Stoke vs Charlton prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

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Stoke vs Charlton: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Championship
Stoke

LLLLW

Full time4-0Sat, 5 Sep 202612:30UK
Charlton

LWWWD

Model’s top convictions

67%

Stoke or draw

67%

Over 1.5 goals

66%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time6 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Stoke 4-0 Charlton
✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✕ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✕ Red card
7 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Stoke at 36.7%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 60.7% and it missed (4 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 66.6% and it landed (4 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 80.8% and it missed (4 goals). We called No at 53.6% and it landed. We called Yes at 59.1% and it landed. We called Yes at 73.9% and it missed. We called Over 9.5 at 57.7% and it missed (8 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 51.9% and it landed (5 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 50.1% and it landed (30 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 54.0% and it landed (11 shots on target). We called No at 87.7% and it missed.

Match data Stoke Charlton
Goals, 1st half 4 0
Goals, 2nd half 0 0
Shots 17 13
Shots on target 8 3
Corners 5 3
Yellow cards 1 4
Red cards 0 1
Fouls 20 13

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
StokeWin probability
36.7%
Top 3 convictions

Stoke or draw66.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.50
Over 1.5 goals66.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.50
Over 8.5 corners66.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.51

Model read

▾

The probabilities barely separate Stoke and Charlton on 5 September 2026: Stoke nose ahead at 37%. Three things stand out in the data: 1) The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Stoke at 46%. Caution noted. 2) This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 39% with both teams to score at 46%. 3) Recent form reads W1 D0 L5 for Stoke against W4 D1 L1 for Charlton. Head to head, the last 4 meetings gave 2 wins for Stoke, 0 draws and 2 for Charlton, averaging 3.0 goals a game. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.26)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners45.4%@ 2.20
Over 2.5 goals39.3%@ 2.54
Over 11.5 corners35.7%@ 2.80
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals60.7%@ 1.65
Over 9.5 corners55.8%@ 1.79
Not both teams to score53.6%@ 1.87
Random finds

1-1 correct score14.0%@ 7.16
1-0 correct score11.5%@ 8.71
0-0 correct score11.1%@ 8.99

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Stoke

36.7%-9.1%

Draw

30.0%+1.8%

Charlton

33.3%+7.3%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.26)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.566.6%

Strong chance

Over 2.539.3%

Toss-up

BTTS · Yes46.4%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.566.2%

Strong chance

Over 9.555.8%

Good chance

Over 10.545.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.535.7%

Toss-up

Most cornersStoke62.7%Charlton27.5%

Shots markets

Over 22.562.7%

Strong chance

Over 24.550.1%

Good chance

Over 26.537.9%

Toss-up

Over 28.526.9%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.566.6%2.539.3%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.566.6%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

StokeLLLLW
CharltonLWWWD

Last 4 meetings: Stoke 2 · 0 draws · Charlton 2 · 3.0 goals/game.

2026-02-11Charlton 1-0 Stoke
2025-11-25Stoke 3-0 Charlton
2020-02-08Stoke 3-1 Charlton
2019-08-10Charlton 3-1 Stoke

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

StokeCharlton
League position#22 of 24#3 of 24
Record W-D-L1-0-33-1-0
Current streakW1D1
Record, home vs away1-0-11-1-0
Red cards this season10

League averages this season: 2.94 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 67% · BTTS in 73%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Stoke win2.052.72
Draw3.253.33
Charlton win3.503.00
Over 2.5 goals2.102.54
Under 2.5 goals1.731.65

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Stoke win2.72
Draw3.34
Charlton win3.00
Both teams to score2.16

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.13
Over 1.5 goals1.50
Over 2.5 goals2.54
Over 3.5 goals5.19
Stoke most2.72
Charlton most3.00

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.26
Over 8.5 corners1.45
Over 9.5 corners1.73
Over 10.5 corners2.17
Stoke most1.59
Charlton most3.63

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.38
Over 3.5 cards1.93
Over 4.5 cards3.08
Over 5.5 cards5.59
Stoke most3.39
Charlton most2.01

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.49
Over 7.5 SoT1.85
Over 8.5 SoT2.42
Over 9.5 SoT3.33
Stoke most1.76
Charlton most3.28

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.60
Over 24.5 shots2.00
Over 26.5 shots2.64
Over 28.5 shots3.71
Stoke most1.48
Charlton most3.72

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.71
Over 22.5 fouls2.35
Over 24.5 fouls3.52
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 66.9% Over 7.5 54.0% Over 8.5 41.4% Over 9.5 30.0%
Most: Stoke 57.0% Most: Charlton 30.5%
Stoke Over 4.2 46.8% Charlton Over 4.2 28.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 72.5% Over 3.5 51.9% Over 4.5 32.5%
Most: Stoke 29.5% Most: Charlton 49.8%
Stoke Over 1.8 48.3% Charlton Over 1.8 63.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Stoke clean sheet 33.4%
Charlton clean sheet 31.2%
Stoke win to nil 22.3%
Charlton win to nil 20.1%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 36.7% draw 30.0% away 33.3%
double_chance
1X 66.7% 12 70.0% X2 63.3%
dnb
home 52.5% away 47.5%
btts
yes 46.4% no 53.6%
clean_sheet
home 33.5% away 31.3%
win_to_nil
home 22.4% away 20.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.1% home_by_2 10.6% home_by_3plus 5.1%
away_by_1 19.8% away_by_2 9.4% away_by_3plus 4.1%
correct_score
0-0 11.1% 0-1 10.8% 0-2 6.3%
0-3 2.3% 0-4 0.6% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 11.5% 1-1 14.0% 1-2 7.3%
1-3 2.7% 1-4 0.7% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.1% 2-1 7.7% 2-2 4.2%
2-3 1.6% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 2.8% 3-1 3.0% 3-2 1.7%
3-3 0.6% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 0.8% 4-1 0.9% 4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.2%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 14.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 88.9% under_0.5 11.1% over_1.5 66.6%
under_1.5 33.4% over_2.5 39.3% under_2.5 60.7%
over_3.5 19.3% under_3.5 80.8% over_4.5 7.9%
under_4.5 92.1% over_5.5 2.8% under_5.5 97.2%
odd_even
odd 48.1% even 51.9%
team_home
over_0.5 68.8% under_0.5 31.3% over_1.5 32.5%
under_1.5 67.6% over_2.5 11.3% under_2.5 88.7%
team_away
over_0.5 66.5% under_0.5 33.5% over_1.5 29.9%
under_1.5 70.1% over_2.5 9.9% under_2.5 90.1%
most
home 36.7% draw 30.0% away 33.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 5.1% away_+2.5 94.9% home_-1.5 15.7%
away_+1.5 84.3% home_-0.5 36.7% away_+0.5 63.3%
home_+0.5 66.7% away_-0.5 33.3% home_+1.5 86.5%
away_-1.5 13.5% home_+2.5 95.9% away_-2.5 4.1%
total_exact
exact_0 11.1% exact_1 22.3% exact_2 27.3%
exact_3 20.1% exact_4 11.3% exact_5 5.1%
exact_6 1.9% exact_7plus 0.9%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 33.7% draw 48.9% away 17.4%
total
over_0.5 59.1% under_0.5 40.9% over_1.5 22.6%
under_1.5 77.4% over_2.5 6.2% under_2.5 93.8%
btts
yes 12.1% no 87.9%
total_exact
exact_0 40.9% exact_1 36.6% exact_2 16.4%
exact_3 4.9% exact_4plus 1.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 22.6% draw 38.7% away 38.7%
total
over_0.5 73.9% under_0.5 26.1% over_1.5 38.8%
under_1.5 61.2% over_2.5 15.3% under_2.5 84.7%
btts
yes 23.0% no 77.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 23.0% H/D 7.3% H/A 3.5%
D/H 11.0% D/D 18.9% D/A 18.9%
A/H 0.8% A/D 2.7% A/A 14.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 79.3% under_7.5 20.7% over_8.5 69.1%
under_8.5 30.9% over_9.5 57.7% under_9.5 42.3%
over_10.5 46.0% under_10.5 54.0% over_11.5 35.0%
under_11.5 65.0% over_12.5 25.5% under_12.5 74.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 81.7% under_3.5 18.3% over_4.5 68.8%
under_4.5 31.2% over_5.5 54.4% under_5.5 45.6%
team_away
over_3.5 59.8% under_3.5 40.2% over_4.5 42.3%
under_4.5 57.7% over_5.5 27.5% under_5.5 72.5%
most
home 62.8% draw 9.6% away 27.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 31.9% away_+3.5 68.1% home_-1.5 52.4%
away_+1.5 47.6% home_-0.5 62.8% away_+0.5 37.2%
home_+0.5 72.5% away_-0.5 27.5% home_+1.5 80.7%
away_-1.5 19.3% home_+3.5 92.0% away_-3.5 8.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 62.7% under_22.5 37.3% over_24.5 50.1%
under_24.5 49.9% over_26.5 37.9% under_26.5 62.1%
over_28.5 26.9% under_28.5 73.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 76.2% under_10.5 23.8% over_12.5 60.7%
under_12.5 39.3% over_14.5 44.4% under_14.5 55.6%
team_away
over_10.5 48.8% under_10.5 51.2% over_12.5 30.9%
under_12.5 69.1% over_14.5 17.6% under_14.5 82.4%
most
home 67.6% draw 5.6% away 26.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 42.6% away_+4.5 57.4% home_-2.5 55.3%
away_+2.5 44.7% home_-0.5 67.6% away_+0.5 32.4%
home_+0.5 73.1% away_-0.5 26.9% home_+2.5 82.6%
away_-2.5 17.4% home_+4.5 89.6% away_-4.5 10.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 66.9% under_6.5 33.1% over_7.5 54.0%
under_7.5 46.0% over_8.5 41.3% under_8.5 58.7%
over_9.5 30.0% under_9.5 70.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 64.1% under_3.5 35.9% over_4.5 46.8%
under_4.5 53.2% over_5.5 31.5% under_5.5 68.5%
team_away
over_3.5 45.2% under_3.5 54.8% over_4.5 28.0%
under_4.5 72.0% over_5.5 15.7% under_5.5 84.3%
most
home 57.0% draw 12.6% away 30.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 31.4% away_+2.5 68.6% home_-0.5 57.0%
away_+0.5 43.1% home_+0.5 69.5% away_-0.5 30.5%
home_+2.5 88.0% away_-2.5 12.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 72.5% under_2.5 27.5% over_3.5 51.9%
under_3.5 48.1% over_4.5 32.5% under_4.5 67.5%
over_5.5 17.9% under_5.5 82.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 48.3% under_1.5 51.7% over_2.5 22.3%
under_2.5 77.7%
team_away
over_1.5 63.1% under_1.5 37.0% over_2.5 36.1%
under_2.5 63.9%
most
home 29.5% draw 20.8% away 49.8%
handicap
home_-1.5 14.1% away_+1.5 86.0% home_-0.5 29.5%
away_+0.5 70.5% home_+0.5 50.2% away_-0.5 49.8%
home_+1.5 70.6% away_-1.5 29.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 58.4% under_20.5 41.6% over_22.5 42.6%
under_22.5 57.4% over_24.5 28.4% under_24.5 71.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 57.6% under_9.5 42.4% over_11.5 35.2%
under_11.5 64.9% over_13.5 18.0% under_13.5 82.0%
team_away
over_9.5 68.2% under_9.5 31.8% over_11.5 46.5%
under_11.5 53.5% over_13.5 27.0% under_13.5 73.0%
most
home 38.0% draw 7.8% away 54.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 18.2% away_+3.5 81.8% home_-0.5 38.0%
away_+0.5 62.0% home_+2.5 61.7% away_-2.5 38.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 12.3% no 87.7%
home
yes 11.7% no 88.3%
away
yes 0.7% no 99.3%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Stoke predictions · Charlton predictions · Championship

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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