Getafe vs La Coruna prediction & probabilities (2026-09-13)

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Getafe vs La Coruna: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 13 Sep 2026

La Liga
Getafe

WLWLD

Sun, 13 Sep 202617:30UK32°C · Clear
La Coruna

LDDWW

Model’s top convictions

78%

Getafe or draw

65%

Under 2.5 goals

63%

Over 1.5 goals

Fairly pricedTrust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
GetafeWin probability
49.2%
Top 3 convictions

Getafe or draw78.2%High probabilityPays @ 1.28
Under 2.5 goals64.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.55
Over 1.5 goals62.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.59

Model read

▾

Our engine prices Getafe at 49% for 13 September 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Notably, the model is warmer on Getafe than the market (40%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. 2) The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 35% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 41%. 3) The forecast adds a wrinkle: 32 degrees of heat. Form guide over the last six: Getafe W2 D1 L3, La Coruna W2 D2 L2. For shots markets, Enes Ünal is the obvious watch at 1.3 on target per 90 in recent data. The recent series reads 3 wins for Getafe, 1 draws and 1 for La Coruna over 5 games, 2.2 goals on average. La Coruna are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Verdict: no bet. Trust gate: no_trust (segment historically unreliable).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners45.1%@ 2.22
Over 2.5 goals35.3%@ 2.83
Over 10.5 corners34.9%@ 2.87
Medium risk

Not both teams to score59.2%@ 1.69
Over 8.5 corners56.1%@ 1.78
Draw or La Coruna50.8%@ 1.97
Random finds

1-0 correct score15.3%@ 6.55
1-1 correct score13.3%@ 7.51
0-0 correct score12.8%@ 7.81

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Getafe

49.2%+9.5%

Draw

29.0%-3.6%

La Coruna

21.8%-5.8%

ModelMarket

trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.562.9%

Strong chance

Over 2.535.3%

Toss-up

BTTS · Yes40.8%

Toss-up

Corners markets

Over 8.556.1%

Good chance

Over 9.545.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.534.9%

Toss-up

Over 11.526.1%

Low chance

Most cornersGetafe55.9%La Coruna33.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.554.4%

Good chance

Over 24.541.5%

Toss-up

Over 26.529.9%

Low chance

Over 28.520.2%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Getafe8.2 taken11.8 faced
La Coruna10.2 taken14.3 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Getafe (4 games)

4.5 / 5.2

La Coruna (3 games)

4.0 / 4.3

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.562.9%2.535.3%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.562.9%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).

Form & head-to-head

GetafeWLWLD
La CorunaLDDWW

Last 5 meetings: Getafe 3 · 1 draws · La Coruna 1 · 2.2 goals/game.

2018-02-28Getafe 3-0 La Coruna
2017-09-30La Coruna 2-1 Getafe
2016-05-01La Coruna 0-2 Getafe
2015-12-30Getafe 0-0 La Coruna
2015-04-05Getafe 2-1 La Coruna

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

GetafeLa Coruna
League position#15 of 20#5 of 20
Record W-D-L1-1-22-2-0
Current streakD1W2
Record, home vs away1-1-01-1-0
Red cards this season21

League averages this season: 3.00 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 56% · BTTS in 54%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Enes ÜnalGetafe · key player
To score8.8%

@ 11.36

1+ on target22.6%

@ 4.42

2+ shots23.0%

@ 4.35

Shots/90 4.61SoT/90 1.3Goals/90 0.47
Pierre-Emerick AubameyangLa Coruna · key player
To score35.1%

@ 2.85

1+ on target70.8%

@ 1.41

2+ shots63.8%

@ 1.57

Shots/90 2.71SoT/90 1.54Goals/90 0.54
Martín SatrianoGetafe · in form
To score21.1%

@ 4.74

1+ on target43.8%

@ 2.28

2+ shots49.3%

@ 2.03

Shots/90 2.1SoT/90 0.73Goals/90 0.3
Adama TraoréLa Coruna · in form
To score1.8%

@ 55.56

1+ on target16.9%

@ 5.92

2+ shots14.3%

@ 6.99

Shots/90 1.86SoT/90 0.52Goals/90 0.05
Borja MayoralGetafe · in form
To score19.3%

@ 5.18

1+ on target31.5%

@ 3.17

2+ shots20.3%

@ 4.93

Shots/90 1.47SoT/90 0.67Goals/90 0.38
GiménezLa Coruna · in form
To score0.0%

@ ·

1+ on target8.9%

@ 11.24

2+ shots5.9%

@ 16.95

Shots/90 0.5SoT/90 0.12Goals/90 0

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Getafe win2.402.03
Draw2.903.45
La Coruna win3.404.58
Over 2.5 goals3.202.83
Under 2.5 goals1.361.55

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Getafe win2.08
Draw3.35
La Coruna win4.51
Both teams to score2.45

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.15
Over 1.5 goals1.59
Over 2.5 goals2.83
Over 3.5 goals6.12
Getafe most2.08
La Coruna most4.51

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.42
Over 8.5 corners1.72
Over 9.5 corners2.18
Over 10.5 corners2.92
Getafe most1.79
La Coruna most3.01

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.16
Over 3.5 cards1.40
Over 4.5 cards1.86
Over 5.5 cards2.72
Getafe most2.71
La Coruna most2.22

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.55
Over 7.5 SoT1.96
Over 8.5 SoT2.64
Over 9.5 SoT3.77
Getafe most1.98
La Coruna most2.79

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.84
Over 24.5 shots2.41
Over 26.5 shots3.35
Over 28.5 shots4.96
Getafe most1.62
La Coruna most3.13

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.16
Over 22.5 fouls1.31
Over 24.5 fouls1.55
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 54.4% Over 24.5 41.5% Over 26.5 29.9% Over 28.5 20.2%
Most: Getafe 61.9% Most: La Coruna 32.0%
Getafe Over 13.2 42.3% La Coruna Over 13.2 22.4%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 64.5% Over 7.5 50.9% Over 8.5 37.9% Over 9.5 26.6%
Most: Getafe 50.6% Most: La Coruna 35.8%
Getafe Over 4.2 40.2% La Coruna Over 4.2 30.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 85.9% Over 3.5 71.3% Over 4.5 53.7%
Most: Getafe 36.9% Most: La Coruna 45.0%
Getafe Over 1.8 66.8% La Coruna Over 1.8 71.7%

Getafe: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Enes Ünal 4.61 1.3 0.47 22.6% 23.0% 8.8%
Martín Satriano 2.1 0.73 0.3 43.8% 49.3% 21.1%
Borja Mayoral 1.47 0.67 0.38 31.5% 20.3% 19.3%
Ramón Terrats 1.59 0.43 0.17 20.4% 20.6% 8.6%
Mario Martín 1.21 0.43 0.04 25.6% 20.2% 2.7%

La Coruna: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 2.71 1.54 0.54 70.8% 63.8% 35.1%
Adama Traoré 1.86 0.52 0.05 16.9% 14.3% 1.8%
Giménez 0.5 0.12 0 8.9% 5.9% 0.0%
Adrià Alti 0.36 0.1 0 7.7% 3.5% 0.0%
Marc Casadó 0.8 0.04 0.04 2.3% 8.1% 2.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Getafe clean sheet 44.9%
La Coruna clean sheet 27.0%
Getafe win to nil 32.1%
La Coruna win to nil 14.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 48.0% draw 29.9% away 22.2%
double_chance
1X 77.8% 12 70.1% X2 52.0%
dnb
home 68.4% away 31.6%
btts
yes 40.8% no 59.2%
clean_sheet
home 45.0% away 27.0%
win_to_nil
home 32.2% away 14.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1 25.2% home_by_2 14.5% home_by_3plus 8.3%
away_by_1 15.1% away_by_2 5.4% away_by_3plus 1.6%
correct_score
0-0 12.8% 0-1 9.0% 0-2 3.9%
0-3 1.0% 0-4 0.2% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 15.3% 1-1 13.3% 1-2 5.1%
1-3 1.4% 1-4 0.3% 1-5 0.0%
2-0 10.4% 2-1 8.3% 2-2 3.3%
2-3 0.9% 2-4 0.2% 2-5 0.0%
3-0 4.5% 3-1 3.6% 3-2 1.5%
3-3 0.4% 3-4 0.1% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 1.5% 4-1 1.2% 4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.1% 4-4 0.0% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.3%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 0.0% p 15.3%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 87.2% under_0.5 12.8% over_1.5 62.9%
under_1.5 37.1% over_2.5 35.3% under_2.5 64.7%
over_3.5 16.4% under_3.5 83.7% over_4.5 6.3%
under_4.5 93.7% over_5.5 2.1% under_5.5 97.9%
odd_even
odd 48.0% even 52.0%
team_home
over_0.5 73.0% under_0.5 27.0% over_1.5 37.7%
under_1.5 62.3% over_2.5 14.5% under_2.5 85.5%
team_away
over_0.5 55.0% under_0.5 45.0% over_1.5 19.1%
under_1.5 80.9% over_2.5 4.8% under_2.5 95.2%
most
home 48.0% draw 29.9% away 22.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 8.3% away_+2.5 91.7% home_-1.5 22.8%
away_+1.5 77.2% home_-0.5 48.0% away_+0.5 52.0%
home_+0.5 77.8% away_-0.5 22.2% home_+1.5 92.9%
away_-1.5 7.1% home_+2.5 98.4% away_-2.5 1.6%
total_exact
exact_0 12.8% exact_1 24.3% exact_2 27.6%
exact_3 19.0% exact_4 10.0% exact_5 4.2%
exact_6 1.5% exact_7plus 0.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 28.5% draw 45.0% away 26.5%
total
over_0.5 65.5% under_0.5 34.6% over_1.5 28.7%
under_1.5 71.3% over_2.5 9.2% under_2.5 90.8%
btts
yes 17.0% no 83.0%
total_exact
exact_0 34.6% exact_1 36.7% exact_2 19.5%
exact_3 6.9% exact_4plus 2.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 25.0% draw 45.3% away 29.8%
total
over_0.5 65.0% under_0.5 35.0% over_1.5 28.3%
under_1.5 71.7% over_2.5 9.0% under_2.5 91.0%
btts
yes 16.6% no 83.4%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 21.6% H/D 5.2% H/A 1.7%
D/H 11.3% D/D 20.4% D/A 13.4%
A/H 1.2% A/D 4.3% A/A 21.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 70.3% under_7.5 29.7% over_8.5 58.2%
under_8.5 41.8% over_9.5 45.8% under_9.5 54.2%
over_10.5 34.2% under_10.5 65.8% over_11.5 24.3%
under_11.5 75.7% over_12.5 16.4% under_12.5 83.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.8% under_3.5 27.2% over_4.5 57.2%
under_4.5 42.8% over_5.5 41.8% under_5.5 58.2%
team_away
over_3.5 57.3% under_3.5 42.7% over_4.5 39.8%
under_4.5 60.2% over_5.5 25.3% under_5.5 74.7%
most
home 56.0% draw 10.8% away 33.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.5% away_+3.5 75.5% home_-1.5 44.7%
away_+1.5 55.3% home_-0.5 56.0% away_+0.5 44.0%
home_+0.5 66.8% away_-0.5 33.2% home_+1.5 76.4%
away_-1.5 23.6% home_+3.5 90.0% away_-3.5 10.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 54.4% under_22.5 45.6% over_24.5 41.5%
under_24.5 58.5% over_26.5 29.9% under_26.5 70.1%
over_28.5 20.2% under_28.5 79.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 68.1% under_10.5 31.9% over_12.5 50.8%
under_12.5 49.2% over_14.5 34.4% under_14.5 65.6%
team_away
over_10.5 47.3% under_10.5 52.7% over_12.5 29.5%
under_12.5 70.5% over_14.5 16.5% under_14.5 83.5%
most
home 61.9% draw 6.2% away 32.0%
handicap
home_-4.5 35.9% away_+4.5 64.1% home_-2.5 48.8%
away_+2.5 51.2% home_-0.5 61.9% away_+0.5 38.1%
home_+0.5 68.0% away_-0.5 32.0% home_+2.5 78.8%
away_-2.5 21.2% home_+4.5 87.1% away_-4.5 12.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 64.5% under_6.5 35.5% over_7.5 50.9%
under_7.5 49.1% over_8.5 37.9% under_8.5 62.1%
over_9.5 26.6% under_9.5 73.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 58.5% under_3.5 41.5% over_4.5 40.2%
under_4.5 59.8% over_5.5 25.1% under_5.5 74.9%
team_away
over_3.5 47.9% under_3.5 52.1% over_4.5 30.0%
under_4.5 70.1% over_5.5 16.8% under_5.5 83.2%
most
home 50.6% draw 13.6% away 35.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 25.0% away_+2.5 75.0% home_-0.5 50.6%
away_+0.5 49.4% home_+0.5 64.2% away_-0.5 35.8%
home_+2.5 85.4% away_-2.5 14.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 85.9% under_2.5 14.1% over_3.5 71.3%
under_3.5 28.7% over_4.5 53.7% under_4.5 46.3%
over_5.5 36.7% under_5.5 63.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 66.8% under_1.5 33.2% over_2.5 41.0%
under_2.5 59.0%
team_away
over_1.5 71.7% under_1.5 28.3% over_2.5 46.9%
under_2.5 53.1%
most
home 37.0% draw 18.1% away 45.0%
handicap
home_-1.5 21.5% away_+1.5 78.5% home_-0.5 37.0%
away_+0.5 63.1% home_+0.5 55.1% away_-0.5 45.0%
home_+1.5 72.0% away_-1.5 28.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 85.9% under_20.5 14.1% over_22.5 76.3%
under_22.5 23.7% over_24.5 64.4% under_24.5 35.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 80.9% under_9.5 19.1% over_11.5 64.1%
under_11.5 35.9% over_13.5 45.4% under_13.5 54.7%
team_away
over_9.5 83.4% under_9.5 16.6% over_11.5 67.7%
under_11.5 32.3% over_13.5 49.4% under_13.5 50.6%
most
home 43.8% draw 6.7% away 49.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.6% away_+3.5 74.4% home_-0.5 43.8%
away_+0.5 56.2% home_+2.5 63.6% away_-2.5 36.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 26.0% no 74.0%
home
yes 13.4% no 86.6%
away
yes 14.5% no 85.5%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Getafe predictions · La Coruna predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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