Gaziantep vs Fenerbahce: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 13 Sep 2026

Süper Lig

Gaziantep

LDWLW

Mon, 14 Sep 202618:00UK

Fenerbahce

DLWWL

Model’s top convictions

85%

Over 1.5 goals

75%

Draw or Fenerbahce

65%

Over 2.5 goals

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.16).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

FenerbahceWin probability

51.8%

Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals84.9%High probabilityPays @ 1.18

Draw or Fenerbahce74.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.34

Over 2.5 goals64.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.55

Model read

▾

On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Fenerbahce heavy favourites at 52% when Gaziantep meet Fenerbahce in the Süper Lig on 14 September 2026. The numbers that frame it: • The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Fenerbahce at 62%. Caution noted. • Everything in the shot data points to goals, 64% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 64%. • Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 0 wins for Gaziantep, 0 draws and 5 for Fenerbahce, averaging 3.6 goals a game. • The run in: Gaziantep arrive W2 D1 L3, Fenerbahce W3 D1 L2. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.16).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners38.5%@ 2.60

Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners59.2%@ 1.69

Over 9.5 corners48.5%@ 2.06

Gaziantep or draw48.2%@ 2.07

Random finds

1-1 correct score10.1%@ 9.93

1-2 correct score9.5%@ 10.55

0-2 correct score7.1%@ 14.14

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Gaziantep

25.4%+9.3%

Draw

22.8%+1.0%

Fenerbahce

51.8%-10.3%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.16)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.584.9%

High probability

Over 2.564.5%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes64.1%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.559.2%

Good chance

Over 9.548.5%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.538.5%

Toss-up

Over 11.529.5%

Low chance

Most cornersGaziantep47.2%Fenerbahce41.9%

Shots markets

Over 22.567.3%

Strong chance

Over 24.555.5%

Good chance

Over 26.543.6%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.532.5%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

Gaziantep12.7 taken13.3 faced

Fenerbahce18.8 taken10.5 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.584.9%2.564.5%3.5·4.5·

Recommended focusOver 2.564.5%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.16).

Form & head-to-head

GaziantepLDWLW

FenerbahceDLWWL

Last 5 meetings: Gaziantep 0 · 0 draws · Fenerbahce 5 · 3.6 goals/game.

2026-03-17Fenerbahce 4-1 Gaziantep

2025-10-27Gaziantep 0-4 Fenerbahce

2025-04-26Gaziantep 1-3 Fenerbahce

2024-12-02Fenerbahce 3-1 Gaziantep

2024-01-14Gaziantep 0-1 Fenerbahce

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Gaziantep

Fenerbahce

League position#6 of 18#9 of 18

Record W-D-L2-1-12-0-2

Current streakW1L1

Record, home vs away0-1-11-0-1

Red cards this season10

League averages this season: 2.92 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 53% · BTTS in 53%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair

Gaziantep win5.253.94

Draw4.004.39

Fenerbahce win1.511.93

Over 2.5 goals1.731.55

Under 2.5 goals2.082.82

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Gaziantep win3.93

Draw4.39

Fenerbahce win1.93

Both teams to score1.56

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.18

Over 2.5 goals1.55

Over 3.5 goals2.36

Over 4.5 goals4.14

Gaziantep most3.93

Fenerbahce most1.93

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.37

Over 8.5 corners1.62

Over 9.5 corners2.01

Over 10.5 corners2.62

Gaziantep most2.11

Fenerbahce most2.38

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.14

Over 3.5 cards1.36

Over 4.5 cards1.78

Over 5.5 cards2.58

Gaziantep most2.47

Fenerbahce most2.43

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.27

Over 7.5 SoT1.46

Over 8.5 SoT1.77

Over 9.5 SoT2.24

Gaziantep most2.51

Fenerbahce most2.08

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.49

Over 24.5 shots1.80

Over 26.5 shots2.29

Over 28.5 shots3.08

Gaziantep most1.81

Fenerbahce most2.58

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.12

Over 22.5 fouls1.24

Over 24.5 fouls1.46

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5	67.3%	Over 24.5	55.5%	Over 26.5	43.6%	Over 28.5	32.5%
Most: Gaziantep	55.3%	Most: Fenerbahce	38.7%
Gaziantep Over 13.2	47.9%	Fenerbahce Over 13.2	36.0%

Shots on target

Over 6.5	78.9%	Over 7.5	68.3%	Over 8.5	56.5%	Over 9.5	44.7%
Most: Gaziantep	39.9%	Most: Fenerbahce	48.0%
Gaziantep Over 4.2	45.3%	Fenerbahce Over 4.2	51.2%

Cards

Over 2.5	87.7%	Over 3.5	73.8%	Over 4.5	56.3%
Most: Gaziantep	40.5%	Most: Fenerbahce	41.2%
Gaziantep Over 1.8	71.3%	Fenerbahce Over 1.8	71.7%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Gaziantep clean sheet	13.8%
Fenerbahce clean sheet	25.7%
Gaziantep win to nil	9.7%
Fenerbahce win to nil	21.6%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	25.5%	draw	22.8%	away	51.8%

double_chance

1X	48.2%	12	77.3%	X2	74.6%

dnb

home	33.0%	away	67.1%

btts

yes	64.1%	no	35.9%

clean_sheet

home	13.9%	away	26.1%

win_to_nil

home	9.8%	away	22.0%

winning_margin

home_by_1	14.4%	home_by_2	7.3%	home_by_3plus	3.8%
away_by_1	21.4%	away_by_2	15.8%	away_by_3plus	14.6%

correct_score

0-0	4.1%	0-1	6.7%	0-2	7.1%
0-3	4.7%	0-4	2.3%	0-5	0.9%
1-0	4.4%	1-1	10.1%	1-2	9.5%
1-3	6.3%	1-4	3.1%	1-5	1.2%
2-0	3.3%	2-1	6.4%	2-2	6.4%
2-3	4.2%	2-4	2.1%	2-5	0.8%
3-0	1.5%	3-1	2.9%	3-2	2.9%
3-3	1.9%	3-4	0.9%	3-5	0.4%
4-0	0.5%	4-1	1.0%	4-2	1.0%
4-3	0.6%	4-4	0.3%	4-5	0.1%
5-0	0.1%	5-1	0.3%	5-2	0.3%
5-3	0.2%	5-4	0.1%	5-5	0.0%
other	1.8%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	10.1%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	95.9%	under_0.5	4.1%	over_1.5	84.9%
under_1.5	15.1%	over_2.5	64.5%	under_2.5	35.5%
over_3.5	42.4%	under_3.5	57.6%	over_4.5	24.1%
under_4.5	75.9%	over_5.5	12.0%	under_5.5	88.0%

odd_even

odd	49.0%	even	51.0%

team_home

over_0.5	73.9%	under_0.5	26.1%	over_1.5	38.8%
under_1.5	61.2%	over_2.5	15.3%	under_2.5	84.7%

team_away

over_0.5	86.2%	under_0.5	13.9%	over_1.5	58.8%
under_1.5	41.2%	over_2.5	31.8%	under_2.5	68.2%

most

home	25.5%	draw	22.8%	away	51.8%

handicap

home_-2.5	3.8%	away_+2.5	96.2%	home_-1.5	11.1%
away_+1.5	88.9%	home_-0.5	25.5%	away_+0.5	74.6%
home_+0.5	48.2%	away_-0.5	51.8%	home_+1.5	69.6%
away_-1.5	30.4%	home_+2.5	85.4%	away_-2.5	14.6%

total_exact

exact_0	4.1%	exact_1	11.1%	exact_2	20.4%
exact_3	22.0%	exact_4	18.3%	exact_5	12.2%
exact_6	6.7%	exact_7plus	5.2%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	27.3%	draw	34.3%	away	38.4%

total

over_0.5	81.0%	under_0.5	19.0%	over_1.5	49.4%
under_1.5	50.6%	over_2.5	23.2%	under_2.5	76.8%

btts

yes	31.4%	no	68.6%

total_exact

exact_0	19.0%	exact_1	31.6%	exact_2	26.2%
exact_3	14.5%	exact_4plus	8.7%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	20.8%	draw	32.3%	away	46.9%

total

over_0.5	82.2%	under_0.5	17.8%	over_1.5	51.5%
under_1.5	48.5%	over_2.5	25.0%	under_2.5	75.0%

btts

yes	31.1%	no	69.0%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	16.9%	H/D	6.1%	H/A	4.2%
D/H	7.1%	D/D	11.1%	D/A	16.1%
A/H	1.4%	A/D	4.2%	A/A	32.8%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	73.2%	under_7.5	26.8%	over_8.5	61.8%
under_8.5	38.2%	over_9.5	49.8%	under_9.5	50.2%
over_10.5	38.2%	under_10.5	61.8%	over_11.5	28.0%
under_11.5	72.0%	over_12.5	19.6%	under_12.5	80.4%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	69.1%	under_3.5	30.9%	over_4.5	53.2%
under_4.5	46.8%	over_5.5	38.1%	under_5.5	61.9%

team_away

over_3.5	65.6%	under_3.5	34.4%	over_4.5	49.2%
under_4.5	50.8%	over_5.5	34.2%	under_5.5	65.8%

most

home	47.3%	draw	10.7%	away	42.0%

handicap

home_-3.5	19.2%	away_+3.5	80.8%	home_-1.5	36.8%
away_+1.5	63.2%	home_-0.5	47.3%	away_+0.5	52.7%
home_+0.5	58.0%	away_-0.5	42.0%	home_+1.5	68.1%
away_-1.5	31.9%	home_+3.5	84.2%	away_-3.5	15.8%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	67.3%	under_22.5	32.7%	over_24.5	55.5%
under_24.5	44.5%	over_26.5	43.6%	under_26.5	56.4%
over_28.5	32.5%	under_28.5	67.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	72.0%	under_10.5	28.0%	over_12.5	56.0%
under_12.5	44.0%	over_14.5	40.0%	under_14.5	60.0%

team_away

over_10.5	61.5%	under_10.5	38.5%	over_12.5	44.1%
under_12.5	55.9%	over_14.5	28.8%	under_14.5	71.2%

most

home	55.3%	draw	5.9%	away	38.7%

handicap

home_-4.5	31.7%	away_+4.5	68.3%	home_-2.5	43.2%
away_+2.5	56.8%	home_-0.5	55.3%	away_+0.5	44.7%
home_+0.5	61.3%	away_-0.5	38.7%	home_+2.5	72.3%
away_-2.5	27.7%	home_+4.5	81.5%	away_-4.5	18.5%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	78.9%	under_6.5	21.1%	over_7.5	68.3%
under_7.5	31.7%	over_8.5	56.5%	under_8.5	43.5%
over_9.5	44.7%	under_9.5	55.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	62.7%	under_3.5	37.3%	over_4.5	45.3%
under_4.5	54.7%	over_5.5	30.1%	under_5.5	69.9%

team_away

over_3.5	67.9%	under_3.5	32.1%	over_4.5	51.2%
under_4.5	48.8%	over_5.5	35.6%	under_5.5	64.4%

most

home	39.9%	draw	12.1%	away	48.0%

handicap

home_-2.5	19.4%	away_+2.5	80.6%	home_-0.5	39.9%
away_+0.5	60.1%	home_+0.5	52.0%	away_-0.5	48.0%
home_+2.5	74.4%	away_-2.5	25.6%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	87.7%	under_2.5	12.3%	over_3.5	73.8%
under_3.5	26.2%	over_4.5	56.3%	under_4.5	43.7%
over_5.5	38.8%	under_5.5	61.2%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	71.3%	under_1.5	28.7%	over_2.5	45.6%
under_2.5	54.4%

team_away

over_1.5	71.7%	under_1.5	28.3%	over_2.5	46.2%
under_2.5	53.8%

most

home	40.5%	draw	18.3%	away	41.2%

handicap

home_-1.5	24.2%	away_+1.5	75.8%	home_-0.5	40.5%
away_+0.5	59.5%	home_+0.5	58.8%	away_-0.5	41.2%
home_+1.5	75.2%	away_-1.5	24.8%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	89.3%	under_20.5	10.7%	over_22.5	80.4%
under_22.5	19.6%	over_24.5	68.3%	under_24.5	31.7%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	84.0%	under_9.5	16.0%	over_11.5	66.9%
under_11.5	33.1%	over_13.5	46.5%	under_13.5	53.5%

team_away

over_9.5	87.2%	under_9.5	12.9%	over_11.5	71.9%
under_11.5	28.1%	over_13.5	52.4%	under_13.5	47.6%

most

home	42.3%	draw	7.2%	away	50.5%

handicap

home_-3.5	23.0%	away_+3.5	77.0%	home_-0.5	42.3%
away_+0.5	57.7%	home_+2.5	63.6%	away_-2.5	36.4%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	21.0%	no	79.0%

home

yes	15.2%	no	84.8%

away

yes	6.8%	no	93.2%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Gaziantep predictions · Fenerbahce predictions · Süper Lig

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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