Pro League
Kortrijk vs 
Charleroi Cards
Result
Settled, final score 1-3. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 45.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 67.0% for over 2.5 to 14.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.6%. On the card count, Charleroi are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.2%, with a level count at 21.5%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 67.0% | 33.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 45.6% | 54.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 27.2% | 72.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 14.3% | 85.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
43.6%
19.1%
58.5%
32.0%
Card handicap
| Kortrijk line | Kortrijk | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13.6% | 86.4% |
| -0.5 | 29.3% | 70.7% |
| +0.5 | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| +1.5 | 71.6% | 28.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 38.7% | 61.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 25.9% | 74.1% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Kortrijk vs Charleroi. Slightly more cards are projected for Charleroi for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
45.6%Over 3.5 cards17.5%Any red card43.6%Kortrijk over 1.5 cards58.5%Charleroi over 1.5 cards38.7%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Kortrijk over 1.5 cards sits at 43.6% and Charleroi at 58.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.5% (Kortrijk 7.0%, Charleroi 11.3%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 45.6% for Kortrijk vs Charleroi.
Will there be a red card in Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 17.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Before kickoff, the model rated Charleroi to pick up more cards at 49.2%, with a level count at 21.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.