Andorra vs Eibar prediction & probabilities (2026-08-30)

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Andorra vs Eibar: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 29 Aug 2026

Segunda División
Andorra

LLLWL

Full time0-1Sun, 30 Aug 202616:00UK
Eibar

LWLLW

Model’s top convictions

74%

Over 1.5 goals

72%

Andorra or draw

55%

Draw or Eibar

Full time4 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Andorra 0-1 Eibar
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✕ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✕ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✕ Red card
4 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Andorra at 44.5%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 52.2% and it landed (1 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 73.6% and it missed (1 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 73.9% and it landed (1 goals). We called Yes at 52.4% and it missed. We called Yes at 63.6% and it missed. We called Yes at 79.1% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 55.4% and it landed (8 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 75.2% and it missed (1 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 52.9% and it missed (32 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 52.4% and it missed (6 shots on target). We called No at 86.4% and it missed.

Match data Andorra Eibar
Goals, 1st half 0 0
Goals, 2nd half 0 1
Shots 28 4
Shots on target 5 1
Corners 6 2
Yellow cards 1 0
Red cards 0 1
Fouls 11 5

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
AndorraWin probability
44.5%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals73.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.36
Andorra or draw71.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.39
Draw or Eibar55.5%Good chancePays @ 1.80

Model read

▾

A measured edge to Andorra: 44% is the model's line for this Segunda División meeting on 30 August 2026. The market broadly agrees, pricing Andorra at 46%. Totals sit close to the fence: 48% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 52%. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 0 wins for Andorra, 2 draws and 3 for Eibar, averaging 1.8 goals a game. Form guide over the last six: Andorra W2 D0 L4, Eibar W3 D0 L3. Verdict: no bet. Conservative ev -0.040 <= 0.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals47.8%@ 2.09
Over 9.5 corners44.1%@ 2.27
Over 10.5 corners33.9%@ 2.95
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners55.3%@ 1.81
Both teams to score52.4%@ 1.91
Under 2.5 goals52.2%@ 1.92
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.0%@ 7.70
1-0 correct score10.4%@ 9.59
2-1 correct score9.1%@ 11.04

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Andorra

44.5%-1.1%

Draw

27.2%-2.2%

Eibar

28.3%+3.3%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.040 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.573.6%

Strong chance

Over 2.547.8%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes52.4%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.555.3%

Good chance

Over 9.544.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.533.9%

Toss-up

Over 11.525.1%

Low chance

Most cornersAndorra61.0%Eibar28.3%

Shots markets

Over 22.560.1%

Strong chance

Over 24.547.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.534.6%

Toss-up

Over 28.523.8%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.573.6%2.547.8%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.573.6%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

AndorraLLLWL
EibarLWLLW

Last 5 meetings: Andorra 0 · 2 draws · Eibar 3 · 1.8 goals/game.

2026-03-21Andorra 0-1 Eibar
2025-09-08Eibar 2-0 Andorra
2024-04-14Andorra 0-2 Eibar
2023-12-10Eibar 2-2 Andorra
2023-03-26Eibar 0-0 Andorra

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

AndorraEibar
League position#8 of 22#14 of 22
Record W-D-L1-0-11-0-1
Current streakL1W1
Record, home vs away1-0-0·
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.27 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 41% · BTTS in 41%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Andorra win2.052.25
Draw3.103.68
Eibar win3.603.53
Over 2.5 goals2.152.09
Under 2.5 goals1.671.92

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Andorra win2.25
Draw3.67
Eibar win3.53
Both teams to score1.91

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.36
Over 2.5 goals2.09
Over 3.5 goals3.83
Andorra most2.25
Eibar most3.53

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.44
Over 8.5 corners1.75
Over 9.5 corners2.24
Over 10.5 corners3.02
Andorra most1.63
Eibar most3.53

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.13
Over 3.5 cards1.33
Over 4.5 cards1.72
Over 5.5 cards2.46
Andorra most2.64
Eibar most2.27

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.51
Over 7.5 SoT1.91
Over 8.5 SoT2.56
Over 9.5 SoT3.66
Andorra most1.54
Eibar most4.34

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.66
Over 24.5 shots2.12
Over 26.5 shots2.89
Over 28.5 shots4.20
Andorra most1.37
Eibar most4.56

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.21
Over 22.5 fouls1.40
Over 24.5 fouls1.70
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 66.2% Over 7.5 52.4% Over 8.5 39.1% Over 9.5 27.3%
Most: Andorra 64.8% Most: Eibar 23.0%
Andorra Over 4.2 50.8% Eibar Over 4.2 21.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 88.6% Over 3.5 75.2% Over 4.5 58.1%
Most: Andorra 37.9% Most: Eibar 44.0%
Andorra Over 1.8 70.7% Eibar Over 1.8 74.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Andorra clean sheet 32.5%
Eibar clean sheet 23.1%
Andorra win to nil 24.4%
Eibar win to nil 14.9%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 44.5% draw 27.2% away 28.3%
double_chance
1X 71.7% 12 72.8% X2 55.6%
dnb
home 61.1% away 38.9%
btts
yes 52.4% no 47.6%
clean_sheet
home 32.6% away 23.1%
win_to_nil
home 24.5% away 15.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.3% home_by_2 13.5% home_by_3plus 8.6%
away_by_1 16.9% away_by_2 7.9% away_by_3plus 3.5%
correct_score
0-0 8.2% 0-1 7.8% 0-2 4.7%
0-3 1.8% 0-4 0.5% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 10.4% 1-1 13.0% 1-2 6.9%
1-3 2.6% 1-4 0.7% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 8.1% 2-1 9.1% 2-2 5.1%
2-3 1.9% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 4.0% 3-1 4.4% 3-2 2.5%
3-3 0.9% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.5% 4-1 1.6% 4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.5% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.5%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.8% under_0.5 8.2% over_1.5 73.6%
under_1.5 26.4% over_2.5 47.8% under_2.5 52.2%
over_3.5 26.1% under_3.5 73.9% over_4.5 12.0%
under_4.5 87.9% over_5.5 4.8% under_5.5 95.2%
odd_even
odd 48.5% even 51.5%
team_home
over_0.5 76.9% under_0.5 23.1% over_1.5 43.1%
under_1.5 57.0% over_2.5 18.3% under_2.5 81.8%
team_away
over_0.5 67.4% under_0.5 32.6% over_1.5 30.8%
under_1.5 69.2% over_2.5 10.4% under_2.5 89.6%
most
home 44.5% draw 27.2% away 28.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 8.6% away_+2.5 91.4% home_-1.5 22.1%
away_+1.5 77.9% home_-0.5 44.5% away_+0.5 55.6%
home_+0.5 71.7% away_-0.5 28.3% home_+1.5 88.6%
away_-1.5 11.4% home_+2.5 96.5% away_-2.5 3.5%
total_exact
exact_0 8.2% exact_1 18.3% exact_2 25.8%
exact_3 21.7% exact_4 14.0% exact_5 7.2%
exact_6 3.1% exact_7plus 1.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 27.8% draw 46.3% away 25.9%
total
over_0.5 63.6% under_0.5 36.4% over_1.5 26.8%
under_1.5 73.2% over_2.5 8.2% under_2.5 91.8%
btts
yes 15.7% no 84.3%
total_exact
exact_0 36.4% exact_1 36.8% exact_2 18.6%
exact_3 6.3% exact_4plus 2.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 40.7% draw 35.2% away 24.1%
total
over_0.5 79.1% under_0.5 20.8% over_1.5 46.5%
under_1.5 53.5% over_2.5 20.8% under_2.5 79.2%
btts
yes 28.6% no 71.4%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 22.2% H/D 4.1% H/A 1.4%
D/H 18.9% D/D 16.3% D/A 11.2%
A/H 3.3% A/D 5.8% A/A 16.9%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 69.4% under_7.5 30.6% over_8.5 57.1%
under_8.5 42.9% over_9.5 44.7% under_9.5 55.4%
over_10.5 33.1% under_10.5 66.9% over_11.5 23.3%
under_11.5 76.7% over_12.5 15.6% under_12.5 84.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.2% under_3.5 24.8% over_4.5 60.1%
under_4.5 39.9% over_5.5 44.7% under_5.5 55.3%
team_away
over_3.5 52.4% under_3.5 47.6% over_4.5 34.8%
under_4.5 65.2% over_5.5 21.1% under_5.5 78.9%
most
home 61.2% draw 10.5% away 28.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.4% away_+3.5 71.6% home_-1.5 49.9%
away_+1.5 50.1% home_-0.5 61.2% away_+0.5 38.8%
home_+0.5 71.7% away_-0.5 28.3% home_+1.5 80.6%
away_-1.5 19.4% home_+3.5 92.4% away_-3.5 7.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 60.1% under_22.5 39.9% over_24.5 47.1%
under_24.5 52.9% over_26.5 34.6% under_26.5 65.4%
over_28.5 23.8% under_28.5 76.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 77.9% under_10.5 22.1% over_12.5 62.4%
under_12.5 37.6% over_14.5 45.7% under_14.5 54.3%
team_away
over_10.5 42.4% under_10.5 57.6% over_12.5 24.9%
under_12.5 75.1% over_14.5 12.9% under_14.5 87.1%
most
home 72.8% draw 5.3% away 21.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 47.6% away_+4.5 52.4% home_-2.5 60.8%
away_+2.5 39.3% home_-0.5 72.8% away_+0.5 27.2%
home_+0.5 78.1% away_-0.5 21.9% home_+2.5 86.6%
away_-2.5 13.4% home_+4.5 92.5% away_-4.5 7.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 66.2% under_6.5 33.8% over_7.5 52.4%
under_7.5 47.6% over_8.5 39.1% under_8.5 61.0%
over_9.5 27.3% under_9.5 72.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 68.6% under_3.5 31.4% over_4.5 50.8%
under_4.5 49.2% over_5.5 34.2% under_5.5 65.8%
team_away
over_3.5 38.0% under_3.5 62.1% over_4.5 21.1%
under_4.5 79.0% over_5.5 10.3% under_5.5 89.7%
most
home 64.9% draw 12.1% away 23.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 37.3% away_+2.5 62.7% home_-0.5 64.9%
away_+0.5 35.2% home_+0.5 77.0% away_-0.5 23.0%
home_+2.5 92.6% away_-2.5 7.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 88.6% under_2.5 11.4% over_3.5 75.2%
under_3.5 24.8% over_4.5 58.1% under_4.5 41.9%
over_5.5 40.6% under_5.5 59.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 70.7% under_1.5 29.3% over_2.5 45.0%
under_2.5 55.1%
team_away
over_1.5 74.3% under_1.5 25.7% over_2.5 49.5%
under_2.5 50.5%
most
home 37.9% draw 18.1% away 44.0%
handicap
home_-1.5 22.3% away_+1.5 77.7% home_-0.5 37.9%
away_+0.5 62.1% home_+0.5 56.0% away_-0.5 44.0%
home_+1.5 72.7% away_-1.5 27.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 82.4% under_20.5 17.6% over_22.5 71.5%
under_22.5 28.5% over_24.5 58.7% under_24.5 41.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 77.2% under_9.5 22.8% over_11.5 59.0%
under_11.5 41.0% over_13.5 40.0% under_13.5 60.0%
team_away
over_9.5 81.4% under_9.5 18.6% over_11.5 64.9%
under_11.5 35.1% over_13.5 46.2% under_13.5 53.8%
most
home 42.3% draw 6.7% away 51.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.1% away_+3.5 75.9% home_-0.5 42.3%
away_+0.5 57.7% home_+2.5 62.4% away_-2.5 37.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 13.6% no 86.4%
home
yes 7.4% no 92.6%
away
yes 6.6% no 93.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Andorra predictions · Eibar predictions · Segunda División

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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More on this match

Segunda DivisiónAndorraEibarTrack record