Elversberg vs Bayern Munich prediction & probabilities (2026-09-13)

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Elversberg vs Bayern Munich: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

Bundesliga
Elversberg

WW

Sun, 13 Sep 202616:30UK17°C · Rain
Bayern Munich

DWWWD

Model’s top convictions

92%

Draw or Bayern Munich

91%

Over 1.5 goals

76%

Over 2.5 goals

Fairly pricedValue_gap +0.022 <= 0.03.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Bayern MunichWin probability
79.5%
Top 3 convictions

Draw or Bayern Munich91.6%High probabilityPays @ 1.09
Over 1.5 goals91.2%High probabilityPays @ 1.10
Over 2.5 goals76.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.31

Model read

▾

Few Bundesliga fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Bayern Munich carry a 79% win probability against Elversberg on 13 September 2026. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Bayern Munich at 84%. Caution noted. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 76% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 63%. One eye on the skies, with 1.7 mm of rain around kickoff in the forecast. Form guide over the last six: Elversberg W2 D0 L0, Bayern Munich W4 D2 L0. As a promoted side, Elversberg carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.022 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners38.5%@ 2.60
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners59.7%@ 1.68
Over 9.5 corners48.8%@ 2.05
Random finds

1-2 correct score8.4%@ 11.89
1-3 correct score8.2%@ 12.25
other correct score7.7%@ 12.92

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Elversberg

8.4%+1.8%

Draw

12.1%+2.2%

Bayern Munich

79.5%-4.0%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.022 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.591.2%

High probability

Over 2.576.3%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes63.2%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.559.7%

Good chance

Over 9.548.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.538.5%

Toss-up

Over 11.529.4%

Low chance

Most cornersElversberg52.2%Bayern Munich36.9%

Shots markets

Over 22.572.4%

Strong chance

Over 24.561.2%

Strong chance

Over 26.549.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.537.6%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

Elversberg12.5 taken23.0 faced
Bayern Munich17.5 taken12.3 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Elversberg (2 games)

6.5 / 6.0

Bayern Munich (2 games)

6.5 / 11.5

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.591.2%2.576.3%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.576.3%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Value_gap +0.022 <= 0.03.

Form & head-to-head

ElversbergWW
Bayern MunichDWWWD

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

ElversbergBayern Munich
League position#4 of 18#6 of 18
Record W-D-L2-0-01-1-0
Current streakW2D1
Record, home vs away1-0-00-1-0
Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Harry KaneBayern Munich · key player
To score62.6%

@ 1.60

1+ on target84.9%

@ 1.18

2+ shots88.9%

@ 1.12

Shots/90 4.43SoT/90 2.23Goals/90 1.16
Michael OliseBayern Munich · in form
To score34.5%

@ 2.90

1+ on target72.4%

@ 1.38

2+ shots78.7%

@ 1.27

Shots/90 3.71SoT/90 1.64Goals/90 0.54
Lennart KarlBayern Munich · in form
To score16.4%

@ 6.10

1+ on target54.5%

@ 1.83

2+ shots45.5%

@ 2.20

Shots/90 2.91SoT/90 1.49Goals/90 0.34

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Elversberg win13.0011.88
Draw9.008.26
Bayern Munich win1.171.26
Over 2.5 goals1.171.31
Under 2.5 goals5.004.22

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Elversberg win9.05
Draw6.76
Bayern Munich win1.35
Both teams to score1.58

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.10
Over 2.5 goals1.31
Over 3.5 goals1.76
Over 4.5 goals2.68
Elversberg most9.05
Bayern Munich most1.35

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.36
Over 8.5 corners1.61
Over 9.5 corners2.00
Over 10.5 corners2.61
Elversberg most1.91
Bayern Munich most2.70

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.44
Over 3.5 cards2.09
Over 4.5 cards3.47
Over 5.5 cards6.58
Elversberg most2.65
Bayern Munich most2.48

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.19
Over 7.5 SoT1.34
Over 8.5 SoT1.56
Over 9.5 SoT1.89
Elversberg most2.45
Bayern Munich most2.10

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.38
Over 24.5 shots1.64
Over 26.5 shots2.03
Over 28.5 shots2.66
Elversberg most1.84
Bayern Munich most2.52

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.22
Over 22.5 fouls3.01
Over 24.5 fouls4.30
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 72.4% Over 24.5 61.2% Over 26.5 49.2% Over 28.5 37.6%
Most: Elversberg 54.3% Most: Bayern Munich 39.8%
Elversberg Over 13.2 51.1% Bayern Munich Over 13.2 40.7%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 84.0% Over 7.5 74.9% Over 8.5 64.2% Over 9.5 52.8%
Most: Elversberg 40.8% Most: Bayern Munich 47.6%
Elversberg Over 4.2 51.5% Bayern Munich Over 4.2 56.3%

Cards

Over 2.5 69.2% Over 3.5 47.9% Over 4.5 28.8%
Most: Elversberg 37.7% Most: Bayern Munich 40.3%
Elversberg Over 1.8 52.3% Bayern Munich Over 1.8 54.3%

Bayern Munich: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Harry Kane 4.43 2.23 1.16 84.9% 88.9% 62.6%
Michael Olise 3.71 1.64 0.54 72.4% 78.7% 34.5%
Lennart Karl 2.91 1.49 0.34 54.5% 45.5% 16.4%
Jamal Musiala 3.68 1.45 0.54 62.1% 70.5% 30.4%
Luis Díaz 2.97 1.21 0.48 62.2% 68.8% 32.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Elversberg clean sheet 5.4%
Bayern Munich clean sheet 30.9%
Elversberg win to nil 3.3%
Bayern Munich win to nil 28.8%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 11.1% draw 14.8% away 74.2%
double_chance
1X 25.9% 12 85.2% X2 88.9%
dnb
home 13.0% away 87.0%
btts
yes 63.2% no 36.8%
clean_sheet
home 5.5% away 33.5%
win_to_nil
home 3.4% away 31.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1 7.1% home_by_2 2.8% home_by_3plus 1.1%
away_by_1 19.3% away_by_2 19.9% away_by_3plus 35.0%
correct_score
0-0 2.1% 0-1 5.0% 0-2 7.7%
0-3 7.5% 0-4 5.5% 0-5 3.2%
1-0 1.7% 1-1 6.1% 1-2 8.4%
1-3 8.2% 1-4 6.0% 1-5 3.5%
2-0 1.1% 2-1 3.2% 2-2 4.6%
2-3 4.5% 2-4 3.3% 2-5 1.9%
3-0 0.4% 3-1 1.2% 3-2 1.7%
3-3 1.6% 3-4 1.2% 3-5 0.7%
4-0 0.1% 4-1 0.3% 4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.3% 4-5 0.2%
5-0 0.0% 5-1 0.1% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 7.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 200.0% p 8.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 97.9% under_0.5 2.1% over_1.5 91.2%
under_1.5 8.8% over_2.5 76.3% under_2.5 23.7%
over_3.5 56.9% under_3.5 43.1% over_4.5 37.4%
under_4.5 62.6% over_5.5 21.7% under_5.5 78.3%
odd_even
odd 49.4% even 50.6%
team_home
over_0.5 66.5% under_0.5 33.5% over_1.5 29.9%
under_1.5 70.1% over_2.5 9.9% under_2.5 90.1%
team_away
over_0.5 94.5% under_0.5 5.5% over_1.5 78.7%
under_1.5 21.3% over_2.5 55.7% under_2.5 44.3%
most
home 11.1% draw 14.8% away 74.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 1.1% away_+2.5 98.9% home_-1.5 3.9%
away_+1.5 96.1% home_-0.5 11.1% away_+0.5 88.9%
home_+0.5 25.9% away_-0.5 74.2% home_+1.5 45.1%
away_-1.5 54.9% home_+2.5 65.0% away_-2.5 35.0%
total_exact
exact_0 2.1% exact_1 6.7% exact_2 14.9%
exact_3 19.5% exact_4 19.5% exact_5 15.7%
exact_6 10.5% exact_7plus 11.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 27.3% draw 31.3% away 41.4%
total
over_0.5 85.2% under_0.5 14.8% over_1.5 56.9%
under_1.5 43.1% over_2.5 29.9% under_2.5 70.1%
btts
yes 37.1% no 62.9%
total_exact
exact_0 14.8% exact_1 28.3% exact_2 27.0%
exact_3 17.2% exact_4plus 12.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 17.0% draw 22.1% away 60.9%
total
over_0.5 93.5% under_0.5 6.5% over_1.5 75.8%
under_1.5 24.2% over_2.5 51.6% under_2.5 48.4%
btts
yes 49.1% no 50.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 13.3% H/D 6.1% H/A 7.9%
D/H 5.3% D/D 6.9% D/A 19.1%
A/H 1.5% A/D 3.4% A/A 36.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 73.6% under_7.5 26.4% over_8.5 62.1%
under_8.5 37.9% over_9.5 50.0% under_9.5 50.0%
over_10.5 38.3% under_10.5 61.7% over_11.5 27.9%
under_11.5 72.1% over_12.5 19.4% under_12.5 80.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.7% under_3.5 27.3% over_4.5 57.2%
under_4.5 42.8% over_5.5 41.9% under_5.5 58.2%
team_away
over_3.5 62.6% under_3.5 37.4% over_4.5 45.6%
under_4.5 54.4% over_5.5 30.6% under_5.5 69.5%
most
home 52.3% draw 10.8% away 37.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.4% away_+3.5 77.6% home_-1.5 41.4%
away_+1.5 58.6% home_-0.5 52.3% away_+0.5 47.7%
home_+0.5 63.0% away_-0.5 37.0% home_+1.5 72.8%
away_-1.5 27.2% home_+3.5 87.5% away_-3.5 12.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 72.4% under_22.5 27.6% over_24.5 61.2%
under_24.5 38.8% over_26.5 49.2% under_26.5 50.8%
over_28.5 37.6% under_28.5 62.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 75.0% under_10.5 25.1% over_12.5 59.3%
under_12.5 40.7% over_14.5 43.1% under_14.5 56.9%
team_away
over_10.5 66.3% under_10.5 33.7% over_12.5 49.0%
under_12.5 51.0% over_14.5 33.0% under_14.5 67.0%
most
home 54.3% draw 5.9% away 39.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 30.9% away_+4.5 69.2% home_-2.5 42.2%
away_+2.5 57.8% home_-0.5 54.3% away_+0.5 45.7%
home_+0.5 60.2% away_-0.5 39.8% home_+2.5 71.3%
away_-2.5 28.7% home_+4.5 80.7% away_-4.5 19.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 84.0% under_6.5 16.0% over_7.5 74.9%
under_7.5 25.1% over_8.5 64.2% under_8.5 35.8%
over_9.5 52.8% under_9.5 47.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 68.2% under_3.5 31.8% over_4.5 51.5%
under_4.5 48.5% over_5.5 36.0% under_5.5 64.0%
team_away
over_3.5 72.2% under_3.5 27.8% over_4.5 56.3%
under_4.5 43.7% over_5.5 40.8% under_5.5 59.2%
most
home 40.8% draw 11.5% away 47.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 20.9% away_+2.5 79.1% home_-0.5 40.8%
away_+0.5 59.2% home_+0.5 52.4% away_-0.5 47.6%
home_+2.5 73.8% away_-2.5 26.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 69.2% under_2.5 30.8% over_3.5 47.9%
under_3.5 52.1% over_4.5 28.8% under_4.5 71.2%
over_5.5 15.2% under_5.5 84.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 52.3% under_1.5 47.7% over_2.5 25.7%
under_2.5 74.3%
team_away
over_1.5 54.3% under_1.5 45.8% over_2.5 27.4%
under_2.5 72.6%
most
home 37.7% draw 22.0% away 40.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.4% away_+1.5 80.6% home_-0.5 37.7%
away_+0.5 62.3% home_+0.5 59.7% away_-0.5 40.3%
home_+1.5 78.6% away_-1.5 21.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 45.1% under_20.5 54.9% over_22.5 33.3%
under_22.5 66.7% over_24.5 23.3% under_24.5 76.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 50.2% under_9.5 49.8% over_11.5 33.1%
under_11.5 66.9% over_13.5 19.9% under_13.5 80.1%
team_away
over_9.5 52.2% under_9.5 47.8% over_11.5 35.0%
under_11.5 65.0% over_13.5 21.5% under_13.5 78.5%
most
home 45.3% draw 6.6% away 48.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.9% away_+3.5 73.1% home_-0.5 45.3%
away_+0.5 54.7% home_+2.5 64.8% away_-2.5 35.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 10.5% no 89.5%
home
yes 6.2% no 93.9%
away
yes 4.6% no 95.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Elversberg predictions · Bayern Munich predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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