Laval vs Grenoble: model prediction
Ligue 2Laval or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Draw or Grenoble
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Laval at 40.5%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 58.7% and it missed (3 goals). We called No at 52.2% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Laval versus Grenoble on 28 August 2026 tilts towards Laval in our numbers (40%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. Three things stand out in the data: 1) The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Laval at 46%. Caution noted. 2) The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 41% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 48%. 3) Form guide over the last six: Laval W2 D2 L2, Grenoble W2 D2 L2. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Laval, 1 draws and 2 for Grenoble at 3.0 goals per match. Discipline says sit it out: conservative EV -0.035 <= 0.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
40.5%-5.2%
29.2%-0.3%
30.3%+5.4%
conservative EV -0.035 <= 0
Goals markets
Strong chance
Toss-up
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Laval 2 · 1 draws · Grenoble 2 · 3.0 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
League averages this season: 2.30 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 37% · BTTS in 44%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 71.4% | Over 7.5 | 59.4% | Over 8.5 | 47.1% | Over 9.5 | 35.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Laval | 57.2% | Most: Grenoble | 30.8% | ||||
| Laval Over 4.2 | 50.9% | Grenoble Over 4.2 | 31.7% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 70.6% | Over 3.5 | 49.5% | Over 4.5 | 30.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Laval | 38.0% | Most: Grenoble | 40.3% | ||
| Laval Over 1.8 | 53.6% | Grenoble Over 1.8 | 55.3% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Laval clean sheet | 34.5% |
|---|---|
| Grenoble clean sheet | 28.0% |
| Laval win to nil | 24.1% |
| Grenoble win to nil | 17.7% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 40.5% | draw | 29.2% | away | 30.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 69.8% | 12 | 70.8% | X2 | 59.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 57.3% | away | 42.7% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 47.8% | no | 52.2% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 34.5% | away | 28.0% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 24.2% | away | 17.7% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.1% | home_by_2 | 12.0% | home_by_3plus | 6.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 18.4% | away_by_2 | 8.4% | away_by_3plus | 3.5% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 10.3% | 0-1 | 9.6% | 0-2 | 5.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.9% | 0-4 | 0.5% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 11.7% | 1-1 | 13.7% | 1-2 | 7.0% |
| 1-3 | 2.5% | 1-4 | 0.7% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 7.8% | 2-1 | 8.3% | 2-2 | 4.4% |
| 2-3 | 1.6% | 2-4 | 0.4% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 3.3% | 3-1 | 3.5% | 3-2 | 1.9% |
| 3-3 | 0.7% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 1.1% | 4-1 | 1.1% | 4-2 | 0.6% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.3% | 5-1 | 0.3% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.3% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 89.7% | under_0.5 | 10.3% | over_1.5 | 68.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 31.6% | over_2.5 | 41.3% | under_2.5 | 58.7% |
| over_3.5 | 20.8% | under_3.5 | 79.2% | over_4.5 | 8.8% |
| under_4.5 | 91.2% | over_5.5 | 3.2% | under_5.5 | 96.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.2% | even | 51.8% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 72.0% | under_0.5 | 28.0% | over_1.5 | 36.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 63.7% | over_2.5 | 13.7% | under_2.5 | 86.3% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 65.5% | under_0.5 | 34.5% | over_1.5 | 28.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 71.3% | over_2.5 | 9.2% | under_2.5 | 90.8% |
most
| home | 40.5% | draw | 29.2% | away | 30.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 6.4% | away_+2.5 | 93.6% | home_-1.5 | 18.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 81.6% | home_-0.5 | 40.5% | away_+0.5 | 59.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 69.8% | away_-0.5 | 30.3% | home_+1.5 | 88.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 11.9% | home_+2.5 | 96.5% | away_-2.5 | 3.5% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 10.3% | exact_1 | 21.3% | exact_2 | 27.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 20.5% | exact_4 | 12.0% | exact_5 | 5.6% |
| exact_6 | 2.2% | exact_7plus | 1.0% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 29.1% | draw | 49.1% | away | 21.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 59.5% | under_0.5 | 40.5% | over_1.5 | 22.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 77.1% | over_2.5 | 6.3% | under_2.5 | 93.7% |
btts
| yes | 13.0% | no | 87.0% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 40.5% | exact_1 | 36.6% | exact_2 | 16.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 5.0% | exact_4plus | 1.4% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 33.0% | draw | 38.9% | away | 28.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 74.4% | under_0.5 | 25.7% | over_1.5 | 39.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.6% | over_2.5 | 15.7% | under_2.5 | 84.3% |
btts
| yes | 24.3% | no | 75.7% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 22.3% | H/D | 5.0% | H/A | 1.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 16.2% | D/D | 19.1% | D/A | 13.8% |
| A/H | 1.8% | A/D | 4.4% | A/A | 15.6% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 72.0% | under_7.5 | 28.0% | over_8.5 | 60.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 39.6% | over_9.5 | 48.3% | under_9.5 | 51.7% |
| over_10.5 | 36.8% | under_10.5 | 63.2% | over_11.5 | 26.7% |
| under_11.5 | 73.3% | over_12.5 | 18.5% | under_12.5 | 81.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 74.9% | under_3.5 | 25.1% | over_4.5 | 60.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 40.0% | over_5.5 | 44.8% | under_5.5 | 55.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 57.3% | under_3.5 | 42.7% | over_4.5 | 39.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.1% | over_5.5 | 25.5% | under_5.5 | 74.5% |
most
| home | 57.9% | draw | 10.5% | away | 31.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.4% | away_+3.5 | 73.6% | home_-1.5 | 46.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 53.2% | home_-0.5 | 57.9% | away_+0.5 | 42.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.4% | away_-0.5 | 31.6% | home_+1.5 | 77.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 22.4% | home_+3.5 | 90.6% | away_-3.5 | 9.4% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 52.1% | under_22.5 | 47.9% | over_24.5 | 39.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 60.8% | over_26.5 | 27.8% | under_26.5 | 72.2% |
| over_28.5 | 18.5% | under_28.5 | 81.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 66.5% | under_10.5 | 33.5% | over_12.5 | 49.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 51.0% | over_14.5 | 32.8% | under_14.5 | 67.3% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 45.8% | under_10.5 | 54.2% | over_12.5 | 28.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 71.8% | over_14.5 | 15.5% | under_14.5 | 84.5% |
most
| home | 61.6% | draw | 6.2% | away | 32.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 35.5% | away_+4.5 | 64.5% | home_-2.5 | 48.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 51.6% | home_-0.5 | 61.6% | away_+0.5 | 38.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.8% | away_-0.5 | 32.2% | home_+2.5 | 78.8% |
| away_-2.5 | 21.2% | home_+4.5 | 87.1% | away_-4.5 | 12.9% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 71.4% | under_6.5 | 28.6% | over_7.5 | 59.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 40.6% | over_8.5 | 47.1% | under_8.5 | 52.9% |
| over_9.5 | 35.6% | under_9.5 | 64.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 67.3% | under_3.5 | 32.7% | over_4.5 | 50.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 49.2% | over_5.5 | 35.6% | under_5.5 | 64.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 49.0% | under_3.5 | 51.0% | over_4.5 | 31.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 68.3% | over_5.5 | 18.7% | under_5.5 | 81.3% |
most
| home | 57.2% | draw | 12.0% | away | 30.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 32.8% | away_+2.5 | 67.2% | home_-0.5 | 57.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 42.8% | home_+0.5 | 69.2% | away_-0.5 | 30.8% |
| home_+2.5 | 87.2% | away_-2.5 | 12.8% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 70.6% | under_2.5 | 29.5% | over_3.5 | 49.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 50.5% | over_4.5 | 30.3% | under_4.5 | 69.7% |
| over_5.5 | 16.2% | under_5.5 | 83.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 53.6% | under_1.5 | 46.4% | over_2.5 | 26.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 73.2% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 55.3% | under_1.5 | 44.8% | over_2.5 | 28.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 71.7% |
most
| home | 38.0% | draw | 21.8% | away | 40.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 19.8% | away_+1.5 | 80.2% | home_-0.5 | 38.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 62.0% | home_+0.5 | 59.7% | away_-0.5 | 40.3% |
| home_+1.5 | 78.5% | away_-1.5 | 21.5% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 87.2% | under_20.5 | 12.8% | over_22.5 | 77.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 22.5% | over_24.5 | 65.1% | under_24.5 | 34.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 80.5% | under_9.5 | 19.5% | over_11.5 | 62.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 37.6% | over_13.5 | 42.4% | under_13.5 | 57.6% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 86.3% | under_9.5 | 13.7% | over_11.5 | 71.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 28.9% | over_13.5 | 52.2% | under_13.5 | 47.8% |
most
| home | 39.7% | draw | 6.9% | away | 53.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 21.5% | away_+3.5 | 78.5% | home_-0.5 | 39.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 60.3% | home_+2.5 | 60.6% | away_-2.5 | 39.4% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 14.8% | no | 85.2% |
|---|
home
| yes | 8.1% | no | 91.9% |
|---|
away
| yes | 7.3% | no | 92.7% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Laval predictions · Grenoble predictions · Ligue 2
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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