Kifisia vs AEK prediction & probabilities (2026-08-30)

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Kifisia vs AEK: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 29 Aug 2026

Super League Greece
Kifisia

WWLDW

Full time1-1Sun, 30 Aug 202619:00UK
AEK

DWDDW

Model’s top convictions

79%

Draw or AEK

70%

Over 1.5 goals

57%

Under 2.5 goals

Full time8 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Kifisia 1-1 AEK
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✕ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✕ Red card
8 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was AEK at 51.4%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 57.0% and it landed (2 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 69.8% and it landed (2 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 77.9% and it landed (2 goals). We called No at 53.8% and it missed. We called Yes at 64.1% and it missed. We called Yes at 73.3% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 62.2% and it landed (3 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 78.4% and it landed (7 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 61.5% and it landed (23 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 54.1% and it landed (8 shots on target). We called No at 79.2% and it missed.

Match data Kifisia AEK
Goals, 1st half 0 0
Goals, 2nd half 1 1
Shots 14 9
Shots on target 3 5
Corners 1 2
Yellow cards 5 2
Red cards 1 0
Fouls 20 14

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
AEKWin probability
51.4%
Top 3 convictions

Draw or AEK78.5%High probabilityPays @ 1.27
Over 1.5 goals69.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.43
Under 2.5 goals57.0%Good chancePays @ 1.75

Model read

▾

"Kifisia or AEK? We publish probabilities, not certainties." A measured edge to AEK: 51% is the model's line for this Super League Greece meeting on 30 August 2026. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing AEK at 72%. Caution noted. The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 43% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 46%. The recent series reads 0 wins for Kifisia, 1 draws and 3 for AEK over 4 games, 3.2 goals on average. Fatigue may matter, with AEK 93 days shorter on recovery than Kifisia. Recent form reads W3 D2 L1 for Kifisia against W3 D3 L0 for AEK. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.09).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals43.0%@ 2.33
Over 9.5 corners38.1%@ 2.62
Medium risk

Not both teams to score53.8%@ 1.86
Kifisia or draw48.7%@ 2.05
Over 8.5 corners48.5%@ 2.06
Random finds

0-1 correct score13.2%@ 7.60
1-1 correct score12.7%@ 7.89
0-2 correct score10.5%@ 9.56

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Kifisia

21.6%+12.8%

Draw

27.1%+7.5%

AEK

51.4%-20.1%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.09)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.569.8%

Strong chance

Over 2.543.0%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes46.2%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.548.5%

Reasonable chance

Over 9.538.1%

Toss-up

Over 10.528.9%

Low chance

Over 11.521.2%

Low chance

Most cornersKifisia49.5%AEK39.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.549.9%

Reasonable chance

Over 24.538.5%

Toss-up

Over 26.528.3%

Low chance

Over 28.519.8%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.569.8%2.543.0%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.569.8%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

KifisiaWWLDW
AEKDWDDW

Last 4 meetings: Kifisia 0 · 1 draws · AEK 3 · 3.3 goals/game.

2026-03-22AEK 3-0 Kifisia
2025-10-05Kifisia 2-3 AEK
2024-02-18AEK 3-0 Kifisia
2023-11-04Kifisia 1-1 AEK

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Kifisia win9.004.63
Draw4.503.69
AEK win1.331.95
Over 2.5 goals1.702.33
Under 2.5 goals2.101.75

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Kifisia win4.64
Draw3.70
AEK win1.95
Both teams to score2.17

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.11
Over 1.5 goals1.43
Over 2.5 goals2.32
Over 3.5 goals4.52
Kifisia most4.64
AEK most1.95

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.59
Over 8.5 corners2.00
Over 9.5 corners2.65
Over 10.5 corners3.70
Kifisia most2.01
AEK most2.55

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.11
Over 3.5 cards1.28
Over 4.5 cards1.61
Over 5.5 cards2.23
Kifisia most2.58
AEK most2.29

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.52
Over 7.5 SoT1.85
Over 8.5 SoT2.35
Over 9.5 SoT3.12
Kifisia most1.90
AEK most2.82

Shots

Over 22.5 shots2.00
Over 24.5 shots2.60
Over 26.5 shots3.53
Over 28.5 shots5.06
Kifisia most1.70
AEK most2.81

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.07
Over 22.5 fouls1.14
Over 24.5 fouls1.25
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 66.0% Over 7.5 54.1% Over 8.5 42.5% Over 9.5 32.1%
Most: Kifisia 52.5% Most: AEK 35.5%
Kifisia Over 4.2 44.2% AEK Over 4.2 32.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 90.4% Over 3.5 78.4% Over 4.5 62.2%
Most: Kifisia 38.7% Most: AEK 43.6%
Kifisia Over 1.8 73.5% AEK Over 1.8 76.2%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Kifisia clean sheet 22.1%
AEK clean sheet 41.3%
Kifisia win to nil 12.4%
AEK win to nil 31.6%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 21.6% draw 27.1% away 51.4%
double_chance
1X 48.6% 12 72.9% X2 78.4%
dnb
home 29.6% away 70.4%
btts
yes 46.2% no 53.8%
clean_sheet
home 22.1% away 41.4%
win_to_nil
home 12.4% away 31.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1 14.1% home_by_2 5.5% home_by_3plus 1.9%
away_by_1 24.6% away_by_2 15.9% away_by_3plus 10.9%
correct_score
0-0 9.7% 0-1 13.2% 0-2 10.5%
0-3 5.3% 0-4 2.0% 0-5 0.6%
1-0 7.4% 1-1 12.7% 1-2 9.1%
1-3 4.6% 1-4 1.8% 1-5 0.5%
2-0 3.6% 2-1 5.4% 2-2 4.0%
2-3 2.0% 2-4 0.8% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 1.1% 3-1 1.6% 3-2 1.2%
3-3 0.6% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.3% 4-1 0.4% 4-2 0.3%
4-3 0.1% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.1% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.5%
likeliest_score
h 0.0% a 100.0% p 13.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 90.3% under_0.5 9.7% over_1.5 69.8%
under_1.5 30.2% over_2.5 43.0% under_2.5 57.0%
over_3.5 22.1% under_3.5 77.9% over_4.5 9.6%
under_4.5 90.4% over_5.5 3.6% under_5.5 96.4%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 58.6% under_0.5 41.4% over_1.5 22.3%
under_1.5 77.7% over_2.5 6.2% under_2.5 93.8%
team_away
over_0.5 77.9% under_0.5 22.1% over_1.5 44.6%
under_1.5 55.4% over_2.5 19.5% under_2.5 80.5%
most
home 21.6% draw 27.1% away 51.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 1.9% away_+2.5 98.1% home_-1.5 7.4%
away_+1.5 92.6% home_-0.5 21.6% away_+0.5 78.4%
home_+0.5 48.6% away_-0.5 51.4% home_+1.5 73.2%
away_-1.5 26.8% home_+2.5 89.1% away_-2.5 10.9%
total_exact
exact_0 9.7% exact_1 20.6% exact_2 26.7%
exact_3 20.9% exact_4 12.5% exact_5 6.0%
exact_6 2.4% exact_7plus 1.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 16.4% draw 44.8% away 38.8%
total
over_0.5 64.1% under_0.5 35.9% over_1.5 27.3%
under_1.5 72.7% over_2.5 8.5% under_2.5 91.5%
btts
yes 14.3% no 85.7%
total_exact
exact_0 35.9% exact_1 36.8% exact_2 18.8%
exact_3 6.4% exact_4plus 2.1%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 17.2% draw 38.0% away 44.8%
total
over_0.5 73.3% under_0.5 26.7% over_1.5 38.1%
under_1.5 61.9% over_2.5 14.8% under_2.5 85.2%
btts
yes 20.7% no 79.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 9.8% H/D 4.2% H/A 2.4%
D/H 7.7% D/D 17.0% D/A 20.1%
A/H 0.9% A/D 4.1% A/A 33.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 62.9% under_7.5 37.1% over_8.5 50.1%
under_8.5 49.9% over_9.5 37.8% under_9.5 62.2%
over_10.5 27.0% under_10.5 73.0% over_11.5 18.3%
under_11.5 81.7% over_12.5 11.8% under_12.5 88.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 63.7% under_3.5 36.3% over_4.5 47.2%
under_4.5 52.8% over_5.5 32.5% under_5.5 67.5%
team_away
over_3.5 56.1% under_3.5 43.9% over_4.5 39.2%
under_4.5 60.8% over_5.5 25.3% under_5.5 74.7%
most
home 49.6% draw 11.2% away 39.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 19.9% away_+3.5 80.2% home_-1.5 38.6%
away_+1.5 61.5% home_-0.5 49.6% away_+0.5 50.4%
home_+0.5 60.8% away_-0.5 39.2% home_+1.5 71.1%
away_-1.5 28.9% home_+3.5 86.7% away_-3.5 13.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 49.9% under_22.5 50.1% over_24.5 38.5%
under_24.5 61.5% over_26.5 28.3% under_26.5 71.7%
over_28.5 19.8% under_28.5 80.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 62.0% under_10.5 38.0% over_12.5 46.2%
under_12.5 53.8% over_14.5 32.0% under_14.5 68.0%
team_away
over_10.5 45.6% under_10.5 54.4% over_12.5 29.9%
under_12.5 70.1% over_14.5 18.1% under_14.5 81.9%
most
home 58.7% draw 5.8% away 35.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 35.0% away_+4.5 65.0% home_-2.5 46.7%
away_+2.5 53.3% home_-0.5 58.7% away_+0.5 41.3%
home_+0.5 64.5% away_-0.5 35.5% home_+2.5 75.0%
away_-2.5 25.0% home_+4.5 83.5% away_-4.5 16.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 66.0% under_6.5 34.0% over_7.5 54.1%
under_7.5 45.9% over_8.5 42.5% under_8.5 57.5%
over_9.5 32.1% under_9.5 68.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 60.2% under_3.5 39.8% over_4.5 44.3%
under_4.5 55.8% over_5.5 30.5% under_5.5 69.5%
team_away
over_3.5 48.2% under_3.5 51.8% over_4.5 32.0%
under_4.5 68.0% over_5.5 19.8% under_5.5 80.2%
most
home 52.5% draw 12.0% away 35.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 29.3% away_+2.5 70.7% home_-0.5 52.5%
away_+0.5 47.5% home_+0.5 64.5% away_-0.5 35.5%
home_+2.5 83.8% away_-2.5 16.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 90.4% under_2.5 9.7% over_3.5 78.4%
under_3.5 21.6% over_4.5 62.3% under_4.5 37.8%
over_5.5 44.9% under_5.5 55.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 73.5% under_1.5 26.5% over_2.5 48.5%
under_2.5 51.5%
team_away
over_1.5 76.2% under_1.5 23.8% over_2.5 52.1%
under_2.5 47.9%
most
home 38.7% draw 17.6% away 43.6%
handicap
home_-1.5 23.3% away_+1.5 76.7% home_-0.5 38.7%
away_+0.5 61.3% home_+0.5 56.4% away_-0.5 43.6%
home_+1.5 72.7% away_-1.5 27.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 93.7% under_20.5 6.3% over_22.5 88.1%
under_22.5 11.9% over_24.5 80.0% under_24.5 20.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 88.5% under_9.5 11.5% over_11.5 76.0%
under_11.5 24.0% over_13.5 59.6% under_13.5 40.4%
team_away
over_9.5 89.8% under_9.5 10.2% over_11.5 78.1%
under_11.5 21.9% over_13.5 62.3% under_13.5 37.7%
most
home 44.9% draw 6.3% away 48.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.3% away_+3.5 72.7% home_-0.5 44.9%
away_+0.5 55.1% home_+2.5 63.5% away_-2.5 36.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 20.8% no 79.2%
home
yes 12.9% no 87.1%
away
yes 9.0% no 91.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Kifisia predictions · AEK predictions · Super League Greece

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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