Crawley Town vs Bristol Rvs: model prediction
League TwoOver 1.5 goals
Draw or Bristol Rvs
Over 8.5 corners
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Bristol Rvs at 39.0%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 50.2% and it landed (2 goals). We called Yes at 54.7% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
The probabilities barely separate Crawley Town and Bristol Rvs on 29 August 2026: Bristol Rvs nose ahead at 39%. Three angles decide this preview: 1) The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Bristol Rvs at 46%. Caution noted. 2) Totals sit close to the fence: 50% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 55%. 3) Recent form reads W1 D3 L2 for Crawley Town against W4 D1 L1 for Bristol Rvs. The recent series reads 1 wins for Crawley Town, 0 draws and 4 for Bristol Rvs over 5 games, 3.0 goals on average. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.27).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
33.8%+7.2%
27.2%-0.7%
39.0%-6.5%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.27)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Crawley Town 1 · 0 draws · Bristol Rvs 4 · 3.0 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
League averages this season: 2.42 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 46% · BTTS in 46%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 66.7% | Over 7.5 | 54.2% | Over 8.5 | 41.8% | Over 9.5 | 30.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Crawley Town | 48.3% | Most: Bristol Rvs | 38.9% | ||||
| Crawley Town Over 4.2 | 41.2% | Bristol Rvs Over 4.2 | 34.5% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 78.3% | Over 3.5 | 59.5% | Over 4.5 | 40.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Crawley Town | 33.2% | Most: Bristol Rvs | 46.8% | ||
| Crawley Town Over 1.8 | 56.4% | Bristol Rvs Over 1.8 | 65.8% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Crawley Town clean sheet | 24.9% |
|---|---|
| Bristol Rvs clean sheet | 27.9% |
| Crawley Town win to nil | 17.4% |
| Bristol Rvs win to nil | 20.3% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 33.8% | draw | 27.2% | away | 39.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 61.0% | 12 | 72.8% | X2 | 66.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 46.4% | away | 53.6% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 54.7% | no | 45.3% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 25.0% | away | 27.9% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 17.4% | away | 20.3% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 18.8% | home_by_2 | 9.9% | home_by_3plus | 5.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 20.5% | away_by_2 | 11.7% | away_by_3plus | 6.8% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 7.6% | 0-1 | 9.0% | 0-2 | 6.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 3.1% | 0-4 | 1.1% | 0-5 | 0.3% |
| 1-0 | 8.3% | 1-1 | 12.9% | 1-2 | 8.6% |
| 1-3 | 4.0% | 1-4 | 1.4% | 1-5 | 0.4% |
| 2-0 | 5.7% | 2-1 | 7.9% | 2-2 | 5.5% |
| 2-3 | 2.5% | 2-4 | 0.9% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 2.4% | 3-1 | 3.4% | 3-2 | 2.3% |
| 3-3 | 1.1% | 3-4 | 0.4% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.8% | 4-1 | 1.1% | 4-2 | 0.7% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.3% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 92.4% | under_0.5 | 7.6% | over_1.5 | 75.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 24.9% | over_2.5 | 49.8% | under_2.5 | 50.2% |
| over_3.5 | 27.8% | under_3.5 | 72.2% | over_4.5 | 13.2% |
| under_4.5 | 86.8% | over_5.5 | 5.4% | under_5.5 | 94.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 72.1% | under_0.5 | 27.9% | over_1.5 | 36.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 63.6% | over_2.5 | 13.7% | under_2.5 | 86.3% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 75.0% | under_0.5 | 25.0% | over_1.5 | 40.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 59.6% | over_2.5 | 16.4% | under_2.5 | 83.6% |
most
| home | 33.8% | draw | 27.2% | away | 39.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 5.1% | away_+2.5 | 94.9% | home_-1.5 | 15.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 85.0% | home_-0.5 | 33.8% | away_+0.5 | 66.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.0% | away_-0.5 | 39.0% | home_+1.5 | 81.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 18.5% | home_+2.5 | 93.2% | away_-2.5 | 6.8% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 7.6% | exact_1 | 17.3% | exact_2 | 25.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.0% | exact_4 | 14.6% | exact_5 | 7.8% |
| exact_6 | 3.5% | exact_7plus | 1.9% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 22.9% | draw | 50.3% | away | 26.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 57.9% | under_0.5 | 42.1% | over_1.5 | 21.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 78.5% | over_2.5 | 5.7% | under_2.5 | 94.3% |
btts
| yes | 12.3% | no | 87.7% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 42.1% | exact_1 | 36.4% | exact_2 | 15.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 4.5% | exact_4plus | 1.2% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 29.9% | draw | 32.0% | away | 38.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 84.6% | under_0.5 | 15.4% | over_1.5 | 55.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 44.2% | over_2.5 | 28.8% | under_2.5 | 71.2% |
btts
| yes | 36.7% | no | 63.3% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 15.2% | H/D | 4.8% | H/A | 2.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 15.0% | D/D | 16.1% | D/A | 19.2% |
| A/H | 2.3% | A/D | 4.6% | A/A | 20.0% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 77.5% | under_7.5 | 22.6% | over_8.5 | 67.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 33.0% | over_9.5 | 55.6% | under_9.5 | 44.4% |
| over_10.5 | 44.1% | under_10.5 | 55.9% | over_11.5 | 33.5% |
| under_11.5 | 66.5% | over_12.5 | 24.3% | under_12.5 | 75.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 74.4% | under_3.5 | 25.6% | over_4.5 | 59.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 40.5% | over_5.5 | 44.5% | under_5.5 | 55.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 67.1% | under_3.5 | 32.9% | over_4.5 | 50.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 49.3% | over_5.5 | 35.5% | under_5.5 | 64.5% |
most
| home | 50.7% | draw | 10.5% | away | 38.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 21.9% | away_+3.5 | 78.1% | home_-1.5 | 40.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 59.8% | home_-0.5 | 50.7% | away_+0.5 | 49.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.2% | away_-0.5 | 38.8% | home_+1.5 | 71.0% |
| away_-1.5 | 29.0% | home_+3.5 | 86.0% | away_-3.5 | 14.0% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 58.1% | under_22.5 | 41.9% | over_24.5 | 45.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 54.7% | over_26.5 | 33.4% | under_26.5 | 66.6% |
| over_28.5 | 23.1% | under_28.5 | 76.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 66.1% | under_10.5 | 33.9% | over_12.5 | 48.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 51.5% | over_14.5 | 32.3% | under_14.5 | 67.7% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 55.3% | under_10.5 | 44.7% | over_12.5 | 37.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 62.8% | over_14.5 | 22.4% | under_14.5 | 77.6% |
most
| home | 54.8% | draw | 6.4% | away | 38.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 29.8% | away_+4.5 | 70.2% | home_-2.5 | 41.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 58.2% | home_-0.5 | 54.8% | away_+0.5 | 45.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.2% | away_-0.5 | 38.8% | home_+2.5 | 72.9% |
| away_-2.5 | 27.1% | home_+4.5 | 82.5% | away_-4.5 | 17.5% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 66.8% | under_6.5 | 33.3% | over_7.5 | 54.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 45.8% | over_8.5 | 41.9% | under_8.5 | 58.2% |
| over_9.5 | 30.8% | under_9.5 | 69.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 58.3% | under_3.5 | 41.7% | over_4.5 | 41.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 58.8% | over_5.5 | 26.8% | under_5.5 | 73.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 51.7% | under_3.5 | 48.3% | over_4.5 | 34.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 65.5% | over_5.5 | 21.1% | under_5.5 | 78.9% |
most
| home | 48.3% | draw | 12.8% | away | 38.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 24.7% | away_+2.5 | 75.3% | home_-0.5 | 48.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 51.7% | home_+0.5 | 61.1% | away_-0.5 | 38.9% |
| home_+2.5 | 82.3% | away_-2.5 | 17.7% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 78.3% | under_2.5 | 21.7% | over_3.5 | 59.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 40.5% | over_4.5 | 40.0% | under_4.5 | 60.0% |
| over_5.5 | 23.8% | under_5.5 | 76.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 56.4% | under_1.5 | 43.6% | over_2.5 | 29.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 70.6% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 65.8% | under_1.5 | 34.2% | over_2.5 | 39.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 60.9% |
most
| home | 33.2% | draw | 20.0% | away | 46.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 17.3% | away_+1.5 | 82.8% | home_-0.5 | 33.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 66.8% | home_+0.5 | 53.2% | away_-0.5 | 46.8% |
| home_+1.5 | 72.2% | away_-1.5 | 27.8% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 75.4% | under_20.5 | 24.6% | over_22.5 | 61.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 38.4% | over_24.5 | 46.5% | under_24.5 | 53.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 58.9% | under_9.5 | 41.1% | over_11.5 | 36.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 63.8% | over_13.5 | 18.6% | under_13.5 | 81.4% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 86.0% | under_9.5 | 14.0% | over_11.5 | 70.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 29.8% | over_13.5 | 50.6% | under_13.5 | 49.4% |
most
| home | 23.5% | draw | 6.3% | away | 70.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 9.7% | away_+3.5 | 90.3% | home_-0.5 | 23.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 76.5% | home_+2.5 | 44.2% | away_-2.5 | 55.8% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 26.0% | no | 74.1% |
|---|
home
| yes | 13.1% | no | 86.9% |
|---|
away
| yes | 14.8% | no | 85.2% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Crawley Town predictions · Bristol Rvs predictions · League Two
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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