Goztep vs Gaziantep prediction & probabilities (2026-09-07)

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Goztep vs Gaziantep: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Süper Lig
Goztep

WLDLL

Full time2-4Mon, 7 Sep 202618:00UK
Gaziantep

LLDWL

Model’s top convictions

77%

Over 1.5 goals

77%

Goztep or draw

56%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time8 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Goztep 2-4 Gaziantep
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✕ Red card
8 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Goztep at 52.0%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 52.9% and it landed (6 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 77.3% and it landed (6 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 69.4% and it missed (6 goals). We called Yes at 54.5% and it landed. We called Yes at 72.4% and it landed. We called Yes at 76.9% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 54.0% and it missed (11 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 71.1% and it landed (5 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 55.2% and it landed (32 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 61.8% and it landed (10 shots on target). We called No at 78.2% and it missed.

Match data Goztep Gaziantep
Goals, 1st half 0 4
Goals, 2nd half 2 0
Shots 19 13
Shots on target 4 6
Corners 8 3
Yellow cards 3 2
Red cards 1 0
Fouls 18 10

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
GoztepWin probability
52.0%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals77.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.29
Goztep or draw77.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.30
Over 8.5 corners55.9%Good chancePays @ 1.79

Model read

▾

The numbers leave little room for romance here: Goztep at 52% against Gaziantep, Süper Lig, 7 September 2026. Three things stand out in the data: 1) The market broadly agrees, pricing Goztep at 52%. 2) No strong lean on goals (53% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) Form guide over the last six: Goztep W1 D2 L3, Gaziantep W1 D1 L4. The recent series reads 2 wins for Goztep, 2 draws and 1 for Gaziantep over 5 games, 2.2 goals on average. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.003 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners45.2%@ 2.21
Over 10.5 corners35.3%@ 2.83
Medium risk

Both teams to score54.5%@ 1.83
Over 2.5 goals52.9%@ 1.89
Draw or Gaziantep48.0%@ 2.08
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.9%@ 8.43
1-0 correct score10.0%@ 10.02
2-1 correct score9.7%@ 10.29

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Goztep

52.0%-0.1%

Draw

25.0%+0.3%

Gaziantep

23.0%-0.2%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.003 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.577.3%

Strong chance

Over 2.552.9%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes54.5%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.555.9%

Good chance

Over 9.545.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.535.3%

Toss-up

Over 11.526.7%

Low chance

Most cornersGoztep56.3%Gaziantep33.0%

Shots markets

Over 22.567.1%

Strong chance

Over 24.555.2%

Good chance

Over 26.543.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.532.0%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.577.3%2.552.9%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.577.3%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

GoztepWLDLL
GaziantepLLDWL

Last 5 meetings: Goztep 2 · 2 draws · Gaziantep 1 · 2.2 goals/game.

2026-05-09Goztep 2-1 Gaziantep
2025-12-14Gaziantep 0-1 Goztep
2025-04-07Goztep 1-1 Gaziantep
2024-11-01Gaziantep 2-1 Goztep
2022-04-23Gaziantep 1-1 Goztep

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

GoztepGaziantep
League position#15 of 18#13 of 18
Record W-D-L0-1-21-1-1
Current streakL2L1
Record, home vs away0-0-11-0-0
Red cards this season01

League averages this season: 2.81 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 48% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Goztep win1.791.92
Draw3.604.00
Gaziantep win3.804.35
Over 2.5 goals1.801.89
Under 2.5 goals2.002.12

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Goztep win1.92
Draw4.00
Gaziantep win4.34
Both teams to score1.83

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.29
Over 2.5 goals1.89
Over 3.5 goals3.26
Goztep most1.92
Gaziantep most4.34

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.43
Over 8.5 corners1.72
Over 9.5 corners2.18
Over 10.5 corners2.89
Goztep most1.77
Gaziantep most3.02

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.16
Over 3.5 cards1.41
Over 4.5 cards1.89
Over 5.5 cards2.82
Goztep most2.65
Gaziantep most2.29

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.36
Over 7.5 SoT1.62
Over 8.5 SoT2.02
Over 9.5 SoT2.65
Goztep most1.58
Gaziantep most3.92

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.49
Over 24.5 shots1.81
Over 26.5 shots2.31
Over 28.5 shots3.12
Goztep most1.50
Gaziantep most3.57

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.11
Over 22.5 fouls1.23
Over 24.5 fouls1.44
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 73.5% Over 7.5 61.8% Over 8.5 49.4% Over 9.5 37.7%
Most: Goztep 63.3% Most: Gaziantep 25.5%
Goztep Over 4.2 56.5% Gaziantep Over 4.2 28.8%

Cards

Over 2.5 86.0% Over 3.5 71.0% Over 4.5 52.9%
Most: Goztep 37.7% Most: Gaziantep 43.6%
Goztep Over 1.8 67.7% Gaziantep Over 1.8 71.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Goztep clean sheet 34.0%
Gaziantep clean sheet 17.9%
Goztep win to nil 27.3%
Gaziantep win to nil 11.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 52.0% draw 25.0% away 23.0%
double_chance
1X 77.0% 12 75.0% X2 48.0%
dnb
home 69.3% away 30.7%
btts
yes 54.5% no 45.5%
clean_sheet
home 34.3% away 17.9%
win_to_nil
home 27.6% away 11.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.2% home_by_2 16.1% home_by_3plus 12.7%
away_by_1 14.2% away_by_2 6.2% away_by_3plus 2.6%
correct_score
0-0 6.7% 0-1 6.0% 0-2 3.5%
0-3 1.3% 0-4 0.3% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 10.0% 1-1 11.9% 1-2 6.1%
1-3 2.2% 1-4 0.6% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.1% 2-1 9.7% 2-2 5.2%
2-3 1.9% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 5.2% 3-1 5.6% 3-2 3.0%
3-3 1.1% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 2.2% 4-1 2.4% 4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.8% 5-1 0.8% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.9%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.3% under_0.5 6.7% over_1.5 77.3%
under_1.5 22.7% over_2.5 52.9% under_2.5 47.1%
over_3.5 30.6% under_3.5 69.4% over_4.5 15.1%
under_4.5 84.9% over_5.5 6.5% under_5.5 93.5%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 82.1% under_0.5 17.9% over_1.5 51.3%
under_1.5 48.7% over_2.5 24.8% under_2.5 75.2%
team_away
over_0.5 65.8% under_0.5 34.3% over_1.5 29.0%
under_1.5 71.0% over_2.5 9.4% under_2.5 90.6%
most
home 52.0% draw 25.0% away 23.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 12.7% away_+2.5 87.3% home_-1.5 28.8%
away_+1.5 71.2% home_-0.5 52.0% away_+0.5 48.0%
home_+0.5 77.0% away_-0.5 23.0% home_+1.5 91.2%
away_-1.5 8.8% home_+2.5 97.5% away_-2.5 2.6%
total_exact
exact_0 6.7% exact_1 16.0% exact_2 24.5%
exact_3 22.2% exact_4 15.5% exact_5 8.7%
exact_6 4.0% exact_7plus 2.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 45.9% draw 38.3% away 15.8%
total
over_0.5 72.4% under_0.5 27.6% over_1.5 36.9%
under_1.5 63.1% over_2.5 14.0% under_2.5 86.0%
btts
yes 19.3% no 80.7%
total_exact
exact_0 27.6% exact_1 35.5% exact_2 22.9%
exact_3 9.8% exact_4plus 4.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 35.2% draw 37.2% away 27.7%
total
over_0.5 76.9% under_0.5 23.2% over_1.5 43.0%
under_1.5 57.0% over_2.5 18.2% under_2.5 81.8%
btts
yes 26.7% no 73.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 36.8% H/D 6.6% H/A 2.5%
D/H 13.5% D/D 14.2% D/A 10.6%
A/H 1.6% A/D 3.3% A/A 11.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 70.0% under_7.5 30.0% over_8.5 58.1%
under_8.5 41.9% over_9.5 46.0% under_9.5 54.0%
over_10.5 34.6% under_10.5 65.4% over_11.5 24.8%
under_11.5 75.2% over_12.5 17.0% under_12.5 83.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.5% under_3.5 27.5% over_4.5 57.4%
under_4.5 42.6% over_5.5 42.3% under_5.5 57.7%
team_away
over_3.5 56.5% under_3.5 43.5% over_4.5 39.4%
under_4.5 60.6% over_5.5 25.3% under_5.5 74.7%
most
home 56.4% draw 10.5% away 33.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.6% away_+3.5 74.4% home_-1.5 45.5%
away_+1.5 54.5% home_-0.5 56.4% away_+0.5 43.6%
home_+0.5 66.9% away_-0.5 33.1% home_+1.5 76.3%
away_-1.5 23.7% home_+3.5 89.6% away_-3.5 10.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 67.1% under_22.5 32.9% over_24.5 55.2%
under_24.5 44.8% over_26.5 43.2% under_26.5 56.8%
over_28.5 32.0% under_28.5 68.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 77.9% under_10.5 22.1% over_12.5 63.4%
under_12.5 36.6% over_14.5 47.7% under_14.5 52.3%
team_away
over_10.5 52.8% under_10.5 47.2% over_12.5 35.2%
under_12.5 64.8% over_14.5 21.3% under_14.5 78.7%
most
home 66.6% draw 5.4% away 28.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 42.7% away_+4.5 57.3% home_-2.5 54.8%
away_+2.5 45.2% home_-0.5 66.6% away_+0.5 33.4%
home_+0.5 72.0% away_-0.5 28.1% home_+2.5 81.3%
away_-2.5 18.7% home_+4.5 88.4% away_-4.5 11.6%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 73.5% under_6.5 26.5% over_7.5 61.8%
under_7.5 38.2% over_8.5 49.4% under_8.5 50.6%
over_9.5 37.7% under_9.5 62.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.3% under_3.5 27.7% over_4.5 56.5%
under_4.5 43.5% over_5.5 41.0% under_5.5 59.0%
team_away
over_3.5 46.0% under_3.5 54.0% over_4.5 28.8%
under_4.5 71.2% over_5.5 16.3% under_5.5 83.7%
most
home 63.3% draw 11.3% away 25.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 38.5% away_+2.5 61.5% home_-0.5 63.3%
away_+0.5 36.7% home_+0.5 74.5% away_-0.5 25.5%
home_+2.5 90.3% away_-2.5 9.7%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 86.0% under_2.5 14.0% over_3.5 71.1%
under_3.5 29.0% over_4.5 52.9% under_4.5 47.1%
over_5.5 35.4% under_5.5 64.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 67.7% under_1.5 32.4% over_2.5 41.3%
under_2.5 58.8%
team_away
over_1.5 71.3% under_1.5 28.7% over_2.5 45.6%
under_2.5 54.4%
most
home 37.7% draw 18.7% away 43.6%
handicap
home_-1.5 21.7% away_+1.5 78.3% home_-0.5 37.7%
away_+0.5 62.3% home_+0.5 56.4% away_-0.5 43.6%
home_+1.5 73.5% away_-1.5 26.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 89.9% under_20.5 10.1% over_22.5 81.2%
under_22.5 18.8% over_24.5 69.5% under_24.5 30.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 94.5% under_9.5 5.5% over_11.5 85.5%
under_11.5 14.5% over_13.5 71.0% under_13.5 29.0%
team_away
over_9.5 69.6% under_9.5 30.4% over_11.5 47.7%
under_11.5 52.3% over_13.5 27.6% under_13.5 72.4%
most
home 76.3% draw 5.2% away 18.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 56.8% away_+3.5 43.2% home_-0.5 76.3%
away_+0.5 23.7% home_+2.5 89.6% away_-2.5 10.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 21.8% no 78.2%
home
yes 4.7% no 95.3%
away
yes 18.0% no 82.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Goztep predictions · Gaziantep predictions · Süper Lig

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Süper LigGoztepGaziantepTrack record