Blackburn vs QPR: model prediction
ChampionshipOver 1.5 goals
Blackburn or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Full time0 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Blackburn at 39.9%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 56.7% and it missed (3 goals). We called No at 50.5% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Little between these two in the data. Blackburn at 40% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 29 August 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Bookmakers see it the same way, 37% on Blackburn, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. 2) This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 43% with both teams to score at 50%. 3) History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Blackburn, 0 draws and 3 for QPR at 2.6 goals per match. Recent form reads W2 D2 L2 for Blackburn against W1 D1 L4 for QPR. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.027 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
39.9%+2.7%
28.7%+1.0%
31.3%-3.7%
value_gap +0.027 <= 0.03
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Blackburn 2 · 0 draws · QPR 3 · 2.6 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
League averages this season: 2.88 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 75% · BTTS in 79%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 61.6% | Over 7.5 | 48.2% | Over 8.5 | 35.6% | Over 9.5 | 24.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Blackburn | 51.3% | Most: QPR | 35.2% | ||||
| Blackburn Over 4.2 | 39.0% | QPR Over 4.2 | 27.9% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 70.7% | Over 3.5 | 49.6% | Over 4.5 | 30.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Blackburn | 36.8% | Most: QPR | 41.4% | ||
| Blackburn Over 1.8 | 52.8% | QPR Over 1.8 | 56.2% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Blackburn clean sheet | 32.7% |
|---|---|
| QPR clean sheet | 27.4% |
| Blackburn win to nil | 23.1% |
| QPR win to nil | 17.8% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 39.9% | draw | 28.7% | away | 31.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 68.7% | 12 | 71.3% | X2 | 60.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 56.1% | away | 44.0% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 49.5% | no | 50.5% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 32.8% | away | 27.4% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 23.1% | away | 17.8% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 21.6% | home_by_2 | 11.9% | home_by_3plus | 6.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 18.6% | away_by_2 | 8.8% | away_by_3plus | 3.9% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 9.6% | 0-1 | 9.4% | 0-2 | 5.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.1% | 0-4 | 0.6% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 11.0% | 1-1 | 13.6% | 1-2 | 7.2% |
| 1-3 | 2.7% | 1-4 | 0.8% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 7.5% | 2-1 | 8.4% | 2-2 | 4.7% |
| 2-3 | 1.7% | 2-4 | 0.5% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 3.3% | 3-1 | 3.6% | 3-2 | 2.0% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.1% | 4-1 | 1.2% | 4-2 | 0.7% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.3% | 5-1 | 0.3% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.3% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 90.4% | under_0.5 | 9.6% | over_1.5 | 70.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 30.0% | over_2.5 | 43.3% | under_2.5 | 56.7% |
| over_3.5 | 22.4% | under_3.5 | 77.6% | over_4.5 | 9.7% |
| under_4.5 | 90.3% | over_5.5 | 3.6% | under_5.5 | 96.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.3% | even | 51.7% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 72.6% | under_0.5 | 27.4% | over_1.5 | 37.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 62.9% | over_2.5 | 14.2% | under_2.5 | 85.8% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 67.3% | under_0.5 | 32.8% | over_1.5 | 30.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 69.3% | over_2.5 | 10.3% | under_2.5 | 89.7% |
most
| home | 39.9% | draw | 28.7% | away | 31.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 6.4% | away_+2.5 | 93.6% | home_-1.5 | 18.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 81.7% | home_-0.5 | 39.9% | away_+0.5 | 60.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.7% | away_-0.5 | 31.3% | home_+1.5 | 87.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 12.7% | home_+2.5 | 96.1% | away_-2.5 | 3.9% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 9.6% | exact_1 | 20.3% | exact_2 | 26.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.0% | exact_4 | 12.6% | exact_5 | 6.1% |
| exact_6 | 2.5% | exact_7plus | 1.2% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 35.1% | draw | 42.3% | away | 22.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 68.9% | under_0.5 | 31.1% | over_1.5 | 32.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.4% | over_2.5 | 11.4% | under_2.5 | 88.6% |
btts
| yes | 19.1% | no | 81.0% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 31.1% | exact_1 | 36.3% | exact_2 | 21.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 8.3% | exact_4plus | 3.1% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 30.0% | draw | 41.1% | away | 28.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 71.2% | under_0.5 | 28.8% | over_1.5 | 35.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 64.7% | over_2.5 | 13.0% | under_2.5 | 87.0% |
btts
| yes | 21.4% | no | 78.6% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 27.3% | H/D | 5.8% | H/A | 2.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 12.7% | D/D | 17.4% | D/A | 12.2% |
| A/H | 1.5% | A/D | 4.2% | A/A | 16.9% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 80.5% | under_7.5 | 19.5% | over_8.5 | 70.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 29.4% | over_9.5 | 59.3% | under_9.5 | 40.7% |
| over_10.5 | 47.7% | under_10.5 | 52.3% | over_11.5 | 36.7% |
| under_11.5 | 63.3% | over_12.5 | 27.0% | under_12.5 | 73.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 79.6% | under_3.5 | 20.4% | over_4.5 | 66.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 34.1% | over_5.5 | 51.2% | under_5.5 | 48.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 65.6% | under_3.5 | 34.4% | over_4.5 | 48.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 51.3% | over_5.5 | 33.4% | under_5.5 | 66.6% |
most
| home | 56.7% | draw | 10.1% | away | 33.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.7% | away_+3.5 | 73.3% | home_-1.5 | 46.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 53.9% | home_-0.5 | 56.7% | away_+0.5 | 43.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.8% | away_-0.5 | 33.2% | home_+1.5 | 75.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 24.2% | home_+3.5 | 89.0% | away_-3.5 | 11.0% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 58.3% | under_22.5 | 41.7% | over_24.5 | 45.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 54.4% | over_26.5 | 33.7% | under_26.5 | 66.3% |
| over_28.5 | 23.4% | under_28.5 | 76.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 69.1% | under_10.5 | 30.9% | over_12.5 | 52.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 47.9% | over_14.5 | 35.7% | under_14.5 | 64.3% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 51.9% | under_10.5 | 48.1% | over_12.5 | 33.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 66.1% | over_14.5 | 19.9% | under_14.5 | 80.1% |
most
| home | 59.6% | draw | 6.2% | away | 34.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 34.3% | away_+4.5 | 65.8% | home_-2.5 | 46.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 53.3% | home_-0.5 | 59.6% | away_+0.5 | 40.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 65.7% | away_-0.5 | 34.3% | home_+2.5 | 76.7% |
| away_-2.5 | 23.3% | home_+4.5 | 85.4% | away_-4.5 | 14.6% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 61.6% | under_6.5 | 38.4% | over_7.5 | 48.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 51.8% | over_8.5 | 35.6% | under_8.5 | 64.4% |
| over_9.5 | 24.9% | under_9.5 | 75.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 56.8% | under_3.5 | 43.2% | over_4.5 | 39.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 61.0% | over_5.5 | 24.5% | under_5.5 | 75.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 45.2% | under_3.5 | 54.8% | over_4.5 | 27.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 72.1% | over_5.5 | 15.6% | under_5.5 | 84.4% |
most
| home | 51.3% | draw | 13.5% | away | 35.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 25.8% | away_+2.5 | 74.2% | home_-0.5 | 51.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 48.7% | home_+0.5 | 64.8% | away_-0.5 | 35.2% |
| home_+2.5 | 85.6% | away_-2.5 | 14.4% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 70.7% | under_2.5 | 29.3% | over_3.5 | 49.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 50.4% | over_4.5 | 30.4% | under_4.5 | 69.6% |
| over_5.5 | 16.3% | under_5.5 | 83.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 52.8% | under_1.5 | 47.2% | over_2.5 | 26.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 73.9% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 56.2% | under_1.5 | 43.8% | over_2.5 | 29.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 70.8% |
most
| home | 36.8% | draw | 21.7% | away | 41.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 19.0% | away_+1.5 | 81.0% | home_-0.5 | 36.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 63.2% | home_+0.5 | 58.6% | away_-0.5 | 41.4% |
| home_+1.5 | 77.6% | away_-1.5 | 22.4% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 52.0% | under_20.5 | 48.0% | over_22.5 | 36.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 63.7% | over_24.5 | 23.1% | under_24.5 | 77.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 52.9% | under_9.5 | 47.1% | over_11.5 | 30.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 69.2% | over_13.5 | 14.9% | under_13.5 | 85.1% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 64.2% | under_9.5 | 35.8% | over_11.5 | 42.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 58.0% | over_13.5 | 23.3% | under_13.5 | 76.7% |
most
| home | 37.8% | draw | 8.0% | away | 54.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 17.8% | away_+3.5 | 82.3% | home_-0.5 | 37.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 62.2% | home_+2.5 | 61.9% | away_-2.5 | 38.1% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 6.9% | no | 93.1% |
|---|
home
| yes | 2.3% | no | 97.8% |
|---|
away
| yes | 4.7% | no | 95.3% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Blackburn predictions · QPR predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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