Sabadell vs Cordoba prediction & probabilities (2026-09-07)

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Sabadell vs Cordoba: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Segunda División
Sabadell

WWDDW

Full time3-2Mon, 7 Sep 202619:30UK
Cordoba

LDLWL

Model’s top convictions

78%

Over 1.5 goals

67%

Draw or Cordoba

59%

Sabadell or draw

Full time10 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Sabadell 3-2 Cordoba
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
10 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Cordoba at 40.9%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 54.0% and it landed (5 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 78.1% and it landed (5 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 68.3% and it missed (5 goals). We called Yes at 57.8% and it landed. We called Yes at 59.7% and it landed. We called Yes at 70.5% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 50.8% and it landed (7 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 75.6% and it landed (5 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 52.4% and it landed (33 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 66.4% and it landed (14 shots on target). We called No at 86.6% and it landed.

Match data Sabadell Cordoba
Goals, 1st half 2 1
Goals, 2nd half 1 1
Shots 20 13
Shots on target 10 4
Corners 3 4
Yellow cards 2 3
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 20 8

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
CordobaWin probability
40.9%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals78.1%High probabilityPays @ 1.28
Draw or Cordoba67.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.49
Sabadell or draw59.1%Good chancePays @ 1.69

Model read

▾

"41% on Cordoba is a measurement, not a promise." Sabadell versus Cordoba in the Segunda División on 7 September 2026 is finely balanced. Cordoba edge it at 41%, but the gap to the field is slim. Our number sits above the market's 28% for Cordoba. The gap itself is information. No strong lean on goals (54% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Sabadell are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Form guide over the last six: Sabadell W3 D2 L1, Cordoba W1 D1 L4. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.28)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Cordoba win40.9%@ 2.44
Over 10.5 corners37.8%@ 2.65
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners59.1%@ 1.69
Both teams to score57.8%@ 1.73
Over 2.5 goals54.0%@ 1.85
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.3%@ 8.12
1-2 correct score8.8%@ 11.33
0-1 correct score8.2%@ 12.15

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Sabadell

33.0%-11.5%

Draw

26.1%-1.9%

Cordoba

40.9%+13.4%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.28)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.578.1%

High probability

Over 2.554.0%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes57.8%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.559.1%

Good chance

Over 9.548.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.537.8%

Toss-up

Over 11.528.6%

Low chance

Most cornersSabadell49.8%Cordoba39.0%

Shots markets

Over 22.565.1%

Strong chance

Over 24.552.4%

Good chance

Over 26.539.9%

Toss-up

Over 28.528.6%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.578.1%2.554.0%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.578.1%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

SabadellWWDDW
CordobaLDLWL

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

SabadellCordoba
League position#9 of 22#18 of 22
Record W-D-L1-2-01-0-2
Current streakW1L1
Record, home vs away1-0-00-0-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.36 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 42% · BTTS in 42%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Sabadell win2.103.03
Draw3.253.83
Cordoba win3.302.44
Over 2.5 goals2.081.85
Under 2.5 goals1.732.17

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Sabadell win3.03
Draw3.83
Cordoba win2.45
Both teams to score1.73

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.28
Over 2.5 goals1.85
Over 3.5 goals3.16
Sabadell most3.03
Cordoba most2.45

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.37
Over 8.5 corners1.63
Over 9.5 corners2.03
Over 10.5 corners2.67
Sabadell most2.00
Cordoba most2.56

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.13
Over 3.5 cards1.32
Over 4.5 cards1.71
Over 5.5 cards2.43
Sabadell most2.44
Cordoba most2.44

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.28
Over 7.5 SoT1.51
Over 8.5 SoT1.86
Over 9.5 SoT2.44
Sabadell most1.95
Cordoba most2.78

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.54
Over 24.5 shots1.91
Over 26.5 shots2.51
Over 28.5 shots3.50
Sabadell most1.69
Cordoba most2.87

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.13
Over 22.5 fouls1.26
Over 24.5 fouls1.46
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 77.9% Over 7.5 66.4% Over 8.5 53.6% Over 9.5 41.0%
Most: Sabadell 51.2% Most: Cordoba 36.0%
Sabadell Over 4.2 51.6% Cordoba Over 4.2 40.6%

Cards

Over 2.5 88.8% Over 3.5 75.6% Over 4.5 58.6%
Most: Sabadell 40.9% Most: Cordoba 41.0%
Sabadell Over 1.8 72.8% Cordoba Over 1.8 72.8%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Sabadell clean sheet 22.2%
Cordoba clean sheet 26.3%
Sabadell win to nil 15.7%
Cordoba win to nil 19.9%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 33.0% draw 26.1% away 40.9%
double_chance
1X 59.1% 12 73.9% X2 67.0%
dnb
home 44.7% away 55.3%
btts
yes 57.8% no 42.2%
clean_sheet
home 22.2% away 26.4%
win_to_nil
home 15.8% away 20.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 18.1% home_by_2 9.7% home_by_3plus 5.3%
away_by_1 20.5% away_by_2 12.4% away_by_3plus 8.0%
correct_score
0-0 6.4% 0-1 8.2% 0-2 6.7%
0-3 3.3% 0-4 1.3% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 7.2% 1-1 12.3% 1-2 8.8%
1-3 4.4% 1-4 1.7% 1-5 0.5%
2-0 5.2% 2-1 7.8% 2-2 5.9%
2-3 2.9% 2-4 1.1% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 2.3% 3-1 3.5% 3-2 2.6%
3-3 1.3% 3-4 0.5% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 0.8% 4-1 1.2% 4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.3%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.6% under_0.5 6.4% over_1.5 78.1%
under_1.5 21.9% over_2.5 54.0% under_2.5 46.0%
over_3.5 31.7% under_3.5 68.3% over_4.5 15.8%
under_4.5 84.2% over_5.5 6.9% under_5.5 93.2%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 73.6% under_0.5 26.4% over_1.5 38.5%
under_1.5 61.6% over_2.5 15.1% under_2.5 84.9%
team_away
over_0.5 77.8% under_0.5 22.2% over_1.5 44.4%
under_1.5 55.6% over_2.5 19.3% under_2.5 80.7%
most
home 33.0% draw 26.1% away 40.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 5.3% away_+2.5 94.8% home_-1.5 14.9%
away_+1.5 85.1% home_-0.5 33.0% away_+0.5 67.0%
home_+0.5 59.1% away_-0.5 40.9% home_+1.5 79.7%
away_-1.5 20.3% home_+2.5 92.1% away_-2.5 8.0%
total_exact
exact_0 6.4% exact_1 15.4% exact_2 24.2%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 15.8% exact_5 9.0%
exact_6 4.3% exact_7plus 2.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 31.6% draw 48.7% away 19.7%
total
over_0.5 59.7% under_0.5 40.3% over_1.5 23.1%
under_1.5 76.9% over_2.5 6.4% under_2.5 93.6%
btts
yes 12.9% no 87.2%
total_exact
exact_0 40.3% exact_1 36.6% exact_2 16.6%
exact_3 5.0% exact_4plus 1.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 39.6% draw 40.7% away 19.7%
total
over_0.5 70.5% under_0.5 29.5% over_1.5 34.4%
under_1.5 65.6% over_2.5 12.5% under_2.5 87.5%
btts
yes 19.5% no 80.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 26.6% H/D 4.0% H/A 1.0%
D/H 19.3% D/D 19.8% D/A 9.6%
A/H 2.2% A/D 4.7% A/A 12.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 73.1% under_7.5 26.9% over_8.5 61.4%
under_8.5 38.6% over_9.5 49.2% under_9.5 50.8%
over_10.5 37.4% under_10.5 62.6% over_11.5 27.1%
under_11.5 72.9% over_12.5 18.7% under_12.5 81.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 71.1% under_3.5 28.9% over_4.5 55.1%
under_4.5 44.9% over_5.5 39.6% under_5.5 60.4%
team_away
over_3.5 64.0% under_3.5 36.0% over_4.5 46.9%
under_4.5 53.1% over_5.5 31.7% under_5.5 68.3%
most
home 49.9% draw 11.0% away 39.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.3% away_+3.5 79.7% home_-1.5 39.0%
away_+1.5 61.1% home_-0.5 49.9% away_+0.5 50.1%
home_+0.5 60.9% away_-0.5 39.1% home_+1.5 71.1%
away_-1.5 28.9% home_+3.5 86.6% away_-3.5 13.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 65.1% under_22.5 34.9% over_24.5 52.4%
under_24.5 47.6% over_26.5 39.9% under_26.5 60.1%
over_28.5 28.6% under_28.5 71.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 73.2% under_10.5 26.8% over_12.5 56.5%
under_12.5 43.5% over_14.5 39.6% under_14.5 60.4%
team_away
over_10.5 57.6% under_10.5 42.4% over_12.5 39.0%
under_12.5 61.0% over_14.5 23.7% under_14.5 76.4%
most
home 59.0% draw 6.2% away 34.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 33.7% away_+4.5 66.3% home_-2.5 46.1%
away_+2.5 53.9% home_-0.5 59.0% away_+0.5 41.0%
home_+0.5 65.2% away_-0.5 34.8% home_+2.5 76.3%
away_-2.5 23.7% home_+4.5 85.1% away_-4.5 15.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 77.9% under_6.5 22.1% over_7.5 66.4%
under_7.5 33.6% over_8.5 53.6% under_8.5 46.4%
over_9.5 41.0% under_9.5 59.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 69.2% under_3.5 30.8% over_4.5 51.6%
under_4.5 48.4% over_5.5 35.0% under_5.5 65.0%
team_away
over_3.5 59.3% under_3.5 40.7% over_4.5 40.6%
under_4.5 59.4% over_5.5 25.0% under_5.5 75.0%
most
home 51.2% draw 12.8% away 36.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 26.7% away_+2.5 73.3% home_-0.5 51.2%
away_+0.5 48.8% home_+0.5 64.0% away_-0.5 36.0%
home_+2.5 84.4% away_-2.5 15.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 88.8% under_2.5 11.2% over_3.5 75.6%
under_3.5 24.4% over_4.5 58.6% under_4.5 41.4%
over_5.5 41.1% under_5.5 58.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 72.8% under_1.5 27.2% over_2.5 47.6%
under_2.5 52.4%
team_away
over_1.5 72.9% under_1.5 27.2% over_2.5 47.6%
under_2.5 52.4%
most
home 40.9% draw 18.1% away 41.0%
handicap
home_-1.5 24.7% away_+1.5 75.3% home_-0.5 40.9%
away_+0.5 59.1% home_+0.5 59.0% away_-0.5 41.0%
home_+1.5 75.2% away_-1.5 24.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 88.2% under_20.5 11.8% over_22.5 79.6%
under_22.5 20.4% over_24.5 68.5% under_24.5 31.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 84.3% under_9.5 15.7% over_11.5 69.1%
under_11.5 30.9% over_13.5 51.0% under_13.5 49.0%
team_away
over_9.5 83.9% under_9.5 16.2% over_11.5 68.4%
under_11.5 31.6% over_13.5 50.2% under_13.5 49.8%
most
home 47.3% draw 6.6% away 46.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.7% away_+3.5 71.4% home_-0.5 47.3%
away_+0.5 52.7% home_+2.5 66.5% away_-2.5 33.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 13.4% no 86.6%
home
yes 7.5% no 92.5%
away
yes 6.4% no 93.6%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Sabadell predictions · Cordoba predictions · Segunda División

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Segunda DivisiónSabadellCordobaTrack record