |
Over 7.5 |
58.0% |
Over 8.5 |
45.3% |
Over 9.5 |
33.7% |
| Most: Sheffield United |
50.8% |
Most: Wolves |
36.5% |
| Sheffield United Over 4.2 |
45.4% |
Wolves Over 4.2 |
35.1% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 |
72.6% |
Over 3.5 |
52.0% |
Over 4.5 |
32.6% |
| Most: Sheffield United |
33.2% |
Most: Wolves |
45.7% |
| Sheffield United Over 1.8 |
51.5% |
Wolves Over 1.8 |
60.6% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Sheffield United clean sheet |
37.9% |
| Wolves clean sheet |
15.6% |
| Sheffield United win to nil |
31.4% |
| Wolves win to nil |
9.1% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home |
57.9% |
draw |
23.5% |
away |
18.6% |
|
double_chance
| 1X |
81.4% |
12 |
76.5% |
X2 |
42.2% |
|
dnb
btts
clean_sheet
win_to_nil
winning_margin
| home_by_1 |
23.9% |
home_by_2 |
18.0% |
home_by_3plus |
16.0% |
| away_by_1 |
12.1% |
away_by_2 |
4.8% |
away_by_3plus |
1.7% |
|
correct_score
| 0-0 |
6.5% |
0-1 |
5.2% |
0-2 |
2.8% |
| 0-3 |
0.9% |
0-4 |
0.2% |
0-5 |
0.0% |
| 1-0 |
10.6% |
1-1 |
11.2% |
1-2 |
5.1% |
| 1-3 |
1.6% |
1-4 |
0.4% |
1-5 |
0.1% |
| 2-0 |
10.3% |
2-1 |
9.9% |
2-2 |
4.7% |
| 2-3 |
1.5% |
2-4 |
0.4% |
2-5 |
0.1% |
| 3-0 |
6.4% |
3-1 |
6.1% |
3-2 |
2.9% |
| 3-3 |
0.9% |
3-4 |
0.2% |
3-5 |
0.0% |
| 4-0 |
3.0% |
4-1 |
2.8% |
4-2 |
1.4% |
| 4-3 |
0.4% |
4-4 |
0.1% |
4-5 |
0.0% |
| 5-0 |
1.1% |
5-1 |
1.1% |
5-2 |
0.5% |
| 5-3 |
0.2% |
5-4 |
0.0% |
5-5 |
0.0% |
| other |
1.2% |
likeliest_score
| h |
100.0% |
a |
100.0% |
p |
11.2% |
|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 |
93.5% |
under_0.5 |
6.5% |
over_1.5 |
77.6% |
| under_1.5 |
22.4% |
over_2.5 |
53.4% |
under_2.5 |
46.6% |
| over_3.5 |
31.1% |
under_3.5 |
68.9% |
over_4.5 |
15.5% |
| under_4.5 |
84.6% |
over_5.5 |
6.6% |
under_5.5 |
93.4% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_0.5 |
84.3% |
under_0.5 |
15.7% |
over_1.5 |
55.3% |
| under_1.5 |
44.7% |
over_2.5 |
28.4% |
under_2.5 |
71.6% |
|
team_away
| over_0.5 |
61.7% |
under_0.5 |
38.3% |
over_1.5 |
24.9% |
| under_1.5 |
75.1% |
over_2.5 |
7.3% |
under_2.5 |
92.7% |
|
most
| home |
57.9% |
draw |
23.5% |
away |
18.6% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
16.0% |
away_+2.5 |
84.0% |
home_-1.5 |
34.0% |
| away_+1.5 |
66.0% |
home_-0.5 |
57.9% |
away_+0.5 |
42.2% |
| home_+0.5 |
81.4% |
away_-0.5 |
18.6% |
home_+1.5 |
93.5% |
| away_-1.5 |
6.5% |
home_+2.5 |
98.3% |
away_-2.5 |
1.7% |
|
total_exact
| exact_0 |
6.5% |
exact_1 |
15.8% |
exact_2 |
24.3% |
| exact_3 |
22.3% |
exact_4 |
15.7% |
exact_5 |
8.8% |
| exact_6 |
4.1% |
exact_7plus |
2.5% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
40.2% |
draw |
30.7% |
away |
29.1% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
86.4% |
under_0.5 |
13.6% |
over_1.5 |
59.2% |
| under_1.5 |
40.8% |
over_2.5 |
32.2% |
under_2.5 |
67.9% |
|
btts
total_exact
| exact_0 |
13.6% |
exact_1 |
27.2% |
exact_2 |
27.1% |
| exact_3 |
18.0% |
exact_4plus |
14.2% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
33.9% |
draw |
34.7% |
away |
31.5% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
80.8% |
under_0.5 |
19.2% |
over_1.5 |
49.1% |
| under_1.5 |
50.9% |
over_2.5 |
22.9% |
under_2.5 |
77.1% |
|
btts
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H |
31.5% |
H/D |
6.0% |
H/A |
2.7% |
| D/H |
10.4% |
D/D |
10.6% |
D/A |
9.7% |
| A/H |
2.4% |
A/D |
5.0% |
A/A |
21.7% |
|
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 |
81.6% |
under_7.5 |
18.5% |
over_8.5 |
71.9% |
| under_8.5 |
28.1% |
over_9.5 |
60.8% |
under_9.5 |
39.2% |
| over_10.5 |
49.3% |
under_10.5 |
50.7% |
over_11.5 |
38.1% |
| under_11.5 |
61.9% |
over_12.5 |
28.2% |
under_12.5 |
71.8% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
81.4% |
under_3.5 |
18.6% |
over_4.5 |
68.4% |
| under_4.5 |
31.6% |
over_5.5 |
53.9% |
under_5.5 |
46.1% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
64.8% |
under_3.5 |
35.2% |
over_4.5 |
47.8% |
| under_4.5 |
52.3% |
over_5.5 |
32.4% |
under_5.5 |
67.6% |
|
most
| home |
59.2% |
draw |
9.9% |
away |
31.0% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
29.0% |
away_+3.5 |
71.0% |
home_-1.5 |
48.7% |
| away_+1.5 |
51.3% |
home_-0.5 |
59.2% |
away_+0.5 |
40.8% |
| home_+0.5 |
69.0% |
away_-0.5 |
31.0% |
home_+1.5 |
77.7% |
| away_-1.5 |
22.3% |
home_+3.5 |
90.1% |
away_-3.5 |
9.9% |
|
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 |
65.0% |
under_22.5 |
35.0% |
over_24.5 |
52.7% |
| under_24.5 |
47.3% |
over_26.5 |
40.4% |
under_26.5 |
59.6% |
| over_28.5 |
29.2% |
under_28.5 |
70.8% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_10.5 |
73.9% |
under_10.5 |
26.1% |
over_12.5 |
57.8% |
| under_12.5 |
42.2% |
over_14.5 |
41.3% |
under_14.5 |
58.7% |
|
team_away
| over_10.5 |
56.0% |
under_10.5 |
44.0% |
over_12.5 |
37.9% |
| under_12.5 |
62.1% |
over_14.5 |
23.0% |
under_14.5 |
77.0% |
|
most
| home |
60.8% |
draw |
5.9% |
away |
33.3% |
|
handicap
| home_-4.5 |
35.9% |
away_+4.5 |
64.1% |
home_-2.5 |
48.3% |
| away_+2.5 |
51.7% |
home_-0.5 |
60.8% |
away_+0.5 |
39.2% |
| home_+0.5 |
66.8% |
away_-0.5 |
33.3% |
home_+2.5 |
77.4% |
| away_-2.5 |
22.7% |
home_+4.5 |
85.7% |
away_-4.5 |
14.3% |
|
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 |
70.4% |
under_6.5 |
29.6% |
over_7.5 |
58.0% |
| under_7.5 |
42.0% |
over_8.5 |
45.3% |
under_8.5 |
54.7% |
| over_9.5 |
33.7% |
under_9.5 |
66.3% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
62.8% |
under_3.5 |
37.2% |
over_4.5 |
45.4% |
| under_4.5 |
54.6% |
over_5.5 |
30.1% |
under_5.5 |
69.9% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
52.9% |
under_3.5 |
47.1% |
over_4.5 |
35.1% |
| under_4.5 |
64.9% |
over_5.5 |
21.2% |
under_5.5 |
78.8% |
|
most
| home |
50.7% |
draw |
12.8% |
away |
36.5% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
26.6% |
away_+2.5 |
73.5% |
home_-0.5 |
50.7% |
| away_+0.5 |
49.3% |
home_+0.5 |
63.5% |
away_-0.5 |
36.5% |
| home_+2.5 |
84.0% |
away_-2.5 |
16.0% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 |
72.6% |
under_2.5 |
27.4% |
over_3.5 |
52.0% |
| under_3.5 |
48.0% |
over_4.5 |
32.6% |
under_4.5 |
67.4% |
| over_5.5 |
18.0% |
under_5.5 |
82.0% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_1.5 |
51.5% |
under_1.5 |
48.5% |
over_2.5 |
25.0% |
| under_2.5 |
75.0% |
team_away
| over_1.5 |
60.6% |
under_1.5 |
39.4% |
over_2.5 |
33.5% |
| under_2.5 |
66.5% |
most
| home |
33.2% |
draw |
21.1% |
away |
45.7% |
|
handicap
| home_-1.5 |
16.6% |
away_+1.5 |
83.4% |
home_-0.5 |
33.2% |
| away_+0.5 |
66.8% |
home_+0.5 |
54.3% |
away_-0.5 |
45.7% |
| home_+1.5 |
73.9% |
away_-1.5 |
26.1% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 |
62.3% |
under_20.5 |
37.7% |
over_22.5 |
46.7% |
| under_22.5 |
53.3% |
over_24.5 |
32.0% |
under_24.5 |
68.0% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_9.5 |
61.7% |
under_9.5 |
38.3% |
over_11.5 |
39.3% |
| under_11.5 |
60.7% |
over_13.5 |
21.1% |
under_13.5 |
78.9% |
|
team_away
| over_9.5 |
69.6% |
under_9.5 |
30.4% |
over_11.5 |
48.1% |
| under_11.5 |
51.9% |
over_13.5 |
28.3% |
under_13.5 |
71.7% |
|
most
| home |
39.9% |
draw |
7.8% |
away |
52.3% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
19.8% |
away_+3.5 |
80.2% |
home_-0.5 |
39.9% |
| away_+0.5 |
60.1% |
home_+2.5 |
63.3% |
away_-2.5 |
36.7% |
|
Red card range, not a point
any
home
away
Championship
Sheffield United
Wolves