Sheffield United vs Bolton: model prediction
ChampionshipSheffield United or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time8 of 11 calls right
Our most likely call was Sheffield United at 57.6%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 50.9% and it landed (5 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 75.9% and it landed (5 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 71.1% and it missed (5 goals). We called Yes at 50.6% and it landed. We called Yes at 63.1% and it landed. We called Yes at 69.9% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 60.6% and it landed (10 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 52.3% and it missed (2 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 50.4% and it missed (31 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 56.6% and it landed (11 shots on target). We called No at 88.6% and it landed.
| Match data | Sheffield United | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| Goals, 1st half | 1 | 1 |
| Goals, 2nd half | 2 | 1 |
| Shots | 13 | 18 |
| Shots on target | 5 | 6 |
| Corners | 5 | 5 |
| Yellow cards | 0 | 2 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 8 | 13 |
Final match data.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
The numbers leave little room for romance here: Sheffield United at 58% against Bolton, Championship, 1 September 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Bookmakers see it the same way, 60% on Sheffield United, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. • Totals sit close to the fence: 51% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 51%. • Bolton are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. • Form guide over the last six: Sheffield United W1 D3 L2, Bolton W1 D1 L4. History adds colour: across the last 4 meetings it is 3 wins for Sheffield United, 0 draws and 1 for Bolton at 1.8 goals per match. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.017 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
57.6%-2.7%
24.0%+1.0%
18.3%+1.7%
value_gap +0.017 <= 0.03
Goals markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Sheffield United 3 · 0 draws · Bolton 1 · 1.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Sheffield UnitedBoltonLeague averages this season: 3.03 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 75% · BTTS in 78%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 69.2% | Over 7.5 | 56.6% | Over 8.5 | 43.9% | Over 9.5 | 32.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Sheffield United | 57.9% | Most: Bolton | 29.8% | ||||
| Sheffield United Over 4.2 | 49.3% | Bolton Over 4.2 | 29.0% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 72.9% | Over 3.5 | 52.3% | Over 4.5 | 32.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Sheffield United | 30.4% | Most: Bolton | 48.7% | ||
| Sheffield United Over 1.8 | 49.4% | Bolton Over 1.8 | 62.7% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Sheffield United clean sheet | 39.6% |
|---|---|
| Bolton clean sheet | 16.6% |
| Sheffield United win to nil | 32.5% |
| Bolton win to nil | 9.4% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 57.6% | draw | 24.1% | away | 18.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 81.7% | 12 | 75.9% | X2 | 42.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 75.9% | away | 24.2% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 50.6% | no | 49.4% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 40.0% | away | 16.6% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 32.9% | away | 9.4% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 24.3% | home_by_2 | 17.9% | home_by_3plus | 15.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 12.1% | away_by_2 | 4.7% | away_by_3plus | 1.6% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 7.2% | 0-1 | 5.5% | 0-2 | 2.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.9% | 0-4 | 0.2% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.4% | 1-1 | 11.5% | 1-2 | 5.0% |
| 1-3 | 1.5% | 1-4 | 0.4% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 10.7% | 2-1 | 9.8% | 2-2 | 4.5% |
| 2-3 | 1.4% | 2-4 | 0.3% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 6.4% | 3-1 | 5.9% | 3-2 | 2.7% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 2.9% | 4-1 | 2.6% | 4-2 | 1.2% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 1.0% | 5-1 | 1.0% | 5-2 | 0.4% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.1% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 11.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 92.8% | under_0.5 | 7.2% | over_1.5 | 75.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 24.1% | over_2.5 | 50.9% | under_2.5 | 49.1% |
| over_3.5 | 28.9% | under_3.5 | 71.1% | over_4.5 | 13.9% |
| under_4.5 | 86.1% | over_5.5 | 5.8% | under_5.5 | 94.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.7% | even | 51.3% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 83.4% | under_0.5 | 16.6% | over_1.5 | 53.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 46.4% | over_2.5 | 26.9% | under_2.5 | 73.1% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 60.0% | under_0.5 | 40.0% | over_1.5 | 23.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 76.7% | over_2.5 | 6.5% | under_2.5 | 93.5% |
most
| home | 57.6% | draw | 24.1% | away | 18.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 15.4% | away_+2.5 | 84.6% | home_-1.5 | 33.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 66.7% | home_-0.5 | 57.6% | away_+0.5 | 42.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 81.7% | away_-0.5 | 18.3% | home_+1.5 | 93.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 6.2% | home_+2.5 | 98.4% | away_-2.5 | 1.6% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 7.2% | exact_1 | 16.9% | exact_2 | 25.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.1% | exact_4 | 15.0% | exact_5 | 8.1% |
| exact_6 | 3.7% | exact_7plus | 2.1% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 25.1% | draw | 46.6% | away | 28.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 63.1% | under_0.5 | 36.9% | over_1.5 | 26.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 73.6% | over_2.5 | 8.0% | under_2.5 | 92.0% |
btts
| yes | 15.4% | no | 84.6% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 36.9% | exact_1 | 36.8% | exact_2 | 18.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 6.1% | exact_4plus | 1.9% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 41.3% | draw | 40.8% | away | 17.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 69.9% | under_0.5 | 30.1% | over_1.5 | 33.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 66.3% | over_2.5 | 12.0% | under_2.5 | 87.9% |
btts
| yes | 18.5% | no | 81.6% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 21.4% | H/D | 3.0% | H/A | 0.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 19.3% | D/D | 19.0% | D/A | 8.4% |
| A/H | 3.1% | A/D | 6.6% | A/A | 18.5% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 81.4% | under_7.5 | 18.6% | over_8.5 | 71.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 28.3% | over_9.5 | 60.6% | under_9.5 | 39.4% |
| over_10.5 | 49.0% | under_10.5 | 51.0% | over_11.5 | 37.9% |
| under_11.5 | 62.1% | over_12.5 | 28.0% | under_12.5 | 72.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 82.0% | under_3.5 | 18.1% | over_4.5 | 69.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 30.9% | over_5.5 | 54.8% | under_5.5 | 45.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 63.5% | under_3.5 | 36.5% | over_4.5 | 46.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 53.7% | over_5.5 | 31.1% | under_5.5 | 68.9% |
most
| home | 60.6% | draw | 9.7% | away | 29.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 30.2% | away_+3.5 | 69.8% | home_-1.5 | 50.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 49.8% | home_-0.5 | 60.6% | away_+0.5 | 39.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.3% | away_-0.5 | 29.7% | home_+1.5 | 78.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 21.2% | home_+3.5 | 90.8% | away_-3.5 | 9.2% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 62.2% | under_22.5 | 37.8% | over_24.5 | 49.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 50.4% | over_26.5 | 37.4% | under_26.5 | 62.6% |
| over_28.5 | 26.6% | under_28.5 | 73.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 74.8% | under_10.5 | 25.2% | over_12.5 | 58.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 41.1% | over_14.5 | 42.5% | under_14.5 | 57.5% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 50.1% | under_10.5 | 49.9% | over_12.5 | 32.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 67.8% | over_14.5 | 18.5% | under_14.5 | 81.5% |
most
| home | 65.5% | draw | 5.7% | away | 28.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 40.4% | away_+4.5 | 59.6% | home_-2.5 | 53.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 46.9% | home_-0.5 | 65.5% | away_+0.5 | 34.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.2% | away_-0.5 | 28.8% | home_+2.5 | 81.1% |
| away_-2.5 | 18.9% | home_+4.5 | 88.5% | away_-4.5 | 11.5% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 69.2% | under_6.5 | 30.8% | over_7.5 | 56.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 43.4% | over_8.5 | 43.9% | under_8.5 | 56.1% |
| over_9.5 | 32.4% | under_9.5 | 67.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 66.3% | under_3.5 | 33.7% | over_4.5 | 49.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 50.7% | over_5.5 | 33.7% | under_5.5 | 66.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 46.4% | under_3.5 | 53.6% | over_4.5 | 29.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 71.0% | over_5.5 | 16.4% | under_5.5 | 83.6% |
most
| home | 57.9% | draw | 12.3% | away | 29.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 32.6% | away_+2.5 | 67.4% | home_-0.5 | 57.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 42.1% | home_+0.5 | 70.2% | away_-0.5 | 29.8% |
| home_+2.5 | 88.2% | away_-2.5 | 11.8% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 72.9% | under_2.5 | 27.1% | over_3.5 | 52.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 47.7% | over_4.5 | 32.9% | under_4.5 | 67.1% |
| over_5.5 | 18.2% | under_5.5 | 81.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 49.4% | under_1.5 | 50.6% | over_2.5 | 23.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 76.8% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 62.7% | under_1.5 | 37.3% | over_2.5 | 35.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 64.3% |
most
| home | 30.4% | draw | 20.8% | away | 48.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 14.7% | away_+1.5 | 85.3% | home_-0.5 | 30.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 69.6% | home_+0.5 | 51.3% | away_-0.5 | 48.7% |
| home_+1.5 | 71.4% | away_-1.5 | 28.6% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 56.3% | under_20.5 | 43.8% | over_22.5 | 40.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 59.5% | over_24.5 | 26.6% | under_24.5 | 73.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 56.1% | under_9.5 | 44.0% | over_11.5 | 33.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 66.3% | over_13.5 | 17.0% | under_13.5 | 83.1% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 66.9% | under_9.5 | 33.1% | over_11.5 | 45.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 55.0% | over_13.5 | 25.7% | under_13.5 | 74.3% |
most
| home | 38.0% | draw | 7.9% | away | 54.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 18.1% | away_+3.5 | 81.9% | home_-0.5 | 38.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 62.0% | home_+2.5 | 61.8% | away_-2.5 | 38.2% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 11.4% | no | 88.6% |
|---|
home
| yes | 5.3% | no | 94.7% |
|---|
away
| yes | 6.4% | no | 93.6% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Sheffield United predictions · Bolton predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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