Sociedad vs Celta: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 2 Sep 2026

La Liga

Sociedad

LDLLW

Full time0-0Thu, 3 Sep 202620:00UK24°C · Clear

Celta

DWDLL

Model’s top convictions

78%

Over 1.5 goals

73%

Sociedad or draw

57%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time4 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Sociedad 0-0 Celta

✕ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✕ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✕ First-half goal✕ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card

4 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Sociedad at 48.4%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 53.2% and it missed (0 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 77.6% and it missed (0 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 69.0% and it landed (0 goals). We called Yes at 56.4% and it missed. We called Yes at 72.2% and it missed. We called Yes at 80.1% and it missed. We called Under 9.5 at 53.3% and it missed (14 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 63.6% and it landed (5 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 55.7% and it landed (23 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 60.7% and it missed (7 shots on target). We called No at 81.9% and it landed.

Match data	Sociedad	Celta
Goals, 1st half	0	0
Goals, 2nd half	0	0
Shots	16	7
Shots, 1st half	7	3
Shots, 2nd half	9	4
Shots on target	5	2
Corners	11	3
Yellow cards	2	3
Red cards	0	0
Fouls	15	11
Expected goals (xG)	1.02	0.63

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

SociedadWin probability

48.4%

Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals77.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.29

Sociedad or draw72.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.38

Over 8.5 corners56.9%Good chancePays @ 1.76

Model read

▾

"When model and market disagree on Sociedad, that gap is the story." Our engine prices Sociedad at 48% for 3 September 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Bookmakers see it the same way, 49% on Sociedad, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. Totals sit close to the fence: 53% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 56%. Recent form reads W1 D2 L3 for Sociedad against W1 D2 L3 for Celta. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for Sociedad, 1 draws and 2 for Celta, averaging 2.0 goals a game. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.027 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners45.9%@ 2.18

Over 10.5 corners35.7%@ 2.80

Medium risk

Both teams to score56.4%@ 1.77

Over 2.5 goals53.2%@ 1.88

Draw or Celta51.6%@ 1.94

Random finds

1-1 correct score12.2%@ 8.20

2-1 correct score9.3%@ 10.71

1-0 correct score9.1%@ 10.94

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Sociedad

48.4%-0.9%

Draw

24.2%-1.9%

Celta

27.4%+2.8%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.027 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.577.6%

Strong chance

Over 2.553.2%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes56.4%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.556.9%

Good chance

Over 9.545.9%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.535.7%

Toss-up

Over 11.526.8%

Low chance

Most cornersSociedad60.3%Celta29.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.557.1%

Good chance

Over 24.544.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.532.3%

Toss-up

Over 28.522.2%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.577.6%2.553.2%3.5·4.5·

Our pre-match focusOver 1.577.6%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

SociedadLDLLW

CeltaDWDLL

Last 5 meetings: Sociedad 2 · 1 draws · Celta 2 · 2.0 goals/game.

2026-01-25Sociedad 3-1 Celta

2025-10-19Celta 1-1 Sociedad

2025-05-13Sociedad 0-1 Celta

2024-12-21Celta 2-0 Sociedad

2024-01-20Celta 0-1 Sociedad

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Sociedad

Celta

League position#13 of 20#16 of 20

Record W-D-L1-0-20-1-2

Current streakW1L2

Record, home vs away1-0-00-1-0

Red cards this season01

League averages this season: 2.93 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 57% · BTTS in 53%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair

Sociedad win1.952.07

Draw3.604.13

Celta win3.803.65

Over 2.5 goals1.931.88

Under 2.5 goals1.932.14

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Sociedad win2.16

Draw3.88

Celta win3.58

Both teams to score1.77

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07

Over 1.5 goals1.29

Over 2.5 goals1.88

Over 3.5 goals3.23

Sociedad most2.16

Celta most3.58

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.41

Over 8.5 corners1.69

Over 9.5 corners2.14

Over 10.5 corners2.85

Sociedad most1.65

Celta most3.43

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.24

Over 3.5 cards1.57

Over 4.5 cards2.22

Over 5.5 cards3.50

Sociedad most2.64

Celta most2.33

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.37

Over 7.5 SoT1.65

Over 8.5 SoT2.09

Over 9.5 SoT2.79

Sociedad most1.73

Celta most3.34

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.75

Over 24.5 shots2.26

Over 26.5 shots3.09

Over 28.5 shots4.50

Sociedad most1.53

Celta most3.46

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.27

Over 22.5 fouls1.50

Over 24.5 fouls1.88

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	73.0%	Over 7.5	60.7%	Over 8.5	47.9%	Over 9.5	35.8%
Most: Sociedad	57.8%	Most: Celta	29.9%
Sociedad Over 4.2	52.0%	Celta Over 4.2	31.8%

Cards

Over 2.5	80.8%	Over 3.5	63.6%	Over 4.5	44.9%
Most: Sociedad	37.9%	Most: Celta	42.9%
Sociedad Over 1.8	62.2%	Celta Over 1.8	65.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Sociedad clean sheet	30.0%
Celta clean sheet	20.0%
Sociedad win to nil	23.4%
Celta win to nil	13.4%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	46.3%	draw	25.8%	away	27.9%

double_chance

1X	72.1%	12	74.2%	X2	53.7%

dnb

home	62.4%	away	37.6%

btts

yes	56.4%	no	43.6%

clean_sheet

home	30.2%	away	20.0%

win_to_nil

home	23.6%	away	13.4%

winning_margin

home_by_1	22.0%	home_by_2	14.2%	home_by_3plus	10.1%
away_by_1	16.3%	away_by_2	7.9%	away_by_3plus	3.8%

correct_score

0-0	6.6%	0-1	6.6%	0-2	4.3%
0-3	1.7%	0-4	0.5%	0-5	0.1%
1-0	9.1%	1-1	12.2%	1-2	7.0%
1-3	2.8%	1-4	0.8%	1-5	0.2%
2-0	7.8%	2-1	9.3%	2-2	5.6%
2-3	2.3%	2-4	0.7%	2-5	0.2%
3-0	4.2%	3-1	5.0%	3-2	3.0%
3-3	1.2%	3-4	0.4%	3-5	0.1%
4-0	1.7%	4-1	2.0%	4-2	1.2%
4-3	0.5%	4-4	0.2%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.5%	5-1	0.7%	5-2	0.4%
5-3	0.2%	5-4	0.1%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.8%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	12.2%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	93.4%	under_0.5	6.6%	over_1.5	77.6%
under_1.5	22.4%	over_2.5	53.2%	under_2.5	46.8%
over_3.5	31.0%	under_3.5	69.0%	over_4.5	15.4%
under_4.5	84.6%	over_5.5	6.6%	under_5.5	93.4%

odd_even

odd	48.7%	even	51.3%

team_home

over_0.5	80.0%	under_0.5	20.0%	over_1.5	47.8%
under_1.5	52.2%	over_2.5	21.9%	under_2.5	78.1%

team_away

over_0.5	69.8%	under_0.5	30.2%	over_1.5	33.7%
under_1.5	66.3%	over_2.5	12.1%	under_2.5	87.9%

most

home	46.3%	draw	25.8%	away	27.9%

handicap

home_-2.5	10.1%	away_+2.5	89.9%	home_-1.5	24.3%
away_+1.5	75.7%	home_-0.5	46.3%	away_+0.5	53.7%
home_+0.5	72.1%	away_-0.5	27.9%	home_+1.5	88.3%
away_-1.5	11.7%	home_+2.5	96.3%	away_-2.5	3.8%

total_exact

exact_0	6.6%	exact_1	15.8%	exact_2	24.3%
exact_3	22.3%	exact_4	15.6%	exact_5	8.8%
exact_6	4.1%	exact_7plus	2.5%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	38.9%	draw	39.8%	away	21.3%

total

over_0.5	72.2%	under_0.5	27.8%	over_1.5	36.6%
under_1.5	63.4%	over_2.5	13.8%	under_2.5	86.2%

btts

yes	21.3%	no	78.8%

total_exact

exact_0	27.8%	exact_1	35.6%	exact_2	22.8%
exact_3	9.7%	exact_4plus	4.1%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	34.2%	draw	35.1%	away	30.7%

total

over_0.5	80.1%	under_0.5	20.0%	over_1.5	47.9%
under_1.5	52.1%	over_2.5	22.0%	under_2.5	78.0%

btts

yes	30.6%	no	69.4%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	29.9%	H/D	6.3%	H/A	2.8%
D/H	13.6%	D/D	14.0%	D/A	12.2%
A/H	2.0%	A/D	4.2%	A/A	15.2%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	71.1%	under_7.5	28.9%	over_8.5	59.1%
under_8.5	40.9%	over_9.5	46.7%	under_9.5	53.3%
over_10.5	35.1%	under_10.5	64.9%	over_11.5	25.1%
under_11.5	74.9%	over_12.5	17.0%	under_12.5	83.0%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	75.7%	under_3.5	24.3%	over_4.5	60.9%
under_4.5	39.1%	over_5.5	45.6%	under_5.5	54.4%

team_away

over_3.5	54.3%	under_3.5	45.7%	over_4.5	36.8%
under_4.5	63.2%	over_5.5	22.7%	under_5.5	77.3%

most

home	60.5%	draw	10.4%	away	29.2%

handicap

home_-3.5	28.3%	away_+3.5	71.7%	home_-1.5	49.3%
away_+1.5	50.7%	home_-0.5	60.5%	away_+0.5	39.5%
home_+0.5	70.8%	away_-0.5	29.2%	home_+1.5	79.7%
away_-1.5	20.3%	home_+3.5	91.8%	away_-3.5	8.2%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	57.1%	under_22.5	42.9%	over_24.5	44.3%
under_24.5	55.7%	over_26.5	32.3%	under_26.5	67.7%
over_28.5	22.2%	under_28.5	77.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	71.7%	under_10.5	28.3%	over_12.5	55.1%
under_12.5	44.9%	over_14.5	38.6%	under_14.5	61.4%

team_away

over_10.5	46.6%	under_10.5	53.4%	over_12.5	28.9%
under_12.5	71.1%	over_14.5	16.0%	under_14.5	84.0%

most

home	65.2%	draw	5.9%	away	28.9%

handicap

home_-4.5	39.6%	away_+4.5	60.4%	home_-2.5	52.5%
away_+2.5	47.5%	home_-0.5	65.2%	away_+0.5	34.8%
home_+0.5	71.1%	away_-0.5	28.9%	home_+2.5	81.2%
away_-2.5	18.8%	home_+4.5	88.8%	away_-4.5	11.3%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	73.0%	under_6.5	27.0%	over_7.5	60.7%
under_7.5	39.3%	over_8.5	47.9%	under_8.5	52.1%
over_9.5	35.8%	under_9.5	64.2%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	69.1%	under_3.5	30.9%	over_4.5	52.0%
under_4.5	48.0%	over_5.5	35.9%	under_5.5	64.1%

team_away

over_3.5	49.8%	under_3.5	50.2%	over_4.5	31.8%
under_4.5	68.3%	over_5.5	18.2%	under_5.5	81.8%

most

home	57.8%	draw	12.3%	away	29.9%

handicap

home_-2.5	32.4%	away_+2.5	67.6%	home_-0.5	57.8%
away_+0.5	42.2%	home_+0.5	70.1%	away_-0.5	29.9%
home_+2.5	88.2%	away_-2.5	11.8%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	80.8%	under_2.5	19.2%	over_3.5	63.6%
under_3.5	36.4%	over_4.5	45.0%	under_4.5	55.1%
over_5.5	28.5%	under_5.5	71.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	62.2%	under_1.5	37.8%	over_2.5	36.0%
under_2.5	64.0%

team_away

over_1.5	65.5%	under_1.5	34.5%	over_2.5	39.6%
under_2.5	60.4%

most

home	37.9%	draw	19.2%	away	42.9%

handicap

home_-1.5	21.5%	away_+1.5	78.5%	home_-0.5	37.9%
away_+0.5	62.1%	home_+0.5	57.1%	away_-0.5	42.9%
home_+1.5	74.5%	away_-1.5	25.5%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	78.9%	under_20.5	21.1%	over_22.5	66.8%
under_22.5	33.2%	over_24.5	53.3%	under_24.5	46.7%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	80.5%	under_9.5	19.5%	over_11.5	63.4%
under_11.5	36.6%	over_13.5	44.4%	under_13.5	55.6%

team_away

over_9.5	72.6%	under_9.5	27.4%	over_11.5	53.0%
under_11.5	47.0%	over_13.5	33.9%	under_13.5	66.1%

most

home	54.1%	draw	6.8%	away	39.0%

handicap

home_-3.5	33.7%	away_+3.5	66.3%	home_-0.5	54.1%
away_+0.5	45.9%	home_+2.5	73.5%	away_-2.5	26.5%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	18.1%	no	81.9%

home

yes	11.3%	no	88.7%

away

yes	7.6%	no	92.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Sociedad predictions · Celta predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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