Ein Frankfurt vs Augsburg: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 6 Sep 2026

Bundesliga

Ein Frankfurt

DLLDD

Full time1-4Sun, 6 Sep 202616:30UK24°C · Cloudy

Augsburg

DWWLW

Model’s top convictions

85%

Over 1.5 goals

71%

Ein Frankfurt or draw

65%

Both teams to score

Full time9 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Ein Frankfurt 1-4 Augsburg

✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card

9 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Ein Frankfurt at 49.1%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 63.9% and it landed (5 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 84.6% and it landed (5 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 58.2% and it missed (5 goals). We called Yes at 64.5% and it landed. We called Yes at 79.1% and it landed. We called Yes at 82.7% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 51.8% and it landed (13 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 52.8% and it missed (2 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 58.7% and it landed (39 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 71.6% and it landed (15 shots on target). We called No at 83.8% and it landed.

Match data	Ein Frankfurt	Augsburg
Goals, 1st half	1	0
Goals, 2nd half	0	4
Shots	22	17
Shots, 1st half	11	2
Shots, 2nd half	12	15
Shots on target	8	7
Corners	9	4
Yellow cards	1	1
Red cards	0	0
Fouls	10	13
Expected goals (xG)	2.51	1.45

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

Ein FrankfurtWin probability

49.1%

Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals84.6%High probabilityPays @ 1.18

Ein Frankfurt or draw71.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.40

Both teams to score64.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.55

Model read

▾

"When model and market disagree on Ein Frankfurt, that gap is the story." Ein Frankfurt versus Augsburg on 6 September 2026 tilts towards Ein Frankfurt in our numbers (49%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 64% with both teams to score at 64%. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Ein Frankfurt, 3 draws and 0 for Augsburg at 2.2 goals per match. For shots markets, Can Uzun is the obvious watch at 1.4 on target per 90 in recent data. The run in: Ein Frankfurt arrive W0 D3 L3, Augsburg W4 D1 L1. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners40.1%@ 2.49

Over 11.5 corners31.0%@ 3.23

Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners60.9%@ 1.64

Draw or Augsburg50.9%@ 1.97

Over 9.5 corners50.3%@ 1.99

Random finds

1-1 correct score10.3%@ 9.68

2-1 correct score9.3%@ 10.75

1-2 correct score6.9%@ 14.49

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Ein Frankfurt

49.1%

Draw

22.2%

Augsburg

28.7%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.584.6%

High probability

Over 2.563.9%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes64.5%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.560.9%

Strong chance

Over 9.550.3%

Good chance

Over 10.540.1%

Toss-up

Over 11.531.0%

Toss-up

Most cornersEin Frankfurt59.7%Augsburg30.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.570.3%

Strong chance

Over 24.558.7%

Good chance

Over 26.546.6%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.535.1%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.584.6%2.563.9%3.5·4.5·

Our pre-match focusOver 2.563.9%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

Ein FrankfurtDLLDD

AugsburgDWWLW

Last 5 meetings: Ein Frankfurt 2 · 3 draws · Augsburg 0 · 2.2 goals/game.

2026-04-25Augsburg 1-1 Ein Frankfurt

2025-12-13Ein Frankfurt 1-0 Augsburg

2025-04-20Augsburg 0-0 Ein Frankfurt

2024-12-07Ein Frankfurt 2-2 Augsburg

2024-04-19Ein Frankfurt 3-1 Augsburg

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Ein Frankfurt

Augsburg

League position#8 of 18#3 of 18

Record W-D-L0-1-01-0-0

Current streakD1W1

Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Can UzunEin Frankfurt · key player

To score25.8%

@ 3.88

1+ on target52.9%

@ 1.89

2+ shots51.4%

@ 1.95

Shots/90 3.3SoT/90 1.44Goals/90 0.57

Anton KadeAugsburg · key player

To score21.2%

@ 4.72

1+ on target57.8%

@ 1.73

2+ shots55.6%

@ 1.80

Shots/90 2.66SoT/90 1.23Goals/90 0.34

Jonathan BurkardtEin Frankfurt · in form

To score45.3%

@ 2.21

1+ on target62.4%

@ 1.60

2+ shots64.0%

@ 1.56

Shots/90 2.89SoT/90 1.3Goals/90 0.8

Rodrigo RibeiroAugsburg · in form

To score18.3%

@ 5.46

1+ on target41.2%

@ 2.43

2+ shots55.7%

@ 1.80

Shots/90 3.97SoT/90 1.13Goals/90 0.43

Ayoube Amaimouni-EchghouyabEin Frankfurt · in form

To score10.4%

@ 9.62

1+ on target32.3%

@ 3.10

2+ shots20.4%

@ 4.90

Shots/90 2.12SoT/90 0.99Goals/90 0.28

Michael GregoritschAugsburg · in form

To score21.0%

@ 4.76

1+ on target39.3%

@ 2.54

2+ shots37.0%

@ 2.70

Shots/90 2.74SoT/90 1.06Goals/90 0.5

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Ein Frankfurt win2.06

Draw4.28

Augsburg win3.55

Both teams to score1.55

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.18

Over 2.5 goals1.56

Over 3.5 goals2.39

Over 4.5 goals4.23

Ein Frankfurt most2.06

Augsburg most3.55

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.33

Over 8.5 corners1.57

Over 9.5 corners1.93

Over 10.5 corners2.49

Ein Frankfurt most1.67

Augsburg most3.32

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.37

Over 3.5 cards1.89

Over 4.5 cards2.99

Over 5.5 cards5.38

Ein Frankfurt most3.05

Augsburg most2.17

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.23

Over 7.5 SoT1.40

Over 8.5 SoT1.66

Over 9.5 SoT2.05

Ein Frankfurt most1.65

Augsburg most3.50

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.42

Over 24.5 shots1.70

Over 26.5 shots2.14

Over 28.5 shots2.85

Ein Frankfurt most1.57

Augsburg most3.25

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.11

Over 22.5 fouls2.82

Over 24.5 fouls3.96

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	81.4%	Over 7.5	71.6%	Over 8.5	60.4%	Over 9.5	48.8%
Most: Ein Frankfurt	60.5%	Most: Augsburg	28.6%
Ein Frankfurt Over 4.2	62.0%	Augsburg Over 4.2	38.8%

Cards

Over 2.5	73.3%	Over 3.5	52.8%	Over 4.5	33.4%
Most: Ein Frankfurt	32.8%	Most: Augsburg	46.2%
Ein Frankfurt Over 1.8	51.8%	Augsburg Over 1.8	61.4%

Ein Frankfurt: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Can Uzun	3.3	1.44	0.57	52.9%	51.4%	25.8%
Jonathan Burkardt	2.89	1.3	0.8	62.4%	64.0%	45.3%
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab	2.12	0.99	0.28	32.3%	20.4%	10.4%
Farès Chaïbi	1.85	0.45	0.1	23.3%	29.8%	5.7%
Oscar Højlund	0.66	0.25	0.1	10.6%	3.6%	4.4%

Augsburg: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Anton Kade	2.66	1.23	0.34	57.8%	55.6%	21.2%
Rodrigo Ribeiro	3.97	1.13	0.43	41.2%	55.7%	18.3%
Michael Gregoritsch	2.74	1.06	0.5	39.3%	37.0%	21.0%
Mert Kömür	2.39	1.04	0.17	39.3%	31.8%	7.8%
Fabian Rieder	1.48	0.53	0.16	30.6%	27.1%	10.4%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Ein Frankfurt clean sheet	24.3%
Augsburg clean sheet	15.1%
Ein Frankfurt win to nil	20.1%
Augsburg win to nil	10.9%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	48.5%	draw	23.3%	away	28.1%

double_chance

1X	71.9%	12	76.6%	X2	51.5%

dnb

home	63.3%	away	36.7%

btts

yes	64.5%	no	35.5%

clean_sheet

home	24.6%	away	15.1%

win_to_nil

home	20.4%	away	10.9%

winning_margin

home_by_1	21.0%	home_by_2	14.8%	home_by_3plus	12.7%
away_by_1	15.5%	away_by_2	8.2%	away_by_3plus	4.5%

correct_score

0-0	4.2%	0-1	4.7%	0-2	3.7%
0-3	1.7%	0-4	0.6%	0-5	0.2%
1-0	6.5%	1-1	10.3%	1-2	6.9%
1-3	3.2%	1-4	1.1%	1-5	0.3%
2-0	6.6%	2-1	9.3%	2-2	6.5%
2-3	3.1%	2-4	1.1%	2-5	0.3%
3-0	4.2%	3-1	5.9%	3-2	4.1%
3-3	1.9%	3-4	0.7%	3-5	0.2%
4-0	2.0%	4-1	2.8%	4-2	2.0%
4-3	0.9%	4-4	0.3%	4-5	0.1%
5-0	0.8%	5-1	1.1%	5-2	0.7%
5-3	0.4%	5-4	0.1%	5-5	0.0%
other	1.6%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	10.3%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	95.8%	under_0.5	4.2%	over_1.5	84.6%
under_1.5	15.5%	over_2.5	63.9%	under_2.5	36.1%
over_3.5	41.9%	under_3.5	58.2%	over_4.5	23.7%
under_4.5	76.4%	over_5.5	11.7%	under_5.5	88.3%

odd_even

odd	48.9%	even	51.1%

team_home

over_0.5	84.9%	under_0.5	15.1%	over_1.5	56.4%
under_1.5	43.6%	over_2.5	29.4%	under_2.5	70.6%

team_away

over_0.5	75.4%	under_0.5	24.6%	over_1.5	40.9%
under_1.5	59.1%	over_2.5	16.7%	under_2.5	83.3%

most

home	48.5%	draw	23.3%	away	28.1%

handicap

home_-2.5	12.7%	away_+2.5	87.3%	home_-1.5	27.5%
away_+1.5	72.5%	home_-0.5	48.5%	away_+0.5	51.5%
home_+0.5	71.9%	away_-0.5	28.1%	home_+1.5	87.3%
away_-1.5	12.7%	home_+2.5	95.5%	away_-2.5	4.5%

total_exact

exact_0	4.2%	exact_1	11.2%	exact_2	20.6%
exact_3	22.1%	exact_4	18.2%	exact_5	12.0%
exact_6	6.6%	exact_7plus	5.1%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	42.9%	draw	34.9%	away	22.2%

total

over_0.5	79.1%	under_0.5	20.9%	over_1.5	46.4%
under_1.5	53.6%	over_2.5	20.8%	under_2.5	79.2%

btts

yes	28.0%	no	72.0%

total_exact

exact_0	20.9%	exact_1	32.7%	exact_2	25.6%
exact_3	13.4%	exact_4plus	7.4%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	39.2%	draw	33.2%	away	27.6%

total

over_0.5	82.7%	under_0.5	17.3%	over_1.5	52.3%
under_1.5	47.7%	over_2.5	25.7%	under_2.5	74.3%

btts

yes	33.6%	no	66.4%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	34.5%	H/D	5.9%	H/A	2.5%
D/H	13.7%	D/D	11.6%	D/A	9.6%
A/H	2.7%	A/D	4.6%	A/A	15.0%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	74.9%	under_7.5	25.1%	over_8.5	63.7%
under_8.5	36.3%	over_9.5	51.8%	under_9.5	48.2%
over_10.5	40.1%	under_10.5	59.9%	over_11.5	29.6%
under_11.5	70.4%	over_12.5	20.8%	under_12.5	79.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	77.4%	under_3.5	22.6%	over_4.5	63.3%
under_4.5	36.7%	over_5.5	48.5%	under_5.5	51.5%

team_away

over_3.5	57.9%	under_3.5	42.2%	over_4.5	40.6%
under_4.5	59.4%	over_5.5	26.2%	under_5.5	73.8%

most

home	59.8%	draw	10.0%	away	30.1%

handicap

home_-3.5	28.9%	away_+3.5	71.1%	home_-1.5	49.1%
away_+1.5	50.9%	home_-0.5	59.8%	away_+0.5	40.2%
home_+0.5	69.9%	away_-0.5	30.1%	home_+1.5	78.6%
away_-1.5	21.4%	home_+3.5	90.8%	away_-3.5	9.2%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	70.3%	under_22.5	29.7%	over_24.5	58.7%
under_24.5	41.3%	over_26.5	46.6%	under_26.5	53.4%
over_28.5	35.1%	under_28.5	64.9%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	78.4%	under_10.5	21.6%	over_12.5	63.8%
under_12.5	36.2%	over_14.5	47.9%	under_14.5	52.1%

team_away

over_10.5	57.9%	under_10.5	42.1%	over_12.5	40.0%
under_12.5	60.0%	over_14.5	25.1%	under_14.5	75.0%

most

home	63.7%	draw	5.6%	away	30.8%

handicap

home_-4.5	39.6%	away_+4.5	60.4%	home_-2.5	51.7%
away_+2.5	48.3%	home_-0.5	63.7%	away_+0.5	36.3%
home_+0.5	69.2%	away_-0.5	30.8%	home_+2.5	79.1%
away_-2.5	20.9%	home_+4.5	86.7%	away_-4.5	13.3%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	81.4%	under_6.5	18.6%	over_7.5	71.6%
under_7.5	28.4%	over_8.5	60.4%	under_8.5	39.6%
over_9.5	48.8%	under_9.5	51.2%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	76.6%	under_3.5	23.4%	over_4.5	62.0%
under_4.5	38.0%	over_5.5	46.8%	under_5.5	53.2%

team_away

over_3.5	56.4%	under_3.5	43.6%	over_4.5	38.8%
under_4.5	61.2%	over_5.5	24.3%	under_5.5	75.6%

most

home	60.6%	draw	10.9%	away	28.5%

handicap

home_-2.5	37.3%	away_+2.5	62.7%	home_-0.5	60.6%
away_+0.5	39.5%	home_+0.5	71.5%	away_-0.5	28.5%
home_+2.5	87.7%	away_-2.5	12.3%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	73.3%	under_2.5	26.7%	over_3.5	52.8%
under_3.5	47.2%	over_4.5	33.4%	under_4.5	66.6%
over_5.5	18.6%	under_5.5	81.4%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	51.7%	under_1.5	48.3%	over_2.5	25.2%
under_2.5	74.8%

team_away

over_1.5	61.4%	under_1.5	38.6%	over_2.5	34.3%
under_2.5	65.7%

most

home	32.8%	draw	21.0%	away	46.2%

handicap

home_-1.5	16.4%	away_+1.5	83.6%	home_-0.5	32.8%
away_+0.5	67.2%	home_+0.5	53.8%	away_-0.5	46.2%
home_+1.5	73.5%	away_-1.5	26.6%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	47.5%	under_20.5	52.5%	over_22.5	35.5%
under_22.5	64.5%	over_24.5	25.2%	under_24.5	74.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	53.5%	under_9.5	46.5%	over_11.5	36.4%
under_11.5	63.6%	over_13.5	22.7%	under_13.5	77.3%

team_away

over_9.5	52.1%	under_9.5	47.9%	over_11.5	35.0%
under_11.5	65.0%	over_13.5	21.5%	under_13.5	78.5%

most

home	47.8%	draw	6.5%	away	45.7%

handicap

home_-3.5	29.3%	away_+3.5	70.7%	home_-0.5	47.8%
away_+0.5	52.2%	home_+2.5	66.8%	away_-2.5	33.2%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	16.2%	no	83.8%

home

yes	12.7%	no	87.3%

away

yes	4.0%	no	96.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Ein Frankfurt predictions · Augsburg predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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