Antwerp vs St Truiden prediction & probabilities (2026-08-30)

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Antwerp vs St Truiden: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 29 Aug 2026

Pro League
Antwerp

DWWWD

Full time1-4Sun, 30 Aug 202615:00UK
St Truiden

DLWDD

Model’s top convictions

76%

Over 1.5 goals

67%

Antwerp or draw

63%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time8 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Antwerp 1-4 St Truiden
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
8 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Antwerp at 39.9%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 51.5% and it landed (5 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 76.4% and it landed (5 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 70.6% and it missed (5 goals). We called Yes at 56.0% and it landed. We called Yes at 69.2% and it landed. We called Yes at 78.2% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 54.3% and it missed (7 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 51.0% and it missed (4 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 57.6% and it landed (37 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 67.9% and it landed (15 shots on target). We called No at 73.9% and it landed.

Match data Antwerp St Truiden
Goals, 1st half 0 1
Goals, 2nd half 1 3
Shots 18 19
Shots on target 8 7
Corners 6 1
Yellow cards 1 3
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 15 8

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
AntwerpWin probability
39.9%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals76.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.31
Antwerp or draw66.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.50
Over 8.5 corners63.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.58

Model read

▾

Antwerp versus St Truiden in the Pro League on 30 August 2026 is finely balanced. Antwerp edge it at 40%, but the gap to the field is slim. The numbers that frame it: • Bookmakers see it the same way, 38% on Antwerp, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. • Totals sit close to the fence: 52% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 56%. • Recent form reads W3 D2 L1 for Antwerp against W1 D3 L2 for St Truiden. • Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 3 wins for Antwerp, 1 draws and 1 for St Truiden, averaging 2.8 goals a game. Fatigue may matter, with Antwerp 8 days shorter on recovery than St Truiden. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.016 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners42.2%@ 2.37
St Truiden win33.4%@ 2.99
Over 11.5 corners32.7%@ 3.06
Medium risk

Draw or St Truiden60.2%@ 1.66
Both teams to score56.0%@ 1.79
Over 9.5 corners52.6%@ 1.90
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.7%@ 7.87
1-0 correct score8.7%@ 11.47
2-1 correct score8.7%@ 11.49

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Antwerp

39.9%+1.6%

Draw

26.8%-0.3%

St Truiden

33.4%-1.2%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.016 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.576.4%

Strong chance

Over 2.551.5%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes56.0%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.563.4%

Strong chance

Over 9.552.6%

Good chance

Over 10.542.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.532.7%

Toss-up

Most cornersAntwerp53.9%St Truiden35.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.569.0%

Strong chance

Over 24.557.6%

Good chance

Over 26.545.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.534.6%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.576.4%2.551.5%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.576.4%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

AntwerpDWWWD
St TruidenDLWDD

Last 5 meetings: Antwerp 3 · 1 draws · St Truiden 1 · 2.8 goals/game.

2026-02-28Antwerp 1-0 St Truiden
2025-11-02St Truiden 1-0 Antwerp
2025-01-24St Truiden 1-1 Antwerp
2024-08-11Antwerp 6-1 St Truiden
2024-03-03Antwerp 3-0 St Truiden

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

AntwerpSt Truiden
League position#4 of 18#12 of 18
Record W-D-L2-1-00-2-0
Current streakD1D2
Record, home vs away1-1-00-1-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.29 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 67% · BTTS in 50%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Antwerp win2.452.51
Draw3.403.73
St Truiden win2.702.99
Over 2.5 goals1.801.94
Under 2.5 goals2.002.06

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Antwerp win2.51
Draw3.74
St Truiden win2.99
Both teams to score1.78

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.31
Over 2.5 goals1.94
Over 3.5 goals3.40
Antwerp most2.51
St Truiden most2.99

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.30
Over 8.5 corners1.51
Over 9.5 corners1.84
Over 10.5 corners2.36
Antwerp most1.85
St Truiden most2.82

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.43
Over 3.5 cards2.04
Over 4.5 cards3.31
Over 5.5 cards6.08
Antwerp most3.05
St Truiden most2.18

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.27
Over 7.5 SoT1.47
Over 8.5 SoT1.78
Over 9.5 SoT2.25
Antwerp most1.97
St Truiden most2.69

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.45
Over 24.5 shots1.74
Over 26.5 shots2.18
Over 28.5 shots2.89
Antwerp most1.64
St Truiden most3.01

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.72
Over 22.5 fouls2.31
Over 24.5 fouls3.33
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 78.5% Over 7.5 67.9% Over 8.5 56.2% Over 9.5 44.4%
Most: Antwerp 50.9% Most: St Truiden 37.2%
Antwerp Over 4.2 52.8% St Truiden Over 4.2 43.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 69.8% Over 3.5 49.0% Over 4.5 30.2%
Most: Antwerp 32.8% Most: St Truiden 45.9%
Antwerp Over 1.8 48.8% St Truiden Over 1.8 58.4%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Antwerp clean sheet 27.2%
St Truiden clean sheet 23.7%
Antwerp win to nil 20.1%
St Truiden win to nil 16.6%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 39.9% draw 26.8% away 33.4%
double_chance
1X 66.6% 12 73.3% X2 60.2%
dnb
home 54.4% away 45.6%
btts
yes 56.0% no 44.0%
clean_sheet
home 27.3% away 23.7%
win_to_nil
home 20.2% away 16.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1 20.6% home_by_2 12.0% home_by_3plus 7.3%
away_by_1 18.5% away_by_2 9.8% away_by_3plus 5.1%
correct_score
0-0 7.1% 0-1 7.8% 0-2 5.5%
0-3 2.4% 0-4 0.8% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 8.7% 1-1 12.7% 1-2 7.9%
1-3 3.4% 1-4 1.1% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 6.7% 2-1 8.7% 2-2 5.7%
2-3 2.4% 2-4 0.8% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 3.2% 3-1 4.2% 3-2 2.7%
3-3 1.2% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.2% 4-1 1.5% 4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.6%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.7%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.9% under_0.5 7.1% over_1.5 76.4%
under_1.5 23.6% over_2.5 51.5% under_2.5 48.5%
over_3.5 29.4% under_3.5 70.6% over_4.5 14.2%
under_4.5 85.8% over_5.5 6.0% under_5.5 94.0%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 76.3% under_0.5 23.7% over_1.5 42.1%
under_1.5 57.9% over_2.5 17.6% under_2.5 82.4%
team_away
over_0.5 72.7% under_0.5 27.3% over_1.5 37.2%
under_1.5 62.8% over_2.5 14.2% under_2.5 85.8%
most
home 39.9% draw 26.8% away 33.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 7.3% away_+2.5 92.7% home_-1.5 19.3%
away_+1.5 80.7% home_-0.5 39.9% away_+0.5 60.1%
home_+0.5 66.6% away_-0.5 33.4% home_+1.5 85.1%
away_-1.5 14.9% home_+2.5 94.9% away_-2.5 5.1%
total_exact
exact_0 7.1% exact_1 16.5% exact_2 24.9%
exact_3 22.1% exact_4 15.1% exact_5 8.3%
exact_6 3.8% exact_7plus 2.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 27.9% draw 42.4% away 29.6%
total
over_0.5 69.2% under_0.5 30.8% over_1.5 32.9%
under_1.5 67.1% over_2.5 11.6% under_2.5 88.4%
btts
yes 19.8% no 80.2%
total_exact
exact_0 30.8% exact_1 36.3% exact_2 21.4%
exact_3 8.4% exact_4plus 3.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 36.0% draw 36.3% away 27.7%
total
over_0.5 78.2% under_0.5 21.8% over_1.5 45.0%
under_1.5 55.0% over_2.5 19.7% under_2.5 80.3%
btts
yes 28.2% no 71.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 21.7% H/D 4.5% H/A 1.8%
D/H 15.3% D/D 15.4% D/A 11.8%
A/H 2.9% A/D 5.9% A/A 20.9%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 77.1% under_7.5 23.0% over_8.5 66.2%
under_8.5 33.8% over_9.5 54.3% under_9.5 45.7%
over_10.5 42.4% under_10.5 57.6% over_11.5 31.6%
under_11.5 68.4% over_12.5 22.4% under_12.5 77.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.9% under_3.5 24.1% over_4.5 61.1%
under_4.5 38.9% over_5.5 45.8% under_5.5 54.2%
team_away
over_3.5 64.3% under_3.5 35.7% over_4.5 47.2%
under_4.5 52.8% over_5.5 32.0% under_5.5 68.1%
most
home 54.0% draw 10.5% away 35.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.0% away_+3.5 76.0% home_-1.5 43.2%
away_+1.5 56.8% home_-0.5 54.0% away_+0.5 46.0%
home_+0.5 64.5% away_-0.5 35.5% home_+1.5 74.0%
away_-1.5 26.0% home_+3.5 88.1% away_-3.5 11.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 69.0% under_22.5 31.0% over_24.5 57.6%
under_24.5 42.4% over_26.5 45.8% under_26.5 54.2%
over_28.5 34.6% under_28.5 65.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 76.1% under_10.5 23.9% over_12.5 61.4%
under_12.5 38.7% over_14.5 45.8% under_14.5 54.3%
team_away
over_10.5 58.6% under_10.5 41.4% over_12.5 41.3%
under_12.5 58.7% over_14.5 26.5% under_14.5 73.5%
most
home 61.1% draw 5.6% away 33.3%
handicap
home_-4.5 37.6% away_+4.5 62.4% home_-2.5 49.3%
away_+2.5 50.7% home_-0.5 61.1% away_+0.5 38.9%
home_+0.5 66.7% away_-0.5 33.3% home_+2.5 76.8%
away_-2.5 23.2% home_+4.5 84.9% away_-4.5 15.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 78.5% under_6.5 21.5% over_7.5 67.9%
under_7.5 32.2% over_8.5 56.2% under_8.5 43.8%
over_9.5 44.5% under_9.5 55.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 69.2% under_3.5 30.8% over_4.5 52.8%
under_4.5 47.2% over_5.5 37.4% under_5.5 62.6%
team_away
over_3.5 60.4% under_3.5 39.6% over_4.5 43.0%
under_4.5 57.1% over_5.5 28.1% under_5.5 71.9%
most
home 50.9% draw 11.9% away 37.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 28.1% away_+2.5 71.9% home_-0.5 50.9%
away_+0.5 49.1% home_+0.5 62.8% away_-0.5 37.2%
home_+2.5 82.4% away_-2.5 17.7%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 69.8% under_2.5 30.2% over_3.5 49.0%
under_3.5 51.0% over_4.5 30.2% under_4.5 69.8%
over_5.5 16.5% under_5.5 83.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 48.8% under_1.5 51.2% over_2.5 23.2%
under_2.5 76.9%
team_away
over_1.5 58.4% under_1.5 41.6% over_2.5 31.9%
under_2.5 68.1%
most
home 32.8% draw 21.3% away 45.9%
handicap
home_-1.5 16.3% away_+1.5 83.8% home_-0.5 32.8%
away_+0.5 67.2% home_+0.5 54.1% away_-0.5 45.9%
home_+1.5 73.8% away_-1.5 26.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 58.0% under_20.5 42.0% over_22.5 43.4%
under_22.5 56.6% over_24.5 30.0% under_24.5 70.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 61.3% under_9.5 38.7% over_11.5 40.5%
under_11.5 59.6% over_13.5 23.2% under_13.5 76.8%
team_away
over_9.5 62.9% under_9.5 37.1% over_11.5 42.2%
under_11.5 57.8% over_13.5 24.7% under_13.5 75.3%
most
home 45.0% draw 7.4% away 47.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.7% away_+3.5 75.3% home_-0.5 45.0%
away_+0.5 55.0% home_+2.5 66.8% away_-2.5 33.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 26.2% no 73.9%
home
yes 13.5% no 86.5%
away
yes 14.6% no 85.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Antwerp predictions · St Truiden predictions · Pro League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Pro LeagueAntwerpSt TruidenTrack record