Shots

Over 22.5	63.8%	Over 24.5	52.0%	Over 26.5	40.2%	Over 28.5	29.4%
Most: Inter	68.5%	Most: Udinese	26.3%
Inter Over 13.2	54.7%	Udinese Over 13.2	24.5%

Shots on target

Over 6.5	71.8%	Over 7.5	61.0%	Over 8.5	50.0%	Over 9.5	39.5%
Most: Inter	59.1%	Most: Udinese	30.1%
Inter Over 4.2	53.5%	Udinese Over 4.2	32.4%

Cards

Over 2.5	66.9%	Over 3.5	45.8%	Over 4.5	27.5%
Most: Inter	30.2%	Most: Udinese	48.3%
Inter Over 1.8	44.3%	Udinese Over 1.8	57.8%

Inter: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Lautaro Martínez	3.84	1.39	0.57	70.3%	84.8%	39.2%
Francesco Pio Esposito	3.51	1.39	0.41	50.7%	53.4%	18.8%
Marcus Thuram	3.01	1.11	0.53	56.6%	66.1%	32.9%
Hakan Calhanoglu	2.41	0.8	0.38	46.4%	56.1%	25.7%
Federico Dimarco	2.19	0.75	0.2	45.3%	52.6%	14.9%

Udinese: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Keinan Davis	2.25	1.04	0.33	51.8%	46.8%	20.7%
Nicolo Zaniolo	2.75	0.89	0.21	42.2%	50.5%	12.1%
Idrissa Gueye	3.97	0.76	0.15	18.7%	29.5%	4.0%
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp	1.37	0.56	0.19	34.0%	27.0%	13.1%
Jakub Piotrowski	1.94	0.49	0.1	24.4%	30.4%	5.6%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Inter clean sheet	39.4%
Udinese clean sheet	11.9%
Inter win to nil	34.1%
Udinese win to nil	6.6%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	64.9%	draw	20.5%	away	14.5%

double_chance

1X	85.5%	12	79.5%	X2	35.1%

dnb

home	81.7%	away	18.3%

btts

yes	53.1%	no	46.9%

clean_sheet

home	40.2%	away	11.9%

win_to_nil

home	35.0%	away	6.6%

winning_margin

home_by_1	23.3%	home_by_2	19.8%	home_by_3plus	21.8%
away_by_1	9.7%	away_by_2	3.6%	away_by_3plus	1.2%

correct_score

0-0	5.3%	0-1	3.9%	0-2	2.0%
0-3	0.6%	0-4	0.1%	0-5	0.0%
1-0	9.7%	1-1	9.7%	1-2	4.2%
1-3	1.3%	1-4	0.3%	1-5	0.1%
2-0	10.8%	2-1	9.9%	2-2	4.5%
2-3	1.4%	2-4	0.3%	2-5	0.1%
3-0	7.7%	3-1	7.0%	3-2	3.2%
3-3	1.0%	3-4	0.2%	3-5	0.0%
4-0	4.1%	4-1	3.7%	4-2	1.7%
4-3	0.5%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	1.8%	5-1	1.6%	5-2	0.7%
5-3	0.2%	5-4	0.1%	5-5	0.0%
other	2.2%

likeliest_score

h	200.0%	a	0.0%	p	10.8%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	94.8%	under_0.5	5.3%	over_1.5	81.2%
under_1.5	18.9%	over_2.5	58.6%	under_2.5	41.4%
over_3.5	36.3%	under_3.5	63.7%	over_4.5	19.2%
under_4.5	80.8%	over_5.5	8.9%	under_5.5	91.1%

odd_even

odd	49.0%	even	51.0%

team_home

over_0.5	88.1%	under_0.5	11.9%	over_1.5	62.8%
under_1.5	37.2%	over_2.5	35.9%	under_2.5	64.1%

team_away

over_0.5	59.8%	under_0.5	40.2%	over_1.5	23.2%
under_1.5	76.8%	over_2.5	6.5%	under_2.5	93.5%

most

home	64.9%	draw	20.5%	away	14.5%

handicap

home_-2.5	21.8%	away_+2.5	78.2%	home_-1.5	41.6%
away_+1.5	58.4%	home_-0.5	64.9%	away_+0.5	35.1%
home_+0.5	85.5%	away_-0.5	14.5%	home_+1.5	95.2%
away_-1.5	4.8%	home_+2.5	98.8%	away_-2.5	1.2%

total_exact

exact_0	5.3%	exact_1	13.6%	exact_2	22.5%
exact_3	22.4%	exact_4	17.0%	exact_5	10.4%
exact_6	5.3%	exact_7plus	3.6%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	40.5%	draw	40.2%	away	19.3%

total

over_0.5	71.1%	under_0.5	28.9%	over_1.5	35.2%
under_1.5	64.8%	over_2.5	13.0%	under_2.5	87.1%

btts

yes	19.8%	no	80.2%

total_exact

exact_0	28.9%	exact_1	35.9%	exact_2	22.3%
exact_3	9.2%	exact_4plus	3.7%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	61.2%	draw	26.4%	away	12.5%

total

over_0.5	85.9%	under_0.5	14.1%	over_1.5	58.3%
under_1.5	41.7%	over_2.5	31.3%	under_2.5	68.8%

btts

yes	30.1%	no	69.9%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	36.9%	H/D	2.9%	H/A	0.8%
D/H	24.6%	D/D	10.6%	D/A	5.0%
A/H	5.4%	A/D	5.2%	A/A	8.7%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	65.7%	under_7.5	34.3%	over_8.5	54.8%
under_8.5	45.2%	over_9.5	44.0%	under_9.5	56.0%
over_10.5	34.2%	under_10.5	65.9%	over_11.5	25.6%
under_11.5	74.4%	over_12.5	18.6%	under_12.5	81.4%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	71.1%	under_3.5	28.9%	over_4.5	57.4%
under_4.5	42.6%	over_5.5	44.1%	under_5.5	55.9%

team_away

over_3.5	49.7%	under_3.5	50.3%	over_4.5	34.3%
under_4.5	65.7%	over_5.5	22.2%	under_5.5	77.8%

most

home	60.3%	draw	9.6%	away	30.1%

handicap

home_-3.5	30.8%	away_+3.5	69.2%	home_-1.5	50.1%
away_+1.5	49.9%	home_-0.5	60.3%	away_+0.5	39.7%
home_+0.5	69.9%	away_-0.5	30.1%	home_+1.5	78.3%
away_-1.5	21.7%	home_+3.5	90.3%	away_-3.5	9.8%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	63.8%	under_22.5	36.2%	over_24.5	51.9%
under_24.5	48.1%	over_26.5	40.2%	under_26.5	59.8%
over_28.5	29.4%	under_28.5	70.6%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	76.9%	under_10.5	23.1%	over_12.5	62.4%
under_12.5	37.6%	over_14.5	47.1%	under_14.5	52.9%

team_away

over_10.5	48.5%	under_10.5	51.5%	over_12.5	31.5%
under_12.5	68.5%	over_14.5	18.6%	under_14.5	81.4%

most

home	68.5%	draw	5.2%	away	26.3%

handicap

home_-4.5	44.9%	away_+4.5	55.1%	home_-2.5	57.0%
away_+2.5	43.0%	home_-0.5	68.5%	away_+0.5	31.5%
home_+0.5	73.7%	away_-0.5	26.3%	home_+2.5	82.6%
away_-2.5	17.4%	home_+4.5	89.3%	away_-4.5	10.7%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	71.8%	under_6.5	28.2%	over_7.5	61.0%
under_7.5	39.0%	over_8.5	50.0%	under_8.5	50.0%
over_9.5	39.5%	under_9.5	60.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	68.2%	under_3.5	31.8%	over_4.5	53.6%
under_4.5	46.5%	over_5.5	39.8%	under_5.5	60.2%

team_away

over_3.5	48.2%	under_3.5	51.8%	over_4.5	32.4%
under_4.5	67.6%	over_5.5	20.4%	under_5.5	79.6%

most

home	59.1%	draw	10.8%	away	30.1%

handicap

home_-2.5	36.8%	away_+2.5	63.2%	home_-0.5	59.1%
away_+0.5	40.9%	home_+0.5	69.9%	away_-0.5	30.1%
home_+2.5	86.4%	away_-2.5	13.7%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	66.9%	under_2.5	33.1%	over_3.5	45.8%
under_3.5	54.2%	over_4.5	27.5%	under_4.5	72.5%
over_5.5	14.6%	under_5.5	85.4%

odd_even

odd	49.9%	even	50.1%

team_home

over_1.5	44.3%	under_1.5	55.7%	over_2.5	19.8%
under_2.5	80.2%

team_away

over_1.5	57.8%	under_1.5	42.2%	over_2.5	31.6%
under_2.5	68.4%

most

home	30.2%	draw	21.5%	away	48.3%

handicap

home_-1.5	14.3%	away_+1.5	85.7%	home_-0.5	30.2%
away_+0.5	69.8%	home_+0.5	51.7%	away_-0.5	48.3%
home_+1.5	72.1%	away_-1.5	27.9%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	67.5%	under_20.5	32.5%	over_22.5	54.0%
under_22.5	46.0%	over_24.5	40.5%	under_24.5	59.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	62.9%	under_9.5	37.1%	over_11.5	42.9%
under_11.5	57.2%	over_13.5	25.7%	under_13.5	74.3%

team_away

over_9.5	73.1%	under_9.5	26.9%	over_11.5	54.7%
under_11.5	45.3%	over_13.5	36.5%	under_13.5	63.5%

most

home	38.4%	draw	6.8%	away	54.9%

handicap

home_-3.5	20.7%	away_+3.5	79.3%	home_-0.5	38.4%
away_+0.5	61.7%	home_+2.5	59.0%	away_-2.5	41.1%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	10.5%	no	89.5%

home

yes	1.2%	no	98.8%

away

yes	9.5%	no	90.5%