Shots
| Over 22.5 |
56.7% |
Over 24.5 |
43.9% |
Over 26.5 |
32.0% |
Over 28.5 |
22.0% |
| Most: Shrewsbury |
55.7% |
Most: Northampton |
37.9% |
| Shrewsbury Over 13.2 |
39.7% |
Northampton Over 13.2 |
27.7% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 |
58.7% |
Over 7.5 |
45.4% |
Over 8.5 |
33.2% |
Over 9.5 |
23.0% |
| Most: Shrewsbury |
47.9% |
Most: Northampton |
38.5% |
| Shrewsbury Over 4.2 |
35.0% |
Northampton Over 4.2 |
28.6% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 |
71.5% |
Over 3.5 |
50.7% |
Over 4.5 |
31.4% |
| Most: Shrewsbury |
37.3% |
Most: Northampton |
41.2% |
| Shrewsbury Over 1.8 |
53.8% |
Northampton Over 1.8 |
56.7% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Shrewsbury clean sheet |
34.9% |
| Northampton clean sheet |
28.8% |
| Shrewsbury win to nil |
24.2% |
| Northampton win to nil |
18.1% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home |
40.0% |
draw |
29.5% |
away |
30.5% |
|
double_chance
| 1X |
69.5% |
12 |
70.5% |
X2 |
60.0% |
|
dnb
btts
clean_sheet
win_to_nil
winning_margin
| home_by_1 |
22.0% |
home_by_2 |
11.8% |
home_by_3plus |
6.2% |
| away_by_1 |
18.5% |
away_by_2 |
8.4% |
away_by_3plus |
3.5% |
|
correct_score
| 0-0 |
10.7% |
0-1 |
9.9% |
0-2 |
5.6% |
| 0-3 |
2.0% |
0-4 |
0.5% |
0-5 |
0.1% |
| 1-0 |
11.9% |
1-1 |
13.8% |
1-2 |
6.9% |
| 1-3 |
2.4% |
1-4 |
0.6% |
1-5 |
0.1% |
| 2-0 |
7.8% |
2-1 |
8.2% |
2-2 |
4.3% |
| 2-3 |
1.5% |
2-4 |
0.4% |
2-5 |
0.1% |
| 3-0 |
3.2% |
3-1 |
3.4% |
3-2 |
1.8% |
| 3-3 |
0.6% |
3-4 |
0.2% |
3-5 |
0.0% |
| 4-0 |
1.0% |
4-1 |
1.1% |
4-2 |
0.6% |
| 4-3 |
0.2% |
4-4 |
0.1% |
4-5 |
0.0% |
| 5-0 |
0.3% |
5-1 |
0.3% |
5-2 |
0.1% |
| 5-3 |
0.1% |
5-4 |
0.0% |
5-5 |
0.0% |
| other |
0.3% |
likeliest_score
| h |
100.0% |
a |
100.0% |
p |
13.8% |
|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 |
89.3% |
under_0.5 |
10.7% |
over_1.5 |
67.5% |
| under_1.5 |
32.5% |
over_2.5 |
40.3% |
under_2.5 |
59.7% |
| over_3.5 |
20.0% |
under_3.5 |
80.0% |
over_4.5 |
8.3% |
| under_4.5 |
91.7% |
over_5.5 |
3.0% |
under_5.5 |
97.0% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_0.5 |
71.2% |
under_0.5 |
28.8% |
over_1.5 |
35.3% |
| under_1.5 |
64.7% |
over_2.5 |
13.0% |
under_2.5 |
87.0% |
|
team_away
| over_0.5 |
65.0% |
under_0.5 |
35.0% |
over_1.5 |
28.3% |
| under_1.5 |
71.7% |
over_2.5 |
9.0% |
under_2.5 |
91.0% |
|
most
| home |
40.0% |
draw |
29.5% |
away |
30.5% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
6.2% |
away_+2.5 |
93.9% |
home_-1.5 |
18.0% |
| away_+1.5 |
82.0% |
home_-0.5 |
40.0% |
away_+0.5 |
60.0% |
| home_+0.5 |
69.5% |
away_-0.5 |
30.5% |
home_+1.5 |
88.0% |
| away_-1.5 |
12.0% |
home_+2.5 |
96.5% |
away_-2.5 |
3.5% |
|
total_exact
| exact_0 |
10.7% |
exact_1 |
21.8% |
exact_2 |
27.2% |
| exact_3 |
20.3% |
exact_4 |
11.7% |
exact_5 |
5.4% |
| exact_6 |
2.1% |
exact_7plus |
0.9% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
15.8% |
draw |
51.3% |
away |
32.9% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
55.6% |
under_0.5 |
44.4% |
over_1.5 |
19.6% |
| under_1.5 |
80.4% |
over_2.5 |
4.9% |
under_2.5 |
95.1% |
|
btts
total_exact
| exact_0 |
44.4% |
exact_1 |
36.1% |
exact_2 |
14.6% |
| exact_3 |
4.0% |
exact_4plus |
1.0% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
24.9% |
draw |
46.7% |
away |
28.4% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
63.0% |
under_0.5 |
37.0% |
over_1.5 |
26.2% |
| under_1.5 |
73.8% |
over_2.5 |
7.9% |
under_2.5 |
92.1% |
|
btts
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H |
11.8% |
H/D |
3.1% |
H/A |
0.9% |
| D/H |
12.8% |
D/D |
24.0% |
D/A |
14.6% |
| A/H |
1.4% |
A/D |
5.2% |
A/A |
26.3% |
|
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 |
74.0% |
under_7.5 |
26.0% |
over_8.5 |
62.9% |
| under_8.5 |
37.1% |
over_9.5 |
51.2% |
under_9.5 |
48.8% |
| over_10.5 |
39.8% |
under_10.5 |
60.3% |
over_11.5 |
29.5% |
| under_11.5 |
70.5% |
over_12.5 |
21.0% |
under_12.5 |
79.0% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
73.3% |
under_3.5 |
26.7% |
over_4.5 |
58.2% |
| under_4.5 |
41.8% |
over_5.5 |
43.2% |
under_5.5 |
56.9% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
62.7% |
under_3.5 |
37.3% |
over_4.5 |
45.9% |
| under_4.5 |
54.1% |
over_5.5 |
31.0% |
under_5.5 |
69.0% |
|
most
| home |
52.9% |
draw |
10.6% |
away |
36.4% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
23.1% |
away_+3.5 |
77.0% |
home_-1.5 |
42.1% |
| away_+1.5 |
57.9% |
home_-0.5 |
52.9% |
away_+0.5 |
47.1% |
| home_+0.5 |
63.6% |
away_-0.5 |
36.4% |
home_+1.5 |
73.2% |
| away_-1.5 |
26.8% |
home_+3.5 |
87.7% |
away_-3.5 |
12.3% |
|
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 |
56.7% |
under_22.5 |
43.3% |
over_24.5 |
43.9% |
| under_24.5 |
56.2% |
over_26.5 |
32.0% |
under_26.5 |
68.0% |
| over_28.5 |
22.0% |
under_28.5 |
78.0% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_10.5 |
65.8% |
under_10.5 |
34.2% |
over_12.5 |
48.2% |
| under_12.5 |
51.8% |
over_14.5 |
32.0% |
under_14.5 |
68.0% |
|
team_away
| over_10.5 |
53.6% |
under_10.5 |
46.4% |
over_12.5 |
35.5% |
| under_12.5 |
64.5% |
over_14.5 |
21.1% |
under_14.5 |
78.9% |
|
most
| home |
55.7% |
draw |
6.4% |
away |
37.9% |
|
handicap
| home_-4.5 |
30.5% |
away_+4.5 |
69.5% |
home_-2.5 |
42.7% |
| away_+2.5 |
57.3% |
home_-0.5 |
55.7% |
away_+0.5 |
44.3% |
| home_+0.5 |
62.1% |
away_-0.5 |
37.9% |
home_+2.5 |
73.8% |
| away_-2.5 |
26.2% |
home_+4.5 |
83.3% |
away_-4.5 |
16.8% |
|
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 |
58.7% |
under_6.5 |
41.3% |
over_7.5 |
45.4% |
| under_7.5 |
54.6% |
over_8.5 |
33.2% |
under_8.5 |
66.8% |
| over_9.5 |
23.0% |
under_9.5 |
77.0% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
52.3% |
under_3.5 |
47.7% |
over_4.5 |
35.0% |
| under_4.5 |
65.0% |
over_5.5 |
21.5% |
under_5.5 |
78.6% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
45.5% |
under_3.5 |
54.5% |
over_4.5 |
28.6% |
| under_4.5 |
71.4% |
over_5.5 |
16.4% |
under_5.5 |
83.6% |
|
most
| home |
47.9% |
draw |
13.6% |
away |
38.5% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
23.2% |
away_+2.5 |
76.8% |
home_-0.5 |
47.9% |
| away_+0.5 |
52.1% |
home_+0.5 |
61.5% |
away_-0.5 |
38.5% |
| home_+2.5 |
83.5% |
away_-2.5 |
16.5% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 |
71.5% |
under_2.5 |
28.5% |
over_3.5 |
50.7% |
| under_3.5 |
49.3% |
over_4.5 |
31.4% |
under_4.5 |
68.6% |
| over_5.5 |
17.1% |
under_5.5 |
82.9% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_1.5 |
53.8% |
under_1.5 |
46.2% |
over_2.5 |
27.0% |
| under_2.5 |
73.0% |
team_away
| over_1.5 |
56.7% |
under_1.5 |
43.4% |
over_2.5 |
29.7% |
| under_2.5 |
70.3% |
most
| home |
37.3% |
draw |
21.6% |
away |
41.2% |
|
handicap
| home_-1.5 |
19.4% |
away_+1.5 |
80.6% |
home_-0.5 |
37.3% |
| away_+0.5 |
62.7% |
home_+0.5 |
58.8% |
away_-0.5 |
41.2% |
| home_+1.5 |
77.7% |
away_-1.5 |
22.3% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 |
64.9% |
under_20.5 |
35.1% |
over_22.5 |
49.3% |
| under_22.5 |
50.7% |
over_24.5 |
34.4% |
under_24.5 |
65.6% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_9.5 |
61.8% |
under_9.5 |
38.2% |
over_11.5 |
39.3% |
| under_11.5 |
60.7% |
over_13.5 |
20.9% |
under_13.5 |
79.1% |
|
team_away
| over_9.5 |
72.8% |
under_9.5 |
27.2% |
over_11.5 |
51.8% |
| under_11.5 |
48.2% |
over_13.5 |
31.4% |
under_13.5 |
68.6% |
|
most
| home |
37.4% |
draw |
7.7% |
away |
54.9% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
18.0% |
away_+3.5 |
82.0% |
home_-0.5 |
37.4% |
| away_+0.5 |
62.6% |
home_+2.5 |
60.8% |
away_-2.5 |
39.2% |
|
Red card range, not a point
any
home
away
League Two