League TwoOldham vs Swindon Corners
Result
Settled, final score 3-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 51.8%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 75.6% for over 7.5 to 22.4% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.1%. Head to head on corners, Oldham are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 57.6%, with a level count at 10.3%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 75.6% | 24.4% |
| 8.5 corners | 64.8% | 35.2% |
| 9.5 corners | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| 10.5 corners | 41.6% | 58.4% |
| 11.5 corners | 31.2% | 68.8% |
| 12.5 corners | 22.4% | 77.6% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
76.9%
62.6%
47.7%
60.6%
43.5%
28.8%
Corner handicap
| Oldham line | Oldham | Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 27.0% | 73.1% |
| -1.5 | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| -0.5 | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| +0.5 | 67.9% | 32.2% |
Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Oldham.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Oldham over 4.5 corners sits at 62.6% and Swindon at 43.5%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Oldham vs Swindon?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 53.1% for Oldham vs Swindon.
Which team will win the corner count in Oldham vs Swindon?
Before kickoff, the model rated Oldham to win the corner count at 57.6%, with a level count at 10.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,691 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.