RB Leipzig vs Hamburg prediction & probabilities (2026-09-13)

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RB Leipzig vs Hamburg: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 13 Sep 2026

Bundesliga
RB Leipzig

LWLWL

Sun, 13 Sep 202614:30UK19°C · Cloudy
Hamburg

WWDLL

Model’s top convictions

88%

RB Leipzig or draw

85%

Over 1.5 goals

65%

Over 2.5 goals

Fairly pricedValue_gap +0.016 <= 0.03.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
RB LeipzigWin probability
70.3%
Top 3 convictions

RB Leipzig or draw87.5%High probabilityPays @ 1.14
Over 1.5 goals85.3%High probabilityPays @ 1.17
Over 2.5 goals65.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.53

Model read

▾

"RB Leipzig or Hamburg? We publish probabilities, not certainties." RB Leipzig go into this Bundesliga meeting with Hamburg on 13 September 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 70%. Bookmakers see it the same way, 71% on RB Leipzig, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 65% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 59%. Conrad Harder drives the home shot volume, 1.6 on target per 90. Form guide over the last six: RB Leipzig W3 D0 L3, Hamburg W2 D1 L3. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 3 wins for RB Leipzig, 1 draws and 1 for Hamburg at 2.6 goals per match. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.016 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners41.0%@ 2.44
Over 11.5 corners31.7%@ 3.15
Medium risk

Both teams to score59.1%@ 1.69
Over 9.5 corners51.3%@ 1.95
Random finds

2-1 correct score9.7%@ 10.31
2-0 correct score9.2%@ 10.83
1-1 correct score8.8%@ 11.34

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

RB Leipzig

70.3%-0.7%

Draw

17.2%-1.0%

Hamburg

12.5%+1.7%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.016 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.585.3%

High probability

Over 2.565.4%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes59.1%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.562.0%

Strong chance

Over 9.551.3%

Good chance

Over 10.541.0%

Toss-up

Over 11.531.7%

Toss-up

Most cornersRB Leipzig61.0%Hamburg28.9%

Shots markets

Over 22.573.5%

Strong chance

Over 24.562.3%

Strong chance

Over 26.550.3%

Good chance

Over 28.538.5%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

RB Leipzig17.5 taken12.2 faced
Hamburg11.7 taken15.2 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

RB Leipzig (2 games)

8.0 / 14.0

Hamburg (2 games)

1.0 / 7.5

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.585.3%2.565.4%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.565.4%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Value_gap +0.016 <= 0.03.

Form & head-to-head

RB LeipzigLWLWL
HamburgWWDLL

Last 5 meetings: RB Leipzig 3 · 1 draws · Hamburg 1 · 2.6 goals/game.

2026-03-01Hamburg 1-2 RB Leipzig
2025-10-18RB Leipzig 2-1 Hamburg
2018-01-27RB Leipzig 1-1 Hamburg
2017-09-08Hamburg 0-2 RB Leipzig
2017-02-11RB Leipzig 0-3 Hamburg

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

RB LeipzigHamburg
League position#8 of 18#18 of 18
Record W-D-L1-0-10-0-2
Current streakL1L2
Record, home vs away1-0-00-0-1
Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Conrad HarderRB Leipzig · key player
To score11.7%

@ 8.55

1+ on target39.3%

@ 2.54

2+ shots42.1%

@ 2.38

Shots/90 4.49SoT/90 1.56Goals/90 0.39
Terem Igobor MoffiHamburg · key player
To score16.2%

@ 6.17

1+ on target53.4%

@ 1.87

2+ shots41.2%

@ 2.43

Shots/90 3.51SoT/90 1.9Goals/90 0.44
Christopher NkunkuRB Leipzig · in form
To score15.9%

@ 6.29

1+ on target38.2%

@ 2.62

2+ shots25.7%

@ 3.89

Shots/90 2.26SoT/90 1.11Goals/90 0.4
Yussuf PoulsenHamburg · in form
To score7.9%

@ 12.66

1+ on target22.1%

@ 4.52

2+ shots11.7%

@ 8.55

Shots/90 3.11SoT/90 1.33Goals/90 0.44
Johan BakayokoRB Leipzig · in form
To score8.6%

@ 11.63

1+ on target33.6%

@ 2.98

2+ shots33.1%

@ 3.02

Shots/90 2.77SoT/90 0.96Goals/90 0.21
Rayan PhilippeHamburg · in form
To score14.9%

@ 6.71

1+ on target42.1%

@ 2.38

2+ shots38.0%

@ 2.63

Shots/90 2.78SoT/90 1.15Goals/90 0.34

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
RB Leipzig win1.361.42
Draw5.005.82
Hamburg win8.008.01
Over 2.5 goals1.401.53
Under 2.5 goals3.002.89

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

RB Leipzig win1.53
Draw5.14
Hamburg win6.49
Both teams to score1.69

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.17
Over 2.5 goals1.53
Over 3.5 goals2.30
Over 4.5 goals3.99
RB Leipzig most1.53
Hamburg most6.49

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.32
Over 8.5 corners1.54
Over 9.5 corners1.89
Over 10.5 corners2.43
RB Leipzig most1.64
Hamburg most3.46

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.38
Over 3.5 cards1.92
Over 4.5 cards3.06
Over 5.5 cards5.55
RB Leipzig most2.53
Hamburg most2.56

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.15
Over 7.5 SoT1.27
Over 8.5 SoT1.45
Over 9.5 SoT1.72
RB Leipzig most1.50
Hamburg most4.26

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.36
Over 24.5 shots1.61
Over 26.5 shots1.99
Over 28.5 shots2.60
RB Leipzig most1.48
Hamburg most3.68

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.78
Over 22.5 fouls2.27
Over 24.5 fouls3.05
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 73.5% Over 24.5 62.3% Over 26.5 50.3% Over 28.5 38.5%
Most: RB Leipzig 67.6% Most: Hamburg 27.2%
RB Leipzig Over 13.2 61.2% Hamburg Over 13.2 31.5%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 86.7% Over 7.5 78.6% Over 8.5 68.8% Over 9.5 58.0%
Most: RB Leipzig 66.9% Most: Hamburg 23.5%
RB Leipzig Over 4.2 71.4% Hamburg Over 4.2 40.3%

Cards

Over 2.5 72.6% Over 3.5 52.0% Over 4.5 32.6%
Most: RB Leipzig 39.6% Most: Hamburg 39.0%
RB Leipzig Over 1.8 56.4% Hamburg Over 1.8 56.0%

RB Leipzig: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Conrad Harder 4.49 1.56 0.39 39.3% 42.1% 11.7%
Christopher Nkunku 2.26 1.11 0.4 38.2% 25.7% 15.9%
Johan Bakayoko 2.77 0.96 0.21 33.6% 33.1% 8.6%
Brajan Gruda 2.01 0.93 0.2 35.3% 24.3% 8.9%
Tidiam Gomis 3.37 0.84 0.17 16.3% 16.1% 3.5%

Hamburg: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Terem Igobor Moffi 3.51 1.9 0.44 53.4% 41.2% 16.2%
Yussuf Poulsen 3.11 1.33 0.44 22.1% 11.7% 7.9%
Rayan Philippe 2.78 1.15 0.34 42.1% 38.0% 14.9%
Albert Grønbæk 1.94 0.85 0.18 37.4% 28.9% 9.4%
Fábio Vieira 2.36 0.75 0.28 47.0% 59.3% 21.1%

Clean sheet & win to nil

RB Leipzig clean sheet 33.8%
Hamburg clean sheet 9.9%
RB Leipzig win to nil 29.9%
Hamburg win to nil 6.0%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 65.1% draw 19.4% away 15.4%
double_chance
1X 84.6% 12 80.6% X2 34.8%
dnb
home 80.9% away 19.1%
btts
yes 59.1% no 40.9%
clean_sheet
home 34.9% away 9.9%
win_to_nil
home 31.0% away 6.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.1% home_by_2 19.4% home_by_3plus 23.6%
away_by_1 9.9% away_by_2 4.0% away_by_3plus 1.5%
correct_score
0-0 3.9% 0-1 3.2% 0-2 1.9%
0-3 0.7% 0-4 0.2% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 7.6% 1-1 8.8% 1-2 4.4%
1-3 1.6% 1-4 0.4% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.2% 2-1 9.7% 2-2 5.1%
2-3 1.8% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 7.1% 3-1 7.5% 3-2 3.9%
3-3 1.4% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 4.1% 4-1 4.3% 4-2 2.3%
4-3 0.8% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 1.9% 5-1 2.0% 5-2 1.1%
5-3 0.4% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 3.2%
likeliest_score
h 200.0% a 100.0% p 9.7%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 96.1% under_0.5 3.9% over_1.5 85.3%
under_1.5 14.7% over_2.5 65.4% under_2.5 34.6%
over_3.5 43.5% under_3.5 56.5% over_4.5 25.0%
under_4.5 75.0% over_5.5 12.6% under_5.5 87.4%
odd_even
odd 49.1% even 50.9%
team_home
over_0.5 90.1% under_0.5 9.9% over_1.5 67.2%
under_1.5 32.8% over_2.5 40.8% under_2.5 59.2%
team_away
over_0.5 65.1% under_0.5 34.9% over_1.5 28.4%
under_1.5 71.6% over_2.5 9.1% under_2.5 90.9%
most
home 65.1% draw 19.4% away 15.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 23.6% away_+2.5 76.4% home_-1.5 43.0%
away_+1.5 57.0% home_-0.5 65.1% away_+0.5 34.8%
home_+0.5 84.6% away_-0.5 15.4% home_+1.5 94.4%
away_-1.5 5.6% home_+2.5 98.5% away_-2.5 1.5%
total_exact
exact_0 3.9% exact_1 10.8% exact_2 20.0%
exact_3 21.9% exact_4 18.4% exact_5 12.4%
exact_6 7.0% exact_7plus 5.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 55.5% draw 32.6% away 11.9%
total
over_0.5 77.7% under_0.5 22.3% over_1.5 44.2%
under_1.5 55.8% over_2.5 19.1% under_2.5 80.9%
btts
yes 20.8% no 79.2%
total_exact
exact_0 22.3% exact_1 33.5% exact_2 25.1%
exact_3 12.6% exact_4plus 6.6%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 46.3% draw 32.5% away 21.2%
total
over_0.5 82.1% under_0.5 17.9% over_1.5 51.3%
under_1.5 48.7% over_2.5 24.8% under_2.5 75.2%
btts
yes 31.1% no 68.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 48.0% H/D 5.6% H/A 1.9%
D/H 15.1% D/D 10.6% D/A 6.9%
A/H 2.0% A/D 2.9% A/A 6.9%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 75.9% under_7.5 24.2% over_8.5 64.8%
under_8.5 35.2% over_9.5 52.9% under_9.5 47.1%
over_10.5 41.1% under_10.5 58.9% over_11.5 30.5%
under_11.5 69.5% over_12.5 21.6% under_12.5 78.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 78.7% under_3.5 21.3% over_4.5 64.9%
under_4.5 35.1% over_5.5 50.1% under_5.5 49.9%
team_away
over_3.5 57.7% under_3.5 42.3% over_4.5 40.3%
under_4.5 59.7% over_5.5 25.8% under_5.5 74.2%
most
home 61.1% draw 9.9% away 28.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 30.0% away_+3.5 70.0% home_-1.5 50.5%
away_+1.5 49.5% home_-0.5 61.1% away_+0.5 38.9%
home_+0.5 71.1% away_-0.5 28.9% home_+1.5 79.6%
away_-1.5 20.4% home_+3.5 91.4% away_-3.5 8.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 73.5% under_22.5 26.5% over_24.5 62.3%
under_24.5 37.7% over_26.5 50.3% under_26.5 49.7%
over_28.5 38.5% under_28.5 61.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 82.1% under_10.5 17.9% over_12.5 68.7%
under_12.5 31.3% over_14.5 53.3% under_14.5 46.7%
team_away
over_10.5 57.4% under_10.5 42.6% over_12.5 39.5%
under_12.5 60.5% over_14.5 24.6% under_14.5 75.4%
most
home 67.6% draw 5.3% away 27.2%
handicap
home_-4.5 43.9% away_+4.5 56.1% home_-2.5 56.0%
away_+2.5 44.0% home_-0.5 67.6% away_+0.5 32.4%
home_+0.5 72.8% away_-0.5 27.2% home_+2.5 81.9%
away_-2.5 18.1% home_+4.5 88.8% away_-4.5 11.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 86.7% under_6.5 13.3% over_7.5 78.6%
under_7.5 21.4% over_8.5 68.8% under_8.5 31.2%
over_9.5 58.0% under_9.5 42.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 83.6% under_3.5 16.4% over_4.5 71.4%
under_4.5 28.6% over_5.5 57.4% under_5.5 42.6%
team_away
over_3.5 58.0% under_3.5 42.0% over_4.5 40.3%
under_4.5 59.7% over_5.5 25.6% under_5.5 74.4%
most
home 66.9% draw 9.6% away 23.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 44.8% away_+2.5 55.2% home_-0.5 66.9%
away_+0.5 33.1% home_+0.5 76.5% away_-0.5 23.5%
home_+2.5 90.2% away_-2.5 9.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 72.6% under_2.5 27.4% over_3.5 52.0%
under_3.5 48.0% over_4.5 32.6% under_4.5 67.4%
over_5.5 18.0% under_5.5 82.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 56.4% under_1.5 43.6% over_2.5 29.4%
under_2.5 70.6%
team_away
over_1.5 56.0% under_1.5 44.0% over_2.5 29.0%
under_2.5 71.0%
most
home 39.6% draw 21.4% away 39.0%
handicap
home_-1.5 21.3% away_+1.5 78.7% home_-0.5 39.6%
away_+0.5 60.4% home_+0.5 61.0% away_-0.5 39.0%
home_+1.5 79.2% away_-1.5 20.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 56.1% under_20.5 43.9% over_22.5 44.0%
under_22.5 56.0% over_24.5 32.8% under_24.5 67.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 57.1% under_9.5 42.9% over_11.5 39.9%
under_11.5 60.1% over_13.5 25.6% under_13.5 74.4%
team_away
over_9.5 60.5% under_9.5 39.5% over_11.5 43.4%
under_11.5 56.6% over_13.5 28.7% under_13.5 71.3%
most
home 44.4% draw 6.2% away 49.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.1% away_+3.5 72.9% home_-0.5 44.4%
away_+0.5 55.6% home_+2.5 62.9% away_-2.5 37.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 10.8% no 89.2%
home
yes 5.9% no 94.1%
away
yes 5.1% no 94.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: RB Leipzig predictions · Hamburg predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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