ChampionshipPortsmouth vs QPR Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Result
We called Over 2.5 at 50.7% and it landed.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 2.5 goals at 50.8%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Portsmouth have averaged 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded, QPR 0.6 and 2.0 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 50.8% for over 2.5 and 75.8% for at least two goals. Their last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 goals a game. Portsmouth have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, QPR in 3 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 92.7% | 7.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 75.8% | 24.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 71.3% |
| 4.5 goals | 13.8% | 86.2% |
| 5.5 goals | 5.7% | 94.3% |
Team goal lines
77.1%
43.4%
18.5%
70.7%
34.8%
12.7%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 70.1% | 29.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 34.0% | 66.0% |
| 2.5 goals | 12.2% | 87.8% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 78.8% | 21.2% |
| 1.5 goals | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| 2.5 goals | 20.4% | 79.6% |
This season (2025/26)
1.1Portsmouth goals scored per game1.4Portsmouth goals conceded per game43.5%Portsmouth Over 2.5 rate0.4Portsmouth 1st-half goals per game1.3QPR goals scored per game1.6QPR goals conceded per game63.0%QPR Over 2.5 rate0.6QPR 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
55.2%Both Teams to Score50.8%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 50.8% for three or more goals and 75.8% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Portsmouth favoured at 42.3%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Portsmouth to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Portsmouth 2 · 1 draws · QPR 1 · 3.8 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Were there over 2.5 goals in Portsmouth vs QPR?
We rated Over 2.5 goals at 50.8%. The match finished with 4 goals (1-3), over 2.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 18,212 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 53.9% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.