Telstar vs Cambuur prediction & probabilities (2026-09-06)

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Telstar vs Cambuur: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Eredivisie
Telstar

WWWLL

Full time2-2Sun, 6 Sep 202613:30UK
Cambuur

WLLLL

Model’s top convictions

84%

Over 1.5 goals

74%

Telstar or draw

67%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time4 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Telstar 2-2 Cambuur
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✕ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✕ Red card
4 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Telstar at 51.0%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 63.1% and it landed (4 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 84.1% and it landed (4 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 59.0% and it missed (4 goals). We called Yes at 63.3% and it landed. We called Yes at 84.3% and it missed. We called Yes at 86.4% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 60.5% and it missed (6 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 69.9% and it missed (7 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 62.8% and it missed (19 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 78.1% and it missed (5 shots on target). We called No at 91.9% and it missed.

Match data Telstar Cambuur
Goals, 1st half 0 0
Goals, 2nd half 2 2
Shots 11 8
Shots on target 2 3
Corners 4 2
Yellow cards 3 4
Red cards 1 0
Fouls 7 20

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
TelstarWin probability
51.0%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals84.1%High probabilityPays @ 1.19
Telstar or draw74.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.35
Over 8.5 corners67.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.49

Model read

▾

"Telstar or Cambuur? We publish probabilities, not certainties." On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Telstar heavy favourites at 51% when Telstar meet Cambuur in the Eredivisie on 6 September 2026. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Telstar higher (59%) than our model does. The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 63% with both teams to score at 63%. Recent form reads W3 D1 L2 for Telstar against W1 D0 L5 for Cambuur. Cambuur are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.19).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners47.6%@ 2.10
Over 11.5 corners38.5%@ 2.60
Medium risk

Over 9.5 corners57.3%@ 1.75
Draw or Cambuur49.0%@ 2.04
Random finds

1-1 correct score10.4%@ 9.65
2-1 correct score9.5%@ 10.52
2-0 correct score7.2%@ 13.95

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Telstar

51.0%-8.4%

Draw

23.1%+1.8%

Cambuur

25.9%+6.6%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.19)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.584.1%

High probability

Over 2.563.1%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes63.3%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.567.0%

Strong chance

Over 9.557.3%

Good chance

Over 10.547.6%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.538.5%

Toss-up

Most cornersTelstar50.8%Cambuur39.3%

Shots markets

Over 22.573.0%

Strong chance

Over 24.562.8%

Strong chance

Over 26.551.9%

Good chance

Over 28.541.0%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.584.1%2.563.1%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 2.563.1%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

TelstarWWWLL
CambuurWLLLL

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

TelstarCambuur
League position#14 of 18#18 of 18
Record W-D-L1-0-20-0-4
Current streakL2L4
Record, home vs away0-0-20-0-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 4.03 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 82% · BTTS in 76%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Telstar win1.621.96
Draw4.334.33
Cambuur win4.753.86
Over 2.5 goals1.441.58
Under 2.5 goals2.702.71

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Telstar win1.96
Draw4.32
Cambuur win3.86
Both teams to score1.58

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.19
Over 2.5 goals1.58
Over 3.5 goals2.44
Over 4.5 goals4.36
Telstar most1.96
Cambuur most3.86

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.23
Over 8.5 corners1.40
Over 9.5 corners1.65
Over 10.5 corners2.04
Telstar most1.96
Cambuur most2.54

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.92
Over 3.5 cards3.32
Over 4.5 cards6.68
Over 5.5 cards15.43
Telstar most3.87
Cambuur most2.01

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.16
Over 7.5 SoT1.28
Over 8.5 SoT1.46
Over 9.5 SoT1.72
Telstar most2.27
Cambuur most2.21

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.37
Over 24.5 shots1.59
Over 26.5 shots1.93
Over 28.5 shots2.44
Telstar most1.86
Cambuur most2.46

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.76
Over 22.5 fouls2.42
Over 24.5 fouls3.60
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 86.1% Over 7.5 78.1% Over 8.5 68.6% Over 9.5 58.1%
Most: Telstar 44.1% Most: Cambuur 45.1%
Telstar Over 4.2 57.0% Cambuur Over 4.2 57.7%

Cards

Over 2.5 52.0% Over 3.5 30.1% Over 4.5 15.0%
Most: Telstar 25.8% Most: Cambuur 49.8%
Telstar Over 1.8 30.5% Cambuur Over 1.8 48.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Telstar clean sheet 26.2%
Cambuur clean sheet 14.5%
Telstar win to nil 21.8%
Cambuur win to nil 10.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 51.0% draw 23.1% away 25.9%
double_chance
1X 74.1% 12 76.9% X2 49.0%
dnb
home 66.3% away 33.7%
btts
yes 63.2% no 36.8%
clean_sheet
home 26.5% away 14.6%
win_to_nil
home 22.2% away 10.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.5% home_by_2 15.6% home_by_3plus 13.9%
away_by_1 14.6% away_by_2 7.4% away_by_3plus 3.8%
correct_score
0-0 4.4% 0-1 4.6% 0-2 3.4%
0-3 1.5% 0-4 0.5% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 7.0% 1-1 10.4% 1-2 6.6%
1-3 2.9% 1-4 1.0% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 7.2% 2-1 9.5% 2-2 6.3%
2-3 2.8% 2-4 0.9% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 4.6% 3-1 6.1% 3-2 4.1%
3-3 1.8% 3-4 0.6% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 2.2% 4-1 2.9% 4-2 2.0%
4-3 0.9% 4-4 0.3% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.9% 5-1 1.1% 5-2 0.8%
5-3 0.3% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 10.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 95.7% under_0.5 4.4% over_1.5 84.1%
under_1.5 15.9% over_2.5 63.1% under_2.5 36.9%
over_3.5 41.0% under_3.5 59.0% over_4.5 22.9%
under_4.5 77.1% over_5.5 11.2% under_5.5 88.8%
odd_even
odd 48.9% even 51.1%
team_home
over_0.5 85.4% under_0.5 14.6% over_1.5 57.4%
under_1.5 42.6% over_2.5 30.4% under_2.5 69.6%
team_away
over_0.5 73.5% under_0.5 26.5% over_1.5 38.3%
under_1.5 61.7% over_2.5 15.0% under_2.5 85.1%
most
home 51.0% draw 23.1% away 25.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 13.9% away_+2.5 86.1% home_-1.5 29.5%
away_+1.5 70.5% home_-0.5 51.0% away_+0.5 49.0%
home_+0.5 74.1% away_-0.5 25.9% home_+1.5 88.8%
away_-1.5 11.3% home_+2.5 96.2% away_-2.5 3.8%
total_exact
exact_0 4.4% exact_1 11.6% exact_2 20.9%
exact_3 22.2% exact_4 18.0% exact_5 11.8%
exact_6 6.4% exact_7plus 4.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 60.5% draw 27.4% away 12.1%
total
over_0.5 84.3% under_0.5 15.7% over_1.5 55.3%
under_1.5 44.7% over_2.5 28.3% under_2.5 71.7%
btts
yes 27.6% no 72.4%
total_exact
exact_0 15.7% exact_1 29.0% exact_2 26.9%
exact_3 16.6% exact_4plus 11.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 39.4% draw 30.7% away 29.9%
total
over_0.5 86.4% under_0.5 13.6% over_1.5 59.2%
under_1.5 40.8% over_2.5 32.1% under_2.5 67.9%
btts
yes 39.5% no 60.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 49.5% H/D 7.4% H/A 3.6%
D/H 10.8% D/D 8.4% D/A 8.2%
A/H 1.7% A/D 2.5% A/A 7.9%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 81.2% under_7.5 18.8% over_8.5 71.5%
under_8.5 28.5% over_9.5 60.5% under_9.5 39.5%
over_10.5 49.1% under_10.5 50.9% over_11.5 38.1%
under_11.5 61.9% over_12.5 28.3% under_12.5 71.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 76.1% under_3.5 23.9% over_4.5 62.1%
under_4.5 37.9% over_5.5 47.7% under_5.5 52.3%
team_away
over_3.5 69.1% under_3.5 30.9% over_4.5 53.5%
under_4.5 46.5% over_5.5 38.7% under_5.5 61.3%
most
home 50.9% draw 9.7% away 39.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.0% away_+3.5 76.0% home_-1.5 41.2%
away_+1.5 58.8% home_-0.5 50.9% away_+0.5 49.1%
home_+0.5 60.6% away_-0.5 39.4% home_+1.5 69.6%
away_-1.5 30.4% home_+3.5 84.2% away_-3.5 15.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 73.0% under_22.5 27.0% over_24.5 62.8%
under_24.5 37.2% over_26.5 51.9% under_26.5 48.1%
over_28.5 41.0% under_28.5 59.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 74.4% under_10.5 25.6% over_12.5 60.1%
under_12.5 39.9% over_14.5 45.3% under_14.5 54.7%
team_away
over_10.5 66.5% under_10.5 33.5% over_12.5 50.8%
under_12.5 49.2% over_14.5 35.9% under_14.5 64.1%
most
home 53.8% draw 5.5% away 40.7%
handicap
home_-4.5 32.1% away_+4.5 67.9% home_-2.5 42.7%
away_+2.5 57.3% home_-0.5 53.8% away_+0.5 46.2%
home_+0.5 59.3% away_-0.5 40.7% home_+2.5 69.7%
away_-2.5 30.3% home_+4.5 78.7% away_-4.5 21.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 86.1% under_6.5 14.0% over_7.5 78.1%
under_7.5 21.9% over_8.5 68.6% under_8.5 31.4%
over_9.5 58.2% under_9.5 41.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.1% under_3.5 27.9% over_4.5 57.0%
under_4.5 43.0% over_5.5 42.1% under_5.5 57.9%
team_away
over_3.5 72.7% under_3.5 27.3% over_4.5 57.7%
under_4.5 42.3% over_5.5 42.9% under_5.5 57.1%
most
home 44.1% draw 10.8% away 45.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 24.6% away_+2.5 75.4% home_-0.5 44.1%
away_+0.5 55.9% home_+0.5 54.9% away_-0.5 45.2%
home_+2.5 74.6% away_-2.5 25.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 52.0% under_2.5 48.0% over_3.5 30.2%
under_3.5 69.9% over_4.5 15.0% under_4.5 85.0%
over_5.5 6.5% under_5.5 93.5%
odd_even
odd 49.8% even 50.2%
team_home
over_1.5 30.6% under_1.5 69.5% over_2.5 10.4%
under_2.5 89.6%
team_away
over_1.5 48.9% under_1.5 51.1% over_2.5 23.2%
under_2.5 76.8%
most
home 25.8% draw 24.3% away 49.8%
handicap
home_-1.5 10.1% away_+1.5 89.9% home_-0.5 25.8%
away_+0.5 74.2% home_+0.5 50.2% away_-0.5 49.8%
home_+1.5 73.3% away_-1.5 26.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 56.7% under_20.5 43.3% over_22.5 41.4%
under_22.5 58.6% over_24.5 27.8% under_24.5 72.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 61.9% under_9.5 38.1% over_11.5 40.2%
under_11.5 59.8% over_13.5 22.4% under_13.5 77.6%
team_away
over_9.5 61.4% under_9.5 38.7% over_11.5 39.7%
under_11.5 60.3% over_13.5 21.9% under_13.5 78.1%
most
home 46.5% draw 7.8% away 45.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.0% away_+3.5 75.0% home_-0.5 46.5%
away_+0.5 53.5% home_+2.5 69.1% away_-2.5 30.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 8.1% no 91.9%
home
yes 2.7% no 97.3%
away
yes 5.6% no 94.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Telstar predictions · Cambuur predictions · Eredivisie

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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EredivisieTelstarCambuurTrack record