Eredivisie
Ajax vs 
Heerenveen Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Result
We called Over 2.5 at 58.1% and it landed.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 2.5 goals at 58.1%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Ajax have averaged 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded, Heerenveen 1.0 and 0.6 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 58.1% for over 2.5 and 80.9% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.0 goals a game. Ajax have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Heerenveen in 1 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 94.6% | 5.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 80.9% | 19.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| 3.5 goals | 35.7% | 64.3% |
| 4.5 goals | 18.8% | 81.2% |
| 5.5 goals | 8.6% | 91.4% |
Team goal lines
85.4%
57.4%
30.3%
66.5%
29.9%
9.9%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 76.0% | 24.0% |
| 1.5 goals | 41.8% | 58.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 17.3% | 82.7% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 79.1% | 20.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 20.8% | 79.2% |
This season (2026/27)
2.0Ajax goals scored per game0.0Ajax goals conceded per game0.0%Ajax Over 2.5 rate0.0Ajax 1st-half goals per game1.0Heerenveen goals scored per game0.0Heerenveen goals conceded per game0.0%Heerenveen Over 2.5 rate0.0Heerenveen 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
57.3%Both Teams to Score58.1%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 58.1% for three or more goals and 80.9% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Ajax favoured at 56.2%, a competitive game tends to open up.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Ajax to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Ajax 2 · 2 draws · Heerenveen 1 · 2.0 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Were there over 2.5 goals in Ajax vs Heerenveen?
We rated Over 2.5 goals at 58.1%. The match finished with 4 goals (2-2), over 2.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 18,212 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 53.9% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.