Montpellier vs Boulogne prediction & probabilities (2026-08-28)

By /

Montpellier vs Boulogne: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 28 Aug 2026

Ligue 2
Montpellier

LDDWW

Full time0-0Fri, 28 Aug 202619:00UK
Boulogne

LLDLD

Model’s top convictions

80%

Montpellier or draw

65%

Under 2.5 goals

63%

Over 1.5 goals

Full time2 of 2 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Montpellier 0-0 Boulogne
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Both teams to score
2 of 3 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Montpellier at 50.5%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 65.0% and it landed (0 goals). We called No at 60.5% and it landed.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
MontpellierWin probability
50.5%
Top 3 convictions

Montpellier or draw79.9%High probabilityPays @ 1.25
Under 2.5 goals65.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.54
Over 1.5 goals62.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.60

Model read

▾

"Montpellier or Boulogne? We publish probabilities, not certainties." The model leans Montpellier at 50% when Montpellier host Boulogne in the Ligue 2 on 28 August 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Montpellier higher (57%) than our model does. The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 35% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 40%. Form guide over the last six: Montpellier W3 D2 L1, Boulogne W0 D2 L4. The recent series reads 0 wins for Montpellier, 0 draws and 2 for Boulogne over 2 games, 2.5 goals on average. Arnaud Nordin drives the home shot volume, 1.0 on target per 90. Verdict: no bet. Conservative ev -0.090 <= 0.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners44.2%@ 2.26
Over 2.5 goals35.0%@ 2.86
Over 10.5 corners34.0%@ 2.94
Medium risk

Not both teams to score60.5%@ 1.65
Over 8.5 corners55.2%@ 1.81
Draw or Boulogne49.5%@ 2.02
Random finds

1-0 correct score16.0%@ 6.25
0-0 correct score12.9%@ 7.73
1-1 correct score12.9%@ 7.73

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Montpellier

50.5%-7.0%

Draw

29.4%+3.2%

Boulogne

20.1%+3.8%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.090 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.562.6%

Strong chance

Over 2.535.0%

Toss-up

BTTS · Yes39.5%

Toss-up

Corners markets

Over 8.555.2%

Good chance

Over 9.544.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.534.0%

Toss-up

Over 11.525.3%

Low chance

Most cornersMontpellier57.0%Boulogne32.0%

Shots markets

Over 22.552.7%

Good chance

Over 24.539.9%

Toss-up

Over 26.528.4%

Low chance

Over 28.519.0%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.562.6%2.535.0%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.562.6%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

MontpellierLDDWW
BoulogneLLDLD

Last 2 meetings: Montpellier 0 · 0 draws · Boulogne 2 · 2.5 goals/game.

2026-01-16Boulogne 1-0 Montpellier
2025-09-23Montpellier 1-3 Boulogne

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

MontpellierBoulogne
League position#2 of 18#15 of 18
Record W-D-L2-1-00-2-1
Current streakW2D1
Record, home vs away0-1-00-0-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.30 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 37% · BTTS in 44%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Arnaud NordinMontpellier · key player
To score24.8%

@ 4.03

1+ on target54.3%

@ 1.84

2+ shots53.3%

@ 1.88

Shots/90 2.19SoT/90 0.96Goals/90 0.35
Mousa Al TamariMontpellier · in form
To score14.4%

@ 6.94

1+ on target53.6%

@ 1.87

2+ shots57.3%

@ 1.75

Shots/90 2.23SoT/90 0.89Goals/90 0.18
Andy DelortMontpellier · in form
To score0.0%

@ ·

1+ on target48.8%

@ 2.05

2+ shots56.4%

@ 1.77

Shots/90 2.4SoT/90 0.85Goals/90 0

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Montpellier win1.601.98
Draw3.303.40
Boulogne win5.004.98
Over 2.5 goals2.052.86
Under 2.5 goals1.751.54

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Montpellier win1.98
Draw3.41
Boulogne win4.97
Both teams to score2.53

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.15
Over 1.5 goals1.60
Over 2.5 goals2.86
Over 3.5 goals6.20
Montpellier most1.98
Boulogne most4.97

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.45
Over 8.5 corners1.76
Over 9.5 corners2.24
Over 10.5 corners3.00
Montpellier most1.75
Boulogne most3.12

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.32
Over 3.5 cards1.78
Over 4.5 cards2.73
Over 5.5 cards4.73
Montpellier most2.77
Boulogne most2.32

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.50
Over 7.5 SoT1.85
Over 8.5 SoT2.40
Over 9.5 SoT3.28
Montpellier most1.94
Boulogne most2.80

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.90
Over 24.5 shots2.51
Over 26.5 shots3.52
Over 28.5 shots5.25
Montpellier most1.65
Boulogne most3.01

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.07
Over 22.5 fouls1.14
Over 24.5 fouls1.27
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 66.8% Over 7.5 54.1% Over 8.5 41.6% Over 9.5 30.5%
Most: Montpellier 51.5% Most: Boulogne 35.7%
Montpellier Over 4.2 43.2% Boulogne Over 4.2 32.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 75.8% Over 3.5 56.2% Over 4.5 36.7%
Most: Montpellier 36.1% Most: Boulogne 43.2%
Montpellier Over 1.8 56.5% Boulogne Over 1.8 61.5%

Montpellier: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Arnaud Nordin 2.19 0.96 0.35 54.3% 53.3% 24.8%
Mousa Al Tamari 2.23 0.89 0.18 53.6% 57.3% 14.4%
Andy Delort 2.4 0.85 0 48.8% 56.4% 0.0%
Tanguy Coulibaly 1.8 0.78 0.18 41.8% 35.6% 11.8%
Akor Adams 1.93 0.74 0.28 46.2% 48.0% 20.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Montpellier clean sheet 47.4%
Boulogne clean sheet 25.9%
Montpellier win to nil 34.4%
Boulogne win to nil 13.0%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 50.5% draw 29.4% away 20.1%
double_chance
1X 79.9% 12 70.6% X2 49.5%
dnb
home 71.5% away 28.5%
btts
yes 39.5% no 60.5%
clean_sheet
home 47.5% away 25.9%
win_to_nil
home 34.6% away 13.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 25.9% home_by_2 15.5% home_by_3plus 9.2%
away_by_1 14.0% away_by_2 4.8% away_by_3plus 1.4%
correct_score
0-0 12.9% 0-1 8.5% 0-2 3.4%
0-3 0.9% 0-4 0.2% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 16.0% 1-1 12.9% 1-2 4.6%
1-3 1.2% 1-4 0.2% 1-5 0.0%
2-0 11.2% 2-1 8.3% 2-2 3.1%
2-3 0.8% 2-4 0.2% 2-5 0.0%
3-0 5.1% 3-1 3.7% 3-2 1.4%
3-3 0.4% 3-4 0.1% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 1.7% 4-1 1.3% 4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.1% 4-4 0.0% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.5% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.3%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 0.0% p 16.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 87.1% under_0.5 12.9% over_1.5 62.6%
under_1.5 37.5% over_2.5 35.0% under_2.5 65.0%
over_3.5 16.1% under_3.5 83.9% over_4.5 6.2%
under_4.5 93.8% over_5.5 2.1% under_5.5 97.9%
odd_even
odd 48.0% even 52.0%
team_home
over_0.5 74.1% under_0.5 25.9% over_1.5 39.1%
under_1.5 60.9% over_2.5 15.5% under_2.5 84.5%
team_away
over_0.5 52.5% under_0.5 47.5% over_1.5 17.3%
under_1.5 82.7% over_2.5 4.1% under_2.5 95.9%
most
home 50.5% draw 29.4% away 20.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 9.2% away_+2.5 90.8% home_-1.5 24.7%
away_+1.5 75.3% home_-0.5 50.5% away_+0.5 49.5%
home_+0.5 79.9% away_-0.5 20.1% home_+1.5 93.9%
away_-1.5 6.1% home_+2.5 98.6% away_-2.5 1.4%
total_exact
exact_0 12.9% exact_1 24.5% exact_2 27.6%
exact_3 18.9% exact_4 9.9% exact_5 4.2%
exact_6 1.5% exact_7plus 0.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 36.3% draw 51.4% away 12.4%
total
over_0.5 54.6% under_0.5 45.4% over_1.5 18.8%
under_1.5 81.2% over_2.5 4.6% under_2.5 95.4%
btts
yes 8.8% no 91.2%
total_exact
exact_0 45.4% exact_1 35.9% exact_2 14.2%
exact_3 3.7% exact_4plus 0.9%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 40.4% draw 41.3% away 18.3%
total
over_0.5 69.3% under_0.5 30.7% over_1.5 33.1%
under_1.5 67.0% over_2.5 11.6% under_2.5 88.4%
btts
yes 18.2% no 81.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 31.0% H/D 4.3% H/A 1.0%
D/H 20.8% D/D 21.2% D/A 9.4%
A/H 1.5% A/D 3.2% A/A 7.7%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 69.0% under_7.5 31.0% over_8.5 56.9%
under_8.5 43.1% over_9.5 44.7% under_9.5 55.4%
over_10.5 33.3% under_10.5 66.7% over_11.5 23.7%
under_11.5 76.3% over_12.5 16.0% under_12.5 84.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.7% under_3.5 27.3% over_4.5 57.2%
under_4.5 42.8% over_5.5 41.9% under_5.5 58.1%
team_away
over_3.5 55.5% under_3.5 44.5% over_4.5 38.0%
under_4.5 62.0% over_5.5 23.9% under_5.5 76.1%
most
home 57.2% draw 10.8% away 32.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.3% away_+3.5 74.7% home_-1.5 45.8%
away_+1.5 54.2% home_-0.5 57.2% away_+0.5 42.8%
home_+0.5 68.0% away_-0.5 32.0% home_+1.5 77.4%
away_-1.5 22.6% home_+3.5 90.6% away_-3.5 9.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 52.7% under_22.5 47.3% over_24.5 39.9%
under_24.5 60.1% over_26.5 28.4% under_26.5 71.6%
over_28.5 19.0% under_28.5 81.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 66.2% under_10.5 33.8% over_12.5 48.7%
under_12.5 51.3% over_14.5 32.5% under_14.5 67.5%
team_away
over_10.5 47.2% under_10.5 52.8% over_12.5 29.4%
under_12.5 70.6% over_14.5 16.4% under_14.5 83.6%
most
home 60.5% draw 6.3% away 33.2%
handicap
home_-4.5 34.5% away_+4.5 65.5% home_-2.5 47.3%
away_+2.5 52.7% home_-0.5 60.5% away_+0.5 39.5%
home_+0.5 66.8% away_-0.5 33.2% home_+2.5 77.9%
away_-2.5 22.1% home_+4.5 86.4% away_-4.5 13.6%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 66.8% under_6.5 33.2% over_7.5 54.1%
under_7.5 45.9% over_8.5 41.6% under_8.5 58.4%
over_9.5 30.5% under_9.5 69.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 60.5% under_3.5 39.5% over_4.5 43.3%
under_4.5 56.8% over_5.5 28.5% under_5.5 71.5%
team_away
over_3.5 49.4% under_3.5 50.6% over_4.5 32.0%
under_4.5 68.0% over_5.5 19.0% under_5.5 81.0%
most
home 51.5% draw 12.8% away 35.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 27.1% away_+2.5 73.0% home_-0.5 51.5%
away_+0.5 48.5% home_+0.5 64.3% away_-0.5 35.7%
home_+2.5 84.6% away_-2.5 15.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 75.9% under_2.5 24.2% over_3.5 56.2%
under_3.5 43.8% over_4.5 36.7% under_4.5 63.3%
over_5.5 21.1% under_5.5 78.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 56.5% under_1.5 43.5% over_2.5 29.5%
under_2.5 70.5%
team_away
over_1.5 61.5% under_1.5 38.5% over_2.5 34.5%
under_2.5 65.5%
most
home 36.1% draw 20.7% away 43.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.1% away_+1.5 80.9% home_-0.5 36.1%
away_+0.5 63.9% home_+0.5 56.8% away_-0.5 43.2%
home_+1.5 75.5% away_-1.5 24.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 93.8% under_20.5 6.2% over_22.5 87.8%
under_22.5 12.2% over_24.5 78.9% under_24.5 21.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 89.9% under_9.5 10.1% over_11.5 77.2%
under_11.5 22.8% over_13.5 59.8% under_13.5 40.2%
team_away
over_9.5 89.3% under_9.5 10.7% over_11.5 76.1%
under_11.5 23.8% over_13.5 58.4% under_13.5 41.6%
most
home 47.6% draw 6.8% away 45.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.5% away_+3.5 71.5% home_-0.5 47.6%
away_+0.5 52.4% home_+2.5 67.4% away_-2.5 32.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 21.7% no 78.3%
home
yes 14.8% no 85.2%
away
yes 8.1% no 91.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Montpellier predictions · Boulogne predictions · Ligue 2

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets

More on this match

Ligue 2MontpellierBoulogneTrack record