Genoa vs Frosinone: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

Serie A

Genoa

LLLLL

Sat, 12 Sep 202614:00UK28°C · Cloudy

Frosinone

WLLWW

Model’s top convictions

71%

Genoa or draw

68%

Over 1.5 goals

59%

Under 2.5 goals

Fairly pricedValue_gap +0.027 <= 0.03.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

GenoaWin probability

42.6%

Top 3 convictions

Genoa or draw71.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.40

Over 1.5 goals68.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.47

Under 2.5 goals58.9%Good chancePays @ 1.70

Model read

▾

A measured edge to Genoa: 43% is the model's line for this Serie A meeting on 12 September 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 46%. • This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 41% with both teams to score at 47%. • The forecast adds a wrinkle: 28 degrees of heat. • Stephan El Shaarawy drives the home shot volume, 1.0 on target per 90. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Genoa, 2 draws and 1 for Frosinone at 2.4 goals per match. Frosinone are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Recent form reads W0 D1 L5 for Genoa against W3 D0 L3 for Frosinone. The engine passes on this one (value_gap +0.027 <= 0.03).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals41.1%@ 2.43

Over 9.5 corners40.0%@ 2.50

Over 10.5 corners31.3%@ 3.19

Medium risk

Draw or Frosinone57.4%@ 1.74

Not both teams to score52.7%@ 1.90

Over 8.5 corners49.8%@ 2.01

Random finds

1-1 correct score13.7%@ 7.32

1-0 correct score12.1%@ 8.28

0-0 correct score10.4%@ 9.60

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Genoa

42.6%-2.9%

Draw

28.7%+0.2%

Frosinone

28.7%+2.7%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.027 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.568.2%

Strong chance

Over 2.541.1%

Toss-up

BTTS · Yes47.3%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.549.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 9.540.0%

Toss-up

Over 10.531.3%

Toss-up

Over 11.523.8%

Low chance

Most cornersGenoa53.1%Frosinone36.3%

Shots markets

Over 22.560.7%

Strong chance

Over 24.548.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.537.1%

Toss-up

Over 28.526.8%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Genoa9.7 taken13.0 faced

Frosinone15.0 taken16.3 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Genoa (3 games)

4.0 / 6.0

Frosinone (3 games)

5.0 / 6.7

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.568.2%2.541.1%3.5·4.5·

Recommended focusOver 1.568.2%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Value_gap +0.027 <= 0.03.

Form & head-to-head

GenoaLLLLL

FrosinoneWLLWW

Last 5 meetings: Genoa 2 · 2 draws · Frosinone 1 · 2.4 goals/game.

2024-03-30Genoa 1-1 Frosinone

2023-11-26Frosinone 2-1 Genoa

2019-03-03Genoa 0-0 Frosinone

2018-09-30Frosinone 1-2 Genoa

2016-04-03Genoa 4-0 Frosinone

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Genoa

Frosinone

League position#19 of 20#7 of 20

Record W-D-L0-0-32-0-1

Current streakL3W2

Record, home vs away0-0-21-0-0

Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.73 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 53% · BTTS in 53%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Stephan El ShaarawyGenoa · key player

To score7.6%

@ 13.16

1+ on target31.1%

@ 3.22

2+ shots22.1%

@ 4.52

Shots/90 2.35SoT/90 0.99Goals/90 0.21

Romano SchmidFrosinone · key player

To score12.8%

@ 7.81

1+ on target40.4%

@ 2.48

2+ shots45.2%

@ 2.21

Shots/90 1.57SoT/90 0.53Goals/90 0.14

Lorenzo ColomboGenoa · in form

To score14.6%

@ 6.85

1+ on target45.3%

@ 2.21

2+ shots48.1%

@ 2.08

Shots/90 2.36SoT/90 0.88Goals/90 0.23

Alessio ZerbinFrosinone · in form

To score1.9%

@ 52.63

1+ on target22.5%

@ 4.44

2+ shots16.5%

@ 6.06

Shots/90 1.11SoT/90 0.39Goals/90 0.03

VitinhaGenoa · in form

To score10.6%

@ 9.43

1+ on target34.7%

@ 2.88

2+ shots47.7%

@ 2.10

Shots/90 2.45SoT/90 0.65Goals/90 0.17

Florian GrillitschFrosinone · in form

To score0.0%

@ ·

1+ on target13.3%

@ 7.52

2+ shots5.6%

@ 17.86

Shots/90 0.61SoT/90 0.23Goals/90 0

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair

Genoa win2.102.35

Draw3.303.48

Frosinone win3.603.48

Over 2.5 goals1.902.43

Under 2.5 goals1.951.70

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Genoa win2.36

Draw3.44

Frosinone win3.50

Both teams to score2.12

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.12

Over 1.5 goals1.47

Over 2.5 goals2.43

Over 3.5 goals4.85

Genoa most2.36

Frosinone most3.50

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.61

Over 8.5 corners1.96

Over 9.5 corners2.49

Over 10.5 corners3.28

Genoa most1.88

Frosinone most2.75

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.36

Over 3.5 cards1.85

Over 4.5 cards2.84

Over 5.5 cards4.88

Genoa most3.23

Frosinone most2.04

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.53

Over 7.5 SoT1.86

Over 8.5 SoT2.37

Over 9.5 SoT3.12

Genoa most2.19

Frosinone most2.37

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.65

Over 24.5 shots2.05

Over 26.5 shots2.69

Over 28.5 shots3.73

Genoa most1.69

Frosinone most2.87

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.25

Over 22.5 fouls1.45

Over 24.5 fouls1.77

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5	60.7%	Over 24.5	48.7%	Over 26.5	37.1%	Over 28.5	26.8%
Most: Genoa	59.3%	Most: Frosinone	34.9%
Genoa Over 13.2	46.0%	Frosinone Over 13.2	28.9%

Shots on target

Over 6.5	65.4%	Over 7.5	53.7%	Over 8.5	42.3%	Over 9.5	32.0%
Most: Genoa	45.7%	Most: Frosinone	42.2%
Genoa Over 4.2	39.3%	Frosinone Over 4.2	36.8%

Cards

Over 2.5	73.7%	Over 3.5	54.1%	Over 4.5	35.2%
Most: Genoa	30.9%	Most: Frosinone	49.0%
Genoa Over 1.8	50.3%	Frosinone Over 1.8	63.3%

Genoa: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Stephan El Shaarawy	2.35	0.99	0.21	31.1%	22.1%	7.6%
Lorenzo Colombo	2.36	0.88	0.23	45.3%	48.1%	14.6%
Vitinha	2.45	0.65	0.17	34.7%	47.7%	10.6%
Junior Messias	2.36	0.61	0.2	21.2%	23.5%	7.5%
Tommaso Baldanzi	2.29	0.61	0.1	21.3%	22.7%	3.8%

Frosinone: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Romano Schmid	1.57	0.53	0.14	40.4%	45.2%	12.8%
Alessio Zerbin	1.11	0.39	0.03	22.5%	16.5%	1.9%
Florian Grillitsch	0.61	0.23	0	13.3%	5.6%	0.0%
Patrizio Masini	0.81	0.14	0.03	8.2%	8.9%	1.8%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Genoa clean sheet	35.9%
Frosinone clean sheet	27.1%
Genoa win to nil	25.5%
Frosinone win to nil	16.7%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	42.3%	draw	29.1%	away	28.6%

double_chance

1X	71.4%	12	70.9%	X2	57.7%

dnb

home	59.7%	away	40.3%

btts

yes	47.3%	no	52.7%

clean_sheet

home	36.0%	away	27.2%

win_to_nil

home	25.6%	away	16.7%

winning_margin

home_by_1	22.7%	home_by_2	12.7%	home_by_3plus	7.0%
away_by_1	17.6%	away_by_2	7.8%	away_by_3plus	3.1%

correct_score

0-0	10.4%	0-1	9.3%	0-2	5.1%
0-3	1.7%	0-4	0.4%	0-5	0.1%
1-0	12.1%	1-1	13.7%	1-2	6.7%
1-3	2.3%	1-4	0.6%	1-5	0.1%
2-0	8.3%	2-1	8.5%	2-2	4.3%
2-3	1.5%	2-4	0.4%	2-5	0.1%
3-0	3.6%	3-1	3.7%	3-2	1.9%
3-3	0.6%	3-4	0.2%	3-5	0.0%
4-0	1.2%	4-1	1.2%	4-2	0.6%
4-3	0.2%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.3%	5-1	0.3%	5-2	0.2%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.3%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	13.7%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	89.6%	under_0.5	10.4%	over_1.5	68.2%
under_1.5	31.8%	over_2.5	41.1%	under_2.5	58.9%
over_3.5	20.6%	under_3.5	79.4%	over_4.5	8.7%
under_4.5	91.3%	over_5.5	3.1%	under_5.5	96.9%

odd_even

odd	48.2%	even	51.8%

team_home

over_0.5	72.8%	under_0.5	27.2%	over_1.5	37.5%
under_1.5	62.6%	over_2.5	14.4%	under_2.5	85.6%

team_away

over_0.5	64.0%	under_0.5	36.0%	over_1.5	27.3%
under_1.5	72.7%	over_2.5	8.5%	under_2.5	91.5%

most

home	42.3%	draw	29.1%	away	28.6%

handicap

home_-2.5	7.0%	away_+2.5	93.0%	home_-1.5	19.7%
away_+1.5	80.4%	home_-0.5	42.3%	away_+0.5	57.7%
home_+0.5	71.4%	away_-0.5	28.6%	home_+1.5	89.1%
away_-1.5	10.9%	home_+2.5	96.9%	away_-2.5	3.1%

total_exact

exact_0	10.4%	exact_1	21.4%	exact_2	27.1%
exact_3	20.5%	exact_4	11.9%	exact_5	5.6%
exact_6	2.2%	exact_7plus	1.0%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	15.3%	draw	37.7%	away	47.1%

total

over_0.5	73.0%	under_0.5	27.1%	over_1.5	37.6%
under_1.5	62.4%	over_2.5	14.5%	under_2.5	85.5%

btts

yes	19.4%	no	80.6%

total_exact

exact_0	27.1%	exact_1	35.4%	exact_2	23.1%
exact_3	10.1%	exact_4plus	4.4%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	29.7%	draw	39.4%	away	31.0%

total

over_0.5	73.7%	under_0.5	26.3%	over_1.5	38.6%
under_1.5	61.4%	over_2.5	15.2%	under_2.5	84.9%

btts

yes	23.8%	no	76.2%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	11.2%	H/D	3.0%	H/A	1.2%
D/H	11.2%	D/D	14.8%	D/A	11.7%
A/H	2.7%	A/D	7.2%	A/A	37.2%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	62.2%	under_7.5	37.8%	over_8.5	50.9%
under_8.5	49.1%	over_9.5	40.2%	under_9.5	59.9%
over_10.5	30.5%	under_10.5	69.5%	over_11.5	22.4%
under_11.5	77.6%	over_12.5	15.9%	under_12.5	84.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	64.8%	under_3.5	35.2%	over_4.5	50.1%
under_4.5	49.9%	over_5.5	36.7%	under_5.5	63.3%

team_away

over_3.5	52.8%	under_3.5	47.2%	over_4.5	37.3%
under_4.5	62.7%	over_5.5	24.8%	under_5.5	75.2%

most

home	53.2%	draw	10.4%	away	36.4%

handicap

home_-3.5	24.2%	away_+3.5	75.8%	home_-1.5	42.7%
away_+1.5	57.3%	home_-0.5	53.2%	away_+0.5	46.8%
home_+0.5	63.6%	away_-0.5	36.4%	home_+1.5	73.1%
away_-1.5	26.9%	home_+3.5	87.2%	away_-3.5	12.8%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	60.7%	under_22.5	39.3%	over_24.5	48.7%
under_24.5	51.3%	over_26.5	37.1%	under_26.5	62.9%
over_28.5	26.8%	under_28.5	73.2%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	69.9%	under_10.5	30.1%	over_12.5	53.9%
under_12.5	46.1%	over_14.5	38.4%	under_14.5	61.6%

team_away

over_10.5	53.5%	under_10.5	46.5%	over_12.5	36.3%
under_12.5	63.7%	over_14.5	22.5%	under_14.5	77.6%

most

home	59.3%	draw	5.8%	away	34.9%

handicap

home_-4.5	35.3%	away_+4.5	64.7%	home_-2.5	47.2%
away_+2.5	52.8%	home_-0.5	59.3%	away_+0.5	40.7%
home_+0.5	65.1%	away_-0.5	34.9%	home_+2.5	75.7%
away_-2.5	24.3%	home_+4.5	84.2%	away_-4.5	15.8%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	65.4%	under_6.5	34.6%	over_7.5	53.7%
under_7.5	46.4%	over_8.5	42.3%	under_8.5	57.7%
over_9.5	32.0%	under_9.5	68.0%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	55.2%	under_3.5	44.8%	over_4.5	39.3%
under_4.5	60.7%	over_5.5	26.3%	under_5.5	73.7%

team_away

over_3.5	52.7%	under_3.5	47.3%	over_4.5	36.8%
under_4.5	63.2%	over_5.5	24.1%	under_5.5	75.9%

most

home	45.7%	draw	12.1%	away	42.2%

handicap

home_-2.5	24.0%	away_+2.5	76.0%	home_-0.5	45.7%
away_+0.5	54.3%	home_+0.5	57.8%	away_-0.5	42.2%
home_+2.5	78.7%	away_-2.5	21.3%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	73.7%	under_2.5	26.3%	over_3.5	54.1%
under_3.5	45.9%	over_4.5	35.2%	under_4.5	64.8%
over_5.5	20.5%	under_5.5	79.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	50.3%	under_1.5	49.7%	over_2.5	24.7%
under_2.5	75.3%

team_away

over_1.5	63.3%	under_1.5	36.7%	over_2.5	37.3%
under_2.5	62.7%

most

home	30.9%	draw	20.1%	away	49.0%

handicap

home_-1.5	15.6%	away_+1.5	84.5%	home_-0.5	30.9%
away_+0.5	69.1%	home_+0.5	51.0%	away_-0.5	49.0%
home_+1.5	70.5%	away_-1.5	29.5%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	80.1%	under_20.5	19.9%	over_22.5	69.1%
under_22.5	30.9%	over_24.5	56.5%	under_24.5	43.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	70.7%	under_9.5	29.3%	over_11.5	51.8%
under_11.5	48.2%	over_13.5	33.7%	under_13.5	66.3%

team_away

over_9.5	82.7%	under_9.5	17.3%	over_11.5	67.6%
under_11.5	32.4%	over_13.5	50.1%	under_13.5	49.9%

most

home	35.4%	draw	6.3%	away	58.4%

handicap

home_-3.5	19.3%	away_+3.5	80.7%	home_-0.5	35.4%
away_+0.5	64.6%	home_+2.5	54.7%	away_-2.5	45.3%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	10.7%	no	89.3%

home

yes	3.9%	no	96.1%

away

yes	7.0%	no	93.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Genoa predictions · Frosinone predictions · Serie A

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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