Dresden vs Bochum prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

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Dresden vs Bochum: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

2. Bundesliga
Dresden

LWLWL

Full time1-2Sat, 5 Sep 202619:30UK
Bochum

DWLWL

Model’s top convictions

77%

Over 1.5 goals

68%

Dresden or draw

67%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time10 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Dresden 1-2 Bochum
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✕ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
10 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Dresden at 41.7%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 52.5% and it landed (3 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 77.1% and it landed (3 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 69.7% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 56.7% and it landed. We called Yes at 74.4% and it landed. We called Yes at 76.1% and it missed. We called Over 9.5 at 58.1% and it landed (12 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 62.9% and it landed (8 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 62.0% and it landed (30 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 65.9% and it landed (10 shots on target). We called No at 86.9% and it landed.

Match data Dresden Bochum
Goals, 1st half 1 2
Goals, 2nd half 0 0
Shots 15 15
Shots on target 4 6
Corners 8 4
Yellow cards 1 7
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 10 15

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
DresdenWin probability
41.7%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals77.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.30
Dresden or draw68.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.47
Over 8.5 corners66.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.50

Model read

▾

Dresden versus Bochum in the 2. Bundesliga on 5 September 2026 is finely balanced. Dresden edge it at 42%, but the gap to the field is slim. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Dresden at 45%. Caution noted. No strong lean on goals (52% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for Dresden, 2 draws and 1 for Bochum, averaging 3.2 goals a game. Recent form reads W3 D0 L3 for Dresden against W2 D2 L2 for Bochum. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.027 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners45.8%@ 2.18
Over 11.5 corners36.0%@ 2.78
Bochum win31.9%@ 3.13
Medium risk

Draw or Bochum58.3%@ 1.72
Both teams to score56.7%@ 1.76
Over 9.5 corners56.3%@ 1.78
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.5%@ 7.99
2-1 correct score8.9%@ 11.21
1-0 correct score8.7%@ 11.48

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Dresden

41.7%-3.6%

Draw

26.4%+0.8%

Bochum

31.9%+2.7%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.027 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.577.1%

Strong chance

Over 2.552.5%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes56.7%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.566.8%

Strong chance

Over 9.556.3%

Good chance

Over 10.545.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.536.0%

Toss-up

Most cornersDresden52.3%Bochum37.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.573.8%

Strong chance

Over 24.562.0%

Strong chance

Over 26.549.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.537.0%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.577.1%2.552.5%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.577.1%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

DresdenLWLWL
BochumDWLWL

Last 5 meetings: Dresden 2 · 2 draws · Bochum 1 · 3.2 goals/game.

2026-04-18Dresden 2-0 Bochum
2025-11-21Bochum 1-2 Dresden
2020-02-22Dresden 1-2 Bochum
2019-09-15Bochum 2-2 Dresden
2019-03-03Dresden 2-2 Bochum

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

DresdenBochum
League position#15 of 18#11 of 18
Record W-D-L1-0-21-0-2
Current streakL1L1
Record, home vs away1-0-01-0-0
Red cards this season10

League averages this season: 3.59 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 63% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Dresden win2.052.40
Draw3.503.79
Bochum win3.103.13
Over 2.5 goals1.621.90
Under 2.5 goals2.252.11

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Dresden win2.40
Draw3.79
Bochum win3.14
Both teams to score1.77

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.30
Over 2.5 goals1.90
Over 3.5 goals3.30
Dresden most2.40
Bochum most3.14

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.25
Over 8.5 corners1.44
Over 9.5 corners1.72
Over 10.5 corners2.15
Dresden most1.91
Bochum most2.69

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.24
Over 3.5 cards1.59
Over 4.5 cards2.29
Over 5.5 cards3.71
Dresden most3.34
Bochum most1.97

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.29
Over 7.5 SoT1.52
Over 8.5 SoT1.87
Over 9.5 SoT2.41
Dresden most1.78
Bochum most3.16

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.36
Over 24.5 shots1.61
Over 26.5 shots2.03
Over 28.5 shots2.70
Dresden most1.70
Bochum most2.86

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.48
Over 22.5 fouls1.89
Over 24.5 fouls2.59
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 77.3% Over 7.5 65.9% Over 8.5 53.6% Over 9.5 41.4%
Most: Dresden 56.3% Most: Bochum 31.6%
Dresden Over 4.2 54.9% Bochum Over 4.2 36.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 80.7% Over 3.5 62.9% Over 4.5 43.7%
Most: Dresden 29.9% Most: Bochum 50.9%
Dresden Over 1.8 56.2% Bochum Over 1.8 70.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Dresden clean sheet 27.7%
Bochum clean sheet 22.3%
Dresden win to nil 20.8%
Bochum win to nil 15.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 41.7% draw 26.4% away 31.9%
double_chance
1X 68.1% 12 73.6% X2 58.3%
dnb
home 56.7% away 43.3%
btts
yes 56.7% no 43.4%
clean_sheet
home 27.8% away 22.4%
win_to_nil
home 21.0% away 15.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.0% home_by_2 12.6% home_by_3plus 8.1%
away_by_1 17.9% away_by_2 9.2% away_by_3plus 4.8%
correct_score
0-0 6.8% 0-1 7.4% 0-2 5.1%
0-3 2.2% 0-4 0.7% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 8.7% 1-1 12.5% 1-2 7.6%
1-3 3.3% 1-4 1.0% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 7.0% 2-1 8.9% 2-2 5.7%
2-3 2.4% 2-4 0.8% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 3.5% 3-1 4.5% 3-2 2.9%
3-3 1.2% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.3% 4-1 1.7% 4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.5% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.2% under_0.5 6.8% over_1.5 77.1%
under_1.5 22.9% over_2.5 52.5% under_2.5 47.5%
over_3.5 30.3% under_3.5 69.7% over_4.5 14.9%
under_4.5 85.1% over_5.5 6.3% under_5.5 93.7%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 77.6% under_0.5 22.4% over_1.5 44.1%
under_1.5 55.9% over_2.5 19.1% under_2.5 81.0%
team_away
over_0.5 72.2% under_0.5 27.8% over_1.5 36.6%
under_1.5 63.4% over_2.5 13.8% under_2.5 86.2%
most
home 41.7% draw 26.4% away 31.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 8.1% away_+2.5 91.9% home_-1.5 20.7%
away_+1.5 79.3% home_-0.5 41.7% away_+0.5 58.3%
home_+0.5 68.1% away_-0.5 31.9% home_+1.5 86.0%
away_-1.5 14.0% home_+2.5 95.2% away_-2.5 4.8%
total_exact
exact_0 6.8% exact_1 16.1% exact_2 24.6%
exact_3 22.2% exact_4 15.4% exact_5 8.6%
exact_6 4.0% exact_7plus 2.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 42.4% draw 37.8% away 19.8%
total
over_0.5 74.4% under_0.5 25.6% over_1.5 39.5%
under_1.5 60.5% over_2.5 15.8% under_2.5 84.3%
btts
yes 22.6% no 77.4%
total_exact
exact_0 25.6% exact_1 34.9% exact_2 23.8%
exact_3 10.8% exact_4plus 5.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 27.2% draw 37.6% away 35.2%
total
over_0.5 76.1% under_0.5 23.9% over_1.5 41.9%
under_1.5 58.1% over_2.5 17.4% under_2.5 82.6%
btts
yes 25.9% no 74.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 31.4% H/D 7.6% H/A 3.4%
D/H 10.3% D/D 14.2% D/A 13.3%
A/H 1.2% A/D 3.3% A/A 15.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 79.7% under_7.5 20.3% over_8.5 69.5%
under_8.5 30.5% over_9.5 58.1% under_9.5 41.9%
over_10.5 46.4% under_10.5 53.6% over_11.5 35.4%
under_11.5 64.6% over_12.5 25.8% under_12.5 74.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.0% under_3.5 23.0% over_4.5 62.5%
under_4.5 37.5% over_5.5 47.3% under_5.5 52.7%
team_away
over_3.5 67.9% under_3.5 32.1% over_4.5 51.3%
under_4.5 48.7% over_5.5 35.8% under_5.5 64.3%
most
home 52.4% draw 10.5% away 37.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.0% away_+3.5 77.0% home_-1.5 41.8%
away_+1.5 58.2% home_-0.5 52.4% away_+0.5 47.6%
home_+0.5 62.9% away_-0.5 37.1% home_+1.5 72.5%
away_-1.5 27.5% home_+3.5 87.1% away_-3.5 13.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 73.8% under_22.5 26.3% over_24.5 62.0%
under_24.5 38.1% over_26.5 49.3% under_26.5 50.7%
over_28.5 37.0% under_28.5 63.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 78.7% under_10.5 21.3% over_12.5 63.1%
under_12.5 37.0% over_14.5 46.0% under_14.5 54.0%
team_away
over_10.5 64.7% under_10.5 35.3% over_12.5 46.0%
under_12.5 54.0% over_14.5 29.3% under_14.5 70.7%
most
home 59.0% draw 6.1% away 34.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 33.8% away_+4.5 66.2% home_-2.5 46.2%
away_+2.5 53.8% home_-0.5 59.0% away_+0.5 41.1%
home_+0.5 65.1% away_-0.5 34.9% home_+2.5 76.1%
away_-2.5 23.9% home_+4.5 84.8% away_-4.5 15.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 77.3% under_6.5 22.7% over_7.5 65.9%
under_7.5 34.1% over_8.5 53.6% under_8.5 46.4%
over_9.5 41.4% under_9.5 58.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 71.4% under_3.5 28.6% over_4.5 54.9%
under_4.5 45.1% over_5.5 38.8% under_5.5 61.2%
team_away
over_3.5 55.1% under_3.5 44.9% over_4.5 36.9%
under_4.5 63.1% over_5.5 22.4% under_5.5 77.6%
most
home 56.3% draw 12.1% away 31.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 31.8% away_+2.5 68.2% home_-0.5 56.3%
away_+0.5 43.7% home_+0.5 68.4% away_-0.5 31.6%
home_+2.5 86.7% away_-2.5 13.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 80.7% under_2.5 19.3% over_3.5 62.9%
under_3.5 37.1% over_4.5 43.7% under_4.5 56.3%
over_5.5 26.9% under_5.5 73.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 56.2% under_1.5 43.8% over_2.5 29.2%
under_2.5 70.8%
team_away
over_1.5 70.3% under_1.5 29.7% over_2.5 44.4%
under_2.5 55.6%
most
home 30.0% draw 19.2% away 50.9%
handicap
home_-1.5 15.3% away_+1.5 84.7% home_-0.5 30.0%
away_+0.5 70.1% home_+0.5 49.1% away_-0.5 50.9%
home_+1.5 68.2% away_-1.5 31.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 67.4% under_20.5 32.6% over_22.5 53.0%
under_22.5 47.0% over_24.5 38.6% under_24.5 61.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 56.6% under_9.5 43.4% over_11.5 35.0%
under_11.5 65.0% over_13.5 18.5% under_13.5 81.5%
team_away
over_9.5 78.6% under_9.5 21.4% over_11.5 60.4%
under_11.5 39.6% over_13.5 40.9% under_13.5 59.1%
most
home 29.2% draw 6.7% away 64.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 13.4% away_+3.5 86.7% home_-0.5 29.2%
away_+0.5 70.9% home_+2.5 50.5% away_-2.5 49.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 13.1% no 86.9%
home
yes 7.4% no 92.7%
away
yes 6.2% no 93.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Dresden predictions · Bochum predictions · 2. Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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2. BundesligaDresdenBochumTrack record