Sheffield United vs Norwich: model prediction
ChampionshipOver 1.5 goals
Sheffield United or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Full time9 of 11 calls right
Our most likely call was Sheffield United at 42.4%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 52.5% and it landed (4 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 77.1% and it landed (4 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 69.8% and it missed (4 goals). We called Yes at 56.5% and it landed. We called Yes at 71.2% and it landed. We called Yes at 78.3% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 59.5% and it landed (11 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 54.4% and it landed (5 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 50.6% and it missed (30 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 57.5% and it landed (12 shots on target). We called No at 83.2% and it landed.
| Match data | Sheffield United | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| Goals, 1st half | 1 | 2 |
| Goals, 2nd half | 0 | 1 |
| Shots | 11 | 19 |
| Shots on target | 4 | 8 |
| Corners | 7 | 4 |
| Yellow cards | 2 | 3 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 14 | 13 |
Final match data.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Sheffield United versus Norwich on 5 September 2026 tilts towards Sheffield United in our numbers (42%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. Notably, the model is warmer on Sheffield United than the market (36%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. Totals sit close to the fence: 52% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 56%. Recent form reads W2 D3 L1 for Sheffield United against W1 D1 L4 for Norwich. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for Sheffield United, 2 draws and 1 for Norwich, averaging 2.0 goals a game. The engine passes on this one (outside trust zone (model prob 0.42, zone (0.45, 0.7))).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
42.4%+6.1%
26.4%-1.2%
31.2%-4.8%
outside trust zone (model prob 0.42, zone (0.45, 0.7))
Goals markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Sheffield United 2 · 2 draws · Norwich 1 · 2.0 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Sheffield United
NorwichLeague averages this season: 2.94 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 67% · BTTS in 73%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 70.0% | Over 7.5 | 57.5% | Over 8.5 | 44.9% | Over 9.5 | 33.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Sheffield United | 48.2% | Most: Norwich | 38.9% | ||||
| Sheffield United Over 4.2 | 43.3% | Norwich Over 4.2 | 36.6% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 74.5% | Over 3.5 | 54.4% | Over 4.5 | 34.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Sheffield United | 28.6% | Most: Norwich | 51.2% | ||
| Sheffield United Over 1.8 | 49.2% | Norwich Over 1.8 | 65.4% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Sheffield United clean sheet | 28.1% |
|---|---|
| Norwich clean sheet | 22.0% |
| Sheffield United win to nil | 21.3% |
| Norwich win to nil | 15.2% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 42.4% | draw | 26.4% | away | 31.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 68.8% | 12 | 73.6% | X2 | 57.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 57.6% | away | 42.4% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 56.5% | no | 43.5% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 28.3% | away | 22.1% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 21.4% | away | 15.3% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 21.2% | home_by_2 | 12.9% | home_by_3plus | 8.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 17.6% | away_by_2 | 9.0% | away_by_3plus | 4.6% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 6.8% | 0-1 | 7.3% | 0-2 | 5.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.1% | 0-4 | 0.7% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 8.8% | 1-1 | 12.5% | 1-2 | 7.5% |
| 1-3 | 3.2% | 1-4 | 1.0% | 1-5 | 0.3% |
| 2-0 | 7.1% | 2-1 | 9.0% | 2-2 | 5.7% |
| 2-3 | 2.4% | 2-4 | 0.8% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 3.6% | 3-1 | 4.5% | 3-2 | 2.9% |
| 3-3 | 1.2% | 3-4 | 0.4% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.4% | 4-1 | 1.7% | 4-2 | 1.1% |
| 4-3 | 0.5% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.4% | 5-1 | 0.5% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.7% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 93.2% | under_0.5 | 6.8% | over_1.5 | 77.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 22.9% | over_2.5 | 52.5% | under_2.5 | 47.5% |
| over_3.5 | 30.3% | under_3.5 | 69.8% | over_4.5 | 14.9% |
| under_4.5 | 85.2% | over_5.5 | 6.3% | under_5.5 | 93.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.6% | even | 51.4% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 77.9% | under_0.5 | 22.1% | over_1.5 | 44.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.4% | over_2.5 | 19.4% | under_2.5 | 80.6% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 71.7% | under_0.5 | 28.3% | over_1.5 | 36.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 64.0% | over_2.5 | 13.5% | under_2.5 | 86.5% |
most
| home | 42.4% | draw | 26.4% | away | 31.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 8.4% | away_+2.5 | 91.6% | home_-1.5 | 21.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 78.8% | home_-0.5 | 42.4% | away_+0.5 | 57.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.8% | away_-0.5 | 31.2% | home_+1.5 | 86.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 13.6% | home_+2.5 | 95.4% | away_-2.5 | 4.6% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 6.8% | exact_1 | 16.1% | exact_2 | 24.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.2% | exact_4 | 15.4% | exact_5 | 8.6% |
| exact_6 | 4.0% | exact_7plus | 2.3% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 34.9% | draw | 40.9% | away | 24.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 71.2% | under_0.5 | 28.8% | over_1.5 | 35.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 64.7% | over_2.5 | 13.0% | under_2.5 | 87.0% |
btts
| yes | 21.0% | no | 79.0% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 28.8% | exact_1 | 35.9% | exact_2 | 22.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 9.2% | exact_4plus | 3.8% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 35.8% | draw | 36.2% | away | 28.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 78.3% | under_0.5 | 21.7% | over_1.5 | 45.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 54.8% | over_2.5 | 19.8% | under_2.5 | 80.2% |
btts
| yes | 28.3% | no | 71.7% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 27.3% | H/D | 5.4% | H/A | 2.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 14.6% | D/D | 14.8% | D/A | 11.4% |
| A/H | 2.4% | A/D | 4.9% | A/A | 17.0% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 80.6% | under_7.5 | 19.4% | over_8.5 | 70.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 29.3% | over_9.5 | 59.5% | under_9.5 | 40.5% |
| over_10.5 | 47.9% | under_10.5 | 52.1% | over_11.5 | 36.8% |
| under_11.5 | 63.2% | over_12.5 | 27.1% | under_12.5 | 72.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 80.1% | under_3.5 | 19.9% | over_4.5 | 66.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 33.4% | over_5.5 | 51.9% | under_5.5 | 48.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 65.0% | under_3.5 | 35.0% | over_4.5 | 48.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 51.9% | over_5.5 | 32.8% | under_5.5 | 67.3% |
most
| home | 57.6% | draw | 10.0% | away | 32.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 27.5% | away_+3.5 | 72.5% | home_-1.5 | 47.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 52.9% | home_-0.5 | 57.6% | away_+0.5 | 42.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.6% | away_-0.5 | 32.4% | home_+1.5 | 76.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 23.5% | home_+3.5 | 89.4% | away_-3.5 | 10.6% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 62.0% | under_22.5 | 38.0% | over_24.5 | 49.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 50.6% | over_26.5 | 37.3% | under_26.5 | 62.7% |
| over_28.5 | 26.5% | under_28.5 | 73.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 72.4% | under_10.5 | 27.6% | over_12.5 | 55.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 44.1% | over_14.5 | 39.5% | under_14.5 | 60.5% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 53.3% | under_10.5 | 46.7% | over_12.5 | 35.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 64.8% | over_14.5 | 20.9% | under_14.5 | 79.1% |
most
| home | 61.3% | draw | 6.0% | away | 32.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 36.2% | away_+4.5 | 63.8% | home_-2.5 | 48.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 51.3% | home_-0.5 | 61.3% | away_+0.5 | 38.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.3% | away_-0.5 | 32.7% | home_+2.5 | 77.9% |
| away_-2.5 | 22.1% | home_+4.5 | 86.2% | away_-4.5 | 13.8% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 70.0% | under_6.5 | 30.0% | over_7.5 | 57.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 42.5% | over_8.5 | 44.9% | under_8.5 | 55.1% |
| over_9.5 | 33.3% | under_9.5 | 66.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 60.9% | under_3.5 | 39.1% | over_4.5 | 43.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.7% | over_5.5 | 28.2% | under_5.5 | 71.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 54.4% | under_3.5 | 45.6% | over_4.5 | 36.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 63.4% | over_5.5 | 22.5% | under_5.5 | 77.5% |
most
| home | 48.2% | draw | 12.9% | away | 38.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 24.5% | away_+2.5 | 75.5% | home_-0.5 | 48.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 51.8% | home_+0.5 | 61.1% | away_-0.5 | 38.9% |
| home_+2.5 | 82.4% | away_-2.5 | 17.6% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 74.5% | under_2.5 | 25.5% | over_3.5 | 54.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 45.6% | over_4.5 | 34.9% | under_4.5 | 65.1% |
| over_5.5 | 19.8% | under_5.5 | 80.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 49.2% | under_1.5 | 50.8% | over_2.5 | 23.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 77.0% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 65.4% | under_1.5 | 34.6% | over_2.5 | 38.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 61.3% |
most
| home | 28.6% | draw | 20.3% | away | 51.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 13.7% | away_+1.5 | 86.3% | home_-0.5 | 28.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 71.4% | home_+0.5 | 48.8% | away_-0.5 | 51.2% |
| home_+1.5 | 69.0% | away_-1.5 | 31.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 58.5% | under_20.5 | 41.5% | over_22.5 | 42.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 57.2% | over_24.5 | 28.5% | under_24.5 | 71.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 57.0% | under_9.5 | 43.0% | over_11.5 | 34.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 65.4% | over_13.5 | 17.5% | under_13.5 | 82.5% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 69.0% | under_9.5 | 31.1% | over_11.5 | 47.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 52.7% | over_13.5 | 27.7% | under_13.5 | 72.3% |
most
| home | 37.1% | draw | 7.8% | away | 55.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 17.6% | away_+3.5 | 82.4% | home_-0.5 | 37.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 62.9% | home_+2.5 | 60.7% | away_-2.5 | 39.3% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 16.8% | no | 83.2% |
|---|
home
| yes | 8.4% | no | 91.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 9.2% | no | 90.8% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Sheffield United predictions · Norwich predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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