Kortrijk vs Charleroi: model prediction
Pro LeagueDraw or Charleroi
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Charleroi at 48.1%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 53.7% and it missed (4 goals). We called Yes at 50.3% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
A measured edge to Charleroi: 48% is the model's line for this Pro League meeting on 29 August 2026. The market broadly agrees, pricing Charleroi at 49%. Totals sit close to the fence: 46% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 50%. Schedule edge: Kortrijk have had 7 more days of rest than Charleroi. Kortrijk are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Form guide over the last six: Kortrijk W2 D1 L3, Charleroi W4 D1 L1. The recent series reads 1 wins for Kortrijk, 0 draws and 4 for Charleroi over 5 games, 2.0 goals on average. The engine passes on this one (value_gap +0.006 <= 0.03).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
24.9%+0.6%
27.1%+0.5%
48.1%-1.0%
value_gap +0.006 <= 0.03
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Kortrijk 1 · 0 draws · Charleroi 4 · 2.0 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Kortrijk
CharleroiLeague averages this season: 3.29 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 67% · BTTS in 50%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 72.7% | Over 7.5 | 60.7% | Over 8.5 | 48.4% | Over 9.5 | 36.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Kortrijk | 44.9% | Most: Charleroi | 42.5% | ||||
| Kortrijk Over 4.2 | 43.3% | Charleroi Over 4.2 | 41.6% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 67.0% | Over 3.5 | 45.6% | Over 4.5 | 27.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Kortrijk | 29.3% | Most: Charleroi | 49.1% | ||
| Kortrijk Over 1.8 | 43.6% | Charleroi Over 1.8 | 58.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Kortrijk clean sheet | 22.1% |
|---|---|
| Charleroi clean sheet | 36.0% |
| Kortrijk win to nil | 13.5% |
| Charleroi win to nil | 27.4% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 24.9% | draw | 27.1% | away | 48.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 51.9% | 12 | 72.9% | X2 | 75.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 34.1% | away | 65.9% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 50.3% | no | 49.7% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 22.1% | away | 36.2% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 13.5% | away | 27.6% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 15.6% | home_by_2 | 6.7% | home_by_3plus | 2.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 23.4% | away_by_2 | 14.8% | away_by_3plus | 9.9% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.6% | 0-1 | 11.5% | 0-2 | 9.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 4.6% | 0-4 | 1.7% | 0-5 | 0.5% |
| 1-0 | 7.5% | 1-1 | 12.9% | 1-2 | 9.3% |
| 1-3 | 4.7% | 1-4 | 1.8% | 1-5 | 0.5% |
| 2-0 | 4.1% | 2-1 | 6.2% | 2-2 | 4.7% |
| 2-3 | 2.4% | 2-4 | 0.9% | 2-5 | 0.3% |
| 3-0 | 1.4% | 3-1 | 2.1% | 3-2 | 1.6% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.4% | 4-1 | 0.5% | 4-2 | 0.4% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.1% | 5-1 | 0.1% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.0% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.4% | under_0.5 | 8.6% | over_1.5 | 72.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 27.6% | over_2.5 | 46.3% | under_2.5 | 53.7% |
| over_3.5 | 24.8% | under_3.5 | 75.2% | over_4.5 | 11.3% |
| under_4.5 | 88.8% | over_5.5 | 4.4% | under_5.5 | 95.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.4% | even | 51.6% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 63.8% | under_0.5 | 36.2% | over_1.5 | 27.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 73.0% | over_2.5 | 8.3% | under_2.5 | 91.7% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 77.9% | under_0.5 | 22.1% | over_1.5 | 44.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.4% | over_2.5 | 19.4% | under_2.5 | 80.6% |
most
| home | 24.9% | draw | 27.1% | away | 48.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 2.6% | away_+2.5 | 97.4% | home_-1.5 | 9.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 90.7% | home_-0.5 | 24.9% | away_+0.5 | 75.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 51.9% | away_-0.5 | 48.1% | home_+1.5 | 75.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 24.6% | home_+2.5 | 90.1% | away_-2.5 | 9.9% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.6% | exact_1 | 19.0% | exact_2 | 26.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.5% | exact_4 | 13.6% | exact_5 | 6.9% |
| exact_6 | 2.9% | exact_7plus | 1.5% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 23.1% | draw | 42.9% | away | 34.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 68.2% | under_0.5 | 31.8% | over_1.5 | 31.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 68.3% | over_2.5 | 10.9% | under_2.5 | 89.1% |
btts
| yes | 18.6% | no | 81.4% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 31.8% | exact_1 | 36.4% | exact_2 | 20.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 8.0% | exact_4plus | 2.9% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 19.6% | draw | 37.0% | away | 43.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 75.4% | under_0.5 | 24.6% | over_1.5 | 40.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 59.1% | over_2.5 | 16.8% | under_2.5 | 83.3% |
btts
| yes | 23.5% | no | 76.5% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 14.5% | H/D | 5.5% | H/A | 3.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 8.4% | D/D | 15.9% | D/A | 18.6% |
| A/H | 1.1% | A/D | 4.0% | A/A | 28.9% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 79.3% | under_7.5 | 20.7% | over_8.5 | 68.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 31.1% | over_9.5 | 57.4% | under_9.5 | 42.6% |
| over_10.5 | 45.6% | under_10.5 | 54.4% | over_11.5 | 34.5% |
| under_11.5 | 65.5% | over_12.5 | 25.0% | under_12.5 | 75.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 74.2% | under_3.5 | 25.8% | over_4.5 | 58.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 41.1% | over_5.5 | 43.5% | under_5.5 | 56.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 70.1% | under_3.5 | 29.9% | over_4.5 | 54.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 46.0% | over_5.5 | 38.5% | under_5.5 | 61.5% |
most
| home | 48.1% | draw | 10.6% | away | 41.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 20.0% | away_+3.5 | 80.0% | home_-1.5 | 37.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 62.3% | home_-0.5 | 48.1% | away_+0.5 | 51.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 58.6% | away_-0.5 | 41.4% | home_+1.5 | 68.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 31.4% | home_+3.5 | 84.4% | away_-3.5 | 15.6% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 68.7% | under_22.5 | 31.3% | over_24.5 | 57.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 42.7% | over_26.5 | 45.5% | under_26.5 | 54.5% |
| over_28.5 | 34.4% | under_28.5 | 65.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 74.0% | under_10.5 | 26.1% | over_12.5 | 58.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 41.4% | over_14.5 | 42.9% | under_14.5 | 57.1% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 61.1% | under_10.5 | 38.9% | over_12.5 | 43.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 56.1% | over_14.5 | 28.8% | under_14.5 | 71.2% |
most
| home | 57.4% | draw | 5.8% | away | 36.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 34.0% | away_+4.5 | 66.0% | home_-2.5 | 45.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 54.5% | home_-0.5 | 57.4% | away_+0.5 | 42.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.2% | away_-0.5 | 36.8% | home_+2.5 | 73.7% |
| away_-2.5 | 26.3% | home_+4.5 | 82.5% | away_-4.5 | 17.5% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 72.7% | under_6.5 | 27.3% | over_7.5 | 60.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 39.3% | over_8.5 | 48.4% | under_8.5 | 51.6% |
| over_9.5 | 36.7% | under_9.5 | 63.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 60.7% | under_3.5 | 39.3% | over_4.5 | 43.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.7% | over_5.5 | 28.4% | under_5.5 | 71.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 59.1% | under_3.5 | 40.9% | over_4.5 | 41.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 58.4% | over_5.5 | 26.8% | under_5.5 | 73.2% |
most
| home | 44.9% | draw | 12.6% | away | 42.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 22.5% | away_+2.5 | 77.5% | home_-0.5 | 44.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 55.1% | home_+0.5 | 57.5% | away_-0.5 | 42.5% |
| home_+2.5 | 79.4% | away_-2.5 | 20.7% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 67.0% | under_2.5 | 33.0% | over_3.5 | 45.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 54.4% | over_4.5 | 27.2% | under_4.5 | 72.8% |
| over_5.5 | 14.3% | under_5.5 | 85.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.9% | even | 50.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 43.6% | under_1.5 | 56.4% | over_2.5 | 19.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 80.9% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 58.5% | under_1.5 | 41.5% | over_2.5 | 32.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 68.0% |
most
| home | 29.3% | draw | 21.5% | away | 49.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 13.6% | away_+1.5 | 86.4% | home_-0.5 | 29.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 70.7% | home_+0.5 | 50.8% | away_-0.5 | 49.2% |
| home_+1.5 | 71.6% | away_-1.5 | 28.4% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 53.4% | under_20.5 | 46.6% | over_22.5 | 38.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 61.3% | over_24.5 | 25.9% | under_24.5 | 74.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 53.7% | under_9.5 | 46.3% | over_11.5 | 32.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 67.1% | over_13.5 | 17.3% | under_13.5 | 82.7% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 63.8% | under_9.5 | 36.2% | over_11.5 | 43.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 56.8% | over_13.5 | 25.5% | under_13.5 | 74.5% |
most
| home | 38.9% | draw | 7.5% | away | 53.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 19.7% | away_+3.5 | 80.4% | home_-0.5 | 38.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 61.2% | home_+2.5 | 61.3% | away_-2.5 | 38.7% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 17.5% | no | 82.5% |
|---|
home
| yes | 7.0% | no | 93.0% |
|---|
away
| yes | 11.3% | no | 88.7% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Kortrijk predictions · Charleroi predictions · Pro League
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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