Bristol Rvs vs Colchester: model prediction
League TwoOver 1.5 goals
Bristol Rvs or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Full time7 of 11 calls right
Our most likely call was Bristol Rvs at 39.4%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 51.2% and it landed (2 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 74.4% and it landed (2 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 73.0% and it landed (2 goals). We called Yes at 53.9% and it missed. We called Yes at 67.1% and it landed. We called Yes at 78.7% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 51.2% and it missed (5 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 59.4% and it landed (4 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 55.3% and it missed (37 shots). We called Under 7.5 at 50.9% and it missed (9 shots on target). We called No at 83.9% and it landed.
| Match data | Bristol Rvs | Colchester |
|---|---|---|
| Goals, 1st half | 1 | 0 |
| Goals, 2nd half | 1 | 0 |
| Shots | 24 | 13 |
| Shots on target | 8 | 1 |
| Corners | 3 | 2 |
| Yellow cards | 3 | 1 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 17 | 9 |
Final match data.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Bristol Rvs versus Colchester in the League Two on 1 September 2026 is finely balanced. Bristol Rvs edge it at 39%, but the gap to the field is slim. The numbers that frame it: • Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Bristol Rvs higher (53%) than our model does. • No strong lean on goals (49% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • The recent series reads 1 wins for Bristol Rvs, 2 draws and 1 for Colchester over 4 games, 1.5 goals on average. • Form guide over the last six: Bristol Rvs W4 D1 L1, Colchester W3 D1 L2. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.23)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
39.4%-13.9%
27.4%+3.6%
33.2%+10.4%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.23)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Bristol Rvs 1 · 2 draws · Colchester 1 · 1.5 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
League averages this season: 2.50 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 50%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 62.1% | Over 7.5 | 49.1% | Over 8.5 | 36.9% | Over 9.5 | 26.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Bristol Rvs | 51.3% | Most: Colchester | 35.6% | ||||
| Bristol Rvs Over 4.2 | 39.8% | Colchester Over 4.2 | 28.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 78.2% | Over 3.5 | 59.4% | Over 4.5 | 39.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Bristol Rvs | 37.8% | Most: Colchester | 42.0% | ||
| Bristol Rvs Over 1.8 | 59.8% | Colchester Over 1.8 | 62.7% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Bristol Rvs clean sheet | 28.7% |
|---|---|
| Colchester clean sheet | 25.1% |
| Bristol Rvs win to nil | 20.8% |
| Colchester win to nil | 17.2% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 39.4% | draw | 27.4% | away | 33.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 66.8% | 12 | 72.6% | X2 | 60.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 54.3% | away | 45.7% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 53.9% | no | 46.1% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 28.8% | away | 25.2% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 20.9% | away | 17.3% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 20.8% | home_by_2 | 11.8% | home_by_3plus | 6.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 18.7% | away_by_2 | 9.6% | away_by_3plus | 4.9% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 7.9% | 0-1 | 8.4% | 0-2 | 5.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.3% | 0-4 | 0.7% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 9.4% | 1-1 | 13.1% | 1-2 | 7.8% |
| 1-3 | 3.2% | 1-4 | 1.0% | 1-5 | 0.3% |
| 2-0 | 6.9% | 2-1 | 8.6% | 2-2 | 5.4% |
| 2-3 | 2.2% | 2-4 | 0.7% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 3.2% | 3-1 | 4.0% | 3-2 | 2.5% |
| 3-3 | 1.0% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.1% | 4-1 | 1.4% | 4-2 | 0.9% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.3% | 5-1 | 0.4% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 92.1% | under_0.5 | 7.9% | over_1.5 | 74.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 25.6% | over_2.5 | 48.8% | under_2.5 | 51.2% |
| over_3.5 | 27.0% | under_3.5 | 73.0% | over_4.5 | 12.7% |
| under_4.5 | 87.4% | over_5.5 | 5.1% | under_5.5 | 94.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 74.9% | under_0.5 | 25.2% | over_1.5 | 40.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 59.9% | over_2.5 | 16.2% | under_2.5 | 83.8% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 71.2% | under_0.5 | 28.8% | over_1.5 | 35.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 64.6% | over_2.5 | 13.1% | under_2.5 | 86.9% |
most
| home | 39.4% | draw | 27.4% | away | 33.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 6.8% | away_+2.5 | 93.2% | home_-1.5 | 18.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 81.4% | home_-0.5 | 39.4% | away_+0.5 | 60.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.8% | away_-0.5 | 33.2% | home_+1.5 | 85.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 14.5% | home_+2.5 | 95.2% | away_-2.5 | 4.9% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 7.9% | exact_1 | 17.8% | exact_2 | 25.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.8% | exact_4 | 14.3% | exact_5 | 7.5% |
| exact_6 | 3.3% | exact_7plus | 1.8% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 33.3% | draw | 43.7% | away | 23.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 67.1% | under_0.5 | 32.9% | over_1.5 | 30.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 69.5% | over_2.5 | 10.2% | under_2.5 | 89.8% |
btts
| yes | 17.8% | no | 82.2% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 32.9% | exact_1 | 36.6% | exact_2 | 20.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 7.5% | exact_4plus | 2.7% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 30.4% | draw | 36.0% | away | 33.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 78.7% | under_0.5 | 21.3% | over_1.5 | 45.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 54.2% | over_2.5 | 20.3% | under_2.5 | 79.7% |
btts
| yes | 29.0% | no | 71.0% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 24.3% | H/D | 6.1% | H/A | 2.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 13.3% | D/D | 15.7% | D/A | 14.7% |
| A/H | 1.8% | A/D | 4.2% | A/A | 17.1% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 74.2% | under_7.5 | 25.8% | over_8.5 | 63.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 37.0% | over_9.5 | 51.2% | under_9.5 | 48.8% |
| over_10.5 | 39.8% | under_10.5 | 60.2% | over_11.5 | 29.5% |
| under_11.5 | 70.5% | over_12.5 | 21.0% | under_12.5 | 79.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 75.1% | under_3.5 | 24.9% | over_4.5 | 60.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 39.6% | over_5.5 | 45.4% | under_5.5 | 54.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 60.6% | under_3.5 | 39.4% | over_4.5 | 43.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.5% | over_5.5 | 28.8% | under_5.5 | 71.2% |
most
| home | 56.0% | draw | 10.5% | away | 33.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 25.5% | away_+3.5 | 74.6% | home_-1.5 | 45.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 54.8% | home_-0.5 | 56.0% | away_+0.5 | 44.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.5% | away_-0.5 | 33.5% | home_+1.5 | 75.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 24.2% | home_+3.5 | 89.3% | away_-3.5 | 10.7% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 57.5% | under_22.5 | 42.5% | over_24.5 | 44.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 55.3% | over_26.5 | 32.8% | under_26.5 | 67.2% |
| over_28.5 | 22.7% | under_28.5 | 77.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 68.0% | under_10.5 | 32.0% | over_12.5 | 50.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 49.4% | over_14.5 | 34.3% | under_14.5 | 65.7% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 52.2% | under_10.5 | 47.8% | over_12.5 | 34.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 65.9% | over_14.5 | 20.0% | under_14.5 | 80.0% |
most
| home | 58.4% | draw | 6.3% | away | 35.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 33.0% | away_+4.5 | 67.0% | home_-2.5 | 45.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 54.6% | home_-0.5 | 58.4% | away_+0.5 | 41.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.7% | away_-0.5 | 35.3% | home_+2.5 | 75.9% |
| away_-2.5 | 24.1% | home_+4.5 | 84.9% | away_-4.5 | 15.2% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 62.1% | under_6.5 | 37.9% | over_7.5 | 49.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 50.9% | over_8.5 | 36.9% | under_8.5 | 63.1% |
| over_9.5 | 26.3% | under_9.5 | 73.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 57.0% | under_3.5 | 43.0% | over_4.5 | 39.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.2% | over_5.5 | 25.6% | under_5.5 | 74.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 45.7% | under_3.5 | 54.3% | over_4.5 | 28.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 71.2% | over_5.5 | 16.6% | under_5.5 | 83.4% |
most
| home | 51.3% | draw | 13.1% | away | 35.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 26.5% | away_+2.5 | 73.5% | home_-0.5 | 51.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 48.7% | home_+0.5 | 64.4% | away_-0.5 | 35.6% |
| home_+2.5 | 85.0% | away_-2.5 | 15.0% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 78.2% | under_2.5 | 21.8% | over_3.5 | 59.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 40.6% | over_4.5 | 39.9% | under_4.5 | 60.1% |
| over_5.5 | 23.8% | under_5.5 | 76.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 59.8% | under_1.5 | 40.2% | over_2.5 | 32.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 67.2% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 62.7% | under_1.5 | 37.3% | over_2.5 | 35.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 64.2% |
most
| home | 37.8% | draw | 20.3% | away | 42.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 20.6% | away_+1.5 | 79.4% | home_-0.5 | 37.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 62.3% | home_+0.5 | 58.0% | away_-0.5 | 42.0% |
| home_+1.5 | 76.1% | away_-1.5 | 23.9% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 73.9% | under_20.5 | 26.1% | over_22.5 | 59.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 40.3% | over_24.5 | 44.6% | under_24.5 | 55.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 80.0% | under_9.5 | 20.0% | over_11.5 | 61.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 38.7% | over_13.5 | 40.7% | under_13.5 | 59.3% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 66.5% | under_9.5 | 33.5% | over_11.5 | 44.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 55.8% | over_13.5 | 24.9% | under_13.5 | 75.1% |
most
| home | 58.3% | draw | 7.3% | away | 34.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 35.7% | away_+3.5 | 64.3% | home_-0.5 | 58.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 41.7% | home_+2.5 | 78.4% | away_-2.5 | 21.6% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 16.1% | no | 83.9% |
|---|
home
| yes | 11.4% | no | 88.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 5.4% | no | 94.6% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Bristol Rvs predictions · Colchester predictions · League Two
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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