Liverpool vs Fulham prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

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Liverpool vs Fulham: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

Premier League
Liverpool

LDDDW

Sat, 12 Sep 202615:00UK21°C · Cloudy
Fulham

DWLLL

Model’s top convictions

81%

Over 1.5 goals

78%

Liverpool or draw

62%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.14).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
LiverpoolWin probability
56.4%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals80.7%High probabilityPays @ 1.24
Liverpool or draw78.4%High probabilityPays @ 1.28
Over 8.5 corners62.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.61

Model read

▾

Liverpool go into this Premier League meeting with Fulham on 12 September 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 56%. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Liverpool at 68%. Caution noted. No strong lean on goals (58% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. The recent series reads 2 wins for Liverpool, 2 draws and 1 for Fulham over 5 games, 3.8 goals on average. Bradley Barcola drives the home shot volume, 1.4 on target per 90. Recent form reads W1 D4 L1 for Liverpool against W1 D1 L4 for Fulham. On the availability front, Liverpool have Pecsi ruled out, Jaros ruled out, Gomez ruled out, Bradley ruled out. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.14)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Draw or Fulham43.6%@ 2.29
Over 10.5 corners42.2%@ 2.37
Over 11.5 corners33.4%@ 2.99
Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals57.8%@ 1.73
Both teams to score57.5%@ 1.74
Over 9.5 corners51.9%@ 1.93
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.0%@ 9.13
2-1 correct score9.9%@ 10.14
2-0 correct score8.9%@ 11.29

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Liverpool

56.4%-11.3%

Draw

21.9%+3.8%

Fulham

21.7%+7.5%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.14)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.580.7%

High probability

Over 2.557.8%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes57.5%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.562.0%

Strong chance

Over 9.551.9%

Good chance

Over 10.542.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.533.4%

Toss-up

Most cornersLiverpool53.5%Fulham36.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.564.5%

Strong chance

Over 24.553.0%

Good chance

Over 26.541.6%

Toss-up

Over 28.531.0%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

Liverpool16.3 taken11.7 faced
Fulham16.3 taken11.3 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Liverpool (3 games)

6.7 / 10.0

Fulham (3 games)

7.3 / 9.3

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.580.7%2.557.8%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.580.7%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.14).

Form & head-to-head

LiverpoolLDDDW
FulhamDWLLL

Last 5 meetings: Liverpool 2 · 2 draws · Fulham 1 · 3.8 goals/game.

2026-04-11Liverpool 2-0 Fulham
2026-01-04Fulham 2-2 Liverpool
2025-04-06Fulham 3-2 Liverpool
2024-12-14Liverpool 2-2 Fulham
2024-04-21Fulham 1-3 Liverpool

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

LiverpoolFulham
League position#6 of 20#19 of 20
Record W-D-L1-2-00-0-3
Current streakW1L3
Record, home vs away0-1-00-0-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.83 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 53%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Bradley BarcolaLiverpool · key player
To score28.8%

@ 3.47

1+ on target62.5%

@ 1.60

2+ shots63.2%

@ 1.58

Shots/90 3.04SoT/90 1.39Goals/90 0.48
Rodrigo MunizFulham · key player
To score16.0%

@ 6.25

1+ on target34.4%

@ 2.91

2+ shots34.9%

@ 2.87

Shots/90 3.39SoT/90 1.16Goals/90 0.48
Alexander IsakLiverpool · in form
To score43.6%

@ 2.29

1+ on target67.4%

@ 1.48

2+ shots70.3%

@ 1.42

Shots/90 3SoT/90 1.37Goals/90 0.7
KevinFulham · in form
To score3.5%

@ 28.57

1+ on target29.3%

@ 3.41

2+ shots22.6%

@ 4.42

Shots/90 2.25SoT/90 0.87Goals/90 0.09
Víctor MuñozLiverpool · in form
To score15.9%

@ 6.29

1+ on target56.2%

@ 1.78

2+ shots65.1%

@ 1.54

Shots/90 2.69SoT/90 1Goals/90 0.21
Joshua KingFulham · in form
To score6.5%

@ 15.38

1+ on target28.8%

@ 3.47

2+ shots23.2%

@ 4.31

Shots/90 2.04SoT/90 0.76Goals/90 0.15

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Liverpool win1.421.77
Draw5.004.56
Fulham win6.254.62
Over 2.5 goals1.441.73
Under 2.5 goals2.752.37

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Liverpool win1.82
Draw4.28
Fulham win4.63
Both teams to score1.74

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.24
Over 2.5 goals1.73
Over 3.5 goals2.83
Liverpool most1.82
Fulham most4.63

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.31
Over 8.5 corners1.53
Over 9.5 corners1.85
Over 10.5 corners2.35
Liverpool most1.86
Fulham most2.74

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.40
Over 3.5 cards1.99
Over 4.5 cards3.22
Over 5.5 cards5.95
Liverpool most3.77
Fulham most1.89

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.43
Over 7.5 SoT1.73
Over 8.5 SoT2.18
Over 9.5 SoT2.89
Liverpool most1.74
Fulham most3.26

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.55
Over 24.5 shots1.89
Over 26.5 shots2.40
Over 28.5 shots3.22
Liverpool most1.61
Fulham most3.08

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.93
Over 22.5 fouls2.81
Over 24.5 fouls4.53

Team news

Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.

  • PecsiLiverpoolOut0% to play
  • JarosLiverpoolOut0% to play
  • GomezLiverpoolOut0% to play
  • BradleyLiverpoolOut0% to play
  • LeoniLiverpoolOut0% to play
  • RamsayLiverpoolOut0% to play
  • ChiesaLiverpoolOut0% to play
  • C.JonesLiverpoolOut0% to play
  • BajceticLiverpoolOut0% to play
  • EkitikéLiverpoolOut0% to play
  • ElliottLiverpoolOut0% to play
  • Conor Bradley, Giovanni Leoni, Wataru Endo, Alexander Isak, Alisson BeckerLiverpoolOut
  • McNallyFulhamOut0% to play
  • CairneyFulhamOut0% to play

What the absences carry

  • Kenny TeteFulham2.8%3.3 xG+xA in 3,351 min

Share of the squad’s total expected goal involvement (xG + xA) this season. It is a measure of what the team is missing, not a prediction of the result: we do not publish a re-run win probability, because estimating who replaces him is a model change that has to be validated first.

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 64.5% Over 24.5 53.0% Over 26.5 41.6% Over 28.5 31.0%
Most: Liverpool 62.0% Most: Fulham 32.5%
Liverpool Over 13.2 51.1% Fulham Over 13.2 30.0%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 69.9% Over 7.5 58.0% Over 8.5 45.8% Over 9.5 34.7%
Most: Liverpool 57.5% Most: Fulham 30.7%
Liverpool Over 4.2 50.1% Fulham Over 4.2 30.7%

Cards

Over 2.5 71.2% Over 3.5 50.3% Over 4.5 31.0%
Most: Liverpool 26.5% Most: Fulham 52.9%
Liverpool Over 1.8 44.5% Fulham Over 1.8 64.0%

Liverpool: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Bradley Barcola 3.04 1.39 0.48 62.5% 63.2% 28.8%
Alexander Isak 3 1.37 0.7 67.4% 70.3% 43.6%
Víctor Muñoz 2.69 1 0.21 56.2% 65.1% 15.9%
Florian Wirtz 2.33 0.96 0.24 55.0% 57.7% 18.1%
Rio Ngumoha 2.65 0.88 0.29 23.8% 19.8% 8.6%

Fulham: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Rodrigo Muniz 3.39 1.16 0.48 34.4% 34.9% 16.0%
Kevin 2.25 0.87 0.09 29.3% 22.6% 3.5%
Joshua King 2.04 0.76 0.15 28.8% 23.2% 6.5%
Gonzalo García 2.32 0.75 0.48 25.7% 23.4% 17.3%
Alex Iwobi 1.73 0.66 0.19 45.2% 46.7% 15.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Liverpool clean sheet 32.4%
Fulham clean sheet 15.1%
Liverpool win to nil 27.0%
Fulham win to nil 9.6%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 55.0% draw 23.4% away 21.6%
double_chance
1X 78.4% 12 76.6% X2 45.0%
dnb
home 71.8% away 28.2%
btts
yes 57.5% no 42.5%
clean_sheet
home 32.9% away 15.1%
win_to_nil
home 27.4% away 9.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.9% home_by_2 17.0% home_by_3plus 15.2%
away_by_1 13.2% away_by_2 5.9% away_by_3plus 2.5%
correct_score
0-0 5.5% 0-1 5.0% 0-2 3.1%
0-3 1.1% 0-4 0.3% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 8.9% 1-1 11.0% 1-2 5.8%
1-3 2.2% 1-4 0.6% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 8.9% 2-1 9.9% 2-2 5.5%
2-3 2.0% 2-4 0.6% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 5.6% 3-1 6.2% 3-2 3.5%
3-3 1.3% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 2.7% 4-1 2.9% 4-2 1.6%
4-3 0.6% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 1.0% 5-1 1.1% 5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.5% under_0.5 5.5% over_1.5 80.7%
under_1.5 19.3% over_2.5 57.8% under_2.5 42.2%
over_3.5 35.4% under_3.5 64.6% over_4.5 18.6%
under_4.5 81.4% over_5.5 8.5% under_5.5 91.5%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 84.9% under_0.5 15.1% over_1.5 56.4%
under_1.5 43.6% over_2.5 29.4% under_2.5 70.6%
team_away
over_0.5 67.1% under_0.5 32.9% over_1.5 30.6%
under_1.5 69.4% over_2.5 10.2% under_2.5 89.8%
most
home 55.0% draw 23.4% away 21.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 15.2% away_+2.5 84.8% home_-1.5 32.2%
away_+1.5 67.8% home_-0.5 55.0% away_+0.5 45.0%
home_+0.5 78.4% away_-0.5 21.6% home_+1.5 91.6%
away_-1.5 8.4% home_+2.5 97.5% away_-2.5 2.5%
total_exact
exact_0 5.5% exact_1 13.9% exact_2 22.9%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 16.8% exact_5 10.1%
exact_6 5.1% exact_7plus 3.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 45.1% draw 38.4% away 16.5%
total
over_0.5 72.5% under_0.5 27.5% over_1.5 37.0%
under_1.5 63.0% over_2.5 14.1% under_2.5 85.9%
btts
yes 19.7% no 80.3%
total_exact
exact_0 27.5% exact_1 35.5% exact_2 22.9%
exact_3 9.9% exact_4plus 4.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 44.2% draw 32.0% away 23.8%
total
over_0.5 83.6% under_0.5 16.4% over_1.5 53.9%
under_1.5 46.1% over_2.5 27.1% under_2.5 72.9%
btts
yes 34.0% no 66.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 37.3% H/D 5.6% H/A 2.2%
D/H 17.0% D/D 12.3% D/A 9.2%
A/H 2.6% A/D 3.8% A/A 10.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 76.2% under_7.5 23.8% over_8.5 65.5%
under_8.5 34.5% over_9.5 54.0% under_9.5 46.0%
over_10.5 42.6% under_10.5 57.4% over_11.5 32.2%
under_11.5 67.8% over_12.5 23.3% under_12.5 76.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.3% under_3.5 25.7% over_4.5 60.0%
under_4.5 40.0% over_5.5 45.5% under_5.5 54.5%
team_away
over_3.5 63.1% under_3.5 36.9% over_4.5 46.9%
under_4.5 53.1% over_5.5 32.5% under_5.5 67.5%
most
home 53.6% draw 9.9% away 36.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.3% away_+3.5 74.7% home_-1.5 43.5%
away_+1.5 56.5% home_-0.5 53.6% away_+0.5 46.4%
home_+0.5 63.5% away_-0.5 36.5% home_+1.5 72.6%
away_-1.5 27.5% home_+3.5 86.5% away_-3.5 13.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 64.5% under_22.5 35.5% over_24.5 53.0%
under_24.5 47.0% over_26.5 41.6% under_26.5 58.4%
over_28.5 31.0% under_28.5 69.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 73.5% under_10.5 26.5% over_12.5 58.8%
under_12.5 41.2% over_14.5 43.7% under_14.5 56.3%
team_away
over_10.5 54.0% under_10.5 46.0% over_12.5 37.3%
under_12.5 62.7% over_14.5 23.6% under_14.5 76.4%
most
home 62.1% draw 5.5% away 32.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 38.9% away_+4.5 61.1% home_-2.5 50.5%
away_+2.5 49.5% home_-0.5 62.1% away_+0.5 38.0%
home_+0.5 67.5% away_-0.5 32.5% home_+2.5 77.3%
away_-2.5 22.7% home_+4.5 85.1% away_-4.5 14.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 69.9% under_6.5 30.1% over_7.5 58.0%
under_7.5 42.1% over_8.5 45.9% under_8.5 54.2%
over_9.5 34.7% under_9.5 65.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 66.3% under_3.5 33.7% over_4.5 50.1%
under_4.5 49.9% over_5.5 35.2% under_5.5 64.8%
team_away
over_3.5 47.6% under_3.5 52.4% over_4.5 30.7%
under_4.5 69.3% over_5.5 18.2% under_5.5 81.8%
most
home 57.5% draw 11.8% away 30.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 33.2% away_+2.5 66.8% home_-0.5 57.5%
away_+0.5 42.5% home_+0.5 69.3% away_-0.5 30.7%
home_+2.5 87.1% away_-2.5 12.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 71.2% under_2.5 28.8% over_3.5 50.3%
under_3.5 49.7% over_4.5 31.0% under_4.5 69.0%
over_5.5 16.8% under_5.5 83.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 44.5% under_1.5 55.5% over_2.5 19.4%
under_2.5 80.7%
team_away
over_1.5 64.0% under_1.5 36.0% over_2.5 37.1%
under_2.5 62.9%
most
home 26.5% draw 20.5% away 52.9%
handicap
home_-1.5 12.0% away_+1.5 88.0% home_-0.5 26.5%
away_+0.5 73.5% home_+0.5 47.1% away_-0.5 52.9%
home_+1.5 68.0% away_-1.5 32.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 51.8% under_20.5 48.2% over_22.5 35.6%
under_22.5 64.4% over_24.5 22.1% under_24.5 77.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 55.0% under_9.5 45.0% over_11.5 32.0%
under_11.5 68.0% over_13.5 15.3% under_13.5 84.7%
team_away
over_9.5 62.9% under_9.5 37.1% over_11.5 39.8%
under_11.5 60.2% over_13.5 21.0% under_13.5 79.0%
most
home 40.1% draw 8.3% away 51.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 18.8% away_+3.5 81.2% home_-0.5 40.1%
away_+0.5 59.9% home_+2.5 64.9% away_-2.5 35.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 10.9% no 89.1%
home
yes 5.6% no 94.4%
away
yes 5.6% no 94.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Liverpool predictions · Fulham predictions · Premier League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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