Westerlo vs Waregem: model prediction
Pro LeagueOver 1.5 goals
Draw or Waregem
Over 8.5 corners
Full time10 of 11 calls right
Our most likely call was Waregem at 42.6%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 57.0% and it landed (4 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 80.2% and it landed (4 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 65.4% and it missed (4 goals). We called Yes at 60.0% and it landed. We called Yes at 76.5% and it landed. We called Yes at 79.3% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 54.8% and it landed (11 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 51.9% and it landed (1 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 56.4% and it landed (30 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 65.2% and it landed (12 shots on target). We called No at 89.4% and it landed.
| Match data | Westerlo | Waregem |
|---|---|---|
| Goals, 1st half | 1 | 1 |
| Goals, 2nd half | 1 | 1 |
| Shots | 16 | 14 |
| Shots on target | 7 | 5 |
| Corners | 3 | 8 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 0 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 18 | 12 |
Final match data.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Our engine prices Waregem at 43% for 30 August 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Bookmakers see it the same way, 42% on Waregem, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. No strong lean on goals (57% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. The run in: Westerlo arrive W1 D0 L5, Waregem W5 D1 L0. The recent series reads 3 wins for Westerlo, 2 draws and 0 for Waregem over 5 games, 2.6 goals on average. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.003 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
32.1%-0.6%
25.3%+0.3%
42.6%+0.3%
value_gap +0.003 <= 0.03
Goals markets
High probability
Good chance
Strong chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Westerlo 3 · 2 draws · Waregem 0 · 2.6 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Westerlo
WaregemLeague averages this season: 3.29 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 67% · BTTS in 50%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 76.3% | Over 7.5 | 65.2% | Over 8.5 | 53.2% | Over 9.5 | 41.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Westerlo | 49.4% | Most: Waregem | 38.4% | ||||
| Westerlo Over 4.2 | 49.8% | Waregem Over 4.2 | 41.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 69.1% | Over 3.5 | 48.1% | Over 4.5 | 29.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Westerlo | 38.0% | Most: Waregem | 40.3% | ||
| Westerlo Over 1.8 | 52.3% | Waregem Over 1.8 | 54.0% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Westerlo clean sheet | 20.1% |
|---|---|
| Waregem clean sheet | 25.4% |
| Westerlo win to nil | 14.4% |
| Waregem win to nil | 19.7% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 32.1% | draw | 25.3% | away | 42.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 57.4% | 12 | 74.7% | X2 | 67.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 43.0% | away | 57.0% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 60.0% | no | 40.0% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 20.2% | away | 25.5% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 14.5% | away | 19.8% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 17.5% | home_by_2 | 9.4% | home_by_3plus | 5.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 20.6% | away_by_2 | 12.9% | away_by_3plus | 9.0% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 5.7% | 0-1 | 7.6% | 0-2 | 6.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 3.5% | 0-4 | 1.4% | 0-5 | 0.5% |
| 1-0 | 6.5% | 1-1 | 11.8% | 1-2 | 9.0% |
| 1-3 | 4.8% | 1-4 | 1.9% | 1-5 | 0.6% |
| 2-0 | 4.8% | 2-1 | 7.7% | 2-2 | 6.1% |
| 2-3 | 3.3% | 2-4 | 1.3% | 2-5 | 0.4% |
| 3-0 | 2.2% | 3-1 | 3.5% | 3-2 | 2.8% |
| 3-3 | 1.5% | 3-4 | 0.6% | 3-5 | 0.2% |
| 4-0 | 0.8% | 4-1 | 1.2% | 4-2 | 1.0% |
| 4-3 | 0.5% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.3% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.9% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 11.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 94.3% | under_0.5 | 5.7% | over_1.5 | 80.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 19.8% | over_2.5 | 57.0% | under_2.5 | 43.0% |
| over_3.5 | 34.6% | under_3.5 | 65.4% | over_4.5 | 18.0% |
| under_4.5 | 82.0% | over_5.5 | 8.1% | under_5.5 | 91.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.8% | even | 51.2% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 74.5% | under_0.5 | 25.5% | over_1.5 | 39.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.4% | over_2.5 | 15.8% | under_2.5 | 84.2% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 79.8% | under_0.5 | 20.2% | over_1.5 | 47.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 52.4% | over_2.5 | 21.8% | under_2.5 | 78.2% |
most
| home | 32.1% | draw | 25.3% | away | 42.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 5.2% | away_+2.5 | 94.8% | home_-1.5 | 14.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 85.4% | home_-0.5 | 32.1% | away_+0.5 | 67.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 57.4% | away_-0.5 | 42.6% | home_+1.5 | 78.0% |
| away_-1.5 | 22.0% | home_+2.5 | 91.0% | away_-2.5 | 9.0% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 5.7% | exact_1 | 14.1% | exact_2 | 23.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.4% | exact_4 | 16.6% | exact_5 | 9.9% |
| exact_6 | 4.9% | exact_7plus | 3.2% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 25.8% | draw | 37.3% | away | 36.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 76.5% | under_0.5 | 23.5% | over_1.5 | 42.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 57.6% | over_2.5 | 17.8% | under_2.5 | 82.2% |
btts
| yes | 26.1% | no | 73.9% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 23.5% | exact_1 | 34.0% | exact_2 | 24.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 11.9% | exact_4plus | 5.9% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 26.9% | draw | 35.4% | away | 37.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 79.3% | under_0.5 | 20.7% | over_1.5 | 46.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 53.4% | over_2.5 | 21.0% | under_2.5 | 79.0% |
btts
| yes | 29.3% | no | 70.7% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 17.9% | H/D | 5.2% | H/A | 2.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 10.0% | D/D | 13.2% | D/A | 14.0% |
| A/H | 2.0% | A/D | 5.3% | A/A | 29.5% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 77.5% | under_7.5 | 22.5% | over_8.5 | 66.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 33.3% | over_9.5 | 54.8% | under_9.5 | 45.2% |
| over_10.5 | 43.0% | under_10.5 | 57.0% | over_11.5 | 32.1% |
| under_11.5 | 67.9% | over_12.5 | 22.9% | under_12.5 | 77.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 76.1% | under_3.5 | 23.9% | over_4.5 | 61.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 38.6% | over_5.5 | 46.1% | under_5.5 | 53.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 64.7% | under_3.5 | 35.3% | over_4.5 | 47.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 52.3% | over_5.5 | 32.4% | under_5.5 | 67.6% |
most
| home | 53.9% | draw | 10.5% | away | 35.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.0% | away_+3.5 | 76.0% | home_-1.5 | 43.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 56.9% | home_-0.5 | 53.9% | away_+0.5 | 46.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.4% | away_-0.5 | 35.6% | home_+1.5 | 73.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 26.1% | home_+3.5 | 88.0% | away_-3.5 | 12.0% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 68.0% | under_22.5 | 32.0% | over_24.5 | 56.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 43.6% | over_26.5 | 44.6% | under_26.5 | 55.4% |
| over_28.5 | 33.5% | under_28.5 | 66.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 75.4% | under_10.5 | 24.6% | over_12.5 | 60.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 39.5% | over_14.5 | 44.8% | under_14.5 | 55.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 57.8% | under_10.5 | 42.2% | over_12.5 | 40.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 59.6% | over_14.5 | 25.8% | under_14.5 | 74.2% |
most
| home | 61.0% | draw | 5.6% | away | 33.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 37.4% | away_+4.5 | 62.6% | home_-2.5 | 49.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 50.8% | home_-0.5 | 61.0% | away_+0.5 | 39.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.7% | away_-0.5 | 33.3% | home_+2.5 | 76.8% |
| away_-2.5 | 23.2% | home_+4.5 | 84.9% | away_-4.5 | 15.1% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 76.3% | under_6.5 | 23.7% | over_7.5 | 65.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 34.8% | over_8.5 | 53.2% | under_8.5 | 46.8% |
| over_9.5 | 41.4% | under_9.5 | 58.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 66.5% | under_3.5 | 33.5% | over_4.5 | 49.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 50.2% | over_5.5 | 34.4% | under_5.5 | 65.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 59.3% | under_3.5 | 40.7% | over_4.5 | 41.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 58.2% | over_5.5 | 27.0% | under_5.5 | 73.0% |
most
| home | 49.4% | draw | 12.2% | away | 38.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 26.6% | away_+2.5 | 73.4% | home_-0.5 | 49.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 50.6% | home_+0.5 | 61.6% | away_-0.5 | 38.4% |
| home_+2.5 | 81.8% | away_-2.5 | 18.2% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 69.1% | under_2.5 | 30.9% | over_3.5 | 48.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 51.9% | over_4.5 | 29.3% | under_4.5 | 70.7% |
| over_5.5 | 15.8% | under_5.5 | 84.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 52.3% | under_1.5 | 47.7% | over_2.5 | 26.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 73.8% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 54.0% | under_1.5 | 46.0% | over_2.5 | 27.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 72.3% |
most
| home | 38.0% | draw | 21.7% | away | 40.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 19.9% | away_+1.5 | 80.1% | home_-0.5 | 38.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 62.0% | home_+0.5 | 59.7% | away_-0.5 | 40.3% |
| home_+1.5 | 78.4% | away_-1.5 | 21.6% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 65.5% | under_20.5 | 34.5% | over_22.5 | 51.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 48.7% | over_24.5 | 37.4% | under_24.5 | 62.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 64.4% | under_9.5 | 35.6% | over_11.5 | 43.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 56.2% | over_13.5 | 26.0% | under_13.5 | 74.0% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 69.8% | under_9.5 | 30.2% | over_11.5 | 50.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 50.0% | over_13.5 | 31.5% | under_13.5 | 68.5% |
most
| home | 42.1% | draw | 7.2% | away | 50.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 22.9% | away_+3.5 | 77.1% | home_-0.5 | 42.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 57.9% | home_+2.5 | 63.5% | away_-2.5 | 36.5% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 10.6% | no | 89.4% |
|---|
home
| yes | 5.1% | no | 94.9% |
|---|
away
| yes | 5.8% | no | 94.2% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Westerlo predictions · Waregem predictions · Pro League
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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