Exeter vs Walsall prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

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Exeter vs Walsall: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

League Two
Exeter

LLWLD

Full time0-0Sat, 5 Sep 202615:00UK
Walsall

LWDWD

Model’s top convictions

73%

Over 1.5 goals

72%

Draw or Walsall

62%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time5 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Exeter 0-0 Walsall
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✕ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✕ First-half goal✕ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
5 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Walsall at 44.4%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 52.7% and it landed (0 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 73.2% and it missed (0 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 74.3% and it landed (0 goals). We called Yes at 52.1% and it missed. We called Yes at 62.4% and it missed. We called Yes at 75.4% and it missed. We called Over 9.5 at 52.6% and it landed (12 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 52.1% and it missed (1 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 53.7% and it landed (21 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 54.5% and it missed (5 shots on target). We called No at 93.6% and it landed.

Match data Exeter Walsall
Goals, 1st half 0 0
Goals, 2nd half 0 0
Shots 13 8
Shots on target 3 2
Corners 4 8
Yellow cards 0 1
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 16 20

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
WalsallWin probability
44.4%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals73.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.37
Draw or Walsall71.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.39
Over 8.5 corners62.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.61

Model read

▾

Our engine prices Walsall at 44% for 5 September 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. The numbers that frame it: • Notably, the model is warmer on Walsall than the market (35%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. • Totals sit close to the fence: 47% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 52%. • Exeter are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. • Recent form reads W1 D2 L3 for Exeter against W2 D2 L2 for Walsall. The recent series reads 1 wins for Exeter, 3 draws and 1 for Walsall over 5 games, 2.0 goals on average. Discipline says sit it out: outside trust zone (model prob 0.44, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals47.3%@ 2.11
Walsall win44.4%@ 2.25
Over 10.5 corners41.1%@ 2.43
Medium risk

Exeter or draw55.7%@ 1.80
Under 2.5 goals52.7%@ 1.90
Both teams to score52.1%@ 1.92
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.0%@ 7.67
0-1 correct score10.5%@ 9.48
1-2 correct score9.0%@ 11.06

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Exeter

28.3%-9.5%

Draw

27.4%-0.1%

Walsall

44.4%+9.6%

ModelMarket

outside trust zone (model prob 0.44, zone (0.45, 0.7))

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.573.2%

Strong chance

Over 2.547.3%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes52.1%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.562.0%

Strong chance

Over 9.551.4%

Good chance

Over 10.541.1%

Toss-up

Over 11.531.8%

Toss-up

Most cornersExeter55.5%Walsall34.0%

Shots markets

Over 22.559.1%

Good chance

Over 24.546.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.534.3%

Toss-up

Over 28.523.9%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.573.2%2.547.3%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.573.2%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

ExeterLLWLD
WalsallLWDWD

Last 5 meetings: Exeter 1 · 3 draws · Walsall 1 · 2.0 goals/game.

2022-01-22Walsall 0-2 Exeter
2021-10-02Exeter 2-2 Walsall
2021-03-02Exeter 0-0 Walsall
2020-10-17Walsall 0-0 Exeter
2020-03-07Walsall 3-1 Exeter

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

ExeterWalsall
League position#15 of 24#3 of 24
Record W-D-L1-1-22-2-0
Current streakD1D1
Record, home vs away1-1-01-1-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.65 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 52% · BTTS in 58%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Exeter win2.453.53
Draw3.303.65
Walsall win2.652.25
Over 2.5 goals1.802.11
Under 2.5 goals2.001.90

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Exeter win3.54
Draw3.65
Walsall win2.25
Both teams to score1.92

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.37
Over 2.5 goals2.11
Over 3.5 goals3.89
Exeter most3.54
Walsall most2.25

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.33
Over 8.5 corners1.56
Over 9.5 corners1.90
Over 10.5 corners2.43
Exeter most1.80
Walsall most2.94

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.38
Over 3.5 cards1.92
Over 4.5 cards3.06
Over 5.5 cards5.53
Exeter most3.02
Walsall most2.19

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.49
Over 7.5 SoT1.83
Over 8.5 SoT2.37
Over 9.5 SoT3.22
Exeter most2.04
Walsall most2.62

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.69
Over 24.5 shots2.16
Over 26.5 shots2.92
Over 28.5 shots4.18
Exeter most1.78
Walsall most2.68

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.49
Over 22.5 fouls1.94
Over 24.5 fouls2.74
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 67.1% Over 7.5 54.5% Over 8.5 42.1% Over 9.5 31.0%
Most: Exeter 49.0% Most: Walsall 38.2%
Exeter Over 4.2 41.9% Walsall Over 4.2 34.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 72.7% Over 3.5 52.1% Over 4.5 32.7%
Most: Exeter 33.2% Most: Walsall 45.7%
Exeter Over 1.8 51.6% Walsall Over 1.8 60.6%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Exeter clean sheet 23.3%
Walsall clean sheet 32.8%
Exeter win to nil 15.0%
Walsall win to nil 24.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 28.3% draw 27.4% away 44.4%
double_chance
1X 55.6% 12 72.6% X2 71.7%
dnb
home 38.9% away 61.1%
btts
yes 52.1% no 47.9%
clean_sheet
home 23.3% away 32.9%
win_to_nil
home 15.0% away 24.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1 17.0% home_by_2 7.9% home_by_3plus 3.4%
away_by_1 22.4% away_by_2 13.5% away_by_3plus 8.5%
correct_score
0-0 8.3% 0-1 10.5% 0-2 8.1%
0-3 3.9% 0-4 1.4% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 7.9% 1-1 13.0% 1-2 9.0%
1-3 4.4% 1-4 1.6% 1-5 0.5%
2-0 4.7% 2-1 6.9% 2-2 5.0%
2-3 2.4% 2-4 0.9% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 1.8% 3-1 2.6% 3-2 1.9%
3-3 0.9% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.5% 4-1 0.7% 4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.5%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.7% under_0.5 8.3% over_1.5 73.2%
under_1.5 26.8% over_2.5 47.3% under_2.5 52.7%
over_3.5 25.7% under_3.5 74.3% over_4.5 11.8%
under_4.5 88.2% over_5.5 4.7% under_5.5 95.3%
odd_even
odd 48.5% even 51.5%
team_home
over_0.5 67.1% under_0.5 32.9% over_1.5 30.5%
under_1.5 69.5% over_2.5 10.2% under_2.5 89.8%
team_away
over_0.5 76.7% under_0.5 23.3% over_1.5 42.7%
under_1.5 57.3% over_2.5 18.0% under_2.5 82.0%
most
home 28.3% draw 27.4% away 44.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 3.4% away_+2.5 96.6% home_-1.5 11.3%
away_+1.5 88.7% home_-0.5 28.3% away_+0.5 71.7%
home_+0.5 55.6% away_-0.5 44.4% home_+1.5 78.0%
away_-1.5 22.0% home_+2.5 91.5% away_-2.5 8.5%
total_exact
exact_0 8.3% exact_1 18.5% exact_2 25.9%
exact_3 21.6% exact_4 13.9% exact_5 7.1%
exact_6 3.1% exact_7plus 1.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 27.8% draw 47.1% away 25.1%
total
over_0.5 62.4% under_0.5 37.6% over_1.5 25.6%
under_1.5 74.4% over_2.5 7.6% under_2.5 92.4%
btts
yes 14.9% no 85.1%
total_exact
exact_0 37.6% exact_1 36.8% exact_2 18.0%
exact_3 5.9% exact_4plus 1.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 34.4% draw 38.2% away 27.5%
total
over_0.5 75.4% under_0.5 24.7% over_1.5 40.8%
under_1.5 59.2% over_2.5 16.7% under_2.5 83.3%
btts
yes 25.2% no 74.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 21.5% H/D 4.6% H/A 1.7%
D/H 16.2% D/D 18.0% D/A 12.9%
A/H 2.2% A/D 5.1% A/A 17.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 75.1% under_7.5 24.9% over_8.5 64.3%
under_8.5 35.7% over_9.5 52.6% under_9.5 47.4%
over_10.5 41.2% under_10.5 58.8% over_11.5 30.9%
under_11.5 69.1% over_12.5 22.1% under_12.5 77.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.5% under_3.5 24.5% over_4.5 60.9%
under_4.5 39.1% over_5.5 46.0% under_5.5 54.0%
team_away
over_3.5 61.7% under_3.5 38.3% over_4.5 44.8%
under_4.5 55.2% over_5.5 30.0% under_5.5 70.0%
most
home 55.6% draw 10.4% away 34.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.4% away_+3.5 74.6% home_-1.5 44.8%
away_+1.5 55.2% home_-0.5 55.6% away_+0.5 44.4%
home_+0.5 65.9% away_-0.5 34.1% home_+1.5 75.2%
away_-1.5 24.8% home_+3.5 88.8% away_-3.5 11.2%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 59.1% under_22.5 40.9% over_24.5 46.3%
under_24.5 53.7% over_26.5 34.3% under_26.5 65.7%
over_28.5 23.9% under_28.5 76.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 67.7% under_10.5 32.3% over_12.5 50.3%
under_12.5 49.7% over_14.5 34.0% under_14.5 66.0%
team_away
over_10.5 54.9% under_10.5 45.1% over_12.5 36.7%
under_12.5 63.3% over_14.5 22.1% under_14.5 77.9%
most
home 56.3% draw 6.3% away 37.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 31.2% away_+4.5 68.8% home_-2.5 43.4%
away_+2.5 56.6% home_-0.5 56.3% away_+0.5 43.7%
home_+0.5 62.6% away_-0.5 37.4% home_+2.5 74.1%
away_-2.5 25.9% home_+4.5 83.4% away_-4.5 16.6%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 67.1% under_6.5 33.0% over_7.5 54.5%
under_7.5 45.5% over_8.5 42.1% under_8.5 57.9%
over_9.5 31.0% under_9.5 69.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 59.1% under_3.5 40.9% over_4.5 41.9%
under_4.5 58.1% over_5.5 27.4% under_5.5 72.6%
team_away
over_3.5 51.4% under_3.5 48.6% over_4.5 34.1%
under_4.5 65.9% over_5.5 20.8% under_5.5 79.2%
most
home 49.0% draw 12.8% away 38.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 25.3% away_+2.5 74.7% home_-0.5 49.0%
away_+0.5 51.0% home_+0.5 61.8% away_-0.5 38.2%
home_+2.5 82.8% away_-2.5 17.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 72.7% under_2.5 27.3% over_3.5 52.1%
under_3.5 47.9% over_4.5 32.7% under_4.5 67.3%
over_5.5 18.1% under_5.5 81.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 51.6% under_1.5 48.4% over_2.5 25.0%
under_2.5 75.0%
team_away
over_1.5 60.7% under_1.5 39.4% over_2.5 33.6%
under_2.5 66.4%
most
home 33.2% draw 21.1% away 45.7%
handicap
home_-1.5 16.6% away_+1.5 83.4% home_-0.5 33.2%
away_+0.5 66.8% home_+0.5 54.3% away_-0.5 45.7%
home_+1.5 73.9% away_-1.5 26.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 67.0% under_20.5 33.0% over_22.5 51.6%
under_22.5 48.4% over_24.5 36.5% under_24.5 63.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 64.1% under_9.5 35.9% over_11.5 41.7%
under_11.5 58.3% over_13.5 22.8% under_13.5 77.2%
team_away
over_9.5 73.5% under_9.5 26.5% over_11.5 52.6%
under_11.5 47.4% over_13.5 32.2% under_13.5 67.8%
most
home 38.5% draw 7.7% away 53.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 18.9% away_+3.5 81.1% home_-0.5 38.5%
away_+0.5 61.5% home_+2.5 61.7% away_-2.5 38.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 6.4% no 93.6%
home
yes 2.9% no 97.1%
away
yes 3.6% no 96.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Exeter predictions · Walsall predictions · League Two

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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League TwoExeterWalsallTrack record