Guingamp vs Annecy prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

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Guingamp vs Annecy: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

Ligue 2
Guingamp

LWLDD

Sat, 12 Sep 202613:00UK
Annecy

WWLDW

Model’s top convictions

74%

Over 1.5 goals

66%

Draw or Annecy

62%

Guingamp or draw

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.27).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
AnnecyWin probability
38.6%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals73.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.35
Draw or Annecy66.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.51
Guingamp or draw61.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.63

Model read

▾

The probabilities barely separate Guingamp and Annecy on 12 September 2026: Annecy nose ahead at 39%. Notably, the model is warmer on Annecy than the market (27%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. Totals sit close to the fence: 48% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 53%. Form guide over the last six: Guingamp W1 D2 L3, Annecy W3 D1 L2. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Guingamp, 1 draws and 3 for Annecy, averaging 3.6 goals a game. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.27).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners42.2%@ 2.37
Annecy win38.6%@ 2.59
Over 10.5 corners32.2%@ 3.11
Medium risk

Both teams to score53.4%@ 1.87
Over 8.5 corners53.3%@ 1.88
Under 2.5 goals51.9%@ 1.93
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.1%@ 7.61
0-1 correct score9.4%@ 10.65
1-0 correct score8.7%@ 11.52

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Guingamp

33.9%-9.5%

Draw

27.6%-1.9%

Annecy

38.6%+11.6%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.27)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.573.9%

Strong chance

Over 2.548.1%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes53.4%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.553.3%

Good chance

Over 9.542.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.532.2%

Toss-up

Over 11.523.7%

Low chance

Most cornersGuingamp53.5%Annecy35.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.551.9%

Good chance

Over 24.539.1%

Toss-up

Over 26.527.7%

Low chance

Over 28.518.4%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Guingamp15.3 taken13.8 faced
Annecy10.7 taken14.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.573.9%2.548.1%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.573.9%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.27).

Form & head-to-head

GuingampLWLDD
AnnecyWWLDW

Last 5 meetings: Guingamp 1 · 1 draws · Annecy 3 · 3.6 goals/game.

2026-04-03Annecy 1-0 Guingamp
2025-12-05Guingamp 0-3 Annecy
2025-01-10Annecy 1-4 Guingamp
2024-09-20Guingamp 2-2 Annecy
2024-02-03Guingamp 1-4 Annecy

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

GuingampAnnecy
League position#11 of 18#2 of 18
Record W-D-L1-2-23-1-1
Current streakD2W1
Points per game1.002.00
Record, home vs away1-1-02-0-1
PPG, home vs away·2.00
Goals scored per game1.401.40
Goals conceded per game1.601.00
Scored, home vs away·1.33
Conceded, home vs away·1.33
1st half goals per game0.600.80
2nd half goals per game0.800.60
Corners won per game3.65.6
Cards per game1.81.6
Fouls per game11.613.6
Red cards this season01
Shots per game15.011.4
Shots faced per game12.814.4
Shots on target per game6.04.2
Over 2.5 rate

60.0%40.0%

BTTS rate

60.0%60.0%

Clean sheets

20.0%40.0%

Rates this season:GuingampAnnecy

League averages this season: 2.56 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 44% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Guingamp win2.102.95
Draw3.003.62
Annecy win3.252.59
Over 2.5 goals1.982.08
Under 2.5 goals1.831.93

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Guingamp win2.95
Draw3.62
Annecy win2.59
Both teams to score1.87

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.35
Over 2.5 goals2.08
Over 3.5 goals3.79
Guingamp most2.95
Annecy most2.59

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.49
Over 8.5 corners1.83
Over 9.5 corners2.35
Over 10.5 corners3.19
Guingamp most1.86
Annecy most2.84

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.41
Over 3.5 cards2.00
Over 4.5 cards3.26
Over 5.5 cards6.04
Guingamp most3.56
Annecy most1.96

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.57
Over 7.5 SoT1.97
Over 8.5 SoT2.61
Over 9.5 SoT3.66
Guingamp most2.02
Annecy most2.68

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.93
Over 24.5 shots2.56
Over 26.5 shots3.62
Over 28.5 shots5.44
Guingamp most1.67
Annecy most2.96

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.12
Over 22.5 fouls1.25
Over 24.5 fouls1.46
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 51.9% Over 24.5 39.1% Over 26.5 27.7% Over 28.5 18.4%
Most: Guingamp 59.9% Most: Annecy 33.8%
Guingamp Over 13.2 39.2% Annecy Over 13.2 22.1%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 63.9% Over 7.5 50.8% Over 8.5 38.3% Over 9.5 27.3%
Most: Guingamp 49.5% Most: Annecy 37.3%
Guingamp Over 4.2 39.6% Annecy Over 4.2 31.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 70.9% Over 3.5 49.9% Over 4.5 30.7%
Most: Guingamp 28.1% Most: Annecy 51.1%
Guingamp Over 1.8 45.7% Annecy Over 1.8 62.7%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Guingamp clean sheet 25.9%
Annecy clean sheet 28.6%
Guingamp win to nil 17.9%
Annecy win to nil 20.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 33.9% draw 27.6% away 38.6%
double_chance
1X 61.5% 12 72.4% X2 66.1%
dnb
home 46.8% away 53.2%
btts
yes 53.4% no 46.6%
clean_sheet
home 26.0% away 28.7%
win_to_nil
home 17.9% away 20.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1 19.0% home_by_2 9.8% home_by_3plus 5.0%
away_by_1 20.6% away_by_2 11.5% away_by_3plus 6.5%
correct_score
0-0 8.1% 0-1 9.4% 0-2 6.8%
0-3 3.1% 0-4 1.0% 0-5 0.3%
1-0 8.7% 1-1 13.1% 1-2 8.4%
1-3 3.8% 1-4 1.3% 1-5 0.4%
2-0 5.8% 2-1 7.8% 2-2 5.3%
2-3 2.4% 2-4 0.8% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 2.4% 3-1 3.3% 3-2 2.2%
3-3 1.0% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.8% 4-1 1.0% 4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.5%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.9% under_0.5 8.1% over_1.5 73.9%
under_1.5 26.1% over_2.5 48.2% under_2.5 51.8%
over_3.5 26.4% under_3.5 73.6% over_4.5 12.3%
under_4.5 87.7% over_5.5 4.9% under_5.5 95.1%
odd_even
odd 48.5% even 51.5%
team_home
over_0.5 71.3% under_0.5 28.7% over_1.5 35.5%
under_1.5 64.5% over_2.5 13.1% under_2.5 86.9%
team_away
over_0.5 74.0% under_0.5 26.0% over_1.5 39.1%
under_1.5 60.9% over_2.5 15.5% under_2.5 84.5%
most
home 33.9% draw 27.6% away 38.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 5.0% away_+2.5 95.0% home_-1.5 14.8%
away_+1.5 85.2% home_-0.5 33.9% away_+0.5 66.1%
home_+0.5 61.5% away_-0.5 38.6% home_+1.5 82.0%
away_-1.5 18.0% home_+2.5 93.5% away_-2.5 6.5%
total_exact
exact_0 8.1% exact_1 18.1% exact_2 25.7%
exact_3 21.7% exact_4 14.1% exact_5 7.4%
exact_6 3.2% exact_7plus 1.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 24.1% draw 43.4% away 32.6%
total
over_0.5 67.6% under_0.5 32.4% over_1.5 31.1%
under_1.5 68.9% over_2.5 10.5% under_2.5 89.5%
btts
yes 18.3% no 81.7%
total_exact
exact_0 32.4% exact_1 36.5% exact_2 20.6%
exact_3 7.7% exact_4plus 2.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 30.5% draw 36.2% away 33.3%
total
over_0.5 78.5% under_0.5 21.5% over_1.5 45.5%
under_1.5 54.5% over_2.5 20.1% under_2.5 79.9%
btts
yes 28.7% no 71.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 17.3% H/D 4.6% H/A 2.1%
D/H 13.2% D/D 15.7% D/A 14.5%
A/H 2.4% A/D 5.6% A/A 24.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 67.1% under_7.5 32.9% over_8.5 54.8%
under_8.5 45.3% over_9.5 42.5% under_9.5 57.5%
over_10.5 31.3% under_10.5 68.7% over_11.5 22.0%
under_11.5 78.0% over_12.5 14.7% under_12.5 85.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 69.5% under_3.5 30.5% over_4.5 53.4%
under_4.5 46.6% over_5.5 38.0% under_5.5 62.0%
team_away
over_3.5 56.7% under_3.5 43.3% over_4.5 39.3%
under_4.5 60.7% over_5.5 25.0% under_5.5 75.0%
most
home 53.7% draw 11.2% away 35.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.3% away_+3.5 77.7% home_-1.5 42.2%
away_+1.5 57.8% home_-0.5 53.7% away_+0.5 46.4%
home_+0.5 64.8% away_-0.5 35.2% home_+1.5 74.8%
away_-1.5 25.2% home_+3.5 89.2% away_-3.5 10.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 51.9% under_22.5 48.1% over_24.5 39.1%
under_24.5 60.9% over_26.5 27.7% under_26.5 72.3%
over_28.5 18.4% under_28.5 81.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 65.4% under_10.5 34.6% over_12.5 47.7%
under_12.5 52.3% over_14.5 31.5% under_14.5 68.5%
team_away
over_10.5 47.1% under_10.5 52.9% over_12.5 29.3%
under_12.5 70.7% over_14.5 16.3% under_14.5 83.7%
most
home 59.9% draw 6.3% away 33.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 33.8% away_+4.5 66.3% home_-2.5 46.6%
away_+2.5 53.4% home_-0.5 59.9% away_+0.5 40.1%
home_+0.5 66.2% away_-0.5 33.8% home_+2.5 77.5%
away_-2.5 22.5% home_+4.5 86.2% away_-4.5 13.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 63.9% under_6.5 36.1% over_7.5 50.8%
under_7.5 49.2% over_8.5 38.3% under_8.5 61.8%
over_9.5 27.3% under_9.5 72.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 57.1% under_3.5 42.9% over_4.5 39.6%
under_4.5 60.4% over_5.5 25.2% under_5.5 74.8%
team_away
over_3.5 48.4% under_3.5 51.6% over_4.5 31.1%
under_4.5 69.0% over_5.5 18.2% under_5.5 81.9%
most
home 49.5% draw 13.2% away 37.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 24.9% away_+2.5 75.1% home_-0.5 49.5%
away_+0.5 50.5% home_+0.5 62.7% away_-0.5 37.3%
home_+2.5 83.9% away_-2.5 16.1%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 70.9% under_2.5 29.1% over_3.5 49.9%
under_3.5 50.1% over_4.5 30.7% under_4.5 69.3%
over_5.5 16.6% under_5.5 83.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 45.7% under_1.5 54.3% over_2.5 20.2%
under_2.5 79.8%
team_away
over_1.5 62.6% under_1.5 37.4% over_2.5 35.7%
under_2.5 64.3%
most
home 28.1% draw 20.9% away 51.1%
handicap
home_-1.5 13.0% away_+1.5 87.0% home_-0.5 28.1%
away_+0.5 71.9% home_+0.5 48.9% away_-0.5 51.1%
home_+1.5 69.7% away_-1.5 30.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 89.1% under_20.5 10.9% over_22.5 80.3%
under_22.5 19.7% over_24.5 68.6% under_24.5 31.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 71.4% under_9.5 28.6% over_11.5 50.4%
under_11.5 49.6% over_13.5 30.5% under_13.5 69.5%
team_away
over_9.5 93.1% under_9.5 6.9% over_11.5 83.1%
under_11.5 16.9% over_13.5 67.8% under_13.5 32.2%
most
home 22.0% draw 5.6% away 72.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 9.7% away_+3.5 90.3% home_-0.5 22.0%
away_+0.5 78.0% home_+2.5 40.5% away_-2.5 59.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 18.9% no 81.1%
home
yes 5.9% no 94.1%
away
yes 13.8% no 86.2%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Guingamp predictions · Annecy predictions · Ligue 2

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Ligue 2GuingampAnnecyTrack record