Ath Bilbao vs Elche prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

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Ath Bilbao vs Elche: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

La Liga
Ath Bilbao

LLLWW

Sat, 12 Sep 202617:30UK25°C · Clearing
Elche

DDLLL

Model’s top convictions

81%

Ath Bilbao or draw

79%

Over 1.5 goals

59%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.12).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Ath BilbaoWin probability
56.8%
Top 3 convictions

Ath Bilbao or draw81.0%High probabilityPays @ 1.23
Over 1.5 goals79.3%High probabilityPays @ 1.26
Over 8.5 corners58.8%Good chancePays @ 1.70

Model read

▾

"57% on Ath Bilbao is a measurement, not a promise." On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Ath Bilbao heavy favourites at 57% when Ath Bilbao meet Elche in the La Liga on 12 September 2026. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Ath Bilbao higher (69%) than our model does. No strong lean on goals (56% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Schedule edge: Ath Bilbao have had 3 more days of rest than Elche. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 3 wins for Ath Bilbao, 1 draws and 1 for Elche at 2.4 goals per match. Form guide over the last six: Ath Bilbao W2 D1 L3, Elche W1 D2 L3. Gorka Guruzeta drives the home shot volume, 1.1 on target per 90. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.12).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners47.9%@ 2.09
Draw or Elche43.2%@ 2.31
Over 10.5 corners37.6%@ 2.66
Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals55.8%@ 1.79
Both teams to score55.6%@ 1.80
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.2%@ 8.97
2-1 correct score9.9%@ 10.14
1-0 correct score9.5%@ 10.50

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Ath Bilbao

56.8%-12.2%

Draw

24.2%+4.9%

Elche

19.0%+7.3%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.12)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.579.3%

High probability

Over 2.555.8%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes55.6%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.558.8%

Good chance

Over 9.547.9%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.537.6%

Toss-up

Over 11.528.5%

Low chance

Most cornersAth Bilbao59.5%Elche30.0%

Shots markets

Over 22.557.6%

Good chance

Over 24.544.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.532.8%

Toss-up

Over 28.522.5%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Ath Bilbao14.3 taken11.3 faced
Elche11.5 taken9.8 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Ath Bilbao (4 games)

6.5 / 6.2

Elche (4 games)

3.5 / 10.5

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.579.3%2.555.8%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.579.3%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.12).

Form & head-to-head

Ath BilbaoLLLWW
ElcheDDLLL

Last 5 meetings: Ath Bilbao 3 · 1 draws · Elche 1 · 2.4 goals/game.

2026-02-20Ath Bilbao 2-1 Elche
2025-10-19Elche 0-0 Ath Bilbao
2023-05-28Ath Bilbao 0-1 Elche
2022-09-11Elche 1-4 Ath Bilbao
2022-04-03Ath Bilbao 2-1 Elche

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Ath BilbaoElche
League position#10 of 20#19 of 20
Record W-D-L2-0-20-1-3
Current streakW2L3
Record, home vs away1-0-10-1-1
Red cards this season10

League averages this season: 3.00 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 56% · BTTS in 54%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Gorka GuruzetaAth Bilbao · key player
To score21.1%

@ 4.74

1+ on target50.5%

@ 1.98

2+ shots58.7%

@ 1.70

Shots/90 3SoT/90 1.07Goals/90 0.36
Lucas CepedaElche · key player
To score6.9%

@ 14.49

1+ on target47.5%

@ 2.11

2+ shots41.8%

@ 2.39

Shots/90 3.79SoT/90 1.71Goals/90 0.19
Maroan SannadiAth Bilbao · in form
To score7.0%

@ 14.29

1+ on target33.4%

@ 2.99

2+ shots26.5%

@ 3.77

Shots/90 2.34SoT/90 0.95Goals/90 0.17
Facundo BuonanotteElche · in form
To score10.7%

@ 9.35

1+ on target32.9%

@ 3.04

2+ shots34.9%

@ 2.87

Shots/90 2.5SoT/90 0.81Goals/90 0.23
Oihan SancetAth Bilbao · in form
To score26.9%

@ 3.72

1+ on target45.9%

@ 2.18

2+ shots55.0%

@ 1.82

Shots/90 2.7SoT/90 0.9Goals/90 0.46
Thomas LemarElche · in form
To score11.6%

@ 8.62

1+ on target26.3%

@ 3.80

2+ shots14.5%

@ 6.90

Shots/90 1.47SoT/90 0.67Goals/90 0.27

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Ath Bilbao win1.401.76
Draw4.754.13
Elche win7.505.27
Over 2.5 goals1.671.79
Under 2.5 goals2.202.26

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Ath Bilbao win1.80
Draw4.23
Elche win4.79
Both teams to score1.80

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.26
Over 2.5 goals1.79
Over 3.5 goals2.99
Ath Bilbao most1.80
Elche most4.79

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.37
Over 8.5 corners1.63
Over 9.5 corners2.04
Over 10.5 corners2.68
Ath Bilbao most1.68
Elche most3.33

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.29
Over 3.5 cards1.71
Over 4.5 cards2.53
Over 5.5 cards4.20
Ath Bilbao most2.85
Elche most2.22

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.34
Over 7.5 SoT1.59
Over 8.5 SoT2.00
Over 9.5 SoT2.64
Ath Bilbao most1.59
Elche most3.91

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.74
Over 24.5 shots2.23
Over 26.5 shots3.05
Over 28.5 shots4.45
Ath Bilbao most1.43
Elche most4.05

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.25
Over 22.5 fouls1.46
Over 24.5 fouls1.82
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 57.6% Over 24.5 44.8% Over 26.5 32.7% Over 28.5 22.5%
Most: Ath Bilbao 69.8% Most: Elche 24.7%
Ath Bilbao Over 13.2 50.3% Elche Over 13.2 19.1%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 74.7% Over 7.5 62.7% Over 8.5 50.0% Over 9.5 37.8%
Most: Ath Bilbao 62.9% Most: Elche 25.6%
Ath Bilbao Over 4.2 56.8% Elche Over 4.2 29.4%

Cards

Over 2.5 77.2% Over 3.5 58.5% Over 4.5 39.5%
Most: Ath Bilbao 35.0% Most: Elche 45.0%
Ath Bilbao Over 1.8 56.8% Elche Over 1.8 63.7%

Ath Bilbao: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Gorka Guruzeta 3 1.07 0.36 50.5% 58.7% 21.1%
Maroan Sannadi 2.34 0.95 0.17 33.4% 26.5% 7.0%
Oihan Sancet 2.7 0.9 0.46 45.9% 55.0% 26.9%
Iñaki Williams 2.3 0.89 0.17 51.6% 56.0% 13.0%
Alex Berenguer 1.95 0.8 0.18 45.3% 43.3% 12.7%

Elche: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Lucas Cepeda 3.79 1.71 0.19 47.5% 41.8% 6.9%
Facundo Buonanotte 2.5 0.81 0.23 32.9% 34.9% 10.7%
Thomas Lemar 1.47 0.67 0.27 26.3% 14.5% 11.6%
Tete Morente 1.48 0.36 0.09 22.9% 28.9% 6.3%
Gonzalo Villar 0.68 0.34 0.08 22.2% 9.1% 5.7%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Ath Bilbao clean sheet 34.3%
Elche clean sheet 15.6%
Ath Bilbao win to nil 28.3%
Elche win to nil 9.7%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 55.5% draw 23.6% away 20.9%
double_chance
1X 79.1% 12 76.4% X2 44.5%
dnb
home 72.7% away 27.4%
btts
yes 55.6% no 44.4%
clean_sheet
home 34.7% away 15.6%
win_to_nil
home 28.8% away 9.7%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.2% home_by_2 17.2% home_by_3plus 15.1%
away_by_1 13.0% away_by_2 5.6% away_by_3plus 2.3%
correct_score
0-0 5.9% 0-1 5.2% 0-2 3.0%
0-3 1.1% 0-4 0.3% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 9.5% 1-1 11.2% 1-2 5.6%
1-3 2.0% 1-4 0.5% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.3% 2-1 9.9% 2-2 5.2%
2-3 1.9% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 5.8% 3-1 6.1% 3-2 3.2%
3-3 1.2% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 2.7% 4-1 2.8% 4-2 1.5%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 1.0% 5-1 1.1% 5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.3%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.1% under_0.5 5.9% over_1.5 79.4%
under_1.5 20.7% over_2.5 55.8% under_2.5 44.2%
over_3.5 33.5% under_3.5 66.6% over_4.5 17.1%
under_4.5 82.9% over_5.5 7.6% under_5.5 92.4%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 84.4% under_0.5 15.6% over_1.5 55.4%
under_1.5 44.6% over_2.5 28.5% under_2.5 71.5%
team_away
over_0.5 65.3% under_0.5 34.7% over_1.5 28.7%
under_1.5 71.4% over_2.5 9.2% under_2.5 90.8%
most
home 55.5% draw 23.6% away 20.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 15.1% away_+2.5 84.9% home_-1.5 32.3%
away_+1.5 67.7% home_-0.5 55.5% away_+0.5 44.5%
home_+0.5 79.1% away_-0.5 20.9% home_+1.5 92.1%
away_-1.5 7.9% home_+2.5 97.7% away_-2.5 2.3%
total_exact
exact_0 5.9% exact_1 14.7% exact_2 23.5%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 16.3% exact_5 9.5%
exact_6 4.6% exact_7plus 3.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 44.8% draw 39.6% away 15.6%
total
over_0.5 70.5% under_0.5 29.5% over_1.5 34.5%
under_1.5 65.5% over_2.5 12.5% under_2.5 87.5%
btts
yes 17.9% no 82.1%
total_exact
exact_0 29.5% exact_1 36.0% exact_2 22.0%
exact_3 9.0% exact_4plus 3.6%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 40.8% draw 33.2% away 26.1%
total
over_0.5 82.4% under_0.5 17.6% over_1.5 51.8%
under_1.5 48.2% over_2.5 25.3% under_2.5 74.7%
btts
yes 33.0% no 67.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 36.3% H/D 6.1% H/A 2.5%
D/H 16.2% D/D 13.1% D/A 10.3%
A/H 2.2% A/D 3.5% A/A 9.9%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 72.9% under_7.5 27.1% over_8.5 61.2%
under_8.5 38.8% over_9.5 49.0% under_9.5 51.0%
over_10.5 37.3% under_10.5 62.7% over_11.5 27.0%
under_11.5 73.0% over_12.5 18.6% under_12.5 81.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 76.3% under_3.5 23.7% over_4.5 61.7%
under_4.5 38.3% over_5.5 46.5% under_5.5 53.5%
team_away
over_3.5 56.4% under_3.5 43.6% over_4.5 38.9%
under_4.5 61.1% over_5.5 24.6% under_5.5 75.4%
most
home 59.7% draw 10.3% away 30.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.0% away_+3.5 72.0% home_-1.5 48.6%
away_+1.5 51.4% home_-0.5 59.7% away_+0.5 40.4%
home_+0.5 70.0% away_-0.5 30.0% home_+1.5 78.9%
away_-1.5 21.1% home_+3.5 91.3% away_-3.5 8.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 57.6% under_22.5 42.4% over_24.5 44.8%
under_24.5 55.2% over_26.5 32.8% under_26.5 67.3%
over_28.5 22.5% under_28.5 77.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 74.6% under_10.5 25.4% over_12.5 58.6%
under_12.5 41.4% over_14.5 42.2% under_14.5 57.8%
team_away
over_10.5 43.0% under_10.5 57.0% over_12.5 25.8%
under_12.5 74.2% over_14.5 13.8% under_14.5 86.2%
most
home 69.8% draw 5.5% away 24.7%
handicap
home_-4.5 44.5% away_+4.5 55.5% home_-2.5 57.5%
away_+2.5 42.5% home_-0.5 69.8% away_+0.5 30.2%
home_+0.5 75.3% away_-0.5 24.7% home_+2.5 84.5%
away_-2.5 15.5% home_+4.5 91.0% away_-4.5 9.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 74.7% under_6.5 25.3% over_7.5 62.7%
under_7.5 37.3% over_8.5 50.0% under_8.5 50.0%
over_9.5 37.8% under_9.5 62.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.1% under_3.5 26.9% over_4.5 56.8%
under_4.5 43.2% over_5.5 40.6% under_5.5 59.4%
team_away
over_3.5 47.4% under_3.5 52.6% over_4.5 29.4%
under_4.5 70.6% over_5.5 16.4% under_5.5 83.6%
most
home 62.8% draw 11.6% away 25.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 37.4% away_+2.5 62.6% home_-0.5 62.8%
away_+0.5 37.2% home_+0.5 74.4% away_-0.5 25.6%
home_+2.5 90.5% away_-2.5 9.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 77.3% under_2.5 22.8% over_3.5 58.5%
under_3.5 41.5% over_4.5 39.5% under_4.5 60.5%
over_5.5 23.8% under_5.5 76.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 56.8% under_1.5 43.2% over_2.5 30.4%
under_2.5 69.6%
team_away
over_1.5 63.7% under_1.5 36.3% over_2.5 37.5%
under_2.5 62.5%
most
home 35.1% draw 19.9% away 45.1%
handicap
home_-1.5 18.8% away_+1.5 81.2% home_-0.5 35.1%
away_+0.5 65.0% home_+0.5 54.9% away_-0.5 45.1%
home_+1.5 73.4% away_-1.5 26.6%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 80.0% under_20.5 20.1% over_22.5 68.3%
under_22.5 31.7% over_24.5 55.0% under_24.5 45.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 82.5% under_9.5 17.5% over_11.5 66.4%
under_11.5 33.6% over_13.5 47.9% under_13.5 52.2%
team_away
over_9.5 71.6% under_9.5 28.4% over_11.5 51.9%
under_11.5 48.1% over_13.5 33.0% under_13.5 67.0%
most
home 57.2% draw 6.6% away 36.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 36.8% away_+3.5 63.2% home_-0.5 57.2%
away_+0.5 42.8% home_+2.5 75.8% away_-2.5 24.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 19.3% no 80.7%
home
yes 13.6% no 86.4%
away
yes 6.6% no 93.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Ath Bilbao predictions · Elche predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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