Trabzonspor vs Genclerbirligi prediction & probabilities (2026-09-06)

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Trabzonspor vs Genclerbirligi: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Süper Lig
Trabzonspor

WLDWL

Full time5-0Sun, 6 Sep 202618:00UK
Genclerbirligi

WWWWD

Model’s top convictions

80%

Trabzonspor or draw

76%

Over 1.5 goals

55%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time9 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Trabzonspor 5-0 Genclerbirligi
✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
10 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Trabzonspor at 54.9%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 50.5% and it landed (5 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 75.6% and it landed (5 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 71.6% and it missed (5 goals). We called Yes at 51.4% and it missed. We called Yes at 74.7% and it landed. We called Yes at 71.2% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 54.8% and it landed (9 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 63.5% and it landed (4 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 54.3% and it landed (37 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 61.5% and it landed (19 shots on target). We called No at 81.2% and it landed.

Match data Trabzonspor Genclerbirligi
Goals, 1st half 3 0
Goals, 2nd half 2 0
Shots 23 14
Shots on target 13 6
Corners 6 3
Yellow cards 3 1
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 12 12

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
TrabzonsporWin probability
54.9%
Top 3 convictions

Trabzonspor or draw79.7%High probabilityPays @ 1.25
Over 1.5 goals75.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.32
Over 8.5 corners55.2%Good chancePays @ 1.81

Model read

▾

"55% on Trabzonspor is a measurement, not a promise." The numbers leave little room for romance here: Trabzonspor at 55% against Genclerbirligi, Süper Lig, 6 September 2026. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Trabzonspor higher (63%) than our model does. No strong lean on goals (50% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Form guide over the last six: Trabzonspor W2 D2 L2, Genclerbirligi W4 D1 L1. Schedule edge: Genclerbirligi have had 3 more days of rest than Trabzonspor. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 3 wins for Trabzonspor, 0 draws and 2 for Genclerbirligi, averaging 3.6 goals a game. The engine passes on this one (conservative EV -0.023 <= 0).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Draw or Genclerbirligi45.1%@ 2.22
Over 9.5 corners44.5%@ 2.25
Over 10.5 corners34.6%@ 2.89
Medium risk

Both teams to score51.4%@ 1.95
Over 2.5 goals50.5%@ 1.98
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.8%@ 8.45
1-0 correct score11.2%@ 8.97
2-0 correct score10.1%@ 9.88

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Trabzonspor

54.9%-8.0%

Draw

24.8%+3.0%

GEN

20.3%+5.1%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.023 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.575.5%

Strong chance

Over 2.550.5%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes51.4%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.555.2%

Good chance

Over 9.544.5%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.534.6%

Toss-up

Over 11.526.1%

Low chance

Most cornersTrabzonspor54.3%Genclerbirligi34.8%

Shots markets

Over 22.566.2%

Strong chance

Over 24.554.3%

Good chance

Over 26.542.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.531.2%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.575.5%2.550.5%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.575.5%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

TrabzonsporWLDWL
GenclerbirligiWWWWD

Last 5 meetings: Trabzonspor 3 · 0 draws · Genclerbirligi 2 · 3.6 goals/game.

2026-05-17Trabzonspor 0-3 Genclerbirligi
2025-12-22Genclerbirligi 4-3 Trabzonspor
2021-05-15Trabzonspor 2-1 Genclerbirligi
2021-01-23Genclerbirligi 1-2 Trabzonspor
2020-02-08Genclerbirligi 0-2 Trabzonspor

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

TrabzonsporGenclerbirligi
League position#11 of 18#2 of 18
Record W-D-L1-1-12-1-0
Current streakL1D1
Record, home vs away1-0-01-0-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.81 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 48% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Trabzonspor win1.491.82
Draw4.004.03
Genclerbirligi win5.504.93
Over 2.5 goals1.731.98
Under 2.5 goals2.082.02

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Trabzonspor win1.82
Draw4.03
Genclerbirligi win4.93
Both teams to score1.95

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.32
Over 2.5 goals1.98
Over 3.5 goals3.51
Trabzonspor most1.82
Genclerbirligi most4.93

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.44
Over 8.5 corners1.74
Over 9.5 corners2.21
Over 10.5 corners2.95
Trabzonspor most1.84
Genclerbirligi most2.87

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.23
Over 3.5 cards1.57
Over 4.5 cards2.26
Over 5.5 cards3.64
Trabzonspor most3.27
Genclerbirligi most1.99

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.36
Over 7.5 SoT1.63
Over 8.5 SoT2.04
Over 9.5 SoT2.67
Trabzonspor most1.56
Genclerbirligi most4.04

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.51
Over 24.5 shots1.84
Over 26.5 shots2.36
Over 28.5 shots3.20
Trabzonspor most1.54
Genclerbirligi most3.39

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.18
Over 22.5 fouls1.35
Over 24.5 fouls1.65
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 73.3% Over 7.5 61.5% Over 8.5 49.1% Over 9.5 37.4%
Most: Trabzonspor 64.1% Most: Genclerbirligi 24.7%
Trabzonspor Over 4.2 56.8% Genclerbirligi Over 4.2 27.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 81.1% Over 3.5 63.5% Over 4.5 44.3%
Most: Trabzonspor 30.6% Most: Genclerbirligi 50.2%
Trabzonspor Over 1.8 57.1% Genclerbirligi Over 1.8 70.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Trabzonspor clean sheet 37.9%
Genclerbirligi clean sheet 17.8%
Trabzonspor win to nil 30.5%
Genclerbirligi win to nil 10.4%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 54.9% draw 24.8% away 20.3%
double_chance
1X 79.7% 12 75.2% X2 45.1%
dnb
home 73.0% away 27.0%
btts
yes 51.4% no 48.6%
clean_sheet
home 38.2% away 17.7%
win_to_nil
home 30.9% away 10.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1 24.0% home_by_2 17.1% home_by_3plus 13.8%
away_by_1 13.1% away_by_2 5.3% away_by_3plus 1.9%
correct_score
0-0 7.4% 0-1 6.0% 0-2 3.1%
0-3 1.0% 0-4 0.2% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 11.2% 1-1 11.8% 1-2 5.4%
1-3 1.7% 1-4 0.4% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 10.1% 2-1 9.7% 2-2 4.7%
2-3 1.5% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 5.8% 3-1 5.6% 3-2 2.7%
3-3 0.9% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 2.5% 4-1 2.4% 4-2 1.2%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.9% 5-1 0.9% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.9%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.7% under_0.5 7.4% over_1.5 75.6%
under_1.5 24.5% over_2.5 50.5% under_2.5 49.5%
over_3.5 28.4% under_3.5 71.6% over_4.5 13.6%
under_4.5 86.4% over_5.5 5.6% under_5.5 94.4%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 82.3% under_0.5 17.7% over_1.5 51.6%
under_1.5 48.4% over_2.5 25.1% under_2.5 74.9%
team_away
over_0.5 61.8% under_0.5 38.2% over_1.5 25.0%
under_1.5 75.0% over_2.5 7.4% under_2.5 92.7%
most
home 54.9% draw 24.8% away 20.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 13.8% away_+2.5 86.2% home_-1.5 30.9%
away_+1.5 69.1% home_-0.5 54.9% away_+0.5 45.1%
home_+0.5 79.7% away_-0.5 20.3% home_+1.5 92.8%
away_-1.5 7.2% home_+2.5 98.1% away_-2.5 1.9%
total_exact
exact_0 7.4% exact_1 17.1% exact_2 25.1%
exact_3 22.0% exact_4 14.8% exact_5 8.0%
exact_6 3.6% exact_7plus 2.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 43.5% draw 37.4% away 19.1%
total
over_0.5 74.7% under_0.5 25.3% over_1.5 40.0%
under_1.5 60.0% over_2.5 16.1% under_2.5 83.9%
btts
yes 22.7% no 77.4%
total_exact
exact_0 25.3% exact_1 34.8% exact_2 23.9%
exact_3 11.0% exact_4plus 5.1%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 39.4% draw 40.3% away 20.3%
total
over_0.5 71.2% under_0.5 28.8% over_1.5 35.4%
under_1.5 64.6% over_2.5 13.1% under_2.5 87.0%
btts
yes 20.2% no 79.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 37.4% H/D 4.9% H/A 1.2%
D/H 14.8% D/D 15.1% D/A 7.6%
A/H 2.0% A/D 4.4% A/A 12.7%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 69.4% under_7.5 30.6% over_8.5 57.4%
under_8.5 42.6% over_9.5 45.2% under_9.5 54.8%
over_10.5 33.9% under_10.5 66.1% over_11.5 24.2%
under_11.5 75.8% over_12.5 16.5% under_12.5 83.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 71.0% under_3.5 29.0% over_4.5 55.5%
under_4.5 44.5% over_5.5 40.4% under_5.5 59.6%
team_away
over_3.5 57.5% under_3.5 42.5% over_4.5 40.5%
under_4.5 59.5% over_5.5 26.2% under_5.5 73.8%
most
home 54.4% draw 10.7% away 34.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.9% away_+3.5 76.1% home_-1.5 43.4%
away_+1.5 56.6% home_-0.5 54.4% away_+0.5 45.6%
home_+0.5 65.1% away_-0.5 34.9% home_+1.5 74.7%
away_-1.5 25.3% home_+3.5 88.8% away_-3.5 11.2%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 66.2% under_22.5 33.8% over_24.5 54.3%
under_24.5 45.7% over_26.5 42.3% under_26.5 57.7%
over_28.5 31.2% under_28.5 68.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 76.6% under_10.5 23.4% over_12.5 61.7%
under_12.5 38.3% over_14.5 45.9% under_14.5 54.1%
team_away
over_10.5 53.4% under_10.5 46.6% over_12.5 35.9%
under_12.5 64.1% over_14.5 21.8% under_14.5 78.2%
most
home 65.0% draw 5.5% away 29.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 40.9% away_+4.5 59.1% home_-2.5 53.1%
away_+2.5 46.9% home_-0.5 65.0% away_+0.5 35.0%
home_+0.5 70.5% away_-0.5 29.5% home_+2.5 80.1%
away_-2.5 19.9% home_+4.5 87.5% away_-4.5 12.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 73.3% under_6.5 26.7% over_7.5 61.5%
under_7.5 38.5% over_8.5 49.1% under_8.5 50.9%
over_9.5 37.4% under_9.5 62.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.6% under_3.5 27.4% over_4.5 56.8%
under_4.5 43.2% over_5.5 41.3% under_5.5 58.7%
team_away
over_3.5 45.1% under_3.5 54.9% over_4.5 27.9%
under_4.5 72.1% over_5.5 15.7% under_5.5 84.3%
most
home 64.1% draw 11.2% away 24.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 39.3% away_+2.5 60.7% home_-0.5 64.1%
away_+0.5 35.9% home_+0.5 75.3% away_-0.5 24.8%
home_+2.5 90.7% away_-2.5 9.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 81.1% under_2.5 18.9% over_3.5 63.5%
under_3.5 36.5% over_4.5 44.3% under_4.5 55.7%
over_5.5 27.5% under_5.5 72.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 57.1% under_1.5 42.9% over_2.5 30.1%
under_2.5 69.9%
team_away
over_1.5 70.3% under_1.5 29.7% over_2.5 44.4%
under_2.5 55.6%
most
home 30.6% draw 19.2% away 50.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 15.8% away_+1.5 84.2% home_-0.5 30.6%
away_+0.5 69.4% home_+0.5 49.8% away_-0.5 50.2%
home_+1.5 68.8% away_-1.5 31.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 85.0% under_20.5 15.0% over_22.5 74.1%
under_22.5 25.9% over_24.5 60.5% under_24.5 39.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 80.5% under_9.5 19.5% over_11.5 61.7%
under_11.5 38.3% over_13.5 41.0% under_13.5 59.0%
team_away
over_9.5 83.6% under_9.5 16.4% over_11.5 66.3%
under_11.5 33.7% over_13.5 46.0% under_13.5 54.0%
most
home 42.8% draw 7.3% away 49.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.1% away_+3.5 76.9% home_-0.5 42.8%
away_+0.5 57.2% home_+2.5 64.6% away_-2.5 35.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 18.8% no 81.2%
home
yes 4.2% no 95.8%
away
yes 15.2% no 84.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Trabzonspor predictions · Genclerbirligi predictions · Süper Lig

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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More on this match

Süper LigTrabzonsporGenclerbirligiTrack record