League TwoSalford vs Chesterfield Cards
Result
Settled, final score 0-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 52.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 72.6% for over 2.5 to 18.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.0%. On the card count, Salford are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.2%, with a level count at 21.3%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 72.6% | 27.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 32.6% | 67.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 18.0% | 82.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
59.5%
32.5%
52.6%
25.9%
Card handicap
| Salford line | Salford | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24.8% | 75.2% |
| -0.5 | 44.2% | 55.8% |
| +0.5 | 65.4% | 34.6% |
| +1.5 | 82.4% | 17.6% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 67.2% | 32.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 36.8% | 63.2% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Salford vs Chesterfield. Slightly more cards are projected for Salford for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
52.0%Over 3.5 cards10.5%Any red card59.5%Salford over 1.5 cards52.6%Chesterfield over 1.5 cards51.9%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Salford over 1.5 cards sits at 59.5% and Chesterfield at 52.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.5% (Salford 5.7%, Chesterfield 5.1%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Salford vs Chesterfield?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 52.0% for Salford vs Chesterfield.
Will there be a red card in Salford vs Chesterfield?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 10.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Salford vs Chesterfield?
Before kickoff, the model rated Salford to pick up more cards at 44.2%, with a level count at 21.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.