Tottenham vs Everton prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

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Tottenham vs Everton: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

Premier League
Tottenham

LWLLD

Sat, 12 Sep 202617:30UK22°C · Cloudy
Everton

LLWDD

Model’s top convictions

73%

Over 1.5 goals

67%

Tottenham or draw

65%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.26).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
TottenhamWin probability
39.0%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals73.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.37
Tottenham or draw67.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.49
Over 8.5 corners64.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.55

Model read

▾

"39% on Tottenham is a measurement, not a promise." The probabilities barely separate Tottenham and Everton on 12 September 2026: Tottenham nose ahead at 39%. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Tottenham at 48%. Caution noted. No strong lean on goals (47% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Team news worth noting: Tottenham have Vicario ruled out, Pedro Porro a doubt, Romero ruled out, Spence ruled out. For shots markets, Omar Marmoush is the obvious watch at 1.6 on target per 90 in recent data. The run in: Tottenham arrive W1 D2 L3, Everton W1 D3 L2. The recent series reads 3 wins for Tottenham, 1 draws and 1 for Everton over 5 games, 3.4 goals on average. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.26).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals47.1%@ 2.12
Over 10.5 corners45.2%@ 2.21
Over 11.5 corners36.2%@ 2.76
Medium risk

Draw or Everton61.0%@ 1.64
Over 9.5 corners54.8%@ 1.82
Under 2.5 goals52.9%@ 1.89
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.3%@ 7.55
1-0 correct score9.6%@ 10.45
0-1 correct score9.0%@ 11.10

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Tottenham

39.0%-8.9%

Draw

28.0%+2.0%

Everton

33.0%+7.0%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.26)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.573.0%

Strong chance

Over 2.547.1%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes52.5%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.564.6%

Strong chance

Over 9.554.8%

Good chance

Over 10.545.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.536.2%

Toss-up

Most cornersTottenham56.1%Everton34.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.564.3%

Strong chance

Over 24.552.9%

Good chance

Over 26.541.4%

Toss-up

Over 28.530.9%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

Tottenham13.8 taken12.8 faced
Everton13.0 taken15.2 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Tottenham (3 games)

5.0 / 7.7

Everton (3 games)

6.3 / 9.3

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.573.0%2.547.1%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.573.0%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.26).

Form & head-to-head

TottenhamLWLLD
EvertonLLWDD

Last 5 meetings: Tottenham 3 · 1 draws · Everton 1 · 3.4 goals/game.

2026-05-24Tottenham 1-0 Everton
2025-10-26Everton 0-3 Tottenham
2025-01-19Everton 3-2 Tottenham
2024-08-24Tottenham 4-0 Everton
2024-02-03Everton 2-2 Tottenham

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

TottenhamEverton
League position#18 of 20#8 of 20
Record W-D-L0-1-21-2-0
Current streakD1D2
Record, home vs away0-0-10-1-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.83 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 53%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Omar MarmoushTottenham · key player
To score35.9%

@ 2.79

1+ on target67.6%

@ 1.48

2+ shots78.3%

@ 1.28

Shots/90 4.15SoT/90 1.62Goals/90 0.64
Carlos AlcarazEverton · key player
To score5.4%

@ 18.52

1+ on target36.9%

@ 2.71

2+ shots37.2%

@ 2.69

Shots/90 3.02SoT/90 1.07Goals/90 0.13
SávioTottenham · in form
To score3.7%

@ 27.03

1+ on target41.7%

@ 2.40

2+ shots42.2%

@ 2.37

Shots/90 2.67SoT/90 1Goals/90 0.07
Thierno BarryEverton · in form
To score22.8%

@ 4.39

1+ on target41.5%

@ 2.41

2+ shots47.6%

@ 2.10

Shots/90 2.42SoT/90 0.81Goals/90 0.39
Dominic SolankeTottenham · in form
To score23.8%

@ 4.20

1+ on target52.8%

@ 1.89

2+ shots54.3%

@ 1.84

Shots/90 2.28SoT/90 0.94Goals/90 0.34
Iliman NdiayeEverton · in form
To score20.7%

@ 4.83

1+ on target45.7%

@ 2.19

2+ shots35.5%

@ 2.82

Shots/90 1.35SoT/90 0.66Goals/90 0.25

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Tottenham win2.002.56
Draw3.603.58
Everton win3.603.03
Over 2.5 goals1.912.12
Under 2.5 goals1.911.89

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Tottenham win2.65
Draw3.59
Everton win2.90
Both teams to score1.90

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.37
Over 2.5 goals2.13
Over 3.5 goals3.93
Tottenham most2.65
Everton most2.90

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.27
Over 8.5 corners1.46
Over 9.5 corners1.74
Over 10.5 corners2.17
Tottenham most1.78
Everton most2.92

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.32
Over 3.5 cards1.80
Over 4.5 cards2.76
Over 5.5 cards4.82
Tottenham most3.04
Everton most2.15

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.39
Over 7.5 SoT1.65
Over 8.5 SoT2.06
Over 9.5 SoT2.69
Tottenham most1.94
Everton most2.74

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.55
Over 24.5 shots1.89
Over 26.5 shots2.41
Over 28.5 shots3.24
Tottenham most1.59
Everton most3.14

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.50
Over 22.5 fouls1.97
Over 24.5 fouls2.83

Team news

Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.

  • VicarioTottenhamOut0% to play
  • Pedro PorroTottenhamDoubtful75% to play
  • RomeroTottenhamOut0% to play
  • SpenceTottenhamOut0% to play
  • UdogieTottenhamDoubtful75% to play
  • PhillipsTottenhamOut0% to play
  • SouzaTottenhamOut0% to play
  • XaviTottenhamOut0% to play
  • OdobertTottenhamOut0% to play
  • P.M.SarrTottenhamOut0% to play
  • KulusevskiTottenhamOut0% to play
  • MooreTottenhamOut0% to play
  • RicharlisonTottenhamOut0% to play
  • ScarlettTottenhamOut0% to play

What the absences carry

  • RicharlisonTottenham8.4%18.1 xG+xA in 2,444 min
  • Mikey MooreTottenham1.2%2.5 xG+xA in 485 min
  • Mykhailo MudrykTottenhamnot enough minutes to weigh0.8 xG+xA in 80 min
  • BetoEverton13.5%23.2 xG+xA in 3,143 min
  • Tyrique GeorgeEverton2.5%4.3 xG+xA in 732 min

Share of the squad’s total expected goal involvement (xG + xA) this season. It is a measure of what the team is missing, not a prediction of the result: we do not publish a re-run win probability, because estimating who replaces him is a model change that has to be validated first.

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 64.3% Over 24.5 52.9% Over 26.5 41.4% Over 28.5 30.9%
Most: Tottenham 62.7% Most: Everton 31.9%
Tottenham Over 13.2 51.5% Everton Over 13.2 29.4%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 72.1% Over 7.5 60.4% Over 8.5 48.4% Over 9.5 37.1%
Most: Tottenham 51.4% Most: Everton 36.5%
Tottenham Over 4.2 47.8% Everton Over 4.2 37.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 75.5% Over 3.5 55.7% Over 4.5 36.2%
Most: Tottenham 32.8% Most: Everton 46.6%
Tottenham Over 1.8 53.7% Everton Over 1.8 63.4%

Tottenham: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Omar Marmoush 4.15 1.62 0.64 67.6% 78.3% 35.9%
Sávio 2.67 1 0.07 41.7% 42.2% 3.7%
Dominic Solanke 2.28 0.94 0.34 52.8% 54.3% 23.8%
James Maddison 1.91 0.76 0.49 35.3% 29.8% 24.5%
Mathys Tel 2.44 0.71 0.2 32.2% 38.6% 10.4%

Everton: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Carlos Alcaraz 3.02 1.07 0.13 36.9% 37.2% 5.4%
Thierno Barry 2.42 0.81 0.39 41.5% 47.6% 22.8%
Iliman Ndiaye 1.35 0.66 0.25 45.7% 35.5% 20.7%
Brennan Johnson 1.74 0.55 0.31 29.1% 29.7% 17.6%
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall 1.41 0.52 0.26 33.1% 29.7% 18.2%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Tottenham clean sheet 28.8%
Everton clean sheet 26.9%
Tottenham win to nil 20.4%
Everton win to nil 18.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 37.7% draw 27.8% away 34.5%
double_chance
1X 65.5% 12 72.2% X2 62.3%
dnb
home 52.2% away 47.8%
btts
yes 52.5% no 47.5%
clean_sheet
home 28.9% away 27.0%
win_to_nil
home 20.5% away 18.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1 20.4% home_by_2 11.2% home_by_3plus 6.1%
away_by_1 19.3% away_by_2 10.0% away_by_3plus 5.1%
correct_score
0-0 8.4% 0-1 9.0% 0-2 6.0%
0-3 2.5% 0-4 0.8% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 9.6% 1-1 13.3% 1-2 7.9%
1-3 3.3% 1-4 1.0% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 6.7% 2-1 8.3% 2-2 5.1%
2-3 2.1% 2-4 0.7% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 2.9% 3-1 3.6% 3-2 2.3%
3-3 0.9% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.0% 4-1 1.2% 4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.3%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.6% under_0.5 8.4% over_1.5 73.0%
under_1.5 27.0% over_2.5 47.1% under_2.5 52.9%
over_3.5 25.5% under_3.5 74.5% over_4.5 11.7%
under_4.5 88.3% over_5.5 4.6% under_5.5 95.4%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 73.0% under_0.5 27.0% over_1.5 37.7%
under_1.5 62.3% over_2.5 14.6% under_2.5 85.4%
team_away
over_0.5 71.1% under_0.5 28.9% over_1.5 35.3%
under_1.5 64.7% over_2.5 13.1% under_2.5 86.9%
most
home 37.7% draw 27.8% away 34.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 6.1% away_+2.5 93.9% home_-1.5 17.3%
away_+1.5 82.8% home_-0.5 37.7% away_+0.5 62.3%
home_+0.5 65.5% away_-0.5 34.5% home_+1.5 84.8%
away_-1.5 15.2% home_+2.5 94.9% away_-2.5 5.1%
total_exact
exact_0 8.4% exact_1 18.6% exact_2 26.0%
exact_3 21.6% exact_4 13.8% exact_5 7.1%
exact_6 3.0% exact_7plus 1.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 26.4% draw 45.2% away 28.4%
total
over_0.5 65.1% under_0.5 34.9% over_1.5 28.4%
under_1.5 71.6% over_2.5 9.0% under_2.5 91.0%
btts
yes 16.8% no 83.2%
total_exact
exact_0 34.9% exact_1 36.7% exact_2 19.4%
exact_3 6.8% exact_4plus 2.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 29.8% draw 37.0% away 33.2%
total
over_0.5 77.3% under_0.5 22.7% over_1.5 43.7%
under_1.5 56.3% over_2.5 18.7% under_2.5 81.3%
btts
yes 27.4% no 72.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 19.0% H/D 5.1% H/A 2.3%
D/H 13.5% D/D 16.7% D/A 15.0%
A/H 2.0% A/D 5.0% A/A 21.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 78.7% under_7.5 21.3% over_8.5 68.6%
under_8.5 31.4% over_9.5 57.4% under_9.5 42.6%
over_10.5 46.1% under_10.5 53.9% over_11.5 35.4%
under_11.5 64.6% over_12.5 26.1% under_12.5 73.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.3% under_3.5 22.7% over_4.5 63.8%
under_4.5 36.2% over_5.5 49.7% under_5.5 50.3%
team_away
over_3.5 63.3% under_3.5 36.7% over_4.5 47.1%
under_4.5 52.9% over_5.5 32.7% under_5.5 67.3%
most
home 56.3% draw 9.5% away 34.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.0% away_+3.5 72.0% home_-1.5 46.4%
away_+1.5 53.6% home_-0.5 56.3% away_+0.5 43.8%
home_+0.5 65.8% away_-0.5 34.2% home_+1.5 74.4%
away_-1.5 25.6% home_+3.5 87.5% away_-3.5 12.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 64.3% under_22.5 35.7% over_24.5 52.9%
under_24.5 47.1% over_26.5 41.4% under_26.5 58.6%
over_28.5 30.9% under_28.5 69.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 73.8% under_10.5 26.2% over_12.5 59.1%
under_12.5 40.9% over_14.5 44.0% under_14.5 56.0%
team_away
over_10.5 53.4% under_10.5 46.6% over_12.5 36.7%
under_12.5 63.3% over_14.5 23.1% under_14.5 76.9%
most
home 62.7% draw 5.4% away 31.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 39.6% away_+4.5 60.5% home_-2.5 51.2%
away_+2.5 48.8% home_-0.5 62.7% away_+0.5 37.3%
home_+0.5 68.2% away_-0.5 31.9% home_+2.5 77.8%
away_-2.5 22.2% home_+4.5 85.6% away_-4.5 14.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 72.1% under_6.5 27.9% over_7.5 60.5%
under_7.5 39.6% over_8.5 48.4% under_8.5 51.6%
over_9.5 37.1% under_9.5 62.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 64.3% under_3.5 35.7% over_4.5 47.8%
under_4.5 52.2% over_5.5 33.0% under_5.5 67.0%
team_away
over_3.5 54.1% under_3.5 45.9% over_4.5 37.0%
under_4.5 63.0% over_5.5 23.3% under_5.5 76.7%
most
home 51.4% draw 12.1% away 36.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 28.3% away_+2.5 71.7% home_-0.5 51.4%
away_+0.5 48.6% home_+0.5 63.5% away_-0.5 36.5%
home_+2.5 83.2% away_-2.5 16.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 75.5% under_2.5 24.5% over_3.5 55.7%
under_3.5 44.3% over_4.5 36.2% under_4.5 63.8%
over_5.5 20.7% under_5.5 79.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 53.7% under_1.5 46.4% over_2.5 26.9%
under_2.5 73.1%
team_away
over_1.5 63.4% under_1.5 36.6% over_2.5 36.5%
under_2.5 63.5%
most
home 32.9% draw 20.5% away 46.6%
handicap
home_-1.5 16.7% away_+1.5 83.3% home_-0.5 32.9%
away_+0.5 67.2% home_+0.5 53.4% away_-0.5 46.6%
home_+1.5 72.8% away_-1.5 27.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 66.5% under_20.5 33.5% over_22.5 50.7%
under_22.5 49.3% over_24.5 35.3% under_24.5 64.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 69.9% under_9.5 30.1% over_11.5 47.6%
under_11.5 52.4% over_13.5 27.3% under_13.5 72.7%
team_away
over_9.5 68.0% under_9.5 32.0% over_11.5 45.5%
under_11.5 54.6% over_13.5 25.5% under_13.5 74.6%
most
home 47.5% draw 8.0% away 44.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.2% away_+3.5 74.8% home_-0.5 47.5%
away_+0.5 52.5% home_+2.5 70.6% away_-2.5 29.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 11.4% no 88.6%
home
yes 1.9% no 98.1%
away
yes 9.7% no 90.3%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Tottenham predictions · Everton predictions · Premier League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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