PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen: model prediction
EredivisieOver 1.5 goals
PSV Eindhoven or draw
Over 2.5 goals
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was PSV Eindhoven at 63.5%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 71.1% and it landed (6 goals). We called Yes at 65.1% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes PSV Eindhoven heavy favourites at 64% when PSV Eindhoven meet Groningen in the Eredivisie on 23 August 2026. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing PSV Eindhoven at 71%. Caution noted. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 71% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 65%. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 5 wins for PSV Eindhoven, 0 draws and 0 for Groningen at 4.8 goals per match. The run in: PSV Eindhoven arrive W4 D2 L0, Groningen W4 D0 L2. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
63.5%-7.8%
19.0%+0.6%
17.5%+7.2%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10)
Goals markets
High probability
Strong chance
Strong chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: PSV Eindhoven 5 · 0 draws · Groningen 0 · 4.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
PSV Eindhoven
GroningenBookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 87.0% | Over 7.5 | 79.4% | Over 8.5 | 70.3% | Over 9.5 | 60.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: PSV Eindhoven | 52.9% | Most: Groningen | 36.8% | ||||
| PSV Eindhoven Over 4.2 | 64.0% | Groningen Over 4.2 | 53.0% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 52.7% | Over 3.5 | 30.6% | Over 4.5 | 15.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: PSV Eindhoven | 27.0% | Most: Groningen | 48.6% | ||
| PSV Eindhoven Over 1.8 | 32.0% | Groningen Over 1.8 | 48.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| PSV Eindhoven clean sheet | 27.9% |
|---|---|
| Groningen clean sheet | 8.7% |
| PSV Eindhoven win to nil | 25.0% |
| Groningen win to nil | 5.8% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 63.5% | draw | 19.0% | away | 17.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 82.5% | 12 | 81.0% | X2 | 36.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 78.4% | away | 21.6% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 65.1% | no | 34.9% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 29.0% | away | 8.7% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 26.1% | away | 5.8% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 21.1% | home_by_2 | 18.6% | home_by_3plus | 23.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 10.5% | away_by_2 | 4.8% | away_by_3plus | 2.2% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 2.9% | 0-1 | 2.8% | 0-2 | 1.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.8% | 0-4 | 0.3% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 5.8% | 1-1 | 8.0% | 1-2 | 4.7% |
| 1-3 | 2.0% | 1-4 | 0.6% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 7.5% | 2-1 | 9.3% | 2-2 | 5.7% |
| 2-3 | 2.4% | 2-4 | 0.7% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 6.1% | 3-1 | 7.6% | 3-2 | 4.7% |
| 3-3 | 1.9% | 3-4 | 0.6% | 3-5 | 0.2% |
| 4-0 | 3.8% | 4-1 | 4.6% | 4-2 | 2.9% |
| 4-3 | 1.2% | 4-4 | 0.4% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 1.8% | 5-1 | 2.3% | 5-2 | 1.4% |
| 5-3 | 0.6% | 5-4 | 0.2% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 4.1% |
likeliest_score
| h | 200.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 9.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 97.1% | under_0.5 | 2.9% | over_1.5 | 88.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 11.4% | over_2.5 | 71.1% | under_2.5 | 28.9% |
| over_3.5 | 50.2% | under_3.5 | 49.8% | over_4.5 | 31.0% |
| under_4.5 | 69.0% | over_5.5 | 16.8% | under_5.5 | 83.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.2% | even | 50.8% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 91.3% | under_0.5 | 8.7% | over_1.5 | 70.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 30.0% | over_2.5 | 44.2% | under_2.5 | 55.8% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 71.0% | under_0.5 | 29.0% | over_1.5 | 35.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 64.9% | over_2.5 | 12.9% | under_2.5 | 87.1% |
most
| home | 63.5% | draw | 19.0% | away | 17.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 23.8% | away_+2.5 | 76.2% | home_-1.5 | 42.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 57.6% | home_-0.5 | 63.5% | away_+0.5 | 36.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 82.5% | away_-0.5 | 17.5% | home_+1.5 | 93.0% |
| away_-1.5 | 7.0% | home_+2.5 | 97.8% | away_-2.5 | 2.2% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 2.9% | exact_1 | 8.5% | exact_2 | 17.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 20.9% | exact_4 | 19.3% | exact_5 | 14.2% |
| exact_6 | 8.7% | exact_7plus | 8.1% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 48.0% | draw | 32.2% | away | 19.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 82.1% | under_0.5 | 17.9% | over_1.5 | 51.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 48.7% | over_2.5 | 24.8% | under_2.5 | 75.2% |
btts
| yes | 30.5% | no | 69.6% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 17.9% | exact_1 | 30.8% | exact_2 | 26.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 15.2% | exact_4plus | 9.6% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 57.9% | draw | 26.7% | away | 15.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 87.2% | under_0.5 | 12.8% | over_1.5 | 60.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 39.1% | over_2.5 | 33.8% | under_2.5 | 66.2% |
btts
| yes | 34.7% | no | 65.3% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 43.2% | H/D | 3.7% | H/A | 1.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 18.6% | D/D | 8.6% | D/A | 4.9% |
| A/H | 5.0% | A/D | 5.0% | A/A | 9.9% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 80.2% | under_7.5 | 19.8% | over_8.5 | 70.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 29.7% | over_9.5 | 59.1% | under_9.5 | 40.9% |
| over_10.5 | 47.7% | under_10.5 | 52.3% | over_11.5 | 36.7% |
| under_11.5 | 63.3% | over_12.5 | 27.1% | under_12.5 | 72.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 78.8% | under_3.5 | 21.2% | over_4.5 | 65.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 34.4% | over_5.5 | 51.6% | under_5.5 | 48.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 63.5% | under_3.5 | 36.5% | over_4.5 | 47.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 52.8% | over_5.5 | 32.7% | under_5.5 | 67.3% |
most
| home | 57.4% | draw | 9.4% | away | 33.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 29.2% | away_+3.5 | 70.8% | home_-1.5 | 47.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 52.3% | home_-0.5 | 57.4% | away_+0.5 | 42.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.8% | away_-0.5 | 33.2% | home_+1.5 | 75.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 24.8% | home_+3.5 | 88.0% | away_-3.5 | 12.0% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 73.0% | under_22.5 | 27.0% | over_24.5 | 62.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 37.3% | over_26.5 | 51.7% | under_26.5 | 48.3% |
| over_28.5 | 40.8% | under_28.5 | 59.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 77.4% | under_10.5 | 22.6% | over_12.5 | 63.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 36.1% | over_14.5 | 49.4% | under_14.5 | 50.6% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 62.4% | under_10.5 | 37.6% | over_12.5 | 46.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 53.8% | over_14.5 | 31.7% | under_14.5 | 68.3% |
most
| home | 59.7% | draw | 5.3% | away | 34.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 37.6% | away_+4.5 | 62.4% | home_-2.5 | 48.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 51.3% | home_-0.5 | 59.7% | away_+0.5 | 40.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 65.1% | away_-0.5 | 34.9% | home_+2.5 | 74.7% |
| away_-2.5 | 25.3% | home_+4.5 | 82.8% | away_-4.5 | 17.2% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 87.0% | under_6.5 | 13.0% | over_7.5 | 79.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 20.5% | over_8.5 | 70.3% | under_8.5 | 29.7% |
| over_9.5 | 60.2% | under_9.5 | 39.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 77.6% | under_3.5 | 22.4% | over_4.5 | 64.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 36.0% | over_5.5 | 49.8% | under_5.5 | 50.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 68.7% | under_3.5 | 31.3% | over_4.5 | 53.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 47.0% | over_5.5 | 38.1% | under_5.5 | 61.9% |
most
| home | 52.8% | draw | 10.4% | away | 36.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 32.4% | away_+2.5 | 67.6% | home_-0.5 | 52.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 47.2% | home_+0.5 | 63.2% | away_-0.5 | 36.8% |
| home_+2.5 | 80.7% | away_-2.5 | 19.3% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 52.7% | under_2.5 | 47.3% | over_3.5 | 30.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 69.4% | over_4.5 | 15.2% | under_4.5 | 84.8% |
| over_5.5 | 6.6% | under_5.5 | 93.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.8% | even | 50.2% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 32.0% | under_1.5 | 68.0% | over_2.5 | 11.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 88.9% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 48.5% | under_1.5 | 51.5% | over_2.5 | 22.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 77.3% |
most
| home | 27.0% | draw | 24.5% | away | 48.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 10.8% | away_+1.5 | 89.2% | home_-0.5 | 27.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 73.0% | home_+0.5 | 51.4% | away_-0.5 | 48.6% |
| home_+1.5 | 74.4% | away_-1.5 | 25.6% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 38.1% | under_20.5 | 61.9% | over_22.5 | 24.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 75.7% | over_24.5 | 14.0% | under_24.5 | 86.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 47.1% | under_9.5 | 52.9% | over_11.5 | 26.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 73.9% | over_13.5 | 12.2% | under_13.5 | 87.8% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 50.3% | under_9.5 | 49.7% | over_11.5 | 29.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 71.0% | over_13.5 | 14.0% | under_13.5 | 86.0% |
most
| home | 43.6% | draw | 8.4% | away | 48.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 21.5% | away_+3.5 | 78.6% | home_-0.5 | 43.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 56.5% | home_+2.5 | 68.0% | away_-2.5 | 32.0% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 10.1% | no | 90.0% |
|---|
home
| yes | 3.9% | no | 96.1% |
|---|
away
| yes | 6.4% | no | 93.6% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: PSV Eindhoven predictions · Groningen predictions · Eredivisie
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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