Cambuur vs Nijmegen prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

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Cambuur vs Nijmegen: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

Eredivisie
Cambuur

LLLLD

Sat, 12 Sep 202620:00UK
Nijmegen

LWWLD

Model’s top convictions

87%

Over 1.5 goals

78%

Draw or Nijmegen

68%

Over 2.5 goals

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.18).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
NijmegenWin probability
56.7%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals86.8%High probabilityPays @ 1.15
Draw or Nijmegen77.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.28
Over 2.5 goals67.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.47

Model read

▾

On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Nijmegen heavy favourites at 57% when Cambuur meet Nijmegen in the Eredivisie on 12 September 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Nijmegen higher (63%) than our model does. • The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 68% with both teams to score at 65%. • Form guide over the last six: Cambuur W1 D1 L4, Nijmegen W3 D1 L2. • The recent series reads 1 wins for Cambuur, 1 draws and 3 for Nijmegen over 5 games, 2.4 goals on average. Cambuur are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.18)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners44.1%@ 2.27
Cambuur or draw43.3%@ 2.31
Over 11.5 corners35.2%@ 2.84
Medium risk

Over 9.5 corners53.8%@ 1.86
Random finds

1-2 correct score9.5%@ 10.55
1-1 correct score9.1%@ 10.95
0-2 correct score7.2%@ 13.89

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Cambuur

22.1%+3.7%

Draw

21.2%+2.8%

Nijmegen

56.7%-6.5%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.18)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.586.8%

High probability

Over 2.567.9%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes65.3%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.563.7%

Strong chance

Over 9.553.8%

Good chance

Over 10.544.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.535.2%

Toss-up

Most cornersCambuur49.1%Nijmegen40.7%

Shots markets

Over 22.572.7%

Strong chance

Over 24.562.4%

Strong chance

Over 26.551.4%

Good chance

Over 28.540.5%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

Cambuur13.3 taken15.5 faced
Nijmegen19.3 taken9.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.586.8%2.567.9%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.567.9%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.18).

Form & head-to-head

CambuurLLLLD
NijmegenLWWLD

Last 5 meetings: Cambuur 1 · 1 draws · Nijmegen 3 · 2.4 goals/game.

2023-02-11Nijmegen 0-0 Cambuur
2022-11-04Cambuur 0-1 Nijmegen
2022-04-03Cambuur 1-2 Nijmegen
2021-11-26Nijmegen 2-3 Cambuur
2016-04-17Nijmegen 2-1 Cambuur

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

CambuurNijmegen
League position#18 of 18#9 of 18
Record W-D-L0-1-42-1-2
Current streakD1D1
Points per game0.201.40
Record, home vs away0-0-32-0-0
PPG, home vs away0.00·
Goals scored per game1.202.20
Goals conceded per game3.601.80
Scored, home vs away1.00·
Conceded, home vs away4.33·
1st half goals per game0.200.80
2nd half goals per game1.001.40
Corners won per game3.85.0
Cards per game1.41.4
Fouls per game11.010.4
Red cards this season00
Shots per game11.815.8
Shots faced per game16.610.2
Shots on target per game3.84.6
Over 2.5 rate

100.0%100.0%

BTTS rate

80.0%100.0%

Clean sheets

0.0%0.0%

Rates this season:CambuurNijmegen

League averages this season: 4.02 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 84% · BTTS in 77%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Cambuur win5.004.52
Draw5.004.72
Nijmegen win1.531.76
Over 2.5 goals1.361.47
Under 2.5 goals3.103.12

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Cambuur win4.53
Draw4.71
Nijmegen win1.76
Both teams to score1.53

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.15
Over 2.5 goals1.47
Over 3.5 goals2.16
Over 4.5 goals3.65
Cambuur most4.53
Nijmegen most1.76

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.28
Over 8.5 corners1.48
Over 9.5 corners1.77
Over 10.5 corners2.23
Cambuur most2.03
Nijmegen most2.45

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.70
Over 3.5 cards2.72
Over 4.5 cards5.07
Over 5.5 cards10.82
Cambuur most3.17
Nijmegen most2.23

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.17
Over 7.5 SoT1.29
Over 8.5 SoT1.47
Over 9.5 SoT1.73
Cambuur most2.69
Nijmegen most1.91

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.38
Over 24.5 shots1.60
Over 26.5 shots1.95
Over 28.5 shots2.47
Cambuur most1.94
Nijmegen most2.33

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.60
Over 22.5 fouls2.12
Over 24.5 fouls3.03
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 72.7% Over 24.5 62.4% Over 26.5 51.4% Over 28.5 40.5%
Most: Cambuur 51.5% Most: Nijmegen 43.0%
Cambuur Over 13.2 50.6% Nijmegen Over 13.2 44.5%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 85.8% Over 7.5 77.8% Over 8.5 68.2% Over 9.5 57.8%
Most: Cambuur 37.2% Most: Nijmegen 52.2%
Cambuur Over 4.2 51.6% Nijmegen Over 4.2 62.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 58.9% Over 3.5 36.7% Over 4.5 19.7%
Most: Cambuur 31.5% Most: Nijmegen 44.8%
Cambuur Over 1.8 39.9% Nijmegen Over 1.8 50.1%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Cambuur clean sheet 11.3%
Nijmegen clean sheet 26.2%
Cambuur win to nil 7.8%
Nijmegen win to nil 22.7%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 22.1% draw 21.2% away 56.7%
double_chance
1X 43.3% 12 78.8% X2 77.9%
dnb
home 28.0% away 72.0%
btts
yes 65.4% no 34.7%
clean_sheet
home 11.3% away 26.8%
win_to_nil
home 7.8% away 23.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1 12.8% home_by_2 6.2% home_by_3plus 3.1%
away_by_1 21.4% away_by_2 17.1% away_by_3plus 18.1%
correct_score
0-0 3.5% 0-1 6.2% 0-2 7.2%
0-3 5.2% 0-4 2.9% 0-5 1.3%
1-0 3.6% 1-1 9.1% 1-2 9.5%
1-3 6.9% 1-4 3.8% 1-5 1.6%
2-0 2.6% 2-1 5.7% 2-2 6.2%
2-3 4.5% 2-4 2.5% 2-5 1.1%
3-0 1.2% 3-1 2.5% 3-2 2.7%
3-3 2.0% 3-4 1.1% 3-5 0.5%
4-0 0.4% 4-1 0.8% 4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.7% 4-4 0.4% 4-5 0.2%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 2.6%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 200.0% p 9.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 96.5% under_0.5 3.5% over_1.5 86.8%
under_1.5 13.2% over_2.5 67.9% under_2.5 32.1%
over_3.5 46.3% under_3.5 53.7% over_4.5 27.4%
under_4.5 72.6% over_5.5 14.2% under_5.5 85.8%
odd_even
odd 49.1% even 50.9%
team_home
over_0.5 73.2% under_0.5 26.8% over_1.5 37.9%
under_1.5 62.1% over_2.5 14.7% under_2.5 85.3%
team_away
over_0.5 88.7% under_0.5 11.3% over_1.5 64.1%
under_1.5 35.9% over_2.5 37.2% under_2.5 62.8%
most
home 22.1% draw 21.2% away 56.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 3.1% away_+2.5 96.9% home_-1.5 9.3%
away_+1.5 90.7% home_-0.5 22.1% away_+0.5 77.9%
home_+0.5 43.3% away_-0.5 56.7% home_+1.5 64.8%
away_-1.5 35.3% home_+2.5 81.9% away_-2.5 18.1%
total_exact
exact_0 3.5% exact_1 9.7% exact_2 19.0%
exact_3 21.6% exact_4 18.9% exact_5 13.2%
exact_6 7.7% exact_7plus 6.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 16.3% draw 28.8% away 54.8%
total
over_0.5 85.0% under_0.5 15.0% over_1.5 56.5%
under_1.5 43.5% over_2.5 29.5% under_2.5 70.5%
btts
yes 32.2% no 67.8%
total_exact
exact_0 15.0% exact_1 28.5% exact_2 27.0%
exact_3 17.1% exact_4plus 12.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 22.7% draw 27.5% away 49.8%
total
over_0.5 89.2% under_0.5 10.8% over_1.5 65.2%
under_1.5 34.8% over_2.5 38.5% under_2.5 61.5%
btts
yes 42.6% no 57.4%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 9.3% H/D 3.7% H/A 3.3%
D/H 6.6% D/D 7.9% D/A 14.3%
A/H 2.4% A/D 5.4% A/A 47.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 78.1% under_7.5 21.9% over_8.5 67.8%
under_8.5 32.2% over_9.5 56.4% under_9.5 43.6%
over_10.5 44.9% under_10.5 55.1% over_11.5 34.2%
under_11.5 65.9% over_12.5 24.9% under_12.5 75.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.0% under_3.5 27.0% over_4.5 58.4%
under_4.5 41.6% over_5.5 43.8% under_5.5 56.2%
team_away
over_3.5 67.6% under_3.5 32.4% over_4.5 51.9%
under_4.5 48.1% over_5.5 37.3% under_5.5 62.7%
most
home 49.3% draw 9.9% away 40.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.4% away_+3.5 77.6% home_-1.5 39.5%
away_+1.5 60.5% home_-0.5 49.3% away_+0.5 50.7%
home_+0.5 59.2% away_-0.5 40.8% home_+1.5 68.5%
away_-1.5 31.5% home_+3.5 83.6% away_-3.5 16.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 72.7% under_22.5 27.4% over_24.5 62.4%
under_24.5 37.6% over_26.5 51.4% under_26.5 48.6%
over_28.5 40.5% under_28.5 59.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 72.9% under_10.5 27.2% over_12.5 58.2%
under_12.5 41.8% over_14.5 43.3% under_14.5 56.7%
team_away
over_10.5 67.7% under_10.5 32.3% over_12.5 52.2%
under_12.5 47.8% over_14.5 37.3% under_14.5 62.7%
most
home 51.5% draw 5.6% away 43.0%
handicap
home_-4.5 30.0% away_+4.5 70.0% home_-2.5 40.4%
away_+2.5 59.6% home_-0.5 51.5% away_+0.5 48.5%
home_+0.5 57.0% away_-0.5 43.0% home_+2.5 67.6%
away_-2.5 32.4% home_+4.5 77.0% away_-4.5 23.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 85.8% under_6.5 14.2% over_7.5 77.8%
under_7.5 22.2% over_8.5 68.2% under_8.5 31.8%
over_9.5 57.8% under_9.5 42.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 67.6% under_3.5 32.4% over_4.5 51.6%
under_4.5 48.4% over_5.5 36.7% under_5.5 63.3%
team_away
over_3.5 76.2% under_3.5 23.8% over_4.5 62.1%
under_4.5 37.9% over_5.5 47.6% under_5.5 52.4%
most
home 37.2% draw 10.6% away 52.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 19.3% away_+2.5 80.7% home_-0.5 37.2%
away_+0.5 62.8% home_+0.5 47.8% away_-0.5 52.2%
home_+2.5 68.5% away_-2.5 31.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 58.9% under_2.5 41.1% over_3.5 36.7%
under_3.5 63.3% over_4.5 19.7% under_4.5 80.3%
over_5.5 9.2% under_5.5 90.8%
odd_even
odd 49.9% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 39.9% under_1.5 60.1% over_2.5 16.2%
under_2.5 83.8%
team_away
over_1.5 50.1% under_1.5 49.9% over_2.5 24.0%
under_2.5 76.0%
most
home 31.5% draw 23.6% away 44.9%
handicap
home_-1.5 14.2% away_+1.5 85.8% home_-0.5 31.5%
away_+0.5 68.5% home_+0.5 55.2% away_-0.5 44.9%
home_+1.5 76.4% away_-1.5 23.6%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 62.3% under_20.5 37.7% over_22.5 47.2%
under_22.5 52.8% over_24.5 33.0% under_24.5 67.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 63.5% under_9.5 36.5% over_11.5 41.9%
under_11.5 58.1% over_13.5 23.7% under_13.5 76.3%
team_away
over_9.5 67.4% under_9.5 32.6% over_11.5 46.2%
under_11.5 53.8% over_13.5 27.3% under_13.5 72.7%
most
home 43.2% draw 7.6% away 49.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.8% away_+3.5 77.2% home_-0.5 43.2%
away_+0.5 56.8% home_+2.5 65.7% away_-2.5 34.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 13.0% no 87.0%
home
yes 2.4% no 97.6%
away
yes 10.9% no 89.1%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Cambuur predictions · Nijmegen predictions · Eredivisie

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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EredivisieCambuurNijmegenTrack record