League TwoCrawley Town vs Bristol Rvs Cards
Result
Settled, final score 0-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 59.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 78.3% for over 2.5 to 23.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 59.5%. Between the two sides, Bristol Rvs are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.8%, with a level count at 20.0%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 78.3% | 21.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 23.8% | 76.2% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
56.4%
29.5%
65.8%
39.2%
Card handicap
| Crawley Town line | Crawley Town | Bristol Rvs |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.3% | 82.8% |
| -0.5 | 33.2% | 66.8% |
| +0.5 | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| +1.5 | 72.2% | 27.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 75.4% | 24.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 61.6% | 38.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 46.5% | 53.5% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Crawley Town vs Bristol Rvs. The model leans toward Bristol Rvs for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
59.5%Over 3.5 cards26.0%Any red card56.4%Crawley Town over 1.5 cards65.8%Bristol Rvs over 1.5 cards61.6%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Crawley Town over 1.5 cards sits at 56.4% and Bristol Rvs at 65.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 26.0% (Crawley Town 13.1%, Bristol Rvs 14.8%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Crawley Town vs Bristol Rvs?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 59.5% for Crawley Town vs Bristol Rvs.
Will there be a red card in Crawley Town vs Bristol Rvs?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 26.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Crawley Town vs Bristol Rvs?
Before kickoff, the model rated Bristol Rvs to pick up more cards at 46.8%, with a level count at 20.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.