Celta B vs Eibar prediction & probabilities (2026-09-14)

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Celta B vs Eibar: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 13 Sep 2026

Segunda División
Celta B

DWLW

Mon, 14 Sep 202619:30UK
Eibar

LLWWW

Model’s top convictions

75%

Draw or Eibar

67%

Over 1.5 goals

61%

Under 2.5 goals

Fairly pricedValue_gap +0.022 <= 0.03.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
EibarWin probability
46.1%
Top 3 convictions

Draw or Eibar75.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.33
Over 1.5 goals66.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.50
Under 2.5 goals60.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.65

Model read

▾

"46% on Eibar is a measurement, not a promise." Celta B versus Eibar on 14 September 2026 tilts towards Eibar in our numbers (46%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. Bookmakers see it the same way, 44% on Eibar, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 40% with both teams to score at 45%. Recent form reads W2 D1 L1 for Celta B against W4 D0 L2 for Eibar. As a promoted side, Celta B carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.022 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Eibar win46.1%@ 2.17
Over 9.5 corners44.7%@ 2.24
Over 2.5 goals39.5%@ 2.53
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners55.8%@ 1.79
Not both teams to score54.9%@ 1.82
Celta B or draw53.8%@ 1.86
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.5%@ 7.43
0-1 correct score13.4%@ 7.49
0-0 correct score11.0%@ 9.09

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Celta B

24.8%-2.3%

Draw

29.0%+0.1%

Eibar

46.1%+2.2%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.022 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.566.8%

Strong chance

Over 2.539.5%

Toss-up

BTTS · Yes45.1%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.555.8%

Good chance

Over 9.544.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.534.5%

Toss-up

Over 11.525.7%

Low chance

Most cornersCelta B57.8%Eibar31.3%

Shots markets

Over 22.561.7%

Strong chance

Over 24.548.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.536.3%

Toss-up

Over 28.525.3%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Celta B10.5 taken16.2 faced
Eibar10.7 taken17.5 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.566.8%2.539.5%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.566.8%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Value_gap +0.022 <= 0.03.

Form & head-to-head

Celta BDWLW
EibarLLWWW

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Celta BEibar
League position#6 of 22#2 of 22
Record W-D-L2-1-13-0-1
Current streakW1W3
Record, home vs away1-0-11-0-0
Red cards this season02

League averages this season: 2.27 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 39% · BTTS in 39%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Celta B win3.404.03
Draw3.203.45
Eibar win2.152.17
Over 2.5 goals2.152.53
Under 2.5 goals1.671.65

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Celta B win4.03
Draw3.45
Eibar win2.17
Both teams to score2.22

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.12
Over 1.5 goals1.50
Over 2.5 goals2.53
Over 3.5 goals5.15
Celta B most4.03
Eibar most2.17

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.43
Over 8.5 corners1.73
Over 9.5 corners2.21
Over 10.5 corners2.96
Celta B most1.73
Eibar most3.19

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.14
Over 3.5 cards1.35
Over 4.5 cards1.77
Over 5.5 cards2.57
Celta B most2.66
Eibar most2.27

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.46
Over 7.5 SoT1.82
Over 8.5 SoT2.40
Over 9.5 SoT3.37
Celta B most1.72
Eibar most3.45

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.62
Over 24.5 shots2.05
Over 26.5 shots2.76
Over 28.5 shots3.95
Celta B most1.49
Eibar most3.67

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.22
Over 22.5 fouls1.41
Over 24.5 fouls1.72
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 61.7% Over 24.5 48.7% Over 26.5 36.3% Over 28.5 25.3%
Most: Celta B 67.0% Most: Eibar 27.3%
Celta B Over 13.2 50.9% Eibar Over 13.2 23.0%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 68.5% Over 7.5 55.1% Over 8.5 41.7% Over 9.5 29.7%
Most: Celta B 58.1% Most: Eibar 29.0%
Celta B Over 4.2 48.1% Eibar Over 4.2 27.3%

Cards

Over 2.5 87.8% Over 3.5 73.9% Over 4.5 56.5%
Most: Celta B 37.6% Most: Eibar 44.1%
Celta B Over 1.8 69.6% Eibar Over 1.8 73.4%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Celta B clean sheet 25.9%
Eibar clean sheet 39.9%
Celta B win to nil 14.9%
Eibar win to nil 28.9%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 24.8% draw 29.0% away 46.2%
double_chance
1X 53.8% 12 71.0% X2 75.2%
dnb
home 35.0% away 65.0%
btts
yes 45.1% no 54.9%
clean_sheet
home 25.9% away 40.0%
win_to_nil
home 14.9% away 29.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 16.1% home_by_2 6.5% home_by_3plus 2.3%
away_by_1 24.0% away_by_2 14.0% away_by_3plus 8.2%
correct_score
0-0 11.0% 0-1 13.4% 0-2 9.5%
0-3 4.3% 0-4 1.4% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 8.9% 1-1 13.5% 1-2 8.6%
1-3 3.9% 1-4 1.3% 1-5 0.4%
2-0 4.4% 2-1 5.9% 2-2 4.0%
2-3 1.8% 2-4 0.6% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 1.3% 3-1 1.8% 3-2 1.2%
3-3 0.5% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.3% 4-1 0.4% 4-2 0.3%
4-3 0.1% 4-4 0.0% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.1% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.3%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 89.0% under_0.5 11.0% over_1.5 66.8%
under_1.5 33.2% over_2.5 39.5% under_2.5 60.5%
over_3.5 19.4% under_3.5 80.6% over_4.5 8.0%
under_4.5 92.0% over_5.5 2.8% under_5.5 97.2%
odd_even
odd 48.2% even 51.8%
team_home
over_0.5 60.0% under_0.5 40.0% over_1.5 23.4%
under_1.5 76.6% over_2.5 6.6% under_2.5 93.4%
team_away
over_0.5 74.1% under_0.5 25.9% over_1.5 39.1%
under_1.5 60.9% over_2.5 15.5% under_2.5 84.5%
most
home 24.8% draw 29.0% away 46.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 2.3% away_+2.5 97.7% home_-1.5 8.8%
away_+1.5 91.3% home_-0.5 24.8% away_+0.5 75.2%
home_+0.5 53.8% away_-0.5 46.2% home_+1.5 77.8%
away_-1.5 22.2% home_+2.5 91.8% away_-2.5 8.2%
total_exact
exact_0 11.0% exact_1 22.2% exact_2 27.3%
exact_3 20.1% exact_4 11.4% exact_5 5.2%
exact_6 2.0% exact_7plus 0.9%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 21.8% draw 51.8% away 26.4%
total
over_0.5 55.9% under_0.5 44.1% over_1.5 19.8%
under_1.5 80.2% over_2.5 5.0% under_2.5 95.0%
btts
yes 11.2% no 88.8%
total_exact
exact_0 44.1% exact_1 36.1% exact_2 14.8%
exact_3 4.0% exact_4plus 1.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 40.2% draw 36.6% away 23.2%
total
over_0.5 77.0% under_0.5 23.0% over_1.5 43.2%
under_1.5 56.8% over_2.5 18.3% under_2.5 81.7%
btts
yes 26.1% no 73.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 17.4% H/D 3.3% H/A 1.1%
D/H 20.8% D/D 19.0% D/A 12.0%
A/H 3.2% A/D 6.0% A/A 17.2%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 69.9% under_7.5 30.1% over_8.5 57.7%
under_8.5 42.3% over_9.5 45.3% under_9.5 54.7%
over_10.5 33.8% under_10.5 66.2% over_11.5 23.9%
under_11.5 76.1% over_12.5 16.1% under_12.5 83.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.7% under_3.5 26.4% over_4.5 58.3%
under_4.5 41.7% over_5.5 42.9% under_5.5 57.2%
team_away
over_3.5 55.5% under_3.5 44.6% over_4.5 37.9%
under_4.5 62.1% over_5.5 23.7% under_5.5 76.3%
most
home 57.9% draw 10.7% away 31.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.9% away_+3.5 74.1% home_-1.5 46.6%
away_+1.5 53.4% home_-0.5 57.9% away_+0.5 42.1%
home_+0.5 68.6% away_-0.5 31.4% home_+1.5 78.0%
away_-1.5 22.0% home_+3.5 90.9% away_-3.5 9.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 61.7% under_22.5 38.3% over_24.5 48.7%
under_24.5 51.3% over_26.5 36.3% under_26.5 63.7%
over_28.5 25.3% under_28.5 74.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 75.6% under_10.5 24.4% over_12.5 59.4%
under_12.5 40.6% over_14.5 42.6% under_14.5 57.4%
team_away
over_10.5 48.7% under_10.5 51.3% over_12.5 30.5%
under_12.5 69.6% over_14.5 16.9% under_14.5 83.1%
most
home 67.0% draw 5.8% away 27.3%
handicap
home_-4.5 41.3% away_+4.5 58.7% home_-2.5 54.4%
away_+2.5 45.6% home_-0.5 67.0% away_+0.5 33.0%
home_+0.5 72.7% away_-0.5 27.3% home_+2.5 82.5%
away_-2.5 17.5% home_+4.5 89.7% away_-4.5 10.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 68.5% under_6.5 31.5% over_7.5 55.1%
under_7.5 44.9% over_8.5 41.7% under_8.5 58.3%
over_9.5 29.7% under_9.5 70.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 66.2% under_3.5 33.8% over_4.5 48.1%
under_4.5 51.9% over_5.5 31.6% under_5.5 68.4%
team_away
over_3.5 45.5% under_3.5 54.5% over_4.5 27.3%
under_4.5 72.7% over_5.5 14.6% under_5.5 85.4%
most
home 58.1% draw 12.9% away 29.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 31.3% away_+2.5 68.7% home_-0.5 58.1%
away_+0.5 41.9% home_+0.5 71.0% away_-0.5 29.0%
home_+2.5 89.4% away_-2.5 10.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 87.8% under_2.5 12.2% over_3.5 73.9%
under_3.5 26.1% over_4.5 56.5% under_4.5 43.5%
over_5.5 39.0% under_5.5 61.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 69.6% under_1.5 30.4% over_2.5 43.6%
under_2.5 56.4%
team_away
over_1.5 73.4% under_1.5 26.6% over_2.5 48.4%
under_2.5 51.6%
most
home 37.6% draw 18.2% away 44.1%
handicap
home_-1.5 21.9% away_+1.5 78.1% home_-0.5 37.6%
away_+0.5 62.4% home_+0.5 55.9% away_-0.5 44.1%
home_+1.5 72.8% away_-1.5 27.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 81.9% under_20.5 18.1% over_22.5 71.0%
under_22.5 29.0% over_24.5 58.1% under_24.5 41.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 77.7% under_9.5 22.3% over_11.5 59.7%
under_11.5 40.3% over_13.5 40.8% under_13.5 59.2%
team_away
over_9.5 80.3% under_9.5 19.7% over_11.5 63.3%
under_11.5 36.7% over_13.5 44.5% under_13.5 55.5%
most
home 44.0% draw 6.8% away 49.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.4% away_+3.5 74.6% home_-0.5 44.0%
away_+0.5 56.0% home_+2.5 64.0% away_-2.5 36.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 23.1% no 76.9%
home
yes 7.1% no 92.9%
away
yes 17.2% no 82.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Celta B predictions · Eibar predictions · Segunda División

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Markets

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Segunda DivisiónCelta BEibarTrack record